THEPROPHET'S
HANDICAPPER'S ALMANAC
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The
Handicapper's Almanac for Wednesday, May 10th
NHL TOTALS: EVERYTHING THAT RISES MUST SUBMERGE
With apologies to the late Flannery O'Connor for brutalizing the name
of her classic short story ("Everything that Rises Must Converge"),
note that the NHL totals which started the playoffs with a strong OVER
tendency have gone in a different direction since our last
column. Through the games of Monday, May 8th, playoff totals
are now showing a trend to the UNDER with 21 OVER, 27 UNDER and 3
push. In our last column we reported that the playoffs had
gone 16-10-2 OVER through Thursday, April 27 but a drastic correction
has occured since with 17 UNDER and 1 push in the 23 games since.
So what happened? It could be a simple explanation like
"regression to the mean" or just teams playing tighter defense and more
conservative offense as the games get more important. Based
on the games I've watched, however, I'm going to suggest that NHL
officials have backed away from the "zero tolerance" policy mandated by
commissioner Gary Bettman prior to the playoffs. I'd be
willing to wager that Bettman's office quietly told their officials
that too many penalties were being called and undermining the "playoff
intensity". I watched Carolina/Montreal game 6 last Tuesday
and in the closing five minutes of regulation someone could have pulled
out a lead pipe and not been whistled for an infraction. I
counted at least a dozen instances late in the third period of this 1-1
game where a penalty could have been called but none were. As
a fan, it makes for a more entertaining game. As a
handicapper, I just want to know what to expect. At this
point, I'm going to reverse course and suggest that its hard to make a
case to go OVER in the NHL playoffs. With the refs swallowing their
whistles combined with tighter defense look for low scoring games to be
the norm as the playoffs progress.
RED WINGS, FLYERS FALTER:
The media is making a bigger deal of the #1 seeded Red Wings being
dumped in six games by the #8 seeded Edmonton Oilers, but in reality it
was a brutal matchup for the Wings. Edmonton was an easy team
to "misunderestimate", and that was a deadly mistake since they're a
scrappy team with excellent team speed. They've got veteran
leadership with defenseman Chris Pronger and hot goaltending from Duane
Roloson. Basically, they just outworked the Wings who if they
weren't being kept in games with 11 power play chances earlier in the
series could have very easily been swept. Everyone was
talking about the forthcoming "Battle of Alberta" before Calgary lost,
but the Oilers match up better with the Sharks anyway.
Furthermore, they won't feel the same pressure that they would against
their hated cross province rivals so they'll be a lot looser in this
series. They're in a dogfight with the Sharks, having lost
two games by 2-1 scores that easily could have gone the other way.
Back east, its nice to see the usually belligerent Philly fans not
blame goalie Robert Esche for the team's early playoff exist and game 6
tank job. I'd thought that Esche would have been treated like
Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams on ice skates, but the Flyer faithful
actually gave him some supportive applause after he was pulled in the
second after allowing 5 goals on 25 shots. Esche had some
inconsistent moments, but when you're midway through period two and
have given up 25 shots its hard to blame the goalie. The
Sabres are similar in a lot of respects to the Oilers out west--good
team speed, scrappy checking, decent goaltending and the all around
excellence of Chris Drury. They may not have the all around
talent of Ottawa (their 2nd round opponent) but they've got the
potential to give the Senators fits. They're certainly in the
driver's seat after taking the first two games on the road.
BASEBALL NOTES:
We'd gone against San Diego's Jake Peavy a couple of times in the early
going, but his tenure on our "go against" list may have already come to
an end. Peavy, who's generally been one of our favorite
pitchers, got off to a rocky start in 2006. Heading into
Monday's game against San Francisco he had a 5.17 ERA and the Padres
had lost 4 of his 5 starts, costing bettors 5.65 units.
Despite these struggles, Pods manager Bruce Bochy wasn't concerned,
suggesting that his problems were tactical (eg: pitch placement) and
not physical or mental. He looked very sharp Monday, allowing
2 ER on 6 hits in an easy 10-4 win. Giants actually got out to a 2-0
lead, before the Padres exploded for 7 runs in the top of the
4th. While its obviously easier for a pitcher to dominate
with this kind of run support, Peavy looks fine. He's
traditionally been the kind of pitcher that gets better as the season
progresses, so we're definitely not going to categorically go against
him in his next few starts.
Another early season surprise has been the road play of the Colorado
Rockies. They're 11-5 +9.4 units on the road. Oddly
enough, the Rockies have struggled at home where they're just
9-8. Typically, Colorado is a decent home team that struggles
on the road. Keep an eye on Colorado on the road for the next few
weeks--if they continue their solid play away from home they may be
available at some nice dog prices.
WEEKEND RECAP:
We nailed the Kentucky Derby as Barbaro ran away from the field in the
stretch run. Our boxing analysis was a mixed bag as Oscar De
La Hoya prevailed in his fight with Ricardo Mayorga, but didn't go the
decision route as we had predicted.
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