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This week we move to Paris and serve up a Royale with Cheese while looking for a
betting edge in the second Grand Slam event of the year at Roland Garros.
The French Open is tactically very different from the other three Grand Slam
events and is where tennis gets dirty (and I’m not talking about Anna Kournikova).
At Roland Garros, the surface of the court is made up of natural clay covered
with crushed brick which slows the pace of the game down and increases the
length of the rallies. This hands an advantage to players with incredible power
endurance – the ability to repeat short bursts of power over a long period of
time – and to quick, nimble players who can reposition themselves well after
every shot.
What are some things to consider when handicapping tennis match-ups at the
French Open? The most obvious is the player’s recent form on clay and their
conditioning during winter training. While most will come in fit and firm, the
French Open punishes those who haven’t done enough conditioning.
In addition to playing five sets, clay courts are conducive to long rallies.
These factors led to the longest game ever at the 2004 French Open – a grueling
6 hour and 33 minute war between Santor and Clement. Another critical thing to
contemplate during the tournament is if a player played a full five sets in the
previous match because five set matches wear a player out both physically and
mentally.
Should a high seeded player win a difficult match against a weaker opponent,
consider fading that player in the next round. A tougher than expected match
might indicate a player’s form is worse than other recent matches would suggest.
Combine that with a tired player and there might be additional value on his
opponent.
If you like a certain player to win the tournament, you might find better value
backing that player – especially if they are one of the longer shots - to win
through each of their individual matches rather than betting them to win on the
futures market. Not only will you potentially earn a higher return on your
investment, but you also have more control over your money if the player suffers
an injury during the earlier rounds.
The reason for this is that when sportsbooks deal futures markets, they try to
maintain a semblance of balanced action and attempt to limit liability on the
worst case scenario. Due to a large number of bettors playing long shots, this
can often lead to grossly depressed prices on underdogs. On the other hand, this
may lead to solid value on the favorites.
At Pinnacle Sportsbook, futures markets are normally priced between 110% and
135% depending on the size of the field. This compares to futures markets of
greater than 200% at most traditional sports books. Even though this represents
excellent value on our future markets, often even these margins won’t properly
reward long shot players.
When betting tournaments like the French Open it’s best to estimate the
moneyline quote of a player in each round. After estimating the prices for your
selection to win through, you’ll be able to work out the estimated parlay price.
Then simply compare the projected price for your parlay to the odds on the
futures market and you’ll find whether the future or a win parlay would give the
best possible return on investment.
Another factor to consider when betting tennis is the juice you will pay on
every bet. When playing head to head match-ups, Pinnacle Sportsbetting offers
the best price thanks to our 10-cent lines. This means that when you bet at
Pinnacle Sports Book, you’ll get up to 75% better odds on tennis than other
bookmakers who use 30 or 40-cent lines. Similarly, many of our prop bets also
have a 10-cent line, offering players of every level the same great value. You
can often gain as much equity from sports book shopping as you can from
handicapping.
What should also never be overlooked, is that many players might spend hundreds
of hours handicapping individual players, but often don’t spend five minutes
studying the sportsbook where they play. It’s critical to know the rules
wherever you play - especially on tennis. You’ll find that one of the areas
where Internet sportsbooks vary quite a bit is how a wager is graded if a player
retires due to injury.
At Pinnacle Sports, if at least two full sets are completed, we grade the
match-up normally despite an injury. Other sportsbooks will refund all bets
regardless of when a player retires – even when that player is hopelessly
losing. Still other books might state “Las Vegas rules apply”. If you must deal
with an online sports book that has no listed rule or follows Las Vegas rules
(which is action after one serve), you might want to confirm via email how
they’ll grade such a result. You might be surprised how many sportsbooks are
unaware of Las Vegas rules.
What are some of the more interesting line moves this week?
Will Nadal win the French Open? Yes -104
The 19-year old Spaniard Rafael Nadal currently owns a 53-match winning streak
on clay. Federer is 39-3 on the year, with all 3 losses coming to Nadal. Many
see the French Open as a 2-horse race, with it a given that Nadal and Federer
will meet in the final. We opened the “No” for Nadal to win at -130 (Yes +120),
and early sharp money was on the “Yes”. After stabilizing near Pick’em, we’re
seeing heavy two-way action at this number.
UFC 60: Matt Hughes (-286) v Royce Gracie (+266)
Hall of Famer Royce Gracie was considered a master practitioner of Gracie
jiu-jitsu, but hasn’t fought in the UFC since 1995. Hughes is the current
Welterweight champion and while he’s a strong wrestler, he can also knock his
opponents out. We opened Matt Hughes as a -400 favorite and early sharp money
quickly pushed this number down. It went as low as -240 before favorite money
returned, equalizing the price at the present number.
NBA Playoff series: Dallas (-360) versus Phoenix (+330)
Dallas opened as a moderate -245 favorite to win the Western Conference
Championship. While we’re now taking heavy two-way action, the early bettors
clearly favored Dallas. The sharps have been on Dallas for the entire playoffs,
including series and conference championships.