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buzzwordsports
06-16-2003, 05:23 PM
6/16 MLB:

NY Mets @ Florida 7:05 PM EST

Florida -150 over NY Mets (5 Units)
Florida/NY Mets Over 8 (1.5 Units)

When a future Hall-of-Famer like Tom Glavine is on the mound against a rookie, and that pitcher is not only installed as an underdog, but has also seen the line rise against him, we either have superb value in the veteran or a very wise betting audience... unfortunately for Glavine and the Mets, it appears that the latter is the case in tonight's game...

Glavine has fallen apart in his last three starts, allowing a whopping 16 runs, 21 hits (including 6 HRs), and 8 walks in just 11.1 innings for an absurdly awful 12.71 ERA... an inflamed left elbow seems to be part of the problem, but the other reality for the Mets is that they signed a pitcher who is on the downside of his career, and age is beginning to show itself as well... considering that the Marlins are batting a whopping .331 (89 for 269) in their careers against Glavine, and are batting an exceptional .291 against lefthanders this season (New York is hitting just .235 against lefties), it appears that Glavine's struggles are unlikely to cease this evening...

Dontrelle Willis may not have the track record of Tom Glavine, but we are more than suitably impressed by his performance thus far in the majors... Willis is not 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA on the season, and has allowed more than three runs in a start just once in seven appearances (meanwhile, Glavine has allowed at least three runs to Florida in three of his past four starts against the Fish)... in his last four starts overall, Willis has been nearly untouchable, allowing just four runs over 28.2 innings for a 1.26 ERA - not coincidentally, Florida has won all four of those starts... and when pitching at home, Willis and the Marlins are 3-0, with the opposition scoring just one run and knocking out ten hits in the lefty's last 14 innings...

While the Mets have failed in two consecutive seasons to buy a division title by acquiring over-the-hill veterans like Tom Glavine, Mo Vaughn, and Roberto Alomar, the Marlins have actually put together a promising future with young pitching such as Dontrelle Willis... tonight, youth defeats experience again, as the Marlins take it to Glavine and the Mets and keep New York from leapfrogging over them in the NL East...

FINAL PREDICTION: FLORIDA 7, NY METS 3


Minnesota @ Kansas City 8:05 PM EST

Minnesota -145 over Kansas City (5 Units)

Here's another contest based on pure simple logic... when one pitcher has allowed 3+ runs in their last seven starts (including 4 runs in each of their last three starts), he's going to have a difficult time outdueling a pitcher who has held his opposition to two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts (with the other performance being a three-run outing over eight innings)... this is the dilemna facing Derrick May this evening as he takes on Kyle Lohse and the Twins...

Lohse may get the least amount of press on a Minnesota team littered with veteran starters like Brad Radke, Joe Mays and Kenny Rogers, but it has been Lohse who has been the ace of this squad this season... Minnesota has now won seven of Lohse's last eight starts due to his exceptional performances, and considering that Lohse has compiled an amazing 1.96 ERA in those starts, it's no wonder that the Twins have been favored here... on the road, Lohse has been untouchable, allowing just four runs in his last 26 innings, despite facing potent offenses such as the Mariners and Giants... an earlier start against the Royals this season resulted in Lohse allowing just one run over seven innings in a Minnesota victory, and the Twins have now won three of Lohse's four career starts against the Royals, with the sole loss coming when the Twinkies scored just two runs...

That should not be a problem against Derrick May, who has been incredibly consistent in his starts, allowing three or four runs in each of his last seven starts, and ten of his eleven starts on the season... the Royals have now lost each of May's last five starts, and after starting off the season 11-0 at home, Kansas City is now barely hovering over .500 after losing 14 of their last 20 home games... meanwhile, after starting the season with a 7-7 mark on the road, the Twins have run off 13 road wins in their last 18 games... it all adds up to what we expect to be another Minnesota win this evening, as Kyle Lohse remains on his spectacular run...

FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 5, KANSAS CITY 3


San Diego @ Colorado 9:05 PM EST

Colorado -150 over San Diego (5 Units)

Just on basic rule of thumb with these teams, we have to be swayed in the direction of the Colorado Rockies, as their 25-10 home record absolutely dwarfs San Diego's 9-25 mark on the road this season... and while the Rockies have scored at least five runs in ten of their last eleven home games (and eight of their last ten games overall), the Padres have scored more than five runs just eight times in their last 46 contests, including just three times in their last 20 road games...

Adam Eaton has been absolutely smoked in his visits to Coors Field, allowing 18 runs in just 15.2 innings over his past three starts in the thin air (and allowing five longballs in the process)... toss in the fact that Eaton has allowed 14 runs in his last 19 road innings overall, and that the Rockies are batting a combined .311 against Eaton, and Colorado's offensive success should certainly continue this evening...

Aaron Cook hasn't had the best of seasons thus far for Colorado, but there are a few factors which make us believe that he will put forth a quality start this evening... first of all, Cook has had quality starts in three of his last four games at Coors, allowing three runs or less while pitching at least six innings in those contests... included in that run was a dominating performance against the Pads, as Cook allowed just one run and five hits in a complete game performance... which of course brings us to our second reason for our prediction of a Colorado blowout... namely, Aaron Cook has been superb against the Padres, allowing just 9 runs over 29 career innings against San Diego, including a pair of dominant home performances in which the Padres mustered just two runs and ten hits in 16 innings... with a 1.13 ERA in two home starts against San Diego, we're expecting Cook's third time around to once again be the charm...

Colorado has now won seven of their last nine home games against San Diego, and exploded for 30 runs in a three-game sweep earlier this season at Coors... the Rockies not only have the most home wins in baseball, but the Padres have the least road wins in baseball as well... and with the home team now 11-3 in the last 14 games between these two, we are all over the Rockies to win the opening game of this set...

FINAL PREDICTION: COLORADO 7, SAN DIEGO 2


Anaheim @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST

Anaheim +135 over Seattle (4 Units)

The Seattle Mariners have suddenly forgotten how to hit, it seems... after an extensive offensive binge, Seattle has returned home without their offense, as they have now scored two runs or less in five straight contests, and a total of just TEN runs in the first six games of their current homestand... thanks to their pitching, however, the Mariners have been able to salvage half of those contests leading into this game against their AL West rivals, the Anaheim Angels...

Sadly, it appears that pitching is not gonna get the job done tonight for the Mariners, as Joel Pineiro has been more like a pinata against the Angels in his career, allowing at least four runs in four of his five career starts against Anaheim, including 15 runs (14 earned) in his last 18 innings against Garrett Anderson and company... Anderson, Fullmer, Salmon, Spiezio, Kennedy and Molina have throroughly enjoyed whacking around Pineiro, as their combined .367 average, 3 HRs and 16 RBIs in just 69 at-bats against Pineiro foreshadows a team that may be on the verge of an offensive explosion this evening...

John Lackey hasn't had anything close to a quality season, and his 5.76 ERA on the year certainly doesn't compare to Joel Pineiro's 3.89 ERA in 2003... however, this is play based on matchups, and John Lackey has actually pitched quite well in Seattle, allowing just two earned runs in 12.2 innings on work, for a 1.42 ERA... and Lackey is coming off his best start of the season, having allowed just one run and five hits over 6.1 innings against the Phillies, while striking out eight batters... with the Mariners scoring just 1.6 runs per game in their last eight home contests (going just 3-5 in those games), the time appears to be ripe to take Lackey and the Angels to knock Seattle's AL West lead down a bit... take the Angels as a terrific underdog play...

FINAL PREDICTION: ANAHEIM 5, SEATTLE 2


Boston @ White Sox 8:05 PM EST

Boston -1.5 runs (-130) over White Sox (3 Units)

The Boston Red Sox were a busy team in the offseason, and their offensive acquisitions could very well make the difference tonight against Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox... Buehrle has been one of the best starters in the AL over the past two seasons, but something horrific has happened to the lefthander this year, as he is now 2-10 with a 5.18 mark on the season, allowing at least three runs in each of his last six home starts to give him a 6.17 ERA at Comiskey on the year...

Buehrle's last two home starts have been outright disasters, with the lefty giving up a whopping 13 runs in just 10.1 innings... and considering that Buehrle has allowed at least five runs in six of his last eight starts overall, he has little room for error against Pedro Martinez this evening...

Outside of two hiccups this season, Pedro has looked like his old dominant self, allowing two runs or less in eight of his ten starts this season, including SEVEN instances where he has allowed one run or less... worse news for the White Sox is that Pedro has been absurdly good against Chicago in his career, allowing just two runs in his last 27 innings against them for a 0.67 ERA, including 14 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two starts... and with a 1.60 career ERA against the White Sox (and with the current crew of Sox batters hitting just .185 with two RBIs in 65 at-bats against Pedro), Chicago's chances of taking this contest are looking pretty slim...

David Ortiz, Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Damian Jackson are a combined 15 for 30 (.500) in their careers against Mark Buehrle... add them to the likes of the already dangerous Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra and Johnny Damon, and this may very well be a recipe for disaster against the slumping Buehrle... unless Buehrle can right his season immediately, we're looking at an easy Boston win... therefore, with the line currently at -200 on the Red Sox, we feel very comfortable taking the BoSox on the runline, as Pedro shuts down the White Sox yet again...

FINAL PREDICTION: BOSTON 5, WHITE SOX 1


St Louis @ Milwaukee 8:05 PM EST

St Louis -140 over Milwaukee (2 Units)

no analysis.