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UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin
Odds - Analysis -
Predictions
UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin is an upcoming mixed martial arts
event to be held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship on July 5,
2008, at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The title bout between Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Forrest
Griffin, coaches on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs. Team
Forrest, will be for Jackson's UFC light heavyweight championship.
A heavyweight bout between Frank Mir and Justin McCully was
cancelled due to Mir's signing on as a coach for the upcoming The
Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir, which will set up a
match between Mir and UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio
Rodrigo Nogueira. Both the Chris Wilson vs. Steve Bruno and Ben
Saunders vs. Jared Rollins bout were rescheduled for UFC 87.
Here are my predictions for the main fight card:
Main Card Bouts:
-Quinton Jackson (#1 Light Heavyweight in the World)* vs. Forrest
Griffin (#6 Light Heavyweight in the World)*
-Josh Koscheck (#4 Welterweight in the World)* vs. Chris Lytle
-Joe Stevenson (#9 Lightweight in the World)* vs. Gleison Tibau
-Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
-Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
Middleweights
-Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
Two UFC veterans step into the octagon to kick the night off, the
heavy-handed Patrick Cote and the Renzo Gracie black belt Ricardo
Almeida. Both of these guys have fought in the UFC for years, and
have had ups and downs in their career. Both fighters were ousted
from the organization after a couple of losses early on in their
careers, but they have both worked their way back to the UFC and
will now meet inside the cage in a match that will bump somebody up
one chain link closer to Anderson Silva. Ricardo Almeida has great
submissions. In his UFC homecoming last February, he choked out Rob
Yundt in just over a minute. The submission fighter is riding a
7-fight win streak and will face a very tough test in a red-hot
Patrick Cote. Cote is riding a 4-fight win streak, with 3 of those
fights taking place in the UFC. Cote has matured a lot since his
stint on the "The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback". He has a lot of
power in his hands, and just don't see him being taken down in
submitted in this fight. Almeida has never knocked anyone out. He
goes to decision or submits his opponent. I think that Cote will be
throwing bombs left and right and eventually catch Almeida, sending
him to the sleep on the octagon canvas.
Prediction: Patrick "The Predator" Cote –
TKO/KO Round 2
Lightweights
-Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
This is a bad fight for Marcus Aurelio. This guy is a great fighter.
After dropping 3 straight decisions to Mitsuhiro Ishida, Takanori
Gomi and Clay Guida, he got himself on the winning path by knocking
out Luke Caudillo and submitting Ryan Roberts. Now "Maximus" Aurelio
finds himself opposite the strong wrestler, and decision grinder,
Tyson Griffin. Here is how I see this match going – Griffin goes for
repeated take downs, and eventually puts Aurelio on his back. The
submission savvy Aurelio pulls guard and works for submissions while
eating hammer fists from Tyson Griffin. A few stand ups, some more
take downs, and 15 minutes later Tyson Griffin wins a unanimous
decision.
Prediction: Tyson Griffin – Unanimous
Decision Round 3
Lightweights
Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau
Both of these guys are coming off of losses, although Stevenson's
loss was pretty significant. Stevenson worked his way up the
lightweight ladder. He defeated 4 really tough opponents to get a
shot at the vacant UFC lightweight title, and was utterly manhandled
by BJ Penn. It is going to be interesting to see if Joe Stevenson
has mentally rebounded from that loss, and if he is ready to work
his way back to a UFC lightweight title shot. Gleison Tibau is no
slouch. He is a pretty good submission fighter and has enough gas to
go the distance with Stevenson. If Stevenson comes in strong and
focused, he will win this match. The big question is, where will his
head be?
Prediction: Joe Stevenson – Unanimous
Decision Round 3
Welterweights
-Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle
One of my least favorite fighters is taking on one of my favorites.
Koscheck gets on my nerves. I couldn't of been happier when GSP beat
him at his own game and out wrestled him for three straight rounds.
Koscheck looks to rebound from that loss when he takes on "Chris
"Lights Out" Lytle. Chris Lytle is a guy with great stand up and
great submissions. His take down defense isn't so hot, though, and
we saw that with his fight with Matt Hughes. If Koscheck wants to
win this match, all he has to do is watch the Hughes/Lytle fight and
utilize a similar game plan. Koscheck's striking isn't any good. His
stance is wide and his punches are looping so he won't want to stand
with Lytle. Lytle has great kickboxing and won't tolerate Koscheck's
unorthodox style. Lytle's never been submitted and I don't see
Koscheck knocking him out, being as Lytle has only lost by TKO two
times in 45 pro fights. You are probably sensing a pattern by now,
but I think Josh Koscheck is going to grind out a decision by
repeatedly taking Lytle down.
Prediction: Josh Koscheck – Unanimous Decision Round 3
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
-Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin
Forrest is a tough guy, and he is good at a lot of things, but he
isn't great at any one thing. Forrest is a lot bigger then Rampage,
so I don't see Page going for repeated takedowns. Rampages' boxing
is a lot better then Griffin's so I see Rampage approaching this
fight much like the Dan Henderson bout.
After watching the punishment that Forrest Griffin is able to endure
in some of his past fights, I used to think that it was impossible
to knock Griffin out. That is , until , Keith Jardine stepped into
the octagon and knocked Forrest silly. I am pretty sure Rampage and
Juanito Ibarra have watched that fight a few times in training camp.
While Griffin looked pretty good against Shogun Rua, he had a hell
of a time with Rampage's training partner, Hector Ramirez (who?).
Juanito Ibarra has already trained one of his fighters for Forrest
Griffin, and has learned from his mistakes, which were few and far
between. Now Ibarra puts his best fighter, Rampage Jackson, in the
cage with Griffin and the result should be a lot different this
time.
I think this is going to be a boxing match, for the most part, with
Jackson eventually catching Forrest on the chin and sending him to
the canvas.
Prediction: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson –
KO/TKO Round 3
Here are the current and updated odds for UFC
86 brought to you by
sportsbook.com
Quinton Jackson -260
Forrest Griffen +200
Patrick Cote +120
Ricardo Almeida -150
Gabriel Gonzaga -625
Justin McCully +425
Joe Stevenson -220
Gleison Tibau +180
Josh Koscheck -325
Chris Lytle +250
Jorge Gurgel even
Cole Miller -130
Larry
Vollmer Jr. is a mixed martial arts blogger for the Journal News.
Check out his blog at
http://mma.lohudblogs.com.
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