Dr Ray
11-04-2006, 12:36 PM
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***CLEMSON (-17.5) 39 Maryland 12
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
I picked Clemson to lose straight up at Virginia Tech last week and now there is value going with the Tigers after they looked so bad on national TV. The Tigers offense was held to 166 yards at 3.0 yards per play by an inspired Hokies’ defense, but Clemson is still 1.3 yppl better than average offensively with their starting unit in the game (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they have especially exploited bad defensive teams this season. Maryland is a bad defensive team, as the Terrapins have surrendered 5.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team, so expect Clemson to move the ball at will in this game. The Terps are also 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (with starting QB Hollenbach in the game), averaging 5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. The Tigers’ defense has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl) and they haven’t allowed more than 4.6 yppl to any team all season. My math model projects a total yards advantage of 492 yards at 7.6 yppl for Clemson to 237 yards at 3.9 yppl for Maryland. What makes Maryland a decent team is their outstanding special teams, which rank among the top in the nation. Clemson has poor special teams, so I actually expect Maryland to score a touchdown, or set up an easy score, with their special teams play. But, even with a huge special teams edge for Maryland my math model still favors Clemson by 19 ½ points in this game. What makes the Tigers a very good play is a 45-6 ATS subset of a 314-168-11 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 208-113-5 ATS match-up indicator that both favor Clemson. Maryland has played one good team this season and they were spanked 24-45 at West Virginia in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates (they were out-gained 4.3 yppl to 7.5 yppl). Clemson, meanwhile, has won their home games by scores of 54-6 over Florida Atlantic, 52-7 over North Carolina, 51-0 over Louisiana Tech, and 31-7 over a good Georgia Tech team. I’ll look for another blowout home win for the Tigers today as they bounce-back from last week’s predictable loss. I’ll take Clemson in a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -18, and for 2-Stars from -18 ½ to -20 points (strong opinion at -20 ½ and -21).
3 Star Selection
***OREGON (-14.0) 39 Washington 16
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Washington is still being priced as if Isaiah Stanback is still at quarterback instead of the erratic Carl Bonnell, who has thrown 7 interception in 2 starts this season and 11 picks in his 122 career pass attempts. Stanback was 0.9 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback, but Bonnell has been just average (5.4 yppp this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I still rate Washington’s offense at 0.3 yards per play better than average, thanks to a good rushing attack, but Oregon is 0.8 yppl better than average defensively and one of the best pass defenses in the nation (4.5 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.7 yppp against an average defense). The Ducks are bad against the run, so Washington will have success on the ground, but my math model forecasts 4.7 yppl for the Huskies and just 18 points. Oregon’s offense has averaged 6.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow only 5.0 yppl to an average team) and the Ducks will have no trouble moving the ball against a sub-par Washington defense (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl to an average team) that has allowed 7.2 yppl in their last 3 games (against teams that would average 6.0 yppl). Oregon’s leading rusher Jonathan Stewart (639 yards at 5.9 ypr) missed most of last week’s game against Portland State, but he has practiced this week and is expected to be ready to play by Saturday. Backup running back Jeremiah Johnson has 457 at an even better 6.4 ypr, so Stewart’s absence wouldn’t hurt too much. My math model favors Oregon by 19 points and Washington applies to a 30-75-1 ATS negative momentum situation. I’ll take Oregon in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 points (strong opinion at -16 ½ or -17).
2 Star Selection
**Kansas 31 IOWA ST. (pick) 23
11:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Iowa State hasn’t won and covered the spread in the same game all season long, as their only two spread wins were double-digit losses as big underdogs. Kansas is only 3-5, but they’ve lost only 1 game by more than 3 points in regulation (there other 4 losses were by 3 points or less or in OT) and they Jayhawks have out-scored their opponents this season. Kansas has been just mediocre offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but coach Mark Mangino took the red-shirt off of freshman quarterback Todd Reesing last week and he led the Jayhawks to 20 2nd half points against a good Colorado defense for a comeback victory after being down 0-9 at the half. Reesling produced 103 yards on just 12 pass plays and ran for 93 yards on 6 rushing plays and he should prove to be a boost the a Kansas attack that already has a very good ground game with Jon Cornish running the ball (1041 yards at 5.4 ypr). Iowa State has struggled defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, and the Jayhawks should run the ball very well in this game. Kansas has been just as bad defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), but Iowa State is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and will be without their top running back Stevie Hicks for a second straight week. Hicks averages 4.9 ypr while the rest of the Iowa State backs average only 3.1 ypr, so his absence will probably hurt the Cyclones’ attack. My math model favors Kansas by 1 point, so the line is fair, but the Jayhawks apply to a very strong 63-14-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their ability to control the line of scrimmage in this game. That indicator has a 58% chance of covering at a fair line, which is good enough to make this a Best Bet. I’ll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I’ll consider the Jayhawks a Strong Opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½ points.
2 Star Selection
**WESTERN MICH (-11.5) 28 Miami Ohio 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
One of the keys to handicapping college football is finding the team that will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Normally teams that fit that description are huge favorites, but such teams are good bets when they are not. Western Michigan will dominate the line of scrimmage with their defense while their offense should also have an easy time running the ball. Miami-Ohio has a horrible offensive line that doesn’t open running lanes (just 3.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and can’t protect the quarterback (they allow 4.7 sacks per game against teams that combine to average just 1.9 sacks if you take out their games against Miami-Ohio). Western Michigan, meanwhile, has one of the most dominate defensive linemen in college football in Ameer Ismail, who has 14 sacks and 7 other tackles for loss. The Broncos are good all along their defensive line and they’ve allowed just 4.1 yprp while averaging 4.1 sacks per game (against teams that combine to allow 2.3 sacks if you take out their games against Western Michigan). Western Michigan is also better than average in pass defense, allowing 5.0 yards per pass play to teams that would average 5.3 yppp against an average team, and Miami’s offense is 1.1 yards per play worse than average overall. The only games in which Miami- Ohio has scored more than 14 points is against bad defensive teams (Purdue, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, and Ball State), so don’t expect much offense from the Redhawks in this game. Western Michigan is 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively with starting quarterback Bill Cubit in the game (he missed a few games early in the season), but the Broncos have a couple of solid backs that should have good production against a Miami- Ohio defense that has allowed 5.4 yprp to teams that would average only 4.4 yprp against an average defensive team. Western Michigan will control the line of scrimmage in this game and the Broncos qualify in a very good 224-121-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on that. My math model favors the Broncos by 15 points, so we also have some line value on our side. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 points or less (a Strong Opinion from -12 ½ to -14 points).
2 Star Selection
**TEXAS A&M 23 Oklahoma (-3.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Texas A&M is a surprising 8-1 this season with their only loss by just 4 points to Texas Tech and I’ll take the Aggies as an underdog at home, where they tend to play their best. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS as home the last 3 seasons, compared to just 6-9 ATS away from College Station, and the Aggies are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog or pick while covering those games by an average of 13 points. Oklahoma lost a lot offensively when All-American RB Adrian Peterson was lost for the season at the end of the Iowa State game, as the Sooners have been worse than average running the ball in two games without Peterson (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 4.2 yprp to an average team) and they’ve averaged just 4.3 yards per play overall in those two games (against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team). So, not only has Peterson’s absence affected the rushing attack, but opposing defenses no longer have to leave one or both safeties near the line of scrimmage to defend Peterson, so the Sooners’ pass attack has also suffered. Texas A&M is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, but Oklahoma is not as equipped now to take advantage of that defense. The Aggies are 0.3 yppl better than average offensively, but quarterback Stephen McGee has thrown just 1 interception in 9 games this season, so their attack has been very effective. Oklahoma’s defense has improved since losing to Oregon and the Sooners’ stop unit has been 1.1 yppl better than average in 4 conference games (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Overall, the math favors Oklahoma by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, and the Aggies apply to a very good 71-25-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a profitable 57% chance of covering at a fair line. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I’d consider the Aggies a Strong Opinion at +2 or +2 ½ points.
Strong Opinion
Missouri 27 NEBRASKA (-6.0) 28
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
This game sets up very nicely for a possible upset, as the Tigers apply to a 52-15 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation following last week’s loss, while Nebraska applies to a negative 17-58-1 ATS situation and a 48-94-1 ATS situation that are both based on their loss last week to Oklahoma State. The technical analysis has a 61% chance of working at a fair line and Nebraska by 6 points is what the fair line would be if Missouri hadn’t lost their best defensive player a few weeks ago. The Tigers are without star DE Brian Smith, who is Missouri’s career sacks leader and had recorded 7 ½ sacks this season prior to being hurt two weeks ago against Kansas State. Missouri went from being 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively to just average defensively in their last 2 games and the difference is 3 ½ points. My math model now favors Nebraska by 9 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up too much line value to make Missouri a Best Bet based on the very favorable situations. I’ll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’d make Missouri a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ILLINOIS 13 Ohio St. (-25) 32
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Illinois has quietly become a pretty competitive team. The Illini handed the controls of the offense to exciting freshman Juice Williams at the beginning of the conference season and Illinois has been 0.4 yards per play better than average in those 6 games, averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. What is surprising is that Illinois has allowed just 4.7 yppl in their last 6 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), so Ron Zook’s veteran defense (10 returning starters) is no pushover. Illinois has covered as an underdog all 4 times this season with Williams at quarterback and what keeps Illinois’ improvement under the radar is the fact that they continue to lose games straight up and are now just 2-7 for the season. Ohio State is a great team, but my math model projects the Buckeyes to out-gain the Illini just 368 yards to 283 yards. Ohio State has a huge edge in special teams, and I mean HUGE, and they have a 5 points edge in projected turnovers, but the math model favors the Buckeyes by only 24 ½ points. I fully expect Ohio State to score a touchdown with their special teams, but Illinois is still likely to keep this one close as good running teams make excellent bets as big underdogs. In fact, teams that average 175 yards or more rushing are 61% over the years as underdogs of 24 points or more and Illinois applies to an 80-36-4 ATS subset of that angle. Illinois has had problems with interceptions this season, but they can have some success by running the ball (my math model predicts 5.4 yards per rushing play for Illinois), which will burn time and reduce turnovers. I’ll consider Illinois a Strong Opinion at +24 to +25 1/2 points and I'll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +26 points or more (a 3-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more).
Strong Opinion
IDAHO 22 Nevada (-11.0) 27
02:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Nevada doesn’t have a good enough defense to be favored by double-digits on the road and the Wolf Pack actually qualify in a negative 20-65-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that is based on that premise. Nevada has only been 0.2 yards per play worse than average overall defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Wolf Pack’s inability to defend the run (5.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp) is what makes them a risky road favorite. Nevada is just average offensively, but they should move the ball well against a sub-par Vandals’ defense that has allowed 6.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Overall the math favors Idaho by 10 points and I’ll consider Idaho a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and for a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets up to +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NO CAROLINA ST. 21 Georgia Tech (-6.0) 22
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Georgia Tech is coming off a satisfying victory over Miami-Florida that pretty much locked up the Coastal Division title for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is just 11-19- 1 ATS after a victory under coach Chan Gailey and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yellow Jackets upset in this game. Georgia Tech is just average offensively and just 0.4 yards per play better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team), so they are hardly a dominate team. NC State is also average offensively, averaging 5.2 yppl in 5 games since Daniel Evans took over at quarterback – against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. NC State is also average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so there isn’t that much difference between these teams. Georgia Tech does have an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 2 points. Tech is probably going to letdown a bit given their history after a victory and NC State has played well at home with Evans at quarterback – beating Boston College and Florida State while losing to 7-1 Wake Forest by just 2 points. I’ll consider NC State in a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make NC State a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
San Jose St. (-6.0) 39 NEW MEXICO ST. 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
San Jose State is still not getting the respect that they deserve. The Spartans are a solid team, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. San Jose State does have poor special teams, but they are about average overall on a national scale – which is good for a WAC team. New Mexico State is 0.2 yppl better than average on offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl), but the Aggies are horrible defensively – allowing 6.8 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit. New Mexico State isn’t as bad as those yards per play numbers suggest since they run an average of 18 more plays per game than their opponents. That is factored into my math model, but I still favor San Jose State by 9 ½ points in this game. The Spartans also apply to a 136-63-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator, but statistical indicators don’t predict as well as situational angles, so that angle is not enough to make the Spartans a Best Bet even with the line value. I will consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at -6 or less and I’d make the Spartans a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
__________________
3 Star Selection
***CLEMSON (-17.5) 39 Maryland 12
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
I picked Clemson to lose straight up at Virginia Tech last week and now there is value going with the Tigers after they looked so bad on national TV. The Tigers offense was held to 166 yards at 3.0 yards per play by an inspired Hokies’ defense, but Clemson is still 1.3 yppl better than average offensively with their starting unit in the game (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they have especially exploited bad defensive teams this season. Maryland is a bad defensive team, as the Terrapins have surrendered 5.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team, so expect Clemson to move the ball at will in this game. The Terps are also 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (with starting QB Hollenbach in the game), averaging 5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack. The Tigers’ defense has yielded just 3.9 yppl this season (against teams that would average 5.1 yppl) and they haven’t allowed more than 4.6 yppl to any team all season. My math model projects a total yards advantage of 492 yards at 7.6 yppl for Clemson to 237 yards at 3.9 yppl for Maryland. What makes Maryland a decent team is their outstanding special teams, which rank among the top in the nation. Clemson has poor special teams, so I actually expect Maryland to score a touchdown, or set up an easy score, with their special teams play. But, even with a huge special teams edge for Maryland my math model still favors Clemson by 19 ½ points in this game. What makes the Tigers a very good play is a 45-6 ATS subset of a 314-168-11 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 208-113-5 ATS match-up indicator that both favor Clemson. Maryland has played one good team this season and they were spanked 24-45 at West Virginia in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates (they were out-gained 4.3 yppl to 7.5 yppl). Clemson, meanwhile, has won their home games by scores of 54-6 over Florida Atlantic, 52-7 over North Carolina, 51-0 over Louisiana Tech, and 31-7 over a good Georgia Tech team. I’ll look for another blowout home win for the Tigers today as they bounce-back from last week’s predictable loss. I’ll take Clemson in a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, for 3-Stars from -17 ½ to -18, and for 2-Stars from -18 ½ to -20 points (strong opinion at -20 ½ and -21).
3 Star Selection
***OREGON (-14.0) 39 Washington 16
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Washington is still being priced as if Isaiah Stanback is still at quarterback instead of the erratic Carl Bonnell, who has thrown 7 interception in 2 starts this season and 11 picks in his 122 career pass attempts. Stanback was 0.9 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback, but Bonnell has been just average (5.4 yppp this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I still rate Washington’s offense at 0.3 yards per play better than average, thanks to a good rushing attack, but Oregon is 0.8 yppl better than average defensively and one of the best pass defenses in the nation (4.5 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.7 yppp against an average defense). The Ducks are bad against the run, so Washington will have success on the ground, but my math model forecasts 4.7 yppl for the Huskies and just 18 points. Oregon’s offense has averaged 6.4 yppl this season (against teams that would allow only 5.0 yppl to an average team) and the Ducks will have no trouble moving the ball against a sub-par Washington defense (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl to an average team) that has allowed 7.2 yppl in their last 3 games (against teams that would average 6.0 yppl). Oregon’s leading rusher Jonathan Stewart (639 yards at 5.9 ypr) missed most of last week’s game against Portland State, but he has practiced this week and is expected to be ready to play by Saturday. Backup running back Jeremiah Johnson has 457 at an even better 6.4 ypr, so Stewart’s absence wouldn’t hurt too much. My math model favors Oregon by 19 points and Washington applies to a 30-75-1 ATS negative momentum situation. I’ll take Oregon in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 points (strong opinion at -16 ½ or -17).
2 Star Selection
**Kansas 31 IOWA ST. (pick) 23
11:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Iowa State hasn’t won and covered the spread in the same game all season long, as their only two spread wins were double-digit losses as big underdogs. Kansas is only 3-5, but they’ve lost only 1 game by more than 3 points in regulation (there other 4 losses were by 3 points or less or in OT) and they Jayhawks have out-scored their opponents this season. Kansas has been just mediocre offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but coach Mark Mangino took the red-shirt off of freshman quarterback Todd Reesing last week and he led the Jayhawks to 20 2nd half points against a good Colorado defense for a comeback victory after being down 0-9 at the half. Reesling produced 103 yards on just 12 pass plays and ran for 93 yards on 6 rushing plays and he should prove to be a boost the a Kansas attack that already has a very good ground game with Jon Cornish running the ball (1041 yards at 5.4 ypr). Iowa State has struggled defensively, allowing 5.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, and the Jayhawks should run the ball very well in this game. Kansas has been just as bad defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl), but Iowa State is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and will be without their top running back Stevie Hicks for a second straight week. Hicks averages 4.9 ypr while the rest of the Iowa State backs average only 3.1 ypr, so his absence will probably hurt the Cyclones’ attack. My math model favors Kansas by 1 point, so the line is fair, but the Jayhawks apply to a very strong 63-14-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their ability to control the line of scrimmage in this game. That indicator has a 58% chance of covering at a fair line, which is good enough to make this a Best Bet. I’ll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I’ll consider the Jayhawks a Strong Opinion from -1 ½ to -2 ½ points.
2 Star Selection
**WESTERN MICH (-11.5) 28 Miami Ohio 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
One of the keys to handicapping college football is finding the team that will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Normally teams that fit that description are huge favorites, but such teams are good bets when they are not. Western Michigan will dominate the line of scrimmage with their defense while their offense should also have an easy time running the ball. Miami-Ohio has a horrible offensive line that doesn’t open running lanes (just 3.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and can’t protect the quarterback (they allow 4.7 sacks per game against teams that combine to average just 1.9 sacks if you take out their games against Miami-Ohio). Western Michigan, meanwhile, has one of the most dominate defensive linemen in college football in Ameer Ismail, who has 14 sacks and 7 other tackles for loss. The Broncos are good all along their defensive line and they’ve allowed just 4.1 yprp while averaging 4.1 sacks per game (against teams that combine to allow 2.3 sacks if you take out their games against Western Michigan). Western Michigan is also better than average in pass defense, allowing 5.0 yards per pass play to teams that would average 5.3 yppp against an average team, and Miami’s offense is 1.1 yards per play worse than average overall. The only games in which Miami- Ohio has scored more than 14 points is against bad defensive teams (Purdue, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, and Ball State), so don’t expect much offense from the Redhawks in this game. Western Michigan is 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively with starting quarterback Bill Cubit in the game (he missed a few games early in the season), but the Broncos have a couple of solid backs that should have good production against a Miami- Ohio defense that has allowed 5.4 yprp to teams that would average only 4.4 yprp against an average defensive team. Western Michigan will control the line of scrimmage in this game and the Broncos qualify in a very good 224-121-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on that. My math model favors the Broncos by 15 points, so we also have some line value on our side. I’ll take Western Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 points or less (a Strong Opinion from -12 ½ to -14 points).
2 Star Selection
**TEXAS A&M 23 Oklahoma (-3.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Texas A&M is a surprising 8-1 this season with their only loss by just 4 points to Texas Tech and I’ll take the Aggies as an underdog at home, where they tend to play their best. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS as home the last 3 seasons, compared to just 6-9 ATS away from College Station, and the Aggies are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog or pick while covering those games by an average of 13 points. Oklahoma lost a lot offensively when All-American RB Adrian Peterson was lost for the season at the end of the Iowa State game, as the Sooners have been worse than average running the ball in two games without Peterson (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would combine to allow 4.2 yprp to an average team) and they’ve averaged just 4.3 yards per play overall in those two games (against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team). So, not only has Peterson’s absence affected the rushing attack, but opposing defenses no longer have to leave one or both safeties near the line of scrimmage to defend Peterson, so the Sooners’ pass attack has also suffered. Texas A&M is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively, but Oklahoma is not as equipped now to take advantage of that defense. The Aggies are 0.3 yppl better than average offensively, but quarterback Stephen McGee has thrown just 1 interception in 9 games this season, so their attack has been very effective. Oklahoma’s defense has improved since losing to Oregon and the Sooners’ stop unit has been 1.1 yppl better than average in 4 conference games (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Overall, the math favors Oklahoma by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, and the Aggies apply to a very good 71-25-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation that has a profitable 57% chance of covering at a fair line. I’ll take Texas A&M in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and I’d consider the Aggies a Strong Opinion at +2 or +2 ½ points.
Strong Opinion
Missouri 27 NEBRASKA (-6.0) 28
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
This game sets up very nicely for a possible upset, as the Tigers apply to a 52-15 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation following last week’s loss, while Nebraska applies to a negative 17-58-1 ATS situation and a 48-94-1 ATS situation that are both based on their loss last week to Oklahoma State. The technical analysis has a 61% chance of working at a fair line and Nebraska by 6 points is what the fair line would be if Missouri hadn’t lost their best defensive player a few weeks ago. The Tigers are without star DE Brian Smith, who is Missouri’s career sacks leader and had recorded 7 ½ sacks this season prior to being hurt two weeks ago against Kansas State. Missouri went from being 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively to just average defensively in their last 2 games and the difference is 3 ½ points. My math model now favors Nebraska by 9 ½ points and I’m not willing to give up too much line value to make Missouri a Best Bet based on the very favorable situations. I’ll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’d make Missouri a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
ILLINOIS 13 Ohio St. (-25) 32
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Illinois has quietly become a pretty competitive team. The Illini handed the controls of the offense to exciting freshman Juice Williams at the beginning of the conference season and Illinois has been 0.4 yards per play better than average in those 6 games, averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team. What is surprising is that Illinois has allowed just 4.7 yppl in their last 6 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), so Ron Zook’s veteran defense (10 returning starters) is no pushover. Illinois has covered as an underdog all 4 times this season with Williams at quarterback and what keeps Illinois’ improvement under the radar is the fact that they continue to lose games straight up and are now just 2-7 for the season. Ohio State is a great team, but my math model projects the Buckeyes to out-gain the Illini just 368 yards to 283 yards. Ohio State has a huge edge in special teams, and I mean HUGE, and they have a 5 points edge in projected turnovers, but the math model favors the Buckeyes by only 24 ½ points. I fully expect Ohio State to score a touchdown with their special teams, but Illinois is still likely to keep this one close as good running teams make excellent bets as big underdogs. In fact, teams that average 175 yards or more rushing are 61% over the years as underdogs of 24 points or more and Illinois applies to an 80-36-4 ATS subset of that angle. Illinois has had problems with interceptions this season, but they can have some success by running the ball (my math model predicts 5.4 yards per rushing play for Illinois), which will burn time and reduce turnovers. I’ll consider Illinois a Strong Opinion at +24 to +25 1/2 points and I'll take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +26 points or more (a 3-Star Best Bet at +28 points or more).
Strong Opinion
IDAHO 22 Nevada (-11.0) 27
02:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Nevada doesn’t have a good enough defense to be favored by double-digits on the road and the Wolf Pack actually qualify in a negative 20-65-1 ATS statistical profile indicator that is based on that premise. Nevada has only been 0.2 yards per play worse than average overall defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Wolf Pack’s inability to defend the run (5.9 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp) is what makes them a risky road favorite. Nevada is just average offensively, but they should move the ball well against a sub-par Vandals’ defense that has allowed 6.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Overall the math favors Idaho by 10 points and I’ll consider Idaho a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and for a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets up to +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
NO CAROLINA ST. 21 Georgia Tech (-6.0) 22
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
Georgia Tech is coming off a satisfying victory over Miami-Florida that pretty much locked up the Coastal Division title for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is just 11-19- 1 ATS after a victory under coach Chan Gailey and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yellow Jackets upset in this game. Georgia Tech is just average offensively and just 0.4 yards per play better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team), so they are hardly a dominate team. NC State is also average offensively, averaging 5.2 yppl in 5 games since Daniel Evans took over at quarterback – against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. NC State is also average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl), so there isn’t that much difference between these teams. Georgia Tech does have an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 2 points. Tech is probably going to letdown a bit given their history after a victory and NC State has played well at home with Evans at quarterback – beating Boston College and Florida State while losing to 7-1 Wake Forest by just 2 points. I’ll consider NC State in a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make NC State a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
San Jose St. (-6.0) 39 NEW MEXICO ST. 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-06
San Jose State is still not getting the respect that they deserve. The Spartans are a solid team, averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and allowing 5.0 yppl to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. San Jose State does have poor special teams, but they are about average overall on a national scale – which is good for a WAC team. New Mexico State is 0.2 yppl better than average on offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl), but the Aggies are horrible defensively – allowing 6.8 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit. New Mexico State isn’t as bad as those yards per play numbers suggest since they run an average of 18 more plays per game than their opponents. That is factored into my math model, but I still favor San Jose State by 9 ½ points in this game. The Spartans also apply to a 136-63-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator, but statistical indicators don’t predict as well as situational angles, so that angle is not enough to make the Spartans a Best Bet even with the line value. I will consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at -6 or less and I’d make the Spartans a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
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