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  • Baseball Betting

    The season is starting in full swing today. I hate opening NIGHT baseball. Opening day is what it should be, in the Day. Now we have Japan games and opening NIGHT.

    I think all opening day games should be played in the day like some of them are.

    Ok, done with that rant and onto baseball betting.

    I am going to play mostly dogs this year or short favs. If I step out to a fav, I think I am going to put a limit on it at -135 at the most. My keys this year is to find some value teams and pitchers who bettors don;t catch up with too quick. I have a short list so far. I am going to look at some teams #3-5 guys in particular. i.e John Maine with the Mets is one I am keying on right away. If you get some good match ups with these guys against another team, not-so-good #4, there is some value there.

    A few teams I will watch and possibly play as doogs early--

    Cinnci Reds
    White Sox
    Twins
    Pirates

    And play against--

    Cubs
    Brewers
    Dbacks
    Rockies

    Those teams will have the public backing early due to the most recent games played that they remember in the playoffs.

    The cubs are always a good go-against b/c they have huge publuic following and they really are not all that good or better than anyone else, like Carpet pointed out in another thread.

    My team, The Cards, will be one to watch too. Their pitching blows, and they have a new line-up with a bunch of unproven guys besides Albert. I will spot play on and against them as I see how Larussa will handle this team. Everyone is picking them towards the bottom of the NL Central and I do like them in that underodg role as much as possible. If Glaus stays healthy, then they will contend and be in it at least 3/4 of the way though, but their pitching will be the issue. Issi is old and probably will lose his job or be on the Dl by the ned of the year, and Adam Wainwright is the #1 guy right now...ouch. Mulder and Carpenter are injured and may never be back to form.

    Good luck and I will post my plays when I can in hewre with my thoughts . If any of you are baseball bettors, please chime in too.

    Heres to a profitable season!

  • #2
    Going to start off slow for about 1/4 unit.

    Colorado -105 over STL...Wainwright/Francis

    Cubs/Brewers UNDER 10 (+100), Zambrano/Sheets...Think this one may have rain trouble. Think Zambrano bouces back with a solid year this year.

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    • #3
      Been awhile and I'm lookin for a home for baseball.

      I don't start playing regularly for a few weeks. So for now, I'm with you woodee. 1/4 units to get my feet wet.

      I played one earlier that's gotten away. Texas over 8.5 -115

      Having a hard time coming up with anything else today.

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      • #4
        FYI Yankees/Jays postponed

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        • #5
          I read somewhere about a way to use the run line to lower you juice on a favorite. There is actually a formula I think to figure out exactly how much to bet on the money line and the run line.

          For example, the cubs today. By game time they were -145. (rain delay now).

          Instead of laying -145, you play part of your wager on the run line and part on the money line.

          So, for a $100 bet, you could bet it like this.

          Cubs money line at -145 bet 72 to win 50
          Cubs run line at +135 bet 37 to win 50

          You now have the Cubs -109 to win 100

          You basically have the Cubs -1 instead of -1.5. I guess the formula part comes in to figure out exactly how much to wager on each in order to make it so that if the Cubs win by one, you break dead even. In my example, you would still lose 22 bucks in a one run game.

          Any thoughts on this strategy?

          Woody?

          Anyone?

          Looks like it might come in handy to lower juice on big favs and to eliminate getting beat by one run games.

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          • #6
            Yeah, I have heard this too and somebody over at Doc's Sports uses it quite a bit, Ferringo, I think it is. I think I read the article on their site which is pretty good and maybe in their archives. I believe Bettorsworld is a fan of theirs so hopefully its OK to mention them.

            If I come across it, i will let you know.

            I have to think about again to see the angle it provides but I a m pretty sure you are right on yuor thinking but it has to be done with Favs in a resonable range, nothing like -170 and up I am pretty sure.

            Freaking rain sweeping across the nation sucks!

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            • #7
              1-0 for me as the STL game got cancelled and saved me a loss as the cards were up 5-1.

              The chicago under was never in doubt until the end when both teams scored a bunch of runs after a 0-0 tie thru 7 innings!

              One I like on Tuesday is Houston +175 over SD. Stros got shut out on Monday by Peavey and face Chris Young tonight who had a great 1st half last year but was limited with an injury in the 2nd half. Houston has Brandon Backe on the mound and he is one of my under-valued guys I am going to watch this year. Think that doggy price is nice for a Stros win tonight!

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              • #8
                Onr run loss with Houston on Tuesday. Still a good play in my opinion at those odds.

                Wednesday:

                Atlanta -125 over Pitts...Good price on Braves at home here. Can't see them starting the year 0-3 especially at home. Think this one gets out of hand as the Braves bats awaken!


                looking at a coule more too. I feel like I am getting a good handle on some teams right off the bat. One game that was surprising to me on Tuesday was Texas-Seattle...JJ Putz blows a save in a game that was 1-1 until the 8th inning. Felix pitched well but Seattle's bats did not wake up until later and then Putz screws it up.

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                • #9
                  FWIW ... I am on the

                  NY Yankees/Mussina -138

                  for my inaugural MLB selection this season.

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                  • #10
                    Winner with the Braves on Wednesday.

                    Thursday day games--

                    Detroit -1.5 (+125) over KC

                    Philly -1.5 (+115) over Washington

                    kind of obvious plays in my eyes but with the RL odds its worth a shot playing both so if a split happen, at least some money is made. Like boith these teams to break out iof there offensive funks this afternoon. Plus both have Sp edges with Moyer and Bonderman on the hill.

                    Going to look at more RL games thi year in favorable situations.

                    Maybe more later...

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                    • #11
                      The chalk is killeing me but hgoing to try one more--

                      Atlanta -150

                      Atlanta -1.5 (+135)

                      One of those -1 bets where I am splitting 1 unit. Don;t know how much I like doing this but thought I would give it a shot. These are the kind of odds that are good for doint it with.

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                      • #12
                        Atlanta was no action since hamton was scrathed. so 0-2 on the day.

                        Early baseball--

                        Giants +170
                        over Brewers

                        Astros +155 over cubs

                        I like the value with these dogs as I don't think the brew crew or cubs and their SP have any reason to be favored by this much!

                        alos played detroit to get there first win, but that already stared before I posted.

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                        • #13
                          Heres a new sytem I am trying involving home teams. will track it for a bit before I start playing it. Heres what fits the system tonight--

                          Atlanta -125 over NY Mets

                          Oakland -110 over Cleveland



                          Almost made the grade--
                          Cinnci -10 over Philly

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                          • #14
                            Ok. Here we go. Back in action.

                            Bal/Sea under 9.5 -120
                            Cle/Oak under 8.5 +105
                            Balt +118 (trachsel)
                            A's -110 (duch.....)
                            Braves -121 (hudson)

                            with you on two woodee12

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                            • #15
                              Apr 4 TORONTO/Marcum -106

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