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Weekly Look Ahead Ė Week 11
By: Jordan Adams
One of the premier Pac-10 games goes down this Saturday night when USC hosts Oregon with the chance to eliminate the other from any shot at the conference crown. Southern Cal has its first loss of the year but rebounded with a 42-0 win in Stanford to ease their nerves. Oregon, which lost at Washington State two weeks back, needs this win not only to stay on pace and hopefully catch Cal, but also to continue to improve their resume for an well respected bowl game.
At home the Trojans are perfect, posting a 3-0 record but covering just one of those spreads. USC comes in with a 7-1 record, however their 3-5 mark against the spread is hardly enticing for backers. Oregon has faired a bit better but their 5-3 record against the number is still sub-par comparatively with their ranking.
No. 21 Oregon vs. No. 7 USC 11/11 10 pm
Line: USC -7.5
Whether they get it done convincingly or by the slimmest of margins, winning in the Colliseum is extremely difficult against the men of Troy. Oregon is just 2-2 away from home and is not the same team offensively when not playing at Autzen Zoo.
You will, however, see a good deal of points scored in this game. Both teams are scoring over 30 points per game, the Ducks at over 36 and the Trojans at 31. USC has scored over 40 in each of the last two meetings against Oregon while winning both of those games by double digits.
Oregon has hit the over on five occasions this season while USC is just 3-5 in the totals department.
USCís dominance at home has replicated back to the spread, posting a 20-8 mark against the number in their last 28 home games. Last Saturday on the road against Stanford, the Trojans covered their spread for the first time since September 16 at home against Nebraska.
When the Ducks succeed the running game, they tend to continue that form over into the next game. Oregon is a daunting 26-1 ATS in their last 27 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. In their last game against Washington, Oregon gained 303 yards on the ground.
Oregon is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. Also, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
USC is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 November ball games. However, they are 0-5 ATS this year against a team with a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.