Early NFL thoughts

[jpehl]

I cant wait for this weekend to be here already. Im want to talk about a few games. First I really believe that the eagles run has come to an end. I really like the Saints in a blow out this weekend. The SD game is very questionable to me. The obvious pick is on the Chargers but i really would like some feed back on this game. I truely hate the seahawks, and i dont see any reason not to take the Bears. You can question Grossman but i think they will make sure he doesnt screw this one up. Its strange because I like the Ravens to go to the Superbowl but for some reason i have a feeling that the Colts cover this weekend. So thats really my first thoughts about this weekend. Feel free to add your opinion.
jpehl

[Boone Moone]

J-Pal............E-Mail me at [email protected] I'll tell you my true thoughts on this weekends games..........I'm still in the running for the "Bowls Contests" and screwed up by posting my thoughts too early during last weeks posts.............I'll post a thread regarding this weeks games right before kickoff on Saturday, but I don't want it to affect the strategy for this week's contests............Hey, call me a competitor............or call me whatever the f*ck you want

[Boone Moone]

Hey Jeff, I'm just being a "gamesman".........Notify me if I'm bending any rules.

[jpehl]

Sent

[jpehl]

you can erase it if you would like.
jpehl

[Boone Moone]

Why would I erase it?...............But give me until tomorrow to get back at you.

[KJALB]

OH come on Boone you have to post your thoughts before Sat how else can I make MY picks.....
Hey if I e-mail you will you tell me to

:LOL
KJALB:

[Boone Moone]

You're doing fine making your own picks KJALB (even though you're just jokin' with me)...........But it's not you that I'm worried about, it's the guys behind us !!

[jpehl]

Does anyone like the pats this weekend?
jpehl

[dragon1952]

As much as I like the Chargers, -5 seems awfully high considering that the Pats were 7-1 on the road this year and considering their recent playoff record and experience. The Pats do have a lot of injuries though and San Diego is pretty healthy and at home where they went 8-0. If you look at the Chargers schedule though, none of the teams they played at home had really solid years. Kansas City, Denver and Pittsburgh....arguably the 3 toughest matchups....all had pretty shaky years. New England did beat Jacksonville on the road, and both teams beat Cincinatti, although New England destroyed them. But then the Pats had a very ugly loss at Miami in a very meaningful game too. I personally think the Chargers 'D' will keep them in it and that they will pull out a win in the end. Merriman and Phillips (Shawne and Shaun) are not going to give Brady all day to throw for sure. New England only gave up more than 21 pts twice out of the 17 games so far so I doubt if San Diego hits their average here. I think this game will finish within a TD and if I had to pick a score I'd go with SD winning at around 24-20 or so.

[Boone Moone]

NEW ENGLAND / SAN DIEGO.........You're starting to hear the same old rhetoric that accompanies the Patriots to the playoffs just about every year............"There's no better duo than Bellechick and Brady"..........."The Patriots will rise to the occasion"................"New England has quietly moved on to the next level" and blah,blah,blah..............Well and good, but isn't this the same shit we were hearing last year when they went into Denver as a 5.5 dog, with the feared defense lead by Bruschi and Harrison etc, before promptly getting schooled by Champ Bailey and Co. and limping home to Boston for the winter?...........I just figure, if Jake Plummer could handle it, why not Phillip Rivers..............Now I know this Rivers kid won't soon make anyone forget about Joe Montana or even Dan Fouts (since were talking San Diego), but La Danian Tomlinson should be able to exploit the same holes in the New England defense that the New York Jets did last week...............Let's not forget that the Jets were actually in that game for quite sometime, before Pennington started to play like well, Chad Pennington.............That game sold me on the Chargers, you take a team with an offensive line that employs a bunch of piano movers, the best running back in recent NFL history, a tight-end that thinks he's a running back (Antonio Gates), and a defense led by a steroid-driven maniac, and I think they can make up for the shortcomings of a young, and still learning QB...............No opinion on a total here, but if I were to go that route, I'd go UNDER.

Just my thoughts J-Pal.............But I would advise you to stick with your own..........The last thing any gambler wants to do, is to change his own mind, and lose his money on someone else's picks.......Unless they're mine !!!........LOL......Good Luck Dude................Boone

[jpehl]

Okay well im going to go ahead and say that Im definitely taking NO and BALT. I really want to lean towards the pats but that just doesnt make since to me. Ive been watching the weather in the Chicago game and they are saying that ice and snow is expected. Well i still believe that this game will be taken out of Rexs hand. Personally i dont even think that Seattle will score more than nine points and i still say that the Bears d is good for 7. Im really uncomfortable with this weeks picks. Im thinking to myself that somewhere there has to be an upset. The way this season has gone it just seems to easy to play all the favorites and expect to win. Realistically this is the week of the playoffs that has the most blow outs. Is it possible to play all the favorites and be comfortable. Jeez now im trying to out think the books. I feel like my picks are to average and there missing something off the wall.I smell something fishy in the Philly game. This is the second time they will meet and its a totally different Philly team. Anyone else have some insight they would like to share, feel free to jump in.
jpehl

[dragon1952]

I could very well be wrong, but the only game I can even see possibly being a blowout is the Chicago game. I just see games within a TD either way in the other games. It looks like some pretty even matchups.

[cowboyfan2]

hey jpehl...i have been thinking about these games all week and changed my mind a couple of times too...its tough this week but know this - teams playing at home off 1st rd bye are 52-12 SU since 1990...that's powerful stuff...but also consider that all home favorites are favored by 4pts or more this week...and we all know that one of these games is likely decided by a FG...anyways...these are my thoughts...

Chicago -9....never changed my mind on this one...sharp money is on Bears and public is on Seattle at about 3 to 2....Seattle is sh!t and do not deserve to be in the playoffs....now i am no Grossman fan nor do i like the Bears...look at last meeting (no Alexander) and Chicago was favored by 3.5 and blew the doors off them....yes, its a tall number but i just dont see the Hawks scoring very much here and hopefully Grossman can take advantage the Seattle secondary like our Cowboys could not....this leads me to a rant...Seattle has Pete Hunter of all people playing in the secondary last week and we are trying to grind out a FG win against Seattle - we scored 1 f-ing offensive TD against Seattle and Romo gets the blame for dropping the snap...we should have been passing on them all f-ing night...parcells gets the blame for that...even if they made the FG with 1:20 left they would have passed on f-ing fatass roy williams and no doubt and at least set themselves up for game winning FG and seattle kicker josh brown doesn't miss

anyways - back to hawks...a wise man once told me that you only bet the dogs when you think they can WIN THE GAME...not just keep it close (within the spread)...Seattle is not winning this game so lay the lumber, expect defence or special teams to score or set up 7-10 pts, offence to put up 10-14 and i can only see seattle scoring 10 here...this means a cover is likely here...

Baltimore -4 ....this could be a close game but manning is known for meltdowns, colts D can't be expected to put forth same effort...ravens #1 D - also play the 3-4 that gives colts problems...colts haven't travelled well down the stretch and i think public is putting a little too much into last weeks colts win vs a KC team that shouldn't have even been in the playoffs...sharps are on Baltimore, public on Colts...i will tease the Ravens to +3 but i think they win the game by at least a FG...i dont like the number here but i am not backing the colts on the road...especially this colts team

saints -5 - original meeting had philly favored by 4 i think and they lost by a FG 27-24....now we have a full swing of 9 pts and saints are favored by 5....this is one where i could see an upset but i will back the saints...sharps and public are on saints here so i'm sure the books would like to see philly come thru as arguably philly is a better team now than they were in the first meeting...my feeling is that there will be a lot of emotion in NO this week and they do have the #1 offence and Lito Sheppard I believe is out with a dislocated elbow this week...you got Reggie Bush and the intangibles on the Saints side...this is one that i think could get out of control...huge Saints win would not surprise me...close philly win wouldn't surprise me either....i think you gotta go with NO here though

and finally,

SD -5....i was licking my chops here early in the week and thinking about Pats +5 and ML....Brady and Belichik vs Marty and Rivers...puhlease!!!....but public is betting the Pats here, sharps on SD, Pats beat a weak Jets team last week that hadn't beat anybody all year (except the Pats) and even then the game was close and Jets were having success moving the ball until the fluke lateral picked up by Wilfork and the INT returned for TD blew things open...i think (like Colts game) people putting too much into last week's game...chargers are pretty good at home and well rested...like Boone said - if Jake and last years Broncs can blow em out - then this years Chargers can too....just dont like the number 5...may as well be 6....

anyways - i think you take the home favs knowing you are going against the public on 3 of the 4 games and let it ride....maybe even do a ML parlay if the spreads scare you a little

CF2

[shawnl2000]

CF2 and J-Pal --- guys! – Can I input my thoughts too....

I hope ….It is ok to you Mr. Moone ? Dude…

Personally, I love Ravens and Chargers pick here, by the way great write up….Yeah!

At beginning of the year many people were predicting that INDIANAPOLIS or New England was meant to go semi-conference match up or maybe Super bowls bound. Forget about it, their futures are ending this weekend.

Both teams are on the roads this week; Colts (Dom Team) is on the road playing at cold outside temperature; thing will get Ugly here. I like Ravens on this spot to win by 7 points.

As for New England, again they are on road “Thousand miles from Cold climate weather” and will playing at hot climate weather stadium at San Diego. I remembered when they (NE) went down to Miami. They got smoked and shut down 21-0 by dolphins. I can see the same result here at San Diego. I can see Chargers will run away from them.

As for NFC matched ups – No idea about those games – I might need more researched on! Later…….

Good Luck!