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A great week of football ahead and I think I have a half-decent column for you this week too. Two games for Thanksgiving, still having a Sunday night affair, a solid MNF matchup and some decent matchups throughout. I’m definitely more pumped this week.
Getting right to it:
Detroit +7 GB
A quick look at history says that Detroit will hang 4 on turkey day and we know this organization hasn’t been blessed with great teams throughout the decades. Certainly in a down-and-out year, you have to respect their desire to pick a game where they will give it their Cincy-vs-KC all. Against GB, you certainly have a bettors chance of an Ahman Green fumble or a Farve thumb-oopsie. If Detroit gets these turnovers, you certainly have to respect their chances to cover. There are worse run defenses in the league than Detroit. As impressive as the Lombardi-like run blocking was last week that might lead you to think Detroit has no hope, you just have to realize that a team doesn’t look that good every week. Home +7 is rarely a bad call in this league. Because of the solid value in this line, its a top play.
Miami +3 Dallas
To quote many a tout, it is hard to go against Dallas here. Frankly, Dallas is in a statistical group of teams that has rarely lost a home game this season and has only had 2 home games fall below a +3 mark. Even if Miami belongs in this group, home teams grow stronger as the season runs into the playoffs and close matchups are often lopsided blowouts for the winning team. There is a but coming. The “but” is that I like Miami with Fielder at the helm, and I believe the Cowboys “zero” defense is great against Bills and Skins that don’t protect the QB but will prove less effective against a QB like Brady last week or Fielder this week. And I am not a believer in the Cowboys soft schedule that has allowed them to look better than they truly are. However, ignoring that schedule, the stats they have generated look rock solid. So where do you go? I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and say that the Dolphins re-establish themselves as a top-tier team with a victory on turkey day. It is not a safe pick, but that is my pick.
Buffalo +3.5 NYG
Gotta be a better play on the board than this one.
SF +3 Baltimore
Hard to like the 49ers vs. Jamal after the way the Packers just shoved the ball down their throat. Hard to like the Ravens after Hasselback just tossed a career game against them.
Cincy +3 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has to win the division to make the playoffs and sweeping tiebreakers on both the Bengals and Ravens are the key. Steelers entire season on the line here, for real. I won’t take Cincy here but you are giving points to the better team if you play the Steelers. Did I hear something about Dillon starting again? Well, maybe in that case...
Indy –4 NE
4 has been a magically troublesome number lately. Here you have two solid teams in what looks to be a to-the-nails battle. More likely though, a blowout favoring the home team will ensue. Its not that I don’t think the well-prepared Patriots couldn’t pitch a dominant effort, but I just don’t think the odds support that gamble.
Arizona +4.5 Chicago
Horrible value but a smart play on Chicago, given the Cardinals road ineptness. Chicago may look past to Green Bay next week, or they may focus on this week...a game they might actually win. After balancing the scales, probably smart just to stick with value and the Cardinals. Watching GB on thanksgiving is bound to distract the Bears team. Beware of the rookie in the wings for the bears too.
Carolina –1.5 Philadelphia
To hedge that ½ point or not to hedge that ½ point, that ‘tis the question. Hey, I say it every week and certainly won’t backoff now: play Carolina. This team is playoff bound and are you seriously going to give up on a sure-fire playoff contender laying just 1.5 points at home? No way.
Rams –6 Vikings
Yes, I was right – still much trouble in Ramsville. Given that, the Vikings feel like a pretty safe play. This game evokes the fear of a Rams team that won’t need to punt all day long but the slump of the Rams team should have you feeling better. No value edge though.
Atlanta +3 Houston
The more the Falcons lose without Vick, the better his MVP will look next year for the team and league. They found something in Dunn, and lost that too. Go Texans.
New Orleans at Washington
I think that Boston college guy injected some confidence into the Redskins last week. They saw their offense CAN work. Saints are into their December losing and won’t win many more now. I’ll have to give a nod to the Skins although the fundamentally bad nature of both teams makes this a bit of a tossup. I just think that since most people feel McAlister will destroy the Skins on Sunday, he probably won’t.
Cleveland +5.5 Seattle
Fascinating to have Seattle coming off a big day passing go against the Browns, who seem to have some solid pass protection since teams want to eclipse the rushing record against them. Is Alexander that guy? Regardless, Seattle has given me little to think they will cover 6 points, even if they are 6-0 at home likely going to 7-0 this weekend. Maybe against Cleveland they will find the Jamal zone that will allow them to run out the clock on the lead. But doesn’t Cleveland look a little bit better than their run-torn reputation would have you think?
Denver –3 Oakland
I’m sure Shanahan feels bad for Oakland’s plight this year and will go easy. Oh yeah, whatever. So maybe this is a game where Oakland wants to play. Remember, though, that they looked like Matrix-ed slowed defenders on MNF with no hope to compete. Denver has the look of a top team but not the numbers to match resulting from Plummer’s hiatus. I heard the NFL live guys say that Plummer was a bust this year. Oh really? Talk to me on Monday. Bronco QBs are judged on these games.
KC –7 at San Diego
Speaking of getting up for a game, this might be San Diego’s turn. San Diego has talent to be dangerous on any given week should their defense pitch a half-decent effort. Vermeil has stated in non-coachspeak that he is worried about this game. If he is, I am too.
TB at Jacksonville +3.5
Fred Taylor is running again, and that could be trouble for the Bucs. Jacksonville is not going to let Leftwich throw away another game, not on primetime. So I favor the Jags here. You aren’t going to make money this season betting the Bucs every week anyway. Maybe every other week?
Tennessee –1 Jets
Value to the Titans. Jets continue to get too much hope and faith linewise on the shoulders of Pennington. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Jets can score 24 points. The problem lies in that I think the Titans can bang out 42. Doesn’t hurt that steady eddie finally had a run for more than 3 yards last week. I have a hunch Calico might make a national debut this week and McNair almost certainly will shine. Maybe you should just look at that over/under?
HAPPY THANKGIVING AND REMEMBER....CATS AREN’T BIRDS!
Getting right to it:
Detroit +7 GB
A quick look at history says that Detroit will hang 4 on turkey day and we know this organization hasn’t been blessed with great teams throughout the decades. Certainly in a down-and-out year, you have to respect their desire to pick a game where they will give it their Cincy-vs-KC all. Against GB, you certainly have a bettors chance of an Ahman Green fumble or a Farve thumb-oopsie. If Detroit gets these turnovers, you certainly have to respect their chances to cover. There are worse run defenses in the league than Detroit. As impressive as the Lombardi-like run blocking was last week that might lead you to think Detroit has no hope, you just have to realize that a team doesn’t look that good every week. Home +7 is rarely a bad call in this league. Because of the solid value in this line, its a top play.
Miami +3 Dallas
To quote many a tout, it is hard to go against Dallas here. Frankly, Dallas is in a statistical group of teams that has rarely lost a home game this season and has only had 2 home games fall below a +3 mark. Even if Miami belongs in this group, home teams grow stronger as the season runs into the playoffs and close matchups are often lopsided blowouts for the winning team. There is a but coming. The “but” is that I like Miami with Fielder at the helm, and I believe the Cowboys “zero” defense is great against Bills and Skins that don’t protect the QB but will prove less effective against a QB like Brady last week or Fielder this week. And I am not a believer in the Cowboys soft schedule that has allowed them to look better than they truly are. However, ignoring that schedule, the stats they have generated look rock solid. So where do you go? I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and say that the Dolphins re-establish themselves as a top-tier team with a victory on turkey day. It is not a safe pick, but that is my pick.
Buffalo +3.5 NYG
Gotta be a better play on the board than this one.
SF +3 Baltimore
Hard to like the 49ers vs. Jamal after the way the Packers just shoved the ball down their throat. Hard to like the Ravens after Hasselback just tossed a career game against them.
Cincy +3 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has to win the division to make the playoffs and sweeping tiebreakers on both the Bengals and Ravens are the key. Steelers entire season on the line here, for real. I won’t take Cincy here but you are giving points to the better team if you play the Steelers. Did I hear something about Dillon starting again? Well, maybe in that case...
Indy –4 NE
4 has been a magically troublesome number lately. Here you have two solid teams in what looks to be a to-the-nails battle. More likely though, a blowout favoring the home team will ensue. Its not that I don’t think the well-prepared Patriots couldn’t pitch a dominant effort, but I just don’t think the odds support that gamble.
Arizona +4.5 Chicago
Horrible value but a smart play on Chicago, given the Cardinals road ineptness. Chicago may look past to Green Bay next week, or they may focus on this week...a game they might actually win. After balancing the scales, probably smart just to stick with value and the Cardinals. Watching GB on thanksgiving is bound to distract the Bears team. Beware of the rookie in the wings for the bears too.
Carolina –1.5 Philadelphia
To hedge that ½ point or not to hedge that ½ point, that ‘tis the question. Hey, I say it every week and certainly won’t backoff now: play Carolina. This team is playoff bound and are you seriously going to give up on a sure-fire playoff contender laying just 1.5 points at home? No way.
Rams –6 Vikings
Yes, I was right – still much trouble in Ramsville. Given that, the Vikings feel like a pretty safe play. This game evokes the fear of a Rams team that won’t need to punt all day long but the slump of the Rams team should have you feeling better. No value edge though.
Atlanta +3 Houston
The more the Falcons lose without Vick, the better his MVP will look next year for the team and league. They found something in Dunn, and lost that too. Go Texans.
New Orleans at Washington
I think that Boston college guy injected some confidence into the Redskins last week. They saw their offense CAN work. Saints are into their December losing and won’t win many more now. I’ll have to give a nod to the Skins although the fundamentally bad nature of both teams makes this a bit of a tossup. I just think that since most people feel McAlister will destroy the Skins on Sunday, he probably won’t.
Cleveland +5.5 Seattle
Fascinating to have Seattle coming off a big day passing go against the Browns, who seem to have some solid pass protection since teams want to eclipse the rushing record against them. Is Alexander that guy? Regardless, Seattle has given me little to think they will cover 6 points, even if they are 6-0 at home likely going to 7-0 this weekend. Maybe against Cleveland they will find the Jamal zone that will allow them to run out the clock on the lead. But doesn’t Cleveland look a little bit better than their run-torn reputation would have you think?
Denver –3 Oakland
I’m sure Shanahan feels bad for Oakland’s plight this year and will go easy. Oh yeah, whatever. So maybe this is a game where Oakland wants to play. Remember, though, that they looked like Matrix-ed slowed defenders on MNF with no hope to compete. Denver has the look of a top team but not the numbers to match resulting from Plummer’s hiatus. I heard the NFL live guys say that Plummer was a bust this year. Oh really? Talk to me on Monday. Bronco QBs are judged on these games.
KC –7 at San Diego
Speaking of getting up for a game, this might be San Diego’s turn. San Diego has talent to be dangerous on any given week should their defense pitch a half-decent effort. Vermeil has stated in non-coachspeak that he is worried about this game. If he is, I am too.
TB at Jacksonville +3.5
Fred Taylor is running again, and that could be trouble for the Bucs. Jacksonville is not going to let Leftwich throw away another game, not on primetime. So I favor the Jags here. You aren’t going to make money this season betting the Bucs every week anyway. Maybe every other week?
Tennessee –1 Jets
Value to the Titans. Jets continue to get too much hope and faith linewise on the shoulders of Pennington. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Jets can score 24 points. The problem lies in that I think the Titans can bang out 42. Doesn’t hurt that steady eddie finally had a run for more than 3 yards last week. I have a hunch Calico might make a national debut this week and McNair almost certainly will shine. Maybe you should just look at that over/under?
HAPPY THANKGIVING AND REMEMBER....CATS AREN’T BIRDS!
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