Grind it Out-Baseball plays and discussion

[woodee12]

Thought I would open a thread to post and discuss baseball plasy daily.

Dragon and everyone else, feel free to join me and lets make some cash.

Baseball is a grind, thats for sure, and to make some cash, we need some insight from people who follow their favorite teams closest. I follow the cards and cubs mostly, and dable in some teams that I see the oddsmakers ignoring once in a while and try to buy low before their odds start rising. TBay is a good example of this, but I think they have lost all of their value and now are a better go-against, than play in spots. The public falls in love with them and thus getting us better odds going against them. Remember the brewers last year? HOT in the first half, but came back to earth around the break and after.

So lets put our heads together and find some teams to ride and fade and also get info on your favorite team.

Good luck and please chime in when you can. I know its summer and its busy, and I won't be around all the time,but stop in when you can.

My baseball number so far are not great but i am hanging in there and waiting for that hot streak!

[dragon1952]

Yep, I definitely agree that there are teams to be identified going towards the second half of the season. Several teams had better than average (for them) starts. Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Arizona was playing way over their heads plus benefited from playing in the division early when everyone else was floundering...possible Florida a bit. All of those teams have come back to reality, especially Kansas City, which did so fairly quickly, and Arizona, which took a bit longer. Florida has been starting to lose steam and Tampa Bay has shown glimpses but are still hanging in there pretty good. St Louis may be over-performing some but as long as Pujols gets healthy they may be able to stick around. Houston has sure lost steam after their torrid May but they will probably turn it around and be good for another hot streak.
Under-performing teams to expect a rise out of would likely be Colorado, the Mets and if the Dodgers ever get healthy I'm sure they'll make a nice run. If Washington can ever get healthy, they may be worth a shot for awhile. They've currently got it as bad as anyone with Lo Duca, Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, Johnny Estrada and closer Chad Cordero all injured.
The Yankees will probably make their late season push as usual. Other than that I don't see a whole lot changing with the remaining teams.

[dragon1952]

Some plays to test the winds of change. I like the following today.
Oakland +132 @ Arizona - (Duchscherer 6-4, 2.20 vs Webb 11-2, 2.73) - Strong pitching match-up with Arizona still falling fast in the NL West. Webb can't win by himself and Duchscherer and the A's certainly capable here. The A's coming off of a road sweep of the Giants whereas the D'backs just lost 2 of 3 at home to lowly K.C.
Royals +122 @ St. Louis - (Davies 2-0, 1.53 vs Pineiro 2-3, 4.41) - Davis has been very good in his 3 starts, except for maybe a few too many walks, but he's only given up 1 run per start and no dingers yet in 17+ innings. Pineiro is 0-1 with 4 no-decisions his last 5 starts. K.C. is 7-8 since their 12 game losing streak, and have actually won 2 of their past 5 series and split with the Yanks. Pujols and Molina out for Cards.
Florida +145 @ Seattle - (Olsen 4-3, 3.27 vs Hernandez 5-5, 2.81) - Seattle certainly not deserving of being a -155 favorite having just lost 4 in a row at home, including a 3 game sweep by lowly Washington, and only winning 6 games out of their last 25. And not only do they have the worst record in MLB at 24-46, they also have the worst home record at 14-23.
Washington +109 @ Minnesota - (Lannan 4-7, 3.43 vs Hernandez 6-4, 5.84) - Livan Hernandez has been dreadful lately in giving up 30 runs and 56 hits over his past 24 innings. His last 5 starts, none going more than 6 innings, he's given up 7, 7, 5, 6 and 5 earned runs.

[woodee12]

http://www.bettorsworld.com/willie-randolph-fired.htm

See Jeff is posting some plays on the main page at the above link with write-ups.

What I see tonight and have played:

LA Angels -110 over Mets...LA off loss and have Lackey on the mound vs. Santana. Plus the Randolph thin happening. Good spot for LAA.

LA Dodgers -110 over Cinnci...Billingsly is coming into his own after a rough start. Cueto is going the other way. Dodgers on 5 game slide but see them making a run as Dragon noted. One of my buy low teams.

Boston even over Philly..Lester/Moyer. Sox on the road are generally a bad play especially against surging philly. But my gut says that Boston wins one tonight.

3 teamer for 1/4 unit--

Cards/Orioles/Seattle...worth a shot although I can see playing the dogs in all these too.

Leans that I satyed off--
Cubs + over Rays...Seems obvious and has value but then again its Kazmir at home vs. the cubs who played some BS game yesterday.

[woodee12]

total of the day--

Giants/Tigers OVER 7.5 (-105)

[woodee12]

3-1 on the day plus a small loss on the parlay, with my freaking Cards runing a nice score! at least Dragon hit with the royals. Cubs lose, cards lose--thats the NL central ina nutshell for you. cubs win, cards win....

Oh, and I see I spelled GRIND 'GRUND" --Grind it out is the correct term.

Hitiing the golf course for the day so may not be back in to post today so probably will pass.

[woodee12]

One play--

STL Cards -135 over KC...Looks like the best play on the board to me. And its not just a homer play. Cards at home, off loss, with Looper on the mound over erratic Bannister.

[woodee12]

cards lost- 0-1 on the day.

Thursday--

short on time--

Jays over Brewers...Seems like an easy one Burnett/Bush...Bush stinks.

STL over KC...Have to win one dont't they?

Cleveland over Colorado

[dragon1952]

Thursday - June 19

Dodgers +185 @ Cincinnati - (Stults 0-0, 0.00 vs Harang 3-9, 4.10) - The Reds, already missing a couple starters, are probably holding Griffey out again today too. Harang has had hard luck as his 3-9 record is really worse than his ERA might indicate. However, he did get his first win in 7 starts last time out. But there is good value for the Dodgers due to the fact that Cincy has 3 starters out, Harang has had hard luck overall and the Dodgers have evidently owned the Reds lately winning 6 of 7 this year and 20 of 26 since '05. The Reds have dropped 4 home games in a row now and have only scored 2 runs total in their last 3 games. Stults getting his first start here but still +185 seems rather excessive, all things considered.
Cubs +143 @ Tampa Bay - (Gallagher 3-3, 4.54 vs Shields 4-5, 3.91) - The Cubs haven't been swept all year. Shields has had a couple shaky outings in a row, although he has pitched much better at home, but hasn't pitched in 9 days due to a suspension. I don't know if that's a help or a hindrance but I'll look for the Cubs to avoid their first sweep of the season.

[dragon1952]

More -
Houston +108 @ Baltimore - (Chacon 2-2, 4.69 vs Burres 5-5, 5.28) - Things are getting ridiculous for the Astros. They've lost 7 in a row now and 17 of their last 21! Yet they are only a +108 dog here? Well they've got to win sometime and vs Burres seems to be as good of a spot as any. Burres has gotten rocked in his last 4 games in giving up 24 runs and 35 hits in 18 innings, including 7 dingers. The Astros have come close the last 2 games. Baltimore came from behind to beat them by a run in the 1st game, and then Houston lost by 1 last night in extra innings. Chacon held the red hot Yanks to only 1 run on 3 hits over 6+ innings last time out so maybe that will carry over to this start.
Chicago White Sox RL -1.5 +120 vs Pittsburgh - (Floyd 7-3, 3.30 vs Dumatrait 3-3, 3.84) - Sticking with the hot Sox who have outscored the Pirates 24-7 in the first 2 games. Pirates missing 2 key players in RF Xavier Nady and C Ryan Doumit.

[dragon1952]

You know, I just started looking at Jeff's Bettorsworld picks the other day (I never knew he was making picks) and have noticed how similar a couple of our write-ups have been so far. I just wanted to say that I never look at anyone's picks prior to posting mine. The same information is out there for everyone to research so if write-ups sound the same it's because we're all doing similar research and keying on some of the same things. Having said that, I glanced at his picks after posting mine and had to chuckle at how similar our Cubs pick is.

[dragon1952]

Friday - June 20

Texas -117 @ Washington - (Millwood vs Redding) - Not sure that Washington can generate enough offense to win many games until they get healthy. They were just outscored 22-6 in a 3 game sweep at Minnesota. Texas 5-4 on current road trip, having taken 2 of 3 at K.C. and 2 of 3 at Atlanta, and dropping 2 of 3 to the Mets.
NY Yankees RL -1.5 +140 - (Mussina vs Volquez) - Volquez has been outstanding but the Reds are in an offensive funk right now having lost 5 in a row and getting beat by 2 or more runs in all of them. Yanks on fire lately and may only need 3 or 4 runs to cover. Mussina 9-1 with 1 no decision last 11 starts.
Pittsburgh +142 vs Toronto - (Duke vs Halladay) - Both teams have hit the skids lately but Toronto has lost 5 in a row and Pittsburgh is back home at least where they are 21-15. Decent home dog opportunity. Nady probably still out for the Pirates though.
Colorado RL -1.5 +160 vs NY Mets - (Cook vs Maine) - These two pitchers faced each other a month ago in Colorado with Cook pitching a complete game 4 hitter and getting the W 4-1. That was without Holliday in the lineup too. Colorado starting to heat up a bit. Church and Alou still out for the Mets.

[dragon1952]

Saturday - June 21

Observations and thoughts -
Can the Mets be making a move? They've won 4 out of 5 now and are back to even .500 at 36-36 and only 4.5 games out. I thought maybe Colorado was coming around with a 5 of 6 winning streak. They are starting to get healthy with only Clint Barnes still MIA. Also, they were about 20 games out not too long ago, and due to Arizona's collapse find themselves at only 8 back even though they are still in last. Despite the loss yesterday, Detroit looks like they are ready to make up some ground. Some records that are starting to even out a bit....Atlanta's home record is starting to look a little more reasonable. They've all of a sudden lost 5 of their last 6 home games, and even dropped one at home to lowly Seattle yesterday. Another surprise was cold Cincinnati putting the brakes on the Yankees winning streak at home vs Mussina. I think in the NL, the teams to look at are the Mets, Dodgers and Colorado. And I still believe Houston will be good for at least a short term run here shortly. And in the AL I don't expect the Angels or Boston to lose much steam, but Detroit and the Yankees will probably keep gaining ground.

Picks for today -
NY Mets +110 @ Colorado - (Martinez vs Jiminez) - Don't think much about Ubaldo and his 1-7, 4.85. His stats actually look a little better than they really are I think due to 3 good games vs the Giants.
Florida +128 @ Oakland - (Nolasco vs Eveland) - I like Ricky Nolasco and have done pretty well going with him. He should be worth a shot here.
Seattle +155 @ Atlanta - (Washburn vs Jurrjens) - Atlanta lineup not as scary without Chipper, and SS Escobar looks like he may be out today too. Washburn has been inconsistent but has had some good ones. Seattle ripped the Braves yesterday 10-2.
Minnesota -121 vs Arizona - (Blackburn vs Owings) - Arizona still on the skids and Owings has been getting rocked pretty good lately. Minnesota has reeled off 4 W's in a row now and 6 of 7.
Dodgers +125 vs Cleveland - (Park vs Sabathia) Neither team lighting it up lately and Cleveland has not been a good enough road team to be favored. A decent home dog.

[dragon1952]

Tough 2-3 day on Saturday with the Dodgers losing in extra innings and the Mariners giving up 2 in the bottom of the 8th and another 2 in the bottom of the 9th to lose by a run.
Passed on Sunday and passing on Monday. I'll wait for the full slate on Tuesday and will welcome the new match-ups.

[woodee12]

I was out of the loop over the weekend and did not play too much. But all I can say is that I do not crae much for capping interleague play.