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COVER STORY
When you think of steroid abuse, perhaps the last team you would suspect would be the Raiders and the last guy you would suspect is Bill Romanowski or Superbowl no-show Barrett Robbins. I for one believe “roid rage” is a total hype. I suspect too much violence on TV as the culprit. Lisa Simpson said it best, “The Raiders win because they cheat.” If I was on the roids, just knowing these guys are on it would make me want to clean up. Did Keyshawn do much in the postseason last year? I seem to remember him popping up on the stat sheet a couple of times. Excuse me for not feeling compelled to look it up. I’m not sure if disabling Keyshawn says that they are going to run a tight ship – or if this is the Bucs simply admitting the year is over so what the hell? Sit the jackass down because it doesn’t make a difference anyhow. As much as the lines tweaked early in the season as teams got on and off of rolls, it might be even MORE critical now that a win truly could be the start of a hot run and a loss could truly be the signs of the wheels falling off the wagon. This might also be a good time to look at a couple of the teams that played their butts off for miracle wins a couple weeks ago and expect that with a couple weeks past, they are off their high and ready to die now.
Maddox completed 25 of 44 passes for 327 yards Monday night, which means that his “receivers”, aka fast moving cement blocks, outright dropped about 15 passes. Plaxico kicked in his usual 8-10 drops but he had lots of company, with even sure-handed Hines Ward following his drop straight into the turf to self-inflict an injury. I have absolutely no luck ever putting good dough on the Steelers. I took a flyer on them given the dire nature of the game and a line so low I just couldn’t comprehend why anyone wouldn’t take the 49ers. But perhaps worse was that former starter Z-man got into a war of words with Barlow about who was the better backup. Guess we know the answer to that one now too.
So the dogs had another decent week. Personally, I couldn’t get a favorite to cover outside of the Broncos. Seems like the only favorites that cover now are the ones with a good amount of warts on them – the pretty boys always seem to fall short of the number somehow. Not that this is anything terribly new. This dragged me to another 500-ish week in a 500-ish month that seems to be lacking any breaks. Still, the real goal is to just toe the line until you have one or two big weeks and you can end up with a pretty impressive winning percentage for the season. Its the bad weeks that sink ya and if you stick with true value, you shouldn’t have those.
Honestly, my hearts not in it this week and I’m sweeping the board for the first time here. Still, it doesn’t take much rocket science to dissect the value of the lines.
Ravens –2.5 Seattle
Two teams on my shit list. Baltimore is more in the cellar for me, so I’d lean to the hawks on a game without much value.
Colts –3 Bills
I guess Henry busted his leg last week? That’s not good. Can’t see much hope for the Bills here, but that’s a knee-jerk reaction.
Browns –3 Steelers
Hard to believe the Steelers are falling to the bottom of this pathetic group. If you are looking for the Steelers to rebound in a critical situation, remember that they have been trying to rebound for a solid month now. Apparently, the answers just are not there. Browns are such a mess though, I’d probably look to another game this week.
Dallas –3 Carolina
Carolina’s wideouts played like a trio of high-jumping Randy Moss’ last week. Will this team EVER get their respect? I love Carolina again, play them every week. Just maybe not if they need more than 2 points to win. I know from several months ago that Parcells is concerned about handling the Thanksgiving appearance so it’ll ge interesting to see how the genius handles that situation.
GB -? 49ers
If Al Harris handles TO like he handled Randy Moss, I like the Packs chances. That’s a big if. You should probably be looking to lay 3 here. I can only assume Farve is playing? Haven’t heard much yet. This could be a good letdown game for the Packers after two hard fought wins and prior to Thanksgiving in Detroit.
Patriots –6 Texans
Texans are worth +6 this year. Best red zone punt team in football! However, I wonder if this young team looks at Tony Banks and thinks it is a bye week. Offhand, haven't the Texans won 2 straight, and aren't they terrible after wins?
Lions +10.5 Vikings
Vikings over that critical Randy Moss 7. Truth is the Vikings defense isn’t worth 10.5, even if the Lions aren’t worth +30. However, Lions should be focused on Thursday, not Sunday, so take that in consideration.
Jets –4 Jags
Jets are more exciting but still haven’t distiguished themselves from the Jags. A tempting play nonetheless. Are the Jets willing to play the spoiler roll, or are they rolling in the disappointment of perhaps a season ending loss last week?
Eagles –5.5 Saints
Saints lost last week and knowing them, there may not be a rebound this season.
Rams –8 Cardinals
Not convinced the Rams have fixed the recent problems based on last week. 8 is a give-away to the Cards and there’s enough doubt about the Rams to make it worth a gamble. Cardinals have been much better at home this season than on the road and you might take advantage of their recent road skid here. Then again, Rams have the warts of a good favorite play and its not too unusual to see a team win by 44 in Arizona...
Denver –10.5 Chicago
Plummer’s back, but Chicago is not playing like a patsy and may cover 10 all season long. However, throwing this game will pave the way for the rookie to finish out the season for the Bears and that's a pretty likely scenario.
Titans –7 Falcons
So is Dunn carrying 28 times for 150 yards this week too? Give me that answer and I’ll tell you who covers.
Chiefs –11 Raiders
So much for Fargas. Bitter rivalry in the works here but solid line value. Take the Chiefs and their newfound warts, I don’t care about losing a road game in Cincy.
Bengals –3 Chargers
Up down up down up down. Don’t lay 3 on the Bengals.
Dolphins –6.5 Redskins
Do you like coaches with revenge motives? Look no further than Dolphins offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Redskins karma continues to run true having the Dolphins play them a week after Stephen Davis ripped them. Even if Ramsey starts, will he finish? The only question is if the Dolphins will cover? One wonders how the hot-seated coaching staff will handle this game given the high-profile nature of their Thanksgiving appearance on Thursday. Can they afford to give the Redskins a full dose of Ricky Williams, or will they “Houston” this game?
Bucs –5.5 Giants
This may be the year Tiki doesn’t bail out Fassel. Ugly Ugly game. Value to the Giants but this could flow either way. I have a feeling something else will develop between now and then.
DON'T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
When you think of steroid abuse, perhaps the last team you would suspect would be the Raiders and the last guy you would suspect is Bill Romanowski or Superbowl no-show Barrett Robbins. I for one believe “roid rage” is a total hype. I suspect too much violence on TV as the culprit. Lisa Simpson said it best, “The Raiders win because they cheat.” If I was on the roids, just knowing these guys are on it would make me want to clean up. Did Keyshawn do much in the postseason last year? I seem to remember him popping up on the stat sheet a couple of times. Excuse me for not feeling compelled to look it up. I’m not sure if disabling Keyshawn says that they are going to run a tight ship – or if this is the Bucs simply admitting the year is over so what the hell? Sit the jackass down because it doesn’t make a difference anyhow. As much as the lines tweaked early in the season as teams got on and off of rolls, it might be even MORE critical now that a win truly could be the start of a hot run and a loss could truly be the signs of the wheels falling off the wagon. This might also be a good time to look at a couple of the teams that played their butts off for miracle wins a couple weeks ago and expect that with a couple weeks past, they are off their high and ready to die now.
Maddox completed 25 of 44 passes for 327 yards Monday night, which means that his “receivers”, aka fast moving cement blocks, outright dropped about 15 passes. Plaxico kicked in his usual 8-10 drops but he had lots of company, with even sure-handed Hines Ward following his drop straight into the turf to self-inflict an injury. I have absolutely no luck ever putting good dough on the Steelers. I took a flyer on them given the dire nature of the game and a line so low I just couldn’t comprehend why anyone wouldn’t take the 49ers. But perhaps worse was that former starter Z-man got into a war of words with Barlow about who was the better backup. Guess we know the answer to that one now too.
So the dogs had another decent week. Personally, I couldn’t get a favorite to cover outside of the Broncos. Seems like the only favorites that cover now are the ones with a good amount of warts on them – the pretty boys always seem to fall short of the number somehow. Not that this is anything terribly new. This dragged me to another 500-ish week in a 500-ish month that seems to be lacking any breaks. Still, the real goal is to just toe the line until you have one or two big weeks and you can end up with a pretty impressive winning percentage for the season. Its the bad weeks that sink ya and if you stick with true value, you shouldn’t have those.
Honestly, my hearts not in it this week and I’m sweeping the board for the first time here. Still, it doesn’t take much rocket science to dissect the value of the lines.
Ravens –2.5 Seattle
Two teams on my shit list. Baltimore is more in the cellar for me, so I’d lean to the hawks on a game without much value.
Colts –3 Bills
I guess Henry busted his leg last week? That’s not good. Can’t see much hope for the Bills here, but that’s a knee-jerk reaction.
Browns –3 Steelers
Hard to believe the Steelers are falling to the bottom of this pathetic group. If you are looking for the Steelers to rebound in a critical situation, remember that they have been trying to rebound for a solid month now. Apparently, the answers just are not there. Browns are such a mess though, I’d probably look to another game this week.
Dallas –3 Carolina
Carolina’s wideouts played like a trio of high-jumping Randy Moss’ last week. Will this team EVER get their respect? I love Carolina again, play them every week. Just maybe not if they need more than 2 points to win. I know from several months ago that Parcells is concerned about handling the Thanksgiving appearance so it’ll ge interesting to see how the genius handles that situation.
GB -? 49ers
If Al Harris handles TO like he handled Randy Moss, I like the Packs chances. That’s a big if. You should probably be looking to lay 3 here. I can only assume Farve is playing? Haven’t heard much yet. This could be a good letdown game for the Packers after two hard fought wins and prior to Thanksgiving in Detroit.
Patriots –6 Texans
Texans are worth +6 this year. Best red zone punt team in football! However, I wonder if this young team looks at Tony Banks and thinks it is a bye week. Offhand, haven't the Texans won 2 straight, and aren't they terrible after wins?
Lions +10.5 Vikings
Vikings over that critical Randy Moss 7. Truth is the Vikings defense isn’t worth 10.5, even if the Lions aren’t worth +30. However, Lions should be focused on Thursday, not Sunday, so take that in consideration.
Jets –4 Jags
Jets are more exciting but still haven’t distiguished themselves from the Jags. A tempting play nonetheless. Are the Jets willing to play the spoiler roll, or are they rolling in the disappointment of perhaps a season ending loss last week?
Eagles –5.5 Saints
Saints lost last week and knowing them, there may not be a rebound this season.
Rams –8 Cardinals
Not convinced the Rams have fixed the recent problems based on last week. 8 is a give-away to the Cards and there’s enough doubt about the Rams to make it worth a gamble. Cardinals have been much better at home this season than on the road and you might take advantage of their recent road skid here. Then again, Rams have the warts of a good favorite play and its not too unusual to see a team win by 44 in Arizona...
Denver –10.5 Chicago
Plummer’s back, but Chicago is not playing like a patsy and may cover 10 all season long. However, throwing this game will pave the way for the rookie to finish out the season for the Bears and that's a pretty likely scenario.
Titans –7 Falcons
So is Dunn carrying 28 times for 150 yards this week too? Give me that answer and I’ll tell you who covers.
Chiefs –11 Raiders
So much for Fargas. Bitter rivalry in the works here but solid line value. Take the Chiefs and their newfound warts, I don’t care about losing a road game in Cincy.
Bengals –3 Chargers
Up down up down up down. Don’t lay 3 on the Bengals.
Dolphins –6.5 Redskins
Do you like coaches with revenge motives? Look no further than Dolphins offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Redskins karma continues to run true having the Dolphins play them a week after Stephen Davis ripped them. Even if Ramsey starts, will he finish? The only question is if the Dolphins will cover? One wonders how the hot-seated coaching staff will handle this game given the high-profile nature of their Thanksgiving appearance on Thursday. Can they afford to give the Redskins a full dose of Ricky Williams, or will they “Houston” this game?
Bucs –5.5 Giants
This may be the year Tiki doesn’t bail out Fassel. Ugly Ugly game. Value to the Giants but this could flow either way. I have a feeling something else will develop between now and then.
DON'T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!