Dragon1952 - CFB Week 5

[dragon1952]

CFB recap
Week 0 - 5-3
Week 1 - 3-5
Week 2 - 5-2
Week 3 - 5-4
Week 4 - 3-5

CFB Week 5

Miami +7 @ North Carolina - The 1-4 Tarheels only win this season vs James Madison. This will probably be the toughest test so far. North Carolina has lost 2 defensive starters this season and are lacking experience in depth. All of Miami's 4 wins this season have been by 10 or more. North Carolina 5-11-1 ATS last 17.

Vanderbilt +8 @ Auburn - Auburn will have problems covering this one off of the Florida upset and with Arkansas and LSU on deck. Vanderbilt is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Vanderbilt has slightly better avgs. in both defense and offensive categories. Teams haven't met since '03.

Bowling Green +20 @ Boston College - 3-1 Bowling Green getting a ton of pts here. Their only loss @ Mich. St. by 11. In their 3 wins vs Minnesota, Temple and W. Kentucky they've scored 121 pts. Boston College hasn't won by more than 20 all year and have faced some pretty poor competition in Army, UMass, N.C. St.

Michigan -29.5 vs E. Michigan - E. Mich has already lost @ Pitt by 24, vs Ball St by 22 and @ Vanderbilt by 23. Last trip to East Lansing was a 55-0 drubbing.

Kansas +3.5 @ Kansas St. - Kansas St. seems to be the popular pick here but Kansas way better offensively, even given their light schedule. K. State off of a big win over Texas doesn't really say that much considering Texas' poor play so far. The other 2 Wildcat wins over pathetic San Jose St and Missouri St. The Jayhawks have scored 214 pts in 3 games and have only given up 23!

Florida St -17.5 vs N.C. State - Big grudge match here with losses to N.C. State the past 2 years. N.C. State ex-head coach Chuck Amato now defensive coordinator for the Seminoles also looking for payback after being fired last year. N.C. State starting QB Beck will be out this week. Xavier Lee named starter at QB for Florida St. adds scrambling dimension to offense.

USC -40 vs Stanford - Starting QB T.C. Ostrander out for Stanford. Replacement Tavita Pritchard has virtually no college game experience. USC snubbed in the standings after lame effort vs Washington should not hold back in this one. Stanford lost 41-3 last week at home vs Arizona St. Should be even worse this week.

LSU -7 vs Florida - LSU by a TD at home is hard to beat. Florida lost at home vs a lousy Auburn team last week now have to travel to Baton Rouge to play the best team in the country and it's only a TD? 5-0 LSU outscoring opponents 199-32!

Notre Dame +22 @ UCLA - Notre Dame has improved slightly in only losing by 14 and 17 the last 2 games, one of them against one of the best offenses in the country in Purdue. UCLA coming off of a couple of conference games and looking at a bye next week before facing Cal. May not be taking the Irish too seriously at this point.

Virginia -10 @ Middle Tennesssee St. - 4-1 Virginia should be able to run all over 1-4 Middle Tennessee and defense should be able to tame Blue Raiders strength in the running game. Virginia special teams and defense way better.

[dragon1952]

I'm sorry....that's Miami -7

[garister]

I like most of those pics, good luck on sat.

[Boone Moone]

Nice write-up as always Dragon..........Will jump in on some of your plays since you know your college and are ready for a big week, but I'm gonna be a sucker and take the number on the Gators in the game of the day.........Just thinking they'll play their usual big game in the snake pit, despite the big advantage for the Tigers at home..........I suck at the colleges, and it's usually best to fade me here.

Just for the sake of being honest, I played 4 college games two weeks ago and went 0-4...........Last week I played (but would never post) 6 college games, and went 0-6...........Incredible -- but my handicapping strategy doesn't bode well for the colleges because they usually play on the up-and-up and they don't get paid for their efforts, whereas we all know how the NFL works...........Where every player is guaranteed a paycheck no matter how they fuck up the pointspread.........It's just the way I've seen it transpire over the last 35 years or so............Call me wierd but it's a betting factor/strategy I can't put into words to make it understandable for the average player.

I guess that's why I hate posting my reasoning behind the plays I post..............When they make sense they usually lose, when no one can figure where the hell I'm coming from .............I win..............Good Luck champ.

[dragon1952]

Thanks guys...good luck to you also. Yeah, the rotten thing about write-ups are that they make you look really stupid when they don't pan out. On the other hand, they tend to make you seem brilliant when they do. I just feel if you're going to post a pick you ought to say why. I'm not that great, as you can tell by my record, but I do seem to do pretty well picking a game of the week. If I could just stick with betting that 1 CFB and 1 NFL game I'd be better off but hey, I do this for fun not for income GL with the Gators....hopefully you can get more than 7.

[Swicat]

Swicat's picks

Last week I had mixed results but there are two picks I would encourage everyone to consider.

Illinois and Tennesse

Last week, I went with Florida St as a favorite vs Bama. I am following that same logic this week. In the papers here, the sportswriters have been questioning how the #5 ranked Badgers can be an underdog to the unranked Illini.
That is the exact reason why I like Illinois and Tennessee vs Georgia. The bookmakers in Vegas who potentially could lose millions by posting a bad line have said that the pollsters are wrong and that Illinois and Tennessee are the better teams.
Vegas could have easily made Wisconsin and Georgia the favorites but by making Illinois and Tennessee the favorites, they are going out on a limb and would not due that without good reason.
Win or lose, I will take my cue from Las Vegas anytime over the average sportswriter/pollster who has nothing at stake.
Good Luck,
Swicat

[dragon1952]

EDIT:
Michigan -29.5 vs E. Michigan - E. Mich has already lost @ Pitt by 24, vs Ball St by 22 and @ Vanderbilt by 23. Last trip to East Lansing was a 55-0 drubbing.


I meant Ann Arbor....not East Lansing

[jpehl]

any thoughts on Texas/Ou?

[dragon1952]

Shit, I'm 1-4 so far. I like Oklahoma so you better go with Texas
BTW, MIAMI FUCKING SUCKS! Even more so, KYLE WRIGHT SUCKS!
I think they need to take a serious look at that guy.
Sorry for the rant...I feel better now.

[Sovrano]

College FB is screwed up. The only two games I played so far were KSU -3 and Georgia +2 and now it's not looking like Georgia will catch up. Need to pick some good night games now. Or maybe just watch Baseball.

[Boone Moone]

Yeah, count me in for sticking with baseball for now:

1. USC loses at home to Stanford as a 40-point favorite.

2. UCLA gets beat at home by winless Notre Dame as a 20-point favorite.

3. Michigan State gets beat at home by the almigthy Northwestern as 15-point favorites.

4. Florida beats the shit out of 10-point favorite LSU in the snake pit.

Any questions?..............Er, did I leave anyone out?

The odds of any one of these things happening on a given Saturday would be pretty long itself.............but who would have thought that all of this could transpire in a single afternoon?...............I've had enough of NCAAF for awhile............Think I'll stick to bases too.

[dragon1952]

yep....there were some pretty lame performances from some awfully good teams today. You'd think as often as it happens, these good teams would know that they absolutely cannot take anyone lightly. Yet it happens time and time again. A lackluster performance from an absolutely stellar team like USC combined with a superhuman effort by a doormat such as Stanford is all it takes to even things out. I fucking give up. From now on I'm working on my landscaping on Saturdays.

[jpehl]

Not to call you out but didnt LSU win

[Boone Moone]

Yeah -- thanks for correcting me on that J-Pal..........I saw a partial score that I thought was a final at 20-10.........My eyes are beginning to suck!...........Too much time on this damn computer............But hey, they covered the spread anyway -- as to not appear too foolish on my part...........GL.

[Sovrano]

I thought the same thing. I was watching the Nebraska @ Missouri game and saw some halftime report or something where Florida was ahead in the fourth quarter.