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  • Superbowl pick

    Redemtion, I have been doing well in the playoffs, I figure the NE wins. I was having trouble identifing a good bet. The more I gamble the more I find the Vegas linemakers are very sharp. I keep in mind they are just trying to get the public to bet 50% on one side and 50% on the other. When it comes to totals and sides it is amazing how right the are. I try to keep in mind that the losing number really sticks with you. If I won a game I don't always remember if it was by one point, 10, or whatever. When I lose one by a point or half point it stays with me quite a long time. With the over under at 54, it will probably be around this. Defense wins games so the score should be less than 54, but with the Patriots who knows, plus the Giants should be strong in the game with no turnovers. Best bet Teazer NE -6 and over 48, I may middle this and take NE -6 and under 60. I also do not reccommend betting alot on this game, because this game has the entire seasons statistics from both teams, and as I said the Vegas guys just are looking for 50% one way and 50% the other. These linesmakers are very sharp.
    Good Luck!

  • #2
    Yeah, this being the last game of the season it's a good bet there will be alot better matchups to play next season...I've found alot of things that I'm looking forward to winning with next year. I loved your thought on how a close loss stays with you while the wins you forget immediately...how true! As for this game, it will interesting to see if past logic repeats with "under" in the 1st and 3rd quarters and "over" in the second and fourth quarters.

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    • #3
      Just remember that the line has been altered for the betting public more than usual on this game. The favorite and the over. The line in Week 17 was NE -14.5 and the total was 44. It was a 3 pt game and the opening line for the SB did not reflect that. The total soared over in the 1st game and now has been adjusted 10 pts higher. The line on this game probably ought to be around -10 and 48. Not saying NE won't win by a landslide and the total soars again, but there is undoubtedly extra value in the dog and under. If I was going to play a parlay I'd buy NYG up to 14 for a full 2 TD's and play the under 55 (line is currently -12 and 55 at sports.com)

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