Top Sportsbooks
Up to 265% in Total Bonuses from Top Rated SBG Global! Sign Up Here! |
Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com by Simon Noble
4/5/06
For this weeks Pulse, let’s switch gears and take a look at a recent phenomenon
in online gaming that’s created a buzz on the forums and generated tremendous
betting interest at the Pinnacle Sportsbook – American Idol.
No other “event” at Pinnacle Sports has been growing as fast as wagering on
American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high
limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. At the
Pinnacle Sports book, the action on this year’s series has increased five fold
over the last installment of the hit show and now compares to the Masters in
terms of handle.
Since becoming the first bookmaker in the world to offer odds on the show,
Pinnacle Sportsbetting has tried to support this growth in wagering interest by
expanding Idol betting offers. Every week there are now odds to win American
Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or
girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First
off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake
of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy
leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it
should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should
always look for value. In this year’s competition alone, two performers who had
some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to
low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker has
already been eliminated, while Young is now a huge long shot to win America’s
largest talent search. A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t
necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent
necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the
demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD
purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of
play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the
shows producers.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions
or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Even if
you think Elliott would look more at home at a Star Trek convention than in a
contest for a major recording contract, remember that the typical voter is
young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he
or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are
extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has
hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week Pinnacle Sports betting offers a prop on who’ll be eliminated from
the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an
overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition.
Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom
three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Two other resources to use are dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com.
Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no
means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating
votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to
build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for
‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers
around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of
the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off
of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If
both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the
match-up might offer value.
This Weeks Idol Betting
Odds to Win American Idol
Chris Daughtry +161
Katharine McPhee +314
Taylor Hicks +420
Kellie Pickler +700
Mandisa +909
Elliott Yamin +2000
Paris Bennett +2000
Ace Young +6000
Bucky Covington +15000
Who will be eliminated on April 5, 2006?
Bucky Covington +284
Elliot Yamin +310
Ace Young +311
Mandisa +351
Paris Bennett +786
Katharine McPhee +3320
Taylor Hicks +5000
Kellie Pickler +6000
Chris Daughtry +8000
Since last week’s show, at Pinnacle Sports most of the money has come in on two
contestants: Taylor Hicks and Kellie Pickler. Taylor’s odds have steadily
shortened from a high of over 5/1 a week ago to 21/5 (+420) to become the fifth
American Idol. Not only is she votefortheworst.com’s pick this week, but Kellie
Pickler has also seen a rush of money as well and has gone from a little over
11/1 down to 7/1 to win the show.