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GIANTS AT BUCS
1/6/08
1 PM EST
As much as Eli Manning downplays it, there's no getting away from the fact that this game is a defining moment in his career. There's no guarantees in the NFL that you'll ever get back to the playoffs. Yet Manning has had two cracks at it already, both losses. Getting past the first round will at least at some level, validate his career. He's no Peyton. We understand that. But this game really lies squarely on his shoulders.
The Giants have talent on both sides of the ball. On offense they have a balanced attack. They field the 4th ranked rushing game in the NFL behind 6-4 265 pound monster back Brandon Jacobs. Their passing game can be very good when Manning and company are "on". They will miss Shockey big time in a game like this, but still have Burress, Toomer, Smith and Moss. They also can be a big play team and big plays can be the difference in a game like this. By big plays, we're thinking of a 50 yard jump ball to Plaxico Burress in the End Zone. That threat is always there.
On defense, the Giants led the league in sacks and have the best pass rush in the League. They'll be gambling on defense with their blitz packages against a mobile QB like Jeff Garcia. Garcia has the potential to make big plays when "on the run".
The bottom line is that the Giants have enough big play makers and talent on both sides of the ball to make the difference Saturday in Tampa. The missing piece to the puzzle is which Eli Manning shows up. You can throw out last weeks game against the Patriots as far as we're concerned. There was virtually no pressure on Manning and the Giants last week. All of the pressure was on the Patriots to stay undefeated and break a few records. For the Giants, whether they won or lost, they would be playing Saturday in Tampa. There's a big difference between a QB having a big game with no pressure on him, and a QB having a big game with the season on the line. Thus far in his career, manning has not been able to deliver with the season on the line. Perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm?
It won't be easy. The Bucs are getting it done on defense and have put together a balanced offensive attack of their own. Garcia is a winner. He wins wherever he goes. The big question mark for the Bucs will be whether taking the last two weeks of the season off will leave them a little rusty for this playoff game. By kickoff time Saturday, the Bucs will have gone 3 weeks without a meaningful game, with key players sitting out.
When we break this game down using yards per point, we get the idea that perhaps this should be a Bucs call. The Giants played great football away from home this year. They went 7-1 on the road, including their trip across the pond to England earlier in the year. Their yards per point numbers on the road were 14.9 for the offense and 17.7 for the defense for a +2.8 total number. But if you look strictly at the Giants road numbers, then you have to look strictly at Tampa's home numbers, and they were pretty damn good. The Bucs, at home, on offense had a ypp number of 13.6 while they put up a very good 20.5 number on defense for a total of +7.3. Edge to the Bucs.
Taking it a step further, looking at the last 7 meaningful games, for each team, we have the Giants being outscored 20-22 with ypp numbers of 16.7 on offense and 13.7 on defense for a -3.......not good folks. The Bucs outscored their opponents in their last 7 meaningful games 24-15 and have ypp numbers of 13.6 on offense and 16 on defense for +2.4.......so, a 5.4 point edge for the Bucs before adding in home field. So, with home field, the Bucs would rate a 7 point edge or so here.
So using home and away numbers the Bucs have a 4.5 point edge. Using the last 7 meaningful games, the Bucs have a 7 point edge. Either way you slice it, when laying only -2.5, you'd have to take a close look at the Bucs from a statistical handicapping viewpoint. Throw in the Giants turnover ratio of -8 compared to the Bucs +15 and you have the makings of a very strong case for the Bucs.
Sometimes though, you have to abandon the stats. They don't always tell the whole story. Sometimes, as a handicapper, you have to go with your gut, based on your assessment of the teams not from stats but from having watched them in action many times over the course of a season. As mentioned above, the talent is there for the Giants. If all the pieces of the puzzle come together for one game, if Manning has a good game, if the Giants don't turn it over, if the receivers don't drop passes, if they don't miss tackles and give up big plays, they win this game. The Bucs have some impressive numbers but they also don't play in the NFC East. They get to play the Falcons twice, the Panthers twice, along with teams like the Rams, 49ers, Lions and Cardinals. That's a little different than the Cowboys, Redskins and Eagles twice. with Green Bay, New England and Minnesota thrown in for good luck. In spite of that, the Giants still fished with one more win than the Bucs. Time for all the pieces of the puzzle to come together for one, complete game.........
3* GIANTS +3 -120
1* Giants Money Line +130
1* Giants/Bucs Under 39.5
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