Line moves. Money moves. Fade it?

[widestrides]

Can we learn anything from watching which way the money and the line goes?

At least this week, whichever way the money went, that was usually the wrong way to go. Is that the way it usually is? How can you tell smart money moves from dumb, public money moves? Are early and late money moves smart money and all else dumb money?

This week the money went to:
Texas A&M - wrong!
Oklahoma - right!
Notre Dame - wrong!
LSU - wrong!
Penn State - wrong!
Indiana - wrong!
Navy - wrong!
Arizona - wrong!
Washington - wrong!
Oregon - right!
BYU - right!

NFL
Colts - wrong! or push
Lions - very wrong!
Chargers - wrong!
Cardinals - right
Pittsburgh - right

[dragon1952]

That BYU line went from around -10.5 to -14.5 at my sports book. When it moves that much you kinda go hmmm...I wonder if someone knows something. You just figure when the line moves on a team like that somethings up as I don't think BYU is a big 'public' team. But yeah, looks like you can make money fading generally. This year I'd look at fading the Chargers for sure..at least until the public catches on.

[Bettorsworld]

Line moves are a tricky business.

For starters, even if following a move was profitable long term, it would only be profitable if you played the original number. If a game opens -8 and closes -10, playing the -10 on game day is suicide.

Early moves, late moves.......well, unless you're in the loop, you can never really know what's going on with a line move. Large groups, or large individual players routinely manipulate lines early in the week, (or early in the day for daily sports like hoops.) It takes alot less money to move numbers on say, Sunday night for next weeks games than it does to move a number on game day. Low limits on the openers. Pop the openers at cris, pinnacle and the greek and then all the copy cat books post their lines based on what those books have.....presto, a manipulated line. They come back later in the week and play the other side.

Just about all of the early line movement throughout the week is sharp/professional action. The average joe, 9 out of 10 times, doesn't bet until game day.

Thurday evening is Dr Bob time. All his games move when he puts them out.

Game time movement is from everyone.

My advice to anyone doing their own work, is to concentrate on getting the best number possible on YOUR plays. It takes three things to win.

1) decent handicapping (not great handicapping)
2) Getting the best number
3) Money management

You can't do one of the above well, and not the other two. You need all three to win.

[CapperMaster]

I agree with you on some points...you have to jump on that early line and lock in a good line..but I also disagree to a point about line moves..if we`re handicapping correctly, we should be anticipating the line move and bet accordingly..I had Cincy winning by 26/27 points over Marshall last week, if that line crept up to 26, I would back out..I guess there`s a fine line between professional handicapping and weekend bettors, we have to determine that line, not the public. What if a pro capper puts down $100,000 on a game, that line moves as much if that $100,000 was from the betting public.

[Bettorsworld]

A big whale/square can bet many thousands of dollars on a game and have no impact whatsoever on the line.

A known sharp/wiseguy can bet a dime on that same game and cause havoc on the board from that one small play.

Naturally if you have done your homework and you anticipate the line moving against you, you should play. Especially with a big favorite like Cincinnati that is going to have alot of bandwagoners as it is.

Not sure what you disagree on....did I say someplace not to get the best number????

My point to widestrides, and anyone else interested, is to concentrate on getting the best numbers on YOUR games.....the games you are going to bet, and don't get caught up with trying to determine smart money, sharp moves, public money, etc.etc.....if you win your wager, YOU were the smart money

[CapperMaster]

sorry...I read something incorrectly..thought you had said to wait for line shifts...

[dallascowboys78]

I got a friend who manages one of the costa rican books and from what he tells me, one of the biggest misconceptions is that people think the public moves lines....The only way a line moves is by a group of people moving it...I dont really pay attention to that stuff..I just go with my first instinct

[CapperMaster]

the casinos and sportsbooks move the lines to even out the money, so they don`t take a beating on a handfull of games and lose a ton of money.

[widestrides]

Bettorsworld said,
"A big whale/square can bet many thousands of dollars on a game and have no impact whatsoever on the line. A known sharp/wiseguy can bet a dime on that same game and cause havoc on the board from that one small play."

Hmmm? So a book will take in as much "square" money as they can without adjusting the line to attract some money to the other side? I thought they want to go into a game with equal money on each side, so that they are not gambling themselves. Or do they know the squares will eventually lose?

So if the line moves significantly, making the "unpopular" team more attractive to you, should you be concerned or encouraged by who it is that is making that line move? According to BW, only smart money makes a line move. Then the smart money just had a bad week this week. So I assume you should be careful even if a line move tempts you to bite and take the other side?

I'd love to see a long term study of games where the closing line moved a point or more from the opening line and what % of the times that move was right or wrong.

[TheBlackCat]

The line itself is not that sharp a tool to really sway the outcome if moved by a 1/2 point or whatever. So the only question in play is really how wise the $$$ that moves the line really is.

I believe the line just moves in the direction of conventional wisdom. Favorites tend to go higher and popular dogs tend to get smaller. I don't find much insight in them. I do prefer to take my favorites early and my dogs late because the tendency is to get a better number over the long haul. Coincidentally, the Black Cat Top 100 picks are posted very early this week. :-)

[Bettorsworld]

Books don't balance action.

Sure, that is what is attempted. But rarely is a sportsbook ever balanced on a game.

Books make money because they have "the best of it" on every proposition.

If a book has 20 people bet on a game, and they each bet a dime. Let's say 15 players take side A. 5 Players take side B.

So, if side A wins the book pays out 15k, and they take in 5500 on the side B losers. They are a net loser of -9500 on the game.

If side B wins they pay out 5k, and take in 16,500. Their net on this game is +11,500.

So the book is RISKING 9500 to win 11,500 on the proposition. That's a little better than +120 on a wager that the players lay -110 on. At those odds, you can't help but to make money OVER THE LONG RUN.

Huge books do it with volume. They make money no matter which side wins.

But the whole idea of a book being balanced on every game just isn't reality. They generally have a position. A favorable one at that.

As far as the line moves......It's not that a book will take unlimited square action without moving the line. A steady flow of wagers on one side will force them to move the number. But at the same time, there are plenty of books that will not even blink at a 10 dime wager from a square, yet would limit a sharp player to a dime or less AND move the number immediately after he plays.

It takes a sportsbook one or two wagers to figure out what kind of player they are dealing with.

A guy comes in and bets a game and lays -21 when the game is -19.5 at half a dozen other books, the book will give that guy whatever he wants. Hell, they'll probably give him vacation packages, plasma tv's, whatever it takes to get this guy to keep firing away. Because he WILL lose long term.

But again, don't misunderstand me.....not just sharp/wiseguy action moves lines.....if a game is flowing with one way action from everyone, it will move......someone mentioned the BYU game last week.....that game was played by some sharps but it was also a huge service play. Tons of services had BYU as their big game. So, one way action,,,,squares, sharps, services.......big line move.

So, let me sum up the point I was trying to make to anyone interested.

If you do your own work, and are confident in the work you do, and have had some degree of success in the past, don't WORRY about who is moving a line. Concentrate on getting the best number ON THE SIDE YOU LIKE. Check to make sure the line didn't move because of an injury you weren' aware of. Check to make sure there isn't a weather condition making the line move.

Remember this too. The sharpest wiseguy in the world having a very successful season, it STILL going to lose 40% of the time. So why let him talk you out of a wager if you are on the other side? It might be one of his 40% losers........let him and any sharps on his side move the number and create even more value for you and your wager.........hey, you can both win if it lands in the middle.

1) Handicapping
2) Money Management
3) Getting the best number

Not in any specific order. All three are equally important.

Cheers!

[widestrides]

Great info. Very informative, helpful thread.

Thanks!

[statman02]

good information......thanx for posting

[khandor]

Books don't balance action.

Sure, that is what is attempted. But rarely is a sportsbook ever balanced on a game.

Books make money because they have "the best of it" on every proposition.

If a book has 20 people bet on a game, and they each bet a dime. Let's say 15 players take side A. 5 Players take side B.

So, if side A wins the book pays out 15k, and they take in 5500 on the side B losers. They are a net loser of -9500 on the game.

If side B wins they pay out 5k, and take in 16,500. Their net on this game is +11,500.

So the book is RISKING 9500 to win 11,500 on the proposition. That's a little better than +120 on a wager that the players lay -110 on. At those odds, you can't help but to make money OVER THE LONG RUN.

Huge books do it with volume. They make money no matter which side wins.

But the whole idea of a book being balanced on every game just isn't reality. They generally have a position. A favorable one at that.

As far as the line moves......It's not that a book will take unlimited square action without moving the line. A steady flow of wagers on one side will force them to move the number. But at the same time, there are plenty of books that will not even blink at a 10 dime wager from a square, yet would limit a sharp player to a dime or less AND move the number immediately after he plays.

It takes a sportsbook one or two wagers to figure out what kind of player they are dealing with.

A guy comes in and bets a game and lays -21 when the game is -19.5 at half a dozen other books, the book will give that guy whatever he wants. Hell, they'll probably give him vacation packages, plasma tv's, whatever it takes to get this guy to keep firing away. Because he WILL lose long term.

But again, don't misunderstand me.....not just sharp/wiseguy action moves lines.....if a game is flowing with one way action from everyone, it will move......someone mentioned the BYU game last week.....that game was played by some sharps but it was also a huge service play. Tons of services had BYU as their big game. So, one way action,,,,squares, sharps, services.......big line move.

So, let me sum up the point I was trying to make to anyone interested.

If you do your own work, and are confident in the work you do, and have had some degree of success in the past, don't WORRY about who is moving a line. Concentrate on getting the best number ON THE SIDE YOU LIKE. Check to make sure the line didn't move because of an injury you weren' aware of. Check to make sure there isn't a weather condition making the line move.

Remember this too. The sharpest wiseguy in the world having a very successful season, it STILL going to lose 40% of the time. So why let him talk you out of a wager if you are on the other side? It might be one of his 40% losers........let him and any sharps on his side move the number and create even more value for you and your wager.........hey, you can both win if it lands in the middle.

1) Handicapping
2) Money Management
3) Getting the best number

Not in any specific order. All three are equally important.

Cheers!

Bettersworld,

(1) For the most, what you've written there is sound information.

(2) Not sure, however, if you realize the inherent contradiction which exists between the part I've bolded for you and the two parts I've underlined. Do you?

(3) FYI ... I've placed a couple of messages directed towards you, in the NFL GOTW Contest thread, to which you have not responded, yet. What's the reason for this?

Thanks.

[ttamsox]

Great post... very informative!