The 'Lets Discuss the Bowl Games' Thread

[woodee12]

Contests are all well and good in here but they real objective is to find some good, solid, value plays. Value is in the eye of the beholder, but by putting our noggins together, maybe we can make a little cash. With all of us scatterted around the counrty, many have better coverage of certain teams. I follow college foots a lot and know about the teams playing but sometimes there is some often hidden un-public stuff that hits that can be shared. As we all know, motivation is key in college and bowl games are the perfect example. Lines makers know this and we know this. How do we find out what factors of motivation might be wrong?

So I hope this thread will be used to not only post plays but also offer reasons why we should look at one team and not the other or pass on the game all-together. Last night was a total pass for me with my real $$$$, and glad I did b/c I went 0-fer in the contest.

Post your thoughts on the games as they happen. Lets make some cash! Isn;t that the point?

Oregon vs. BYU...don;t have much of a clue on either and doing some research. My gut says take the points but BYU is hot and may carry that momentum on to the game. The game is in Vegas so many players may be sneaking out to hit the casinos and sportsbooks so if anyone sees a player at the sportsbook, let me know if the fix is in . I would play BYU -3 if I were doing it right now. But want some input from you guys who know these teams better.

[Boone Moone]

Woodee, the game tomorrow doesn't entice too much, but the Sunday night game makes me want to indulge somewhat........ Hawaii doesn't play a very tough schedule like the Pac-10 does, but this game is being played in Hawaii and the spread is at 8 points as I write this........If it were anybody but Arizona State, I'd probably back the Pac-10.................But these guy lost faith in themselves a long time ago, and these Hawaii trips have never done guys from the mainland any good........Hence, I look for the Hawaii boys to make a big statement in this game, and they will have the spread covered by the end of the 1st quarter.

Thinking that Arizona State will come back in the latter part of the game would be a reach, and they will probably revert to making the same mistakes they've made all year while trying to do so..................This game looks like a lopsided one to me, and I'm thinking that Hawaii wins this game as they please, and don't think that they'll have any mercy on an adversary that they would love to trounce..........Just my opinion on this mismatch.


The Thursday night game will depend on who shows up with the healthier team................BYU should beat an undermaned Oregon team, since they have all the aces on offfense.................If BYU has to start or play their backups, anything can happen...................A small play on BYU would be my go.....................Good Luck, and the Bowl Season is still young, so I won't be puttin' all of my eggs in this basket.

[Bettorsworld]

12/21 3* BYU -3 over Oregon - This is an interesting match up where we are once again going to visit the motivational well. As we say over and over, motivational and psychological edges are huge in college football, this time of year especially. Getting inside the heads of these teams goes hand in hand with statistical handicapping. When we look at these two teams, in our opinion, we have one team looking to make a statement going up against another that is more than likely just going through the motions. In Oregon, we have a team that had much bigger hopes than playing in a December 21st Bowl game in Las Vegas. Things we're looking good after a huge win over Oklahoma in September but then Oregon suffered it's first loss when they ran into the Cal buzzsaw dropping a 45-24 decision. They followed that game with a win over UCLA but things went down hill from there as they proceeded to win only twice more out of their last 6 games including dropping their last 3.

BYU on the other hand, started the season with a 16-13 loss to Arizona, then beat Tulsa, than traveled east and dropped a hard fought game to a very good Boston College team 30-23. But after that 1-2 start, they never looked back, rattling off nine straight wins with all but one of those being blow outs. BYU has a legitimate gripe in thinking it deserved a better Bowl game and you can bet they'll be fired up to prove it on Thursday night.

There's no question that Oregon played a tougher schedule than BYU. But you have to be careful not to penalize a team just because they played a weaker schedule. It's what they do with that schedule that you have to look at. If a team plays a weaker schedule, and struggles or looks less than impressive against that weak schedule, well, then maybe they aren't very good. However, if they play a weaker schedule, and plow right through that weaker schedule, like BYU did, well, then, maybe they're a pretty good damn football team. The bottom line is, BYU did what would be expected of any superior team playing weaker opposition. They blew them all of the field. When they did step up in class, such as playing at BC, they played very competitively. They actually took BC to double overtime and had a chance to win it but missed a field goal.

So, taking into consideration the schedule strengths and what each team did with those schedules, we still make BYU a touchdown favorite in this game and also feel they have the motivational edges as they look to prove their season was no fluke. Winning breeds winning and losing breeds more losing. BYU has won 9 straight while Oregon has dropped 3 straight and 4 of the last 6. We also have an Oregon team that is tied with a few others as the worst of all the bowl teams in turnover ratio at -10. Going up against a BYU team that ranks towards the top of all bowl teams in turnover ratio with a +14. That's a difference of 24 folks. Take any football game since the game was invented, and, providing that the game wasn't a talent mismatch, you'll find that the winner of the game was the team that made fewer mistakes. When you handicap a football game, you take past results and try and predict the most likely outcome of the future. It's really fairly elementary stuff we're talking about here. Providing this game is close, the team most likely to make a key mistake and cost themselves the game is the team that has done just that all year long....Oregon.

So, we'll take BYU here in a game that we feel is theirs if they want it. Currently there are all -3's out there but with a little luck we'll grab a -2.5 or better before kick off.