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Understanding the Super Bowl Point Spread
By Robert Ferringo of
Doc's Sports Predictions
Over the weekend I was cruising around Buckhead having a few drinks with an old
friend when the topic of the Super Bowl came up. He mentioned that he had asked
“a guy” that he places wagers through to throw down $2,000 on Chicago for him
next Sunday. But when I asked my friend what number he got the line at he looked
at me like I just asked him to recite the state capitols in reverse alphabetical
order.
It would seem simple enough that the No. 1 fundamental of betting the Super Bowl
involves understanding the spread. However, there are still so many square
bettors out there that toss out their hard-earned loot without a full
appreciation or knowledge about the line that they’re playing.
Now, it’s possible that my friend was just trying to impress me. But if he
really wanted to accomplish that feat he could have done so by knowing that in
Super Bowl history teams favored by exactly a touchdown are just 1-4-1 ATS or
that the underdog has covered in four of the last five years. That type of
analysis could justify two dimes on the Bears. Nostalgia from the time you stole
a hand job from a toothless tranny in the parking garage of O’Hare Airport
couldn’t.
If you are going to bet on Super Bowl XLI, which will kickoff at approximately
6:20 p.m. EST on Sunday, Feb. 4 at Dolphin Stadium in Miami, you should at least
have a working knowledge of what the spread is, and what it is trying to tell
you.
The Indianapolis-Chicago line opened with the Colts instilled as a 7.5-point
favorite. That number was quickly bet down to an even touchdown. That tells me
that the sharp bettors and Windy City wise guys saw the obvious value in getting
the team with the better defense above a key number and the early action was on
the Bears.
(When I say “key number” I mean that seven is a statistically significant
difference in the outcome of NFL games. In fact, the final score is decided by
exactly seven points in approximately 7.1 percent of all games. Further, if you
have Chicago at +7.5 you would have them through three “key numbers” – 3, 4, and
7 – and across differences that combine to make up approximately 43 percent of
all NFL outcomes. That’s value.)
Now, it’s not surprising that the Colts are the favorite and I believe that the
number is fair, though beatable from either side. The touchdown represents the
fact that the AFC has clearly been the superior conference both in this season
and in recent years. The AFC has won seven of the past nine Super Bowls straight
up (5-3-1 against the spread) and has won 61.5 percent (118-74) of all
interconference games since the start of the 2004 season.
Besides the recent conference totalitarianism, the Colts get the nod because
they fit the profile of the team that the public is most likely to back. They
have the more potent, fan-friendly offense. They have a recent history of
success with five consecutive trips to the postseason. Additionally, the last
impression that fans and gamblers have of Indianapolis was its dramatic comeback
victory over New England in the AFC Title Game.
Finally, the Colts are the favorite because they hold the key to the most hyped
storyline of the week: Peyton Manning. Indy becomes the sentimental favorite for
the general betting public because the question of whether or not Manning will
get a Super Bowl ring has been overblown to the point that its more important
than our failing education system or the hypocrisy of our current Republican
administration. People want to believe that this is Peyton’s time, and they’ll
line up to throw their money on him in the hopes that he can vanquish over a
decade’s worth of choke jobs.
Now, I’m not here to say that the Colts are the favorite in this game simply as
a result of some public relations machinations. No, no. They are a veteran crew
with some devastating skill players. They can score points in bunches and have
some momentum, so if they do win there’s a fair chance that it will be by a
double-digit margin. But what you have to keep in mind is that the Super Bowl
line isn’t set according to who the books think will win the game, it’s based on
who the books believe the public will play.
Which brings us to our next point. Since its initial settling, the line has held
firm at -7 at most online sportsbooks. However, at two of the more prominent
books (Pinnacle and BetCris) that spread has at least flirted with a stay at
-6.5 due to heavy Bears action. In fact, Pinnacle and 5Dimes currently have the
Colts available at -6.5. I’m not surprised to see this type of manipulation by
the books and suspect it will increase as we get nearer to kickoff in order to
balance the action.
Again, that’s the goal: balance the action. Traditionally, the public
overwhelmingly backs the favorites in the Super Bowl. This puts the books in a
kamikaze position of needing the dog to cover to avoid a massive loss. But this
year may be a bit different. Because Chicago is from a major market, with a
marquee defense and a strong tradition, the books may have a chance to avoid
such an all-or-nothing scenario.
However, there’s also another underlying plot that should influence the line.
“It will take a lot of action for us to (move off 7), considering we’d be doing
more than just moving off a key number,” a bookmaker at Bodog said in published
reports. “We would also be opening ourselves to be sided by the players if we
were to move off -7. If the sharps keep playing the Bears and the recreational
players play them as opposed to the Colts, we may move.”
We’ve already established that seven is an important number. If the books were
to lower the line to -6.5 then they would be opening themselves up to get
middled. Bettors would get the Bears +7.5 and the Colts -6.5, and if
Indianapolis won by exactly a touchdown the books would get hammered by having
to pay out on both tickets. Therefore, if a majority of books were to move to
6.5 you would instantly be tipped off that a LOT of money was heading on the
dog.
That scenario isn’t likely, but it certainly is possible. According to
Wagerline.com’s calculations nearly 58 percent of all Super Bowl bets up to this
point have been placed on the underdog Bears.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check
out his Insider Page