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[Dr Ray]

Winning Points

College Best Bets Wyoming over T.C.U. by 18 31-13
Georgia over Tenn. by 20 37-17

Preferred Rutgers over Cinn. by 16 33-17
Ill. over Wisky by 14 31-17
Vanderbilt over Auburn by 3 24-21
Ohio State over Purdue by 18 37-19

Pro's Best Bets Tampa Bay over Colts by 10 30-20
San Diego over Denver by 14 37-13

Preferred Wash. over Detroit by 14 31-17
Balto. over San Fran. by 12 26-14

[Dr Ray]

Red Sheet 10/06


89 Wyoming (Wyoming 27 - TCU 13)
89 Clemson (Clemson 27 - V Tech 10)
88 UCLA (UCLA 45 - Notre Dame 13)
88 Georgia (Georgia 26 - Tenn 22)
88 Ohio St (Ohio St 42 - Purdue 22)
88 Chiefs (KC Chiefs 20 - Jax 16)

Near Choices (Rated 87) Missouri,Cincinnati,Texas Tech,Hawaii.
NFL Redskins,Patriots,Cowboys

[Dr Ray]

Goldsheet Oct 4th- Oct 8th

THE GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Carolina 20 - NEW ORLEANS 19--Saints (0-3) desperate to get back in NFC South race, but now they'll have to do it without their "hammer," RB Deuce McAllister (ACL). Going back to LY's NFL title game in Chicago, N.O. has now lost four straight by 25, 31, 17 & 17! Drew Brees (1 TD, 7 ints. TY) off target, and without Deuce, opponents can now focus more attention on Reggie Bush. Carolina has covered six straight as a visitor in the series!

(06-CAR. 21-N. Orl. 18...N.22-20 C.29/167 N.23/63 N.28/38/0/344 C.19/29/0/157 C.0 N.1)

(06-Car. 31-N. ORL. 21...C.20-13 C.33/106 N.17/61 N.20/29/1/236 C.23/27/0/207 C.0 N.1)

(06-CAROLINA -7 21-18, Carolina -3 31-21...SR: Carolina 14-10)

KANSAS CITY 20 - Jacksonville 10--Chiefs improving, as Larry Johnson smashed for 125 YR at S.D., and impressive rookie WR Dwayne Bowe had his second straight good game (8 for 184 yds., 1 TD). Recent return of DE Jared Allen to join with DE Tamba Hali and LBs Donnie Edwards & Deron Johnson gives K.C. a very timely pass rush. Are reports from Jacksonville true that Jags' big DTs Henderson & Stroud are slowing due to the wear & tear of past few years? Chiefs 12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 home.

(06-K. CITY 35-Jack. 30...J.24-23 K.40/170 J.22/113 J.23/40/1/284 K.16/25/2/225 K.1 J.0)

(06-KANSAS CITY -2' 35-30...SR: Jacksonville 4-2)

WASHINGTON 27 - Detroit 20--Acknowledge that the Mike Martz' Detroit "O" is effectively spreading the field and taxing opposing defenses (as the Bears discovered last week). But still no indication that Lions' own porous pass defense can hold up for 60 minutes. Thanks to now-healthy Clinton Portis and LaDell Betts combo providing a potent Washington ground force, QB Jason Campbell can take big-play shots to WRs Moss & Randle El against Detroit's shaky secondary. Jon Kitna has been sacked 21 times in 4 games.

(04-Washington +3' 17-10...SR: Washington 28-10)

OVER THE TOTAL TENNESSEE 31 - Atlanta 19--Not quite the Vince Young-Michael Vick showdown this one figured to be when schedule was announced! And for his part, Young certainly not disappointing (Tenn. now 3-0 vs. line TY, and 13-2 last 15 on board!), although Norm Chow's carefully-constructed offense mostly relying on physical ground component to provide balance and move chains. Joey Harrington (4 TDs, 0 ints. last 2 games, both at home) improving, but so is confident, aggressive Titan defense. But with Joey developing in Petrino attack, Tenn. should get back on LY's 13-3 "over" track.

(03-Tennessee -6' 38-31...SR: Tennessee 6-5)

Miami 17 - HOUSTON 16--Based on early results, Cam Cameron not faring any better in Miami than he did in his last stint as a head coach with the Indiana Hoosiers in the late '90s. But Cameron might finally be catching a break, especially if Houston again minus the big-play components (WRs A. Johnson & and rookie speedburner J. Jones, plus RB A. Green) it was when losing in Atlanta last week. Dolphin QB Trent Green still shaky looking downfield, but at least RB Ronnie Brown (246 YR, 12 recs. last 2) providing solid production.

(06-HOU. 17-Miami 15...H.19-15 M.14/70 H.33/65 M.23/39/0/219 H.22/29/1/211 H.1 M.0)

(06-HOUSTON +3' 17-15...SR: Houston 2-0)

PITTSBURGH 24 - Seattle 23--Rematch of Super Bowl "Extra Large" (XL) in the 2005 season, won by the Steelers by virtue of a couple of big plays, several drops by Seahawk receivers, and a few marginal calls by the "zebras." Mike Holmgren now holds a big experience edge over rookie counterpart Tomlin. And, while Pittsburgh S Troy Polamalu (check status) suffered an abdominal injury last week, Seattle's extra-dimension OLB Julian Peterson coming off huge game (3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles at S.F.). Steelers "over" 37-11-1 at home; Seahawks "over" 15-4-1 away.

(05-Pittsburgh -4 21-10 (Super Bowl XL)...SR: Seattle 8-7)

NEW ENGLAND 38 - Cleveland 21--First meeting of Bill Belichick vs. former def. coord. Romeo Crennel since the latter left to take over in Cleveland after the Super Bowl of the 2004 season. Browns can't match the Pats' enhanced 2007 firepower, but they have improved their own offense enough to go "over" 6 of their last 9 on the road & all 4 TY! N.E. "over" 8 of last 9 (prior to Monday nighter in Cincy), with Tom Brady never looking better. One Derek Anderson mistake might be enough help for Pats to cover big number.

(04-New England -11 42-15...SR: Cleveland 12-8)

Arizona 23 - ST. LOUIS 16--Banged-up Rams at least will have starting CB Fahkir Brown off the suspended list for this game, not that he will make a definitive difference considering all their offensive injuries (especially RB Steve Jackson, groin; check status; and OL). And things have changed greatly in Arizona, with Ken Whisenhunt daring to employ a two-QB system, E. James (354 YR) running well despite OL injuries, and the defense (DT Darnell Dockett 5½ sacks TY) playing with renewed fury.

(06-St. Lou. 16-ARIZ. 14...A.20-18 A.28/101 S.28/63 S.21/31/0/301 A.19/28/3/246 S.2 A.1)

(06-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 20...S.26-24 A.37/137 S.23/107 S.27/45/3/287 A.15/24/0/179 A.0 S.0)

(06-St. Louis +4' 16-14, Arizona +6' 34-20...SR: St. Louis 31-24-2)

NY GIANTS 24 - NY Jets 16--Same home stadium for both, but Giants the home team, as they control the tickets (thus, will have more fans). Their 12-sack performance vs. Philly was eye-opening, and surprising RB Derrick Ward boosted his rushing total to 353 yards. Meanwhile, the Jets are having problems running, pass rushing (only 3 sacks TY), and intercepting (only 2 picks in 4 games). Nature of rivalry says underdog "Jets," but fundamentals say "Giants."

(2006 Preseason: NY Jets -2' beat NY Giants 20-12 at East Rutherford)

(03-NY Giants -2' 31-28 (OT)...SR: NY Giants 6-4)

Tampa Bay 21 INDIANAPOLIS 20--Both teams have won the Super Bowl since Jon Gruden replaced Tony Dungy in Tampa Bay in 2002. Now, veteran QBs Manning & Garcia match wits in trying to crack the defenses of Tampa-Two zone gurus Tony Dungy & his former def. coord., Monte Kiffin, still with the Bucs. Garcia (64%, no ints. TY) saw Indy LY in his first start replacing Donovan McNabb with the Eagles. Check last week's injuries of Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai & Cadillac Williams, as Colts' injuries would greatly even things out. But even with all at full health, Bucs playing well, with defense enjoying youthful infusion and also limiting big plays.

(03-Indianapolis +4' 38-35 (OT)...SR: Indianapolis 6-4)

DENVER 27 - San Diego 20--Chargers scored a rare sweep in 2006 over the Broncos, who are a rather startling 1-10 vs. the spread their last 11 home games! Now, both teams are down in the dumps, searching to find ways to win. With super-quick CBs Champ Bailey & Dre' Bly to go one-on-one vs. S.D. WRs, you can be sure Denver will gang up on LaDainian Tomlinson and dare Philip Rivers to beat them. While the Broncs having problems stopping the the run, the Charger defense (26 ppg) greatly misses former def. coord. Wade Phillips.

(06-S. Diego 35-DEN. 27...S.21-20 D.35/158 S.29/125 S.19/26/2/217 D.13/28/1/168 S.0 D.0)

(06-S. DIEGO 48-Den. 20...S.22-19 D.28/162 S.36/143 S.15/23/0/276 D.17/30/0/166 S.1 D.1)

(06-San Diego +2' 35-27, SAN DIEGO -7' 48-20...SR: Denver 52-41-1)

Baltimore 19 - SAN FRANCISCO 13--With Alex Smith suffering a shoulder injury, it could be up to 14-year veteran Trent Dilfer (only 12 of 33 last week, with 2 ints.) to try to beat the team he enjoyed a Super Bowl victory with back in the 2000 season. Niners HC Nolan later left Baltimore to take over in S.F.! Now, the Ravens (0-5 last 5 as road favorite) have more guns as each tries to avoid falling under .500. Niners "under" 9 of last 13; might be best way to go.

(03-BALTIMORE -3 44-6...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*GREEN BAY 27 - Chicago 20--Will ride with surging Packers (eight straight wins) and Brett Favre vs. Chicago's injury-thinned defense. Change to Brian Griese (3 ints. last week at Detroit) was not the answer for Bears' offense, while G.B. exhibiting impressive intangibles and momentum. Even without a forceful ground game, record-setting QB Favre demonstrating recent uncommon care with the ball (66%, only two ints. TY). Do Bears miss RB Thomas Jones more than they thought? REGIONAL TV--NBC

(06-Chi. 26-G. BAY 0...C.18-14 C.36/109 G.23/103 C.19/27/1/252 G.16/30/2/164 C.0 G.1)

(06-G. Bay 26-CHI. 7...G.20-13 C.24/135 G.34/97 G.21/42/1/276 C.8/28/5/181 G.0 C.1)

(06-Chicago -3' 26-0, Green Bay +3 26-7...SR: Chicago 88-79-6)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8

*Dallas 27 - BUFFALO 13--While Dallas' OL is big & healthy and Cowboys defense has welcomed back CB Terence Newman & LB Greg Ellis, Buffalo is thin in the OL, ripped with injuries on defense, and hoping that QB J.P. Losman will make a quick recovery from a sprained knee and perhaps be available (check status). Tony Romo (11 TDs, 3 ints.) "in a zone" right now, and Wade Phillips' defense becoming more aggressive. The latter is likely to be too much vs. Bills' rookie QB Trent Edwards (22 of 28, 1 TD, 1 int. in starting debut). CABLE TV--ESPN

(03-DALLAS -4 10-6...SR: Dallas 6-3)







MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Dallas and Buffalo on Monday Night

Dallas is 21-16 straight-up and 19-17-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
14-12 straight-up and 9-17 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.

Buffalo is 8-5 straight-up and 8-4-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
9-15 straight-up and 9-14-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football

HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 1996 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2003 Reg. Seas.: Dallas -4 beat Buffalo 10-6 at Dallas
1996 Reg. Seas.: Buffalo +6' beat Dallas 10-7 at Buffalo

PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)

Favorites vs. Pointspread

Favored by 1-6½ points Won 84, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 32, Lost 25, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 116, Lost 114, Tied 6

Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 29, Lost 31
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 114, Lost 116, Tied 6

2007 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS

Cincinnati -2½ beat Baltimore 27-20 at Cincinnati o40
San Francisco -3 beat Arizona 20-17 at San Francisco u45
Washington +6½ beat Philadelphia 20-12 at Philadelphia u39
Tennessee +4½ beat New Orleans 31-14 at New Orleans n45




NFL KEY RELEASES



KANSAS CITY by 10 over Jacksonville

TAMPA BAY by 1 over Indianapolis

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

OVER THE TOTAL in the Atlanta-Tennessee game




College Analysis

KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4

*Kentucky 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 25--Although RS frosh QB Smelley gave South Carolina's "fun & gun" a lift in 38-21 win vs. Mississippi State, still prefer hot, confident 5-0 UK (best start since 1954!), ready, willing and able to end 7-game series losing streak. Cats sizzling Heisman hopeful sr. QB Woodson (67%, 16 TDs, 1 int.) owns more proven big-play weapons at WR (Burton & Lyons have combined 53 catches) than 'Cocks. And Brooks' opportunistic squad (+7 TO margin) less likely to make crucial error than Carolina (11 giveaways, -4 TO margin). Coming Cats now 9-1 vs. spread last 10. TV--ESPN

(06-S. Car. 24-KY. 17...S.21-17 S.39/190 K.27/62 K.18/32/1/289 S.15/23/1/193 S.0 K.0)

(06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16 04-Usc -13 12-7...SR: South Carolina 11-6-1)

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 5

*LOUISVILLE 41 - Utah 31--Since L'ville's beleaguered defense wasn't adequately tested vs. nicked-up & limited North Carolina State week ago, interested in taking generous number with Utah, 15-5 in profitable road dog role since '97. Utes now-healthy QB B. Johnson, tackle-breaking 6-2, 220 RB Mack (328 YR last 3 games) & mates equipped to trade points with Brohm-led Cards, who haven't looked as scintillating under new HC Kragthorpe as under predecessor Petrino (generating 7 ppg fewer TY).

TV--ESPN (DNP...SR: Utah 2-0)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 6

TEMPLE 30 - No. Illinois 27--Temple just 1-27 SU last 3+Ys, but believe hungry, more athletic Owls (3-2 vs. spread, outgained Army 463-329!) able to eke out much-needed win vs. struggling NI squad (trailed Central Mich. 35-10 at H!) getting unsteady play from mistake-prone jr. QB Nicholson (9 ints. so far; benched in 2nd H vs. CMU last week). Husky DL is seriously banged-up, and NI on road for 3rd straight week.

(06-N. ILL. 43-Temple 21...N.26-12 N.35/89 T.22/M6 N.27/42/1/377 T.20/29/1/322 N.0 T.2)

(06-NORTHERN ILLINOIS -32 43-21...SR: Northern Illinois 2-0)

West Virginia 47 - SYRACUSE 13--Developing Orange QB A. Robinson starting to find quality WRs T. Smith & M. Williams with more regularity. But sinking Syracuse defense springing leaks fore (allowed 966 YR vs. Washington, Illinois & Miami-O.) and aft (permitted 845 YP at Iowa & Louisville). Mountaineer soph QB Jarrett Brown a capable replacement if injured star Pat White can't make post.

(06-W. VA. 41-Syr. 17...W.23-14 W.45/457 S.35/81 S.9/22/0/146 W.13/20/1/105 W.2 S.1)

(06-WVA -25' 41-17 05-Wva +2 15-7 04-WVA -15' 27-6...SR: Syracuse 30-24)

RUTGERS 27 - Cincinnati 26--Rejuvenated Bearcats brimming with confidence after mauling 5 non-conf. foes by a combined 232-53! Creative new HC Kelly & QB Mauk (Wake transfer) have brought balance to offense, and relentlessly-attacking Cincy defense already has 21 takeaways. Revenge-minded Rutgers fortunate to escape with straight-up win.

(06-CINCY 30-Rut. 11...C.15-14 C.46/125 R.21/50 C.11/15/0/277 R.21/42/4/238 C.3 R.0)

(06-CINCY +6' 30-11 05-RUTGERS -13' 44-9...SR: Rutgers 7-4-1)

ILLINOIS 30 - Wisconsin 23--Wisconsin's HC Bielema has a 17-1 record at the school, but by his own admission, the Badgers don't get any points for style. Illinois HC Ron Zook, conversely, is getting lots of production from frosh sensation WR Rejus Benn (scored a TD on his first KO return as a collegian), and defense is markedly improved thanks to sr. LB J Leman & star soph CB Vontae Davis. Badger defense far from bulletproof. Illini take another step forward if QB Juice Williams minimizes mistakes.

(06-WIS. 30-Ill. 24...W.16-14 I.41/121 W.41/99 W.15/26/1/217 I.13/30/1/171 W.1 I.1)

(06-WIS. -21 30-24 05-Wis. -20' 41-24 04-WIS. -15 24-7...SR: Illinois 35-33-7)

INDIANA 45 - Minnesota 26--Indiana bounced back with an impressive performance at Iowa, as the defense recorded 9 sacks and QB Kellen Lewis threw for 322 yards in a romp at Iowa City. Not impressed with Minny's half-pt. cover against Ohio St., as Gophers remain last in national pass defense. Improved Hoosiers capable of avenging last season's humiliation at Metrodome.

(06-MINN. 63-Ind. 26...I.26-24 I.37/165 M.25/163 M.22/33/0/378 I.27/47/3/335 M.0 I.0)

(06-MINN. -6 63-26 05-Minn. -12' 42-21 04-IND. +17' 30-21...SR: Minnesota 36-25-3)

MICHIGAN STATE 42 - Northwestern 19--In the 3 games since star RB Sutton was injured, NU QB Bacher has thrown 7 ints. and no TD passes. Bacher under constant pressure, and the Wildcat OL will have problems keeping aggressive MSU defensive front at bay. Spartan QB Hoyer improving each week (323 YP last week; 6 TD passes, only 1 int. the last 2 weeks).

(06-Msu 41-N'WSRN 38...M.25-19 N.35/177 M.28/96 M.32/43/2/340 N.16/30/2/263 M.1 N.0)

(06-Msu -8 41-38 05-Northwestern +13 49-14...SR: Michigan State 32-15)

Miami-Florida 26 - NORTH CAROLINA 13--Hurricanes blowing away their backers' money on road lately, covering just 1 of last 7 away from Orange Bowl. Still, former Miami HC Butch Davis has a long way to go with Tar Heels. Favor visitor based on sr. QB Wright's experience edge over RS frosh Carolina counterpart Yates and superior Hurricane defense.

(06-MIAMI 27-N. Carolina 7...N.17-14 M.31/144 N.28/58 N.13/36/2/186 M.15/26/0/180 M.0 N.1)

(06-MIAMI -19 27-7 05-MIAMI -20' 34-16 04-UNC +21' 31-28...SR: EVEN 5-5)

Wake Forest 23 - DUKE 21--Although SU wins remain elusive, slowly-blossoming Blue Devils have covered 4 straight (all on road). Soph QB T. Lewis (9 TDP last 3 games) sparking offense, and Duke defense mostly holding its own. Defending ACC champ Wake (covered just 5 of last 26 as chalk!) gets all it can handle from scrappy host.

(06-W. FOR. 14-Duke 13...D.24-14 D.39/62 W.24/57 D.21/32/0/305 W.22/29/0/235 W.2 D.2)

(06-WFU -20' 14-13 05-Wfu -13' 44-6 04-WFU -16' 24-22...SR: Duke 53-32-2)

BALL STATE 45 - Central Michigan 27--Still-potent CMU offense & versatile soph star QB LeFevour will do some business against Ball defense that lacks many difference-makers. But won't buck cresting Cardinal attack that's soared to 2115 yards in just last 4 games! BSU's super soph QB N. Davis (14 TDP, only 2 ints.), who drew scholarship offers from some Big Ten & Big East schools, living up to hype.

(06-C. MICH. 18-Ball St. 7...C.21-13 C.45/173 B.25/53 C.18/30/1/171 B.23/30/2/160 C.1 B.3)

(06-CMU -10 18-7 05-Cmu -4 31-24 (OT) 04-CMU -3' 41-40...SR: Central Michigan 20-18-1)

AUBURN 21 - Vanderbilt 16--Price rising while Auburn's "emotional reservoir" lowers following draining 20-17 upset at Florida, so will take extra value with bowl-seeking 3-1 Vandy, an eye-opening 8-1 last 9 as road dog. 'Dores evolving jr. dual-threat QB Nickson (57%, 132 YR) & balanced attack should move chains vs. Tiger stop unit probably missing premier DE Groves due to injury. And though RB Lester returns from suspension, don't see Auburn running roughshod vs. toughening Vandy front 7 (just 3.4 ypc, 3 TDs). Tuberville just 3-8 last 11 as home chalk. (DNP...SR: EVEN 19-19-1)

BOSTON COLLEGE 37 - Bowling Green 26--NFL-caliber BC sr. QB Ryan will eventually outduel Bowling's soph triggerman Sheehan (7 TDP last 2 games). But Eagles looking ahead to upcoming holy war vs. Notre Dame, and Falcons have covered 7 of last 8 as double-digit dog. (FIRST MEETING)

BUFFALO 26 - Ohio 24--Although progress at Buffalo not coming as fast as HC Turner Gill might like, this should be a good spot for the Bulls. Ohio U. star RB McRae has been held to a total of 185 YR in Bobcats' last 3 games, all losses, as nagging OL injuries have slowed the ground game. Chance for UB win vs. hurting foe.

(06-OHIO 42-Buffalo 7...O.18-10 O.43/223 B.23/39 O.14/20/0/147 B.15/27/0/132 O.1 B.0)

(06-OHIO -17' 42-7 05-Ohio -4' 34-20 04-OHIO -13 34-0...SR: Ohio 9-4)

ARMY 24 - Tulane 23--Don't overreact to Army's double-digit win over Temple last week, as Owls presented Knights with 5 giveaways. In fact, host's sputtering attack has produced only 7 TDs in first 5 games. Since Green Wave defense showed some pluck vs. powerful LSU, prefer to take with Tulane, which owns top offensive weapon on field in sr. RB Forte (303 YR in recent win over SE Louisiana).

(06-TULANE 42-Army 28...T.35-16 T.40/177 A.23/73 T.33/46/0/409 A.16/24/2/194 T.1 A.0)

(06-TULANE -5 42-28 04-TULANE -6' 45-31...SR: Tulane 8-5-1)

MICHIGAN 45 - Eastern Michigan 6--Not entirely convinced everything is right again at Michigan despite 3 straight wins, but Lloyd Carr's Wolverines certainly have a foe they can "bully" this week. Doubt EMU's 115th-ranked attack has the tools to exploit Michigan's defensive weaknesses. Return to health of Wolverine QB Henne (18 of 27 passing, 193 YP & 3 TDs vs. NU) a major plus. (05-MICH. -29' 55-0...SR: Michigan 7-0)

WYOMING 27 - Tcu 13--Success not coming as easily for current Frogs as past couple of TCU editions. And whatever the benefits of HC Patterson's QB rotation are likely to be lost if RS frosh Dalton sidelined (for better or worse, soph M. Jackson in pilot's chair until further notice). Prefer the better balance of Wyo attack (RB Moore 198 YR at Ohio), and note Poke "D" surprisingly stout vs. run thus far (only 72 ypg!).

(06-TCU 26-Wyoming 3...T.20-11 T.41/188 W.26/28 T.11/18/2/244 W.15/28/1/137 T.1 W.1)

(06-TCU -6' 26-3 05-Tcu +7 28-14...SR: TCU 2-1)

TEXAS A&M 35 - Oklahoma State 22--Both coaches under fire--A&M's Franchione for information on his website and OSU's Gundy for his dubious tirade. But their problems don't change the facts that the Cowboys have defensive and pointspread problems on the road (2-9 last 11 away), and that Aggies rediscovered powerful Jorvorskie Lane (123 YR last week vs. Baylor), allowing them 43 minutes of ball control.

(06-Tx. A&M 34-OSU 33 (OT)...T.24-21 T.48/231 O.37/226 T.17/27/1/192 O.10/22/1/133 T.1 O.0)

(06-Tam +3 34-33 (OT) 05-TAM -20 62-23 04-Tam +7 36-20...SR: Texas A&M 16-6)

MISSISSIPPI STATE 27 - Uab 17--MSU improved, but still reluctant to lay high number vs. never-say-die UAB (scored final 14 pts. in 38-30 loss at Tulsa), whose new HC Callaway spent many years as an assistant in SEC (Auburn, Ala. & Georgia). Blazer "D" won't mind facing run-first Bulldogs after visits to Michigan St., Florida St. & Tulsa TY. MSU hasn't covered as DD home chalk since 2001 (only 3-9 in role last 10+Ys.)!

(06-Msu 16-UAB 10 (OT)...M.19-14 M.44/166 U.32/94 U.12/26/2/116 M.14/23/0/115 M.2 U.0)

(06-Msu +9' 16-10 (OT) 04-Uab -11' 27-13...SR: EVEN 1-1)

KENT STATE 24 - Miami-Ohio 23--Miami-O got a boost from seldom-used sr. RB Cory Jones, who ran for 125 yds. & 2 TDs on 12 carries to key win vs. Syracuse. Scatback Kent RB Jarvis (3rd in the country in rushing) obviously a superior weapon, as is diminutive Flash QB Edelman. However see value in RedHawk team that's 1-0 in MAC play & coming off an uplifting win over a Big East foe.

(06-Kent St. 16-MIAMI 14...M.20-16 K.33/142 M.41/130 K.14/22/1/244 M.20/35/1/167 K.1 M.1)

(06-Ksu +12' 16-14 05-Miami -6' 27-10 04-MIAMI -19 47-27...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-20-2)

KANSAS STATE 31 - Kansas 21--KU is scoring 53.5 ppg! But that outpouring has come in 4 home games vs. weak teams. As last week's series of Top 25 upsets shows, it's who you beat that counts the most, not how big you win vs. lesser foes. We'll side with revenge-minded, versatile KSU (won 7 straight as home chalk), which has battered Auburn's Brandon Cox & Texas' Colt McCoy into 6 ints. in two road games and has 4 return TDs TY.

(06-KANSAS 39-Kan. St. 20...U.21-20 U.36/247 S.30/118 S.23/44/3/244 U.11/23/2/108 U.2 S.3)

(06-KANSAS -2' 39-20 05-KSU -6 12-3 04-KANSAS +3 31-28...SR: Kansas 63-36-5)

MISSISSIPPI 24 - Louisiana Tech 16--Although Ole Miss dropping in class following a series of bowl-caliber squads, still not comfortable laying DDs with a Rebel squad ranked dead last in SEC in both rush and pass defense (11th in scoring at 33 ppg). La Tech's competent ground game & low-risk, short-to-medium range aerial attack (only 3 TOs last 3 games!) should move sticks & run clock vs. offensively-potent Ole Miss contingent just 1-7-1 as Oxford chalk since '04. Take. (DNP...SR: Miss. 7-1)

Colorado 23 - BAYLOR 20--Last week's big upset over Oklahoma spells "pointspread inflation" and "possible letdown" in this road excursion for CU (2-8-1 vs. line last 11 as visitor). And let's not overlook the fact that RS frosh QB Cody Hawkins has tossed 6 ints. his last 3 games. A&M played keepaway last week vs. Baylor, whose offense should improve back at home.

(06-Baylor 34-COLO. 31 (OT)...C.22-20 C.49/276 B.26/110 B.31/44/2/272 C.9/25/3/75 B.1 C.0)

(06-Baylor +5 34-31 (OT)...SR: Colorado 8-6)

CLEMSON 20 - Virginia Tech 12--Can't count on much production from Tech offense with true frosh QB T. Taylor (just 66 YP in home win over N. Carolina) still learning the ropes. Conversely, Clemson jr. QB Harper has thrown 12 TD passes and just 1 int. this season. Tigers seek revenge for upset loss at Blacksburg last season, and Clemson "D" bounces back facing No. 112th-ranked attack.

(06-VA. TECH 24-Clem. 7...V.15-8 V.58/224 C.28/80 V.9/15/0/108 C.11/28/1/86 V.1 C.1)

(06-VIRGINIA TECH +4 24-7...SR: Clemson 17-11-1)

Oklahoma 30 - Texas 16--In battle of suddenly disappointed Red River rivals, will side with Oklahoma, especially with UT's Colt McCoy (4 ints. last week) again nursing sore neck/shoulder. Sooners have the better OL-RB group. Colorado successfully doubled OU WR threat M. Kelly (7 TDs TY) last week (no catches; no passes directed toward him!). Not sure young Longhorn secondary can do the same. Quicker OU "D" keeps its focus after last week's 17-point fourth-Q collapse at Boulder. (at Dallas, TX)

(06-Texas 28-Okla. 10...13-13 T.32/124 O.36/124 O.15/27/2/209 T.11/18/0/108 T.0 O.3)

(06-Texas -3' 28-10 05-Texas -14 45-12 04-Okla. -7 12-0 all at Dallas...SR: Texas 57-39-5)

MISSOURI 33 - Nebraska 20--Tigers (3-0 vs. spread) enjoyed bye week to further diversify their spread offense to attack the several rebuilding elements of the Nebraska defense (35 ppg, 479 ypg last 3 TY). Mizzou QB Chase Daniel (66%, 13 TDs, 4 ints.) and TEs Rucker & Coffman are known attack elements, now additionally supported by speedy 6-1 RS frosh WR Maclin (3 TDC, 1 TDR, 2 PR TDs). MU 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 at home.

(06-NEB. 34-Mizzou 20...M.21-20 N.47/183 M.32/119 M.20/38/2/244 N.14/22/0/236 N.2 M.1)

(06-NEB. -6 34-20 05-MIZZOU -1 41-24 04-NEB. +2' 24-3...SR: Nebraska 63-34-3)

PENN STATE 22 - Iowa 9--Bruised & battered Hawkeyes in no shape to contest what figures to be an angry, motivated Penn State crew coming home after losing at Michigan & Illinois. Nittany Lion QB Morelli's 3 ints. at Illinois less likely to be repeated in Happy Valley. Meanwhile, Iowa QB Christensen was sacked 9 times last week, and Hawkeye RBs Young & Sims haven't been over the 100-yd. mark since the opener, when both topped that number. Penn State "D" allowing only 2.3 ypc & ranks 5th in sacks. (04-Iowa +3 6-4...SR: Penn St. 11-8)

FLORIDA STATE 32 - North Carolina State 6--Not interested in backing woeful Wolfpack, which is 0-4 SU & vs. spread against major foes while committing 17 turnovers in those games. Mobile jr. QB Lee gave retooling Fla. State attack a boost off bench in confidence-building win over Bama. And, after holding Colorado scoreless for first 56 minutes of victory at Boulder, gnarly 'Nole defense also shut out Tide until late in 4th Q.

(06-N. CAR. ST. 24-Fla. St. 20...N.19-16 N.37/150 F.32/96 F.16/29/1/249 N.13/22/0/190 N.0 F.0)

(06-NCS +10 24-20 05-Ncs +12' 20-15 04-Fsu -6' 17-10...SR: Florida State 18-9)

Georgia 40 - TENNESSEE 28--Strongly recommend revenge-minded UGA (see Looking for an Angle), which has become highly-unpredictable on offense under clever o.c. Bobo. So, Dawgs terrific soph QB Stafford (10-3 as starter) & explosive supporting cast (now-healthy sr. RB T. Brown had 180 YR vs. Ole Miss!) should continue to excel vs. troubled UT defense (38 ppg, 5.2 ypc) that won't benefit from bye week. And with UGA's fast-maturing front 7 providing steady pressure, Vols sr. QB Ainge won't easily find comfort level in Knoxville, where UT is 0-10 as SEC chalk since '04!

(06-Tenn. 51-GA. 33...T.27-14 G.27/145 T.34/115 T.25/38/0/268 G.14/25/3/175 T.0 G.1)

(06-Tenn. -2' 51-33 05-Ga. +3 27-14 04-Tenn. +12' 19-14...SR: Tennessee 19-15-2)

NEVADA 30 - Fresno State 16--Whereas Nevada soph QB Graziano (10 TDP last 3) becoming increasingly comfortable running Chris Ault's Pistol, Fresno's unsteady jr. counterpart Brandtstater (only 8 of 22 last week vs. La Tech) still not looking downfield with much confidence. Moreover, Pat Hill scaling back Bulldog playbook due to OL injuries. And no need to twist our arm to recommend Wolf Pack in Reno, where Nevada is 12-0 (!) as home chalk since HC Ault returned to sidelines in '04.

(06-FRES. ST. 28-Nev. 19...N.21-19 F.38/212 N.34/168 N.18/34/0/183 F.16/24/0/124 F.1 N.1)

(06-FSU -12' 28-19 05-NEVADA +15' 38-35 04-FSU -26 54-17...SR: Fresno State 23-13-1)

ALABAMA 30 - Houston 24--Bama's demanding HC Saban was displeased with his squad's mental & physical toughness in 21-14 loss vs. Florida State, but not sure redemption-minded Tide able to pull away from offensively-combustible Houston squad (34 ppg) that owns 2 quality triggermen in alternating RS frosh Keenum & soph Joseph (896 YP last 3 games). Either Coug QB should have ample time vs. Bama defense lacking a credible pass rush (SEC-worst 5 sacks). And Tide still not rolling at home, going just 3-12-2 vs. spread last 17 as host. (DNP...SR: Alabama 9-0)

SAN JOSE STATE 24 - Idaho 23--We don't like to overanalyze stats, but infantry getting stonewalled by UC Davis' rush "D" (SJSU just 15 YR in last week's win) appears to be a major red flag for Spartans. Idaho hitting a few bumps lately (star RS frosh RB D. Jackson high ankle sprain; fellow RS frosh QB Enderle pulled after 5 picks vs. Hawaii), but Vandals yet to be embarrassed vs. better opposition than this.

(06-S. Jose St. 28-IDAHO 13...S.15-12 S.42/156 I.33/123 S.10/17/1/179 I.7/20/2/131 S.1 I.0)

(06-Sjs -6' 28-13 05-SJS -7' 26-18...SR: San Jose State 10-7-1)

COLORADO STATE 31 - San Diego State 24--Frankly, we're not too enamored with idea of recommending Chuck Long's sloppy-tackling SDSU bunch that's off another embarrassing effort (Cincy almost 400 yards in 1st half of last week's rout at Qualcomm). But, since CSU hasn't notched a win since GOP controlled both House & Senate (Oct. 7, 2006!) and rides 11-game losing streak, more reluctant to lay points with Rams.

(06-S. DIEGO ST. 17-Colo. St. 6...C.19-9 S.32/184 C.38/113 C.21/41/1/175 S.7/19/0/51 S.1 C.0)

(06-SDS +1 17-6 05-Sds +7' 30-10 04-Csu +4 21-17...SR: San Diego State 14-12)

Arizona 27 - OREGON STATE 24--Both of these schizophrenic squads are candidates to appear on upcoming Dr. Phil episodes. But OSU's debilitating self-destruct tendencies (21 giveaways already!) a bit more disturbing. Arizona showing more signs of progress, as jr. QB Tuitama (5 TDP vs. Wazzu) continues to get more comfy running o.c. Sonny Dykes' spread, and quick frosh RB Grigsby (186 YR vs. Cougs) now energizing Cat infantry.

(06-Oregon St. 17-ARIZ. 10...O.19-13 O.38/151 A.28/22 O.16/22/2/181 A.17/30/2/161 O.1 A.1)

(06-Osu -2' 17-10 05-Ariz. +9' 29-27 04-Osu -7' 28-14...SR: Arizona 20-9-1)

SOUTHERN CAL 45 - Stanford 11--We'd be willing to bet this "scrimmage" vs. Stanford will be a lot easier for SC than its own practice sessions in wake of Troy's mistake-filled (16 penalties!) escape at Seattle. But even Trojans can be vulnerable laying mountainous prices (SC no covers last 4 laying 30 or more), and Pete Carroll might be more interested in fine-tuning elements of aerial game than running up score vs. Cardinal.

(06-S. Cal 42-STAN. 0...Sc.18-12 Sc.32/108 St.30/30 Sc.14/25/0/247 St.16/30/2/178 Sc.0 St.1)

(06-Usc -29 42-0 05-USC -34 51-21 04-Usc -22' 31-28...SR: Southern Cal 58-24-3)

*WESTERN MICHIGAN 38 - Akron 23--WMU finally got solid production from both QB Hiller (21 of 29 passing, 3 TDPs) and sr. RB Bonds (143 YR, 2 scores), resulting in Broncos' best victory of the season vs. Toledo. Neither Akron QB Jacquemain nor Jackson seems to be the answer, giving Hiller a significant edge. WMU 4-0 "over" in '07 & Akron "over" 3 straight.

(06-W. Mich. 17-AKRON 0...W.18-8 W.42/110 A.20/M13 W.17/29/1/217 A.13/27/1/132 W.0 A.1)

(06-Western Michigan +2 17-0...SR: Western Michigan 11-3)

*MARYLAND 21 - Georgia Tech 17--After dropping their first 2 ACC games, Ramblin' Wreck feeling better following last week's home win over Clemson. Tepid Tech offense still lacks balance, however, as new QB Bennett has just 1 TDP in first 5 games. Slightly prefer Maryland side off its own uplifting victory at highly-ranked Rutgers. Terps' productive sr. RBs Lattimore & Ball outgain Tech star Choice at College Park.

(06-GA. TECH 27-Mary. 23...G.21-15 G.43/229 M.35/87 M.16/24/1/190 G.13/26/0/161 G.1 M.1)

(06-TECH -14 27-23 04-Tech +12' 20-7...SR: Georgia Tech 13-5)

*TEXAS TECH 41 - Iowa State 23--ISU showing gradual improvement under Gene Chizik. But Cyclones must minimize turnovers (14 in 5 games!) in their third consecutive road excursion if they are to stay within reach of TT scoring machine that has seen QB Harrell (only 2 ints.) pass for 24 TDs, a freshman-tying record 14 of them (in just 5 games!) to 6-2 RS frosh sensation Michael Crabtree (60 recs. TY)! Check status of ISU juco RB Bass (DNP last week; shoulder). Cyclones outgained Nebraska last week!

(06-Tex. Tech 42-IOWA ST. 26...T.24-18 T.20/107 I.36/75 T.31/40/0/368 I.14/34/2/146 T.2 I.0)

(06-Texas Tech -2' 42-26...SR: Texas Tech 6-1)

*Ucf 29 - EAST CAROLINA 27--Can't knock resilient, well-coached ECU much, but accumulation of small edges points to visiting UCF. Knights' ground attack more consistent with star jr. RB K. Smith (713 YR & 10 TDs in first 4 games!), patient sr. QB Israel (only 1 int.) a little more cautious with ball than Pirate counterparts, and improving UCF defense has allowed just 1 meaningful TD in last 2 games.

(06-E. Car. 23-UCF 10...E.24-15 E.46/170 U.26/58 U.18/34/2/205 E.16/30/2/135 E.0 U.0)

(06-Ecu -5' 23-10 05-Ucf +1' 30-20...SR: East Carolina 5-1)

*LSU 24 - Florida 21--Since number rises a tick following UF's 20-17 home setback vs. Auburn, don't mind supporting resolute Gator squad that has dropped consecutive reg.-season games only once since '02! Fast but young Florida stop unit had some trouble vs. Tiger QB Cox. But with LSU OL struggling (6 sacks allowed vs. Tulane!). And with QB Flynn (ankle) & go-to WR Doucet (missed last 2 games with groin injury) perhaps less than 100%, green UF 2ndary allows a minimum of downfield completions. Tigers possess the more formidable ground assault, but Gators special soph QB Tebow (SEC-best 346 ypg tot. offense) & blazing soph WR Harvin (28 grabs, 16 yd. avg.) make enough plays to hang tough.

(06-FLORIDA 23-Lsu 10...L.22-14 F.32/97 L.25/90 L.24/41/3/228 F.19/28/1/191 F.1 L.2)

(06-FLORIDA -1 23-10 05-LSU -6 21-17 04-Lsu +3 24-21...SR: Florida 28-22-3)

*Ohio State 37 - PURDUE 20--Respect Purdue QB Painter's accomplishments (18 TDs, just 3 ints.), but Ohio State defense tips the scales in favor of the Buckeyes. OSU stop unit ranks 4th in pass efficiency defense and is 2nd overall. Meanwhile, Buckeye QB Boeckman has thrown 12 TD passes & just 3 ints. himself, and he's getting solid ground support from soph Chris Wells (4 straight 100-yard games). (04-PURDUE -5' 24-17...SR: Ohio State 35-12-2)

*UCLA 37 - Notre Dame 10--Such are the times at ND that Domers everywhere are breathing a small sigh of relief that "O" at least displayed a pulse (albeit mostly behind backup QB Sharpley) last week at Purdue. But as long as Irish gain inches per carry and infantry fails to balance attack, Sharpley or frosh Clausen (already sacked 29 times between them) will continue to absorb beatings that would make George Chuvalo cringe. UCLA "D" has enough vet playmakers to wreak havoc, and Bruin "O" uncovering new big-play components (such as WR Breazell) to extend leads. TV--ABC

(06-N. DAME 20-Ucla 17...N.20-12 N.35/41 U.28/26 N.27/45/0/304 U.16/32/1/217 N.1 U.1)

(06-NOTRE DAME -13 20-17...SR: Notre Dame 3-0)

*Unlv 24 - AIR FORCE 22--Evidence continues to suggest UNLV's improvement is no false alarm, and upgraded Reb "D" should be able to cope with AFA shotgun after dealing with smorgasbord of attacks (Hawaii Red Gun, Utah spread, Nevada Pistol) in recent weeks. Juco RB Frank "The Tank" Summers (310 YR last 2) providing UNLV a power ground component to take advantage of smallish Falc front 7.

(06-UNLV 42-A. Force 39...U.30-22 U.43/204 A.45/204 U.26/34/0/351 A.10/18/0/211 U.3 A.0)

(06-UNLV +10' 42-39 05-AFA -13' 42-7 04-Afa +6' 27-10...SR: Air Force 8-4)

*UTEP 38 - Tulsa 37--Never-say-die Miners erased a 28-7 first-half deficit and a 14-point SMU 4th-Q lead in last week's thrilling OT win at Dallas! Tulsa's stellar sr. QB P. Smith (1444 YP & 13 TDP in first 4 games!) will do plenty of business against depleted UTEP 2ndary. But clever Miner mentor Price's attack (514 YR last 2 games; only 691 all of 2006!) has balance TY.

(06-TULSA 30-Utep 20...T.18-12 T.46/154 U.18/40 U.21/37/1/253 T.16/23/1/176 T.1 U.0)

(06-TULSA -14' 30-20 05-UTEP -8' 41-38 04-TULSA +8 37-35...SR: Tulsa 9-6)

*Arizona State 41 - WASHINGTON STATE 26--Dennis Erickson's "Reunion Tour" continues at Wazzu, where he coached almost a generation ago. (Are NFL Seahawks and 49ers on ASU's slate, too?) And bullet-riddled Coug "D" (allowed 42 or more in 3 of first 5) no match for QB Carpenter and Sun Devil attack tallying 40 ppg. Do we hear Palouse war drums beating for WSU HC Doba's scalp?

(06-ASU 47-Wsu 14...A.27-12 A.49/196 W.19/27 A.16/29/1/366 W.15/32/2/165 A.1 W.0)

(06-ASU +1 47-14 05-Asu -2 27-24 04-ASU -13' 45-28...SR: Arizona State 19-12-2)

*HAWAII 63 - Utah State 17--USU not quite as heinous as last year's edition, as Ags have slipped inside some hefty imposts in first month of campaign. But it's asking a lot of QB L. Jackson & limited USU weaponry to stay within earshot at Aloha Stadium, where QB Brennan & June Jones' Red Gun routinely clear these high pointspread hurdles (covered last 6 laying 20 or more at Honolulu).

(06-Hawaii 63-USU 10...H.22-18 U.42/137 H.13/86 H.23/38/1/486 U.17/31/1/225 H.0 U.3)

(06-Hawaii -26' 63-10 05-HAWAII -17 50-23...SR: Utah State 4-3)

ADDED GAMES

South Florida 26 - FLORIDA ATLANTIC 14--After knocking off highly-ranked West Virginia in front of first sold-out home crowd in school history, no surprise if USF not at emotional peak for this downstate trip to FAU. Venerable HC Schellenberger's competent Owls stay inside roomy spread. (DNP...SR: S. Fla. 1-0)

*Arkansas St. 24 - LA.-MONROE 23--Can't wait (really!) for that Ark. St.-Troy Sun Belt showdown Oct. 27. But not sure ASU "D" stout enough to allow Indians to cruise thru league slate. As long as it doesn't self-destruct, ULM capable, and note electric Warhawk RB Dawson has 4 straight 100-yd. games vs. bowl-caliber foes.

(06-ASU 10-La.-Mon. 6...A.21-13 A.38/172 L.35/130 A.19/36/3/200 L.15/25/2/93 A.2 L.0)

(06-ASU -6' 10-6 05-ULM +3 31-27 04-Asu +6 28-21...SR: Arkansas St. 16-12)

*LA.-LAFAYETTE 34 - North Texas 32--We'll overlook UNT's shortcomings vs. BCS foes (allowed 145 points at Oklahoma & Arkansas!) as Mean Green now back in Sun Belt, where new HC Dodge's spread can likely do some business. ULL one-dimensional with QB Desormeaux at controls, and Cajuns just 5-15-2 last 22 as chalk.

(06-N. Texas 16-LA.-LAF. 7...N.14-13 N.49/119 L.32/40 L.17/29/0/168 N.9/16/1/128 N.0 L.1)

(06-Ntu +11 16-7 05-Ull -4 31-28 04-Ntu -2' 27-17...SR: North Texas 8-3)

*Troy 30 - FLORIDA INTL. 3--After FIU scored a mere 2 TDs in first 5 games, and trailed Middle Tennessee 47-0 at half (!) last week, we simply can't take a take a sip from the FIU Kool-Aid. Would rather trust QB Haugabook and Troy spread that put up lots of points vs. major competition in September.

(06-Troy 26-FLA. INTL. 13...F.19-15 T.43/245 F.25/20 F.30/51/1/225 T.9/23/0/53 T.1 F.1)

(06-Troy -10' 26-13 05-TROY -9 18-13...SR: Troy 3-0)

*Virginia 37 - MIDDLE TENN. ST. 19--Can't enthusiastically recommend Virginia, if only because HC Groh (just 9-22 vs. spread last 31 away) has been major money-burner on road. But also can't ignore fact that coming Cavaliers (4 straight wins) have a LOT more playmakers on defense than host MTS. (FIRST MEETING)

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

*BOISE STATE 52 - New Mexico State 24--Now that new QB Tharp and rebuilt Boise receiving corps getting the hang of things, don't mind laying points with Broncos on blue carpet, where they're 16-6 vs. line last 22. Meanwhile, QB Holbrook and Hal Mumme's Air Raid (only 20 points & 249 YP last week vs. Ark.-Pine Bluff) not quite putting up the numbers it did a year ago. TV--ESPN

(06-Bsu 40-N. MEX. ST. 28...N.28-23 B.42/255 N.20/8 N.49/65/2/526 B.14/21/1/215 B.1 N.1)

(06-Bsu -26' 40-28 05-BSU -33 56-6...SR: Boise State 7-0)





COLLEGE KEY RELEASES



WYOMING by 14 over Tcu

GEORGIA by 12 over Tennessee

NEVADA by 14 over Fresno State

OHIO STATE by 17 over Purdue


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10-02-2007, 05:21 PM

[Dr Ray]

Power Sweep

4* TEX A&M 37-24 ov Ok St
3* TEX TECH 52-14 ov Iowa St
3* Unlv 24-16 ov AIR F
2* Okla 42-20 ov Texas
2*LSU 37-20 ov Fla
2* Mia Fl 31-10 ov N CAR
Dog of Week: Vandy 17-16 ov AUB

4* Atl 24-23 ov TENN
3* Balt 20-10 ov SAN FRAN
2* PITT 34-17 ov Seattle
2* Cleve 14(+)-21 ov N ENG
Pro Stat Play ARIZONA
4* Angle Play-PITT
No Power Ratings Play

Totals:
3* Chi/GB over 41-
3* PITT/Seattle over 39
3* Balt/SF under 36 (estimated line)
2* SD/DV over 41-
2* Cleve/NE under 41 (estimated line)

[Dr Ray]

Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
MISSOURI over Nebraska RATING: 1
CINCINNATI over Rutgers RATING: 1
OHIO STATE over Purdue RATING: 2
ILLINOIS over Wisconsin RATING: 3
KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4
KANSAS over Kansas State RATING: 4
BOISE STATE over New Mexico State RATING: 5
ARIZONA STATE over Washington St RATING: 5


NFL KEY RELEASES
KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville RATING: 2
GREEN BAY over Chicago RATING: 3
WASHINGTON over Detroit RATING: 4
CAROLINA over New Orleans RATING: 4
NEW ENGLAND over Cleveland RATING: 5

[Dr Ray]

Confidential Kick-Off

The Gold Sheet

America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!


11 *CLEMSON over Virginia Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*CLEMSON 26 - Virginia Tech 10

Look for Clemson to bounce back at home this week after Saturday's special
teams meltdown at Georgia Tech (missed 4 FGs & had a punt blocked to set up
Tech's only TD in 13-3 loss). Tiger QB Cullen Harper has a 12-1 TD-int.
ratio and has completed 63% of his passes. Conversely, Virginia Tech is
suffering growing pains at QB, where true frosh Tyrod Taylor, who took over
the starting job from jr. Sean Glennon after the loss to LSU, has completed
just 51%, throwing only 1 TD pass. VT's offense is 112th in the country, as
star RB Branden Ore has been slowed by bruised ribs and an underachieving OL
that's come under sharp criticism. Clemson has been a winner at home lately
when not saddled as heavy chalk (6-2 vs. number last 8 at "Death Valley" when
a dog or not laying more than 2 TDs), while VT covered just 4 of last 14 on
line.


10 *FLORIDA STATE over N. Car. St.
Late Score Forecast:
*FLORIDA STATE 37 - N. Car. St. 10

Long-time ACC scouts are surprised coagulating Florida State is laying less
than 3 TDs vs. a banged-up, mistake-prone NCS squad (118th in TO margin).
Wolfpack lacks consistency at QB with unproven soph Beck or jr. Evans
(neither one ranked among top 100 in pass efficiency!), and it's highly
doubtful their staggering offense (only 18 ppg, just 2.7 ypc) will find a
solution vs. smothering 'Nole defense (17 ppg, 2.6 ypc; only 3 "meaningful"
TDs in last 3 games). And you can be sure the FSU stop unit performs with
increased fervor for LB coach Amato, who was fired in Raleigh end of last
year. Meanwhile, FSU's attack has perked up behind athletic 6-4 jr. QB X.
Lee, who will start after engineering 3 scoring drives & throwing for 224
yds. in 21-14 victory over Bama. New NCS mentor O'Brien needs more time to
reverse fortunes of withering Wolfpack squad that's 1-10 vs. spread last 11.


10 UNLV over *Air Force
Late Score Forecast:
UNLV 26 - *Air Force 20

O.J. Simpson's antics aren't the only sports-related news items emanating
from Las Vegas lately. Indeed, there's mounting evidence that UNLV's
recently-suffering program is finally turning the corner for 3rd-year HC Mike
Sanford. Much of that improvement is credited to a nastier defense (paced by
likely future NFL draftee LB Bell) that shouldn't have too much trouble
coping with Air Force's new shotgun looks after dealing with a variety of
different offenses (such as Hawaii, Utah, & Nevada) in recent weeks.
Moreover, Rebs should be able to take advantage of smallish Falcon front
seven thanks to emergence of chop-busting, 240-lb., juco RB Summers (310 YR
last 2), which in turn ought to impede AFA blitz tactics and give maturing RS
frosh QB Dixon extra time to look downfield.


10 *KANSAS STATE over Kansas
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 31 - Kansas 17

No doubt the 2007 Jayhawks are a team to be reckoned with. 5-11 soph QB Todd
Reesing (11 TDs, only 1 int.) is providing an extra dimension to the offense,
FB/TB Brandon McAnderson adding important power (6.3 ypc, 6 TDR), all-Big XII
CB Aquib Talib has provided 3 TD catches in addition to his interception
return TD, and Mark Mangino has proven to be a coach of substance, as well as
girth. However, KU's entire 2007 performance so far must be filtered
through the prism of reality that shows all four victories have been achieved
at home vs. teams with class "C" defenses, or worse! So taking on the
battle-hardened Wildcats should prove to be a disorienting chore, especially
in Manhattan, where KSU has won 8 straight in the series. Despite its
blowouts by a combined 214-23 score, the KU defense has only nine sacks.
Without more pressure than that on jumbo Wildcat QB Josh Freeman, he should
have a big day.


10 SEATTLE over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
Seattle 24 - *Pittsburgh 20
(Sunday, October 7)

Mike Holmgren and Seattle veterans, still bummed over some "bum" calls in
Super Bowl XL vs. Pittsburgh two seasons ago, are catching Steelers a little
wounded as Seahawks seek some retribution. Key S Troy Polamalu (ab strain)
and NT Casey Hampton (hamstring) were unable to finish last week's 21-14 loss
at Arizona, and clutch WR Hines Ward (knee) was unable to start. Holmgren
has revamped the Seahawk "D" since that Super Bowl loss, most importantly
adding extra-dimension LB Julian Peterson (3 sacks last week) from the 49ers.
And former Patriots' Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch (7 for 130 last week vs.
S.F.'s quality CBs) has arrived to add a more reliable target for Matt
Hasselbeck. Now facing a rookie HC in Mike Tomlin, Holmgren brings his
veteran expertise into play.


TOTALS: OVER (39) in Seattle-Pittsburgh game...Steeler "D" was thinned by
injuries at Arizona; HC Tomlin has loosed the passing reins on Ben
Roethlisberger; OVER (42.5) in San Diego-Denver game...Broncs having problems
stopping the run; S.D. defense (26 ppg!) misses guidance of departed def.
coord. Wade Phillips.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): WEST VIRGINIA (-28.5; estimated) at
Syracuse-Defeated Mountaineers need an attention-grabber; Syracuse has proven
it cannot handle speedy spread offenses; BAYLOR (+8.5) vs. Colorado-Kudos to
CU for its come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma; let's see if young Buffs
can absorb several days of adulation and still get ready to lay the lumber on
the road...FLORIDA (+8) at Lsu-Gators learned some valuable lessons in loss
vs. Auburn; Tiger offense struggled in second half vs. South Carolina...UCLA
(-20.5)-Bruins surrendered heartbreaking, late, losing TD LY in South Bend;
now their defense shows no mercy in payback game...ARIZONA (+1) at St. Louis
(NFL)-Rams hurtin' on offense; Cards (3-0-1 vs. spread) soaring under Ken
Whisenhunt, who's defying NFL adages by playing two QBs (one of them former
Ram hero Kurt Warner)!

[chuck]

Dr. Ray, Thanks for posting the sheets. I really like seeing who everybody is picking.

[kimd]

Thanks Dr Ray. Anyone know who Dr. Bob likes this week? I know he's hit a bad patch the last 2 weeks. Thanks

[simsity19]

Thanks Dr Ray have a big money weekend.