PREAKNESS UPSET PREDICTION
CAN A LONGSHOT WIN IT?
May 17, 2008
We're going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction that Big Brown, the betting favorite, will be upset in the Preakness Stakes on May 17th 2008. Do we have some Preakness Stakes system that says so? No. Do we have Beyer Speed ratings and bloodlines that point us towards a longshot? No. Do we know something about the track surface at Pimlico that leads us to believe the favorite will run into trouble? No. Do we happen to know that Big Brown is allergic to Black Eyed Susan's and will have a reaction on race day? No. None of the above.
Where do we come up with such a prediction? Why are we picking an upset? This is simply a hunch. A prediction based on more than a couple of decades in the gambling business. You see, if there's one thing we have learned over and over again, be it betting on sports or the Triple Crown, it's that there is no such thing, as a sure thing. There are no locks. No guaranteed winners, no psychic predictions. As a matter of fact, it's the times over the years where we thought there was a can't lose situation, that we were proved wrong more times than not. This is true in team sports of course, but magnified even more in a horse race like the Preakness Stakes, with 14 entrants running.
Many of you remember several years ago when Mike Tyson was scheduled to fight a washed up former title holder named Buster Douglas. Many people didn't even bother tuning in that night because, well, the result was a forgone conclusion. The only question that remained was, what round would Tyson knock him out in. One gentleman in Vegas even bet $38,000 to win $1000 on Tyson thinking it would be the easiest dime he ever made. We all know what happened. There was a knock out all right, but it was Tyson Getting Knocked out and upset. Is Big Brown Mike Tyson? Is Harlem Rocker or Kentucky Bear Buster Douglas?
CHECK OUT OUR OFFICIAL PREAKNESS PICKS WITH ANALYSIS
How about all the Yankee fans that were planning World Series Trips with the Yankees up 3 games to zip, and the Bosox down to their last 3 outs in 2004? What do you think the odds would have been, right then and there in the bottom of the 9th, that the Red Sox would go on to win the ALCS? What do you think the odds would have been that the Bosox would go on to win the World Series? If there was ever a "sure thing", it was the Yankees only needing 3 outs and Mariano Rivera on the mound. Perhaps Big Brown will take on the roll of the Yankees and Giant Moon will take the Bosox roll.
You see folks, that's what makes sports great. As the saying goes, that's why they play the games. We don't know what's going to happen. No matter how easy something looks. No matter how much the odds are against something happening, history shows us, that more times than we realize, the odds are defied. The public, and even the so called racing experts, always seem to fall in love with the Derby winners. I can't recall many Derby winners that didn't have a buzz about them for the Preakness. It's no different than the way the betting public loves favorites in team sports. The betting public has a short memory. They only remember the most recent results. Show me an undefeated NFL team and I'll show you a betting public lined up to bet on them with both hands.
Big Brown is that undefeated favorite. All the talk is about how all the other horses in the Preakness are running for 2nd place. How the real test will come in the Belmont in three weeks. Most are recommending that you don't even place a wager on the Preakness because we all know who is going to win already and the odds won't dictate a nice payoff.
But that's where the experts are wrong. It's situations like this race, that produce some of the biggest scores a gambler will ever make. It's having the guts to buck the obvious, and to take a shot, that can produce huge wins. Anyone can pluck down a sawbuck on an odds on favorite. But can you stand alone and back a 20-1 shot?
The bottom line here is, would we be absolutely shocked if Big Brown was upset and didn't win the Preakness? Of course not! Would we be completely shocked beyond belief if Big Brown finished OUT of the money? No way! After all, this is horse racing folks. There are so many variables involved that can affect the outcome. Traffic problems, God forbid, another injury. (remember, Barbaro was a can't lose here). Even a foul can come into play, and of course, the weather.
So rather than take the advice of those who say, don't bet this race, we are saying just the opposite. This is a race you can't afford not to bet. This the kind of race big scores are made of. So take a shot. Wheel some trifectas. Use lots of combinations and even play a few tickets without Big Brown on them. You never know......you might have Buster Douglas or the 2004 Bosox on your ticket! Good Luck and Enjoy the Preakness Stakes!
Have a look at our other Preakness articles :
Big Brown Favored to win the Preakness