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1-1 last night with a winner on Ball St (and the over), and a loss with Toledo.
I researched these games last night for quite awhile. I have read Boone's picks and we appear to agree on all of them, which may or may not be a good thing. I have not looked to see if Bettorsworld has anything on these games yet.
TCU -1.5 @ Utah -
I love the TCU play. They are only giving up an average of 7.5 pts in MWC play, and that includes a game against BYU where they destroyed them 32-7. They are 6-0 in conference play, averaging 35 pts per game with their smallest margin of victory being 6 pts. They are 1st in the conference in:
Rushing defense (38.9 ypg allowed), scoring defense (10.8 ppg), scoring offense (36.6 ppg), total defense (214 yds per game), pass efficiency defense (14 INT's and 7 TD's allowed, both best in MWC), KO returns (28.8 avg return), turnover margin (+1.5 per game), sacks (3.8 per game avg) and tackles for loss (8.5 per game).
And they are 2nd in:
Rushing offense (224 ypg, 2nd only to A.F.), total offense (408 ypg), passing defense (175 ypg) and punt returns (12.7 avg).
Utah is 2nd, 3rd and 4th in many of those same categories, but they are giving up 8 pts more per game in conference play. Utah has 6 fewer INT's and has given up 5 more passing TD's. QB Johnson is not very mobile with a 1 yard per rush average and just 1 TD.
TCU takes care of the ball better, has the better defense and running game, puts pressure on the QB better and has the mobile QB. QB Dalton has 308 rushing yards on 73 carries and 6 TD's. TCU has an amazing 32 rushing TD's which is 12 more than Utah. TCU has double revenge for losses to Utah the past 2 years.
Maryland +3 @ Virginia Tech -
This is a lesser play. Virginia Tech is a very offensively-challenged team that relies way too much on defense and special teams to win games for them. They are 5-3, but 2-2 in the ACC. They have lost their last 2 games, which were away games vs ACC foes Boston College and Florida St. When they beat good teams, it usually isn't by very much. Their 3 wins this year against decent competition have been by 3, 3 and 5 pt margins. The Hokies are in the bottom half to bottom third in most ACC statistical categories, except they are 4th in rushing offense with 160 ypg, and they are 2nd in TO margin with a +1.25 per game. They are last in total offense and are 5th in total defense. Both QB's, Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon, are banged up and recovering from ankle sprains, but they are coming off of a bye week and may or may not be fully recovered. They are still listed as questionable. If Tyrod Taylor can't move as well as he normally can though, it would be a huge disadvantage for Tech.
Maryland is 6-2 overall and are leading the ACC Atlantic division at 3-1. They have the leading rusher in the ACC in Da' Rel Scott who is averaging 102 ypg. Maryland leads the ACC in net punting (38 yds) and Virginia Tech is last in that category (30 yds). Maryland is 3rd in rushing offense, just ahead of V.T. with 166 ypg rushing, and they are 2nd in total offense with 366 ypg. Maryland is also coming off of a bye.
This should be a very close game. If Virginia Tech is to win, they will likely have to block a punt or kick, or get a defensive or special teams TD. To give you an example, in Virginia Tech's 28-23 loss to Boston College a couple weeks ago, the extent of the Hokies scoring was 3 FG's and 2 defensive TD's. V.T. only managed 240 yds of offense in that game.
Denver +3 @ Cleveland and OV 46 -
This is kind of a tough one to figure the side on, but I think the over looks really good. Both teams are seriously lacking in defense. Cleveland is 25th in total defense (28th vs the run, 13th vs the pass) and Denver is 29th (26th vs the run, 27th vs the pass). Denver has the 4th best passing game, but they have been having trouble running the ball. Cleveland hasn't had much luck at either, although they have improved a lot in their last few games. Actually, Cleveland could have very easily gone 5-0 in their last 5 games. Denver has given up at least 24 pts in 6 of their 8 games. Cleveland gave up 37 pts and almost 450 yds to Baltimore last week, including almost 200 yds rushing. If Denver can't get something going on the ground in this game, they can't do it against anyone. The much-hyped Ryan Torain may be carrying the load this week, but Shanahan has indicated that he doesn't want to force too much workload on him right away. Which probably means that he will rely primarily on Cutler and the passing game. Jamal Lewis should be able to get 200 yds on this Denver defense. If they can get the ball rolling on the ground, it makes you wonder how much they will let Brady Quinn put the ball in the air. If they play keep away and grind the clock, it could possibly put a damper on the over. But then again, anyone should be able to pass on the Broncos.
Denver has lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5. They really need a win badly, and with the edge at QB I think they can. If they can get the running game going even a little, which they should be able to do, then Cutler should be able to carve them up pretty good. This is the softest defense they seen in quite a while.
I researched these games last night for quite awhile. I have read Boone's picks and we appear to agree on all of them, which may or may not be a good thing. I have not looked to see if Bettorsworld has anything on these games yet.
TCU -1.5 @ Utah -
I love the TCU play. They are only giving up an average of 7.5 pts in MWC play, and that includes a game against BYU where they destroyed them 32-7. They are 6-0 in conference play, averaging 35 pts per game with their smallest margin of victory being 6 pts. They are 1st in the conference in:
Rushing defense (38.9 ypg allowed), scoring defense (10.8 ppg), scoring offense (36.6 ppg), total defense (214 yds per game), pass efficiency defense (14 INT's and 7 TD's allowed, both best in MWC), KO returns (28.8 avg return), turnover margin (+1.5 per game), sacks (3.8 per game avg) and tackles for loss (8.5 per game).
And they are 2nd in:
Rushing offense (224 ypg, 2nd only to A.F.), total offense (408 ypg), passing defense (175 ypg) and punt returns (12.7 avg).
Utah is 2nd, 3rd and 4th in many of those same categories, but they are giving up 8 pts more per game in conference play. Utah has 6 fewer INT's and has given up 5 more passing TD's. QB Johnson is not very mobile with a 1 yard per rush average and just 1 TD.
TCU takes care of the ball better, has the better defense and running game, puts pressure on the QB better and has the mobile QB. QB Dalton has 308 rushing yards on 73 carries and 6 TD's. TCU has an amazing 32 rushing TD's which is 12 more than Utah. TCU has double revenge for losses to Utah the past 2 years.
Maryland +3 @ Virginia Tech -
This is a lesser play. Virginia Tech is a very offensively-challenged team that relies way too much on defense and special teams to win games for them. They are 5-3, but 2-2 in the ACC. They have lost their last 2 games, which were away games vs ACC foes Boston College and Florida St. When they beat good teams, it usually isn't by very much. Their 3 wins this year against decent competition have been by 3, 3 and 5 pt margins. The Hokies are in the bottom half to bottom third in most ACC statistical categories, except they are 4th in rushing offense with 160 ypg, and they are 2nd in TO margin with a +1.25 per game. They are last in total offense and are 5th in total defense. Both QB's, Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon, are banged up and recovering from ankle sprains, but they are coming off of a bye week and may or may not be fully recovered. They are still listed as questionable. If Tyrod Taylor can't move as well as he normally can though, it would be a huge disadvantage for Tech.
Maryland is 6-2 overall and are leading the ACC Atlantic division at 3-1. They have the leading rusher in the ACC in Da' Rel Scott who is averaging 102 ypg. Maryland leads the ACC in net punting (38 yds) and Virginia Tech is last in that category (30 yds). Maryland is 3rd in rushing offense, just ahead of V.T. with 166 ypg rushing, and they are 2nd in total offense with 366 ypg. Maryland is also coming off of a bye.
This should be a very close game. If Virginia Tech is to win, they will likely have to block a punt or kick, or get a defensive or special teams TD. To give you an example, in Virginia Tech's 28-23 loss to Boston College a couple weeks ago, the extent of the Hokies scoring was 3 FG's and 2 defensive TD's. V.T. only managed 240 yds of offense in that game.
Denver +3 @ Cleveland and OV 46 -
This is kind of a tough one to figure the side on, but I think the over looks really good. Both teams are seriously lacking in defense. Cleveland is 25th in total defense (28th vs the run, 13th vs the pass) and Denver is 29th (26th vs the run, 27th vs the pass). Denver has the 4th best passing game, but they have been having trouble running the ball. Cleveland hasn't had much luck at either, although they have improved a lot in their last few games. Actually, Cleveland could have very easily gone 5-0 in their last 5 games. Denver has given up at least 24 pts in 6 of their 8 games. Cleveland gave up 37 pts and almost 450 yds to Baltimore last week, including almost 200 yds rushing. If Denver can't get something going on the ground in this game, they can't do it against anyone. The much-hyped Ryan Torain may be carrying the load this week, but Shanahan has indicated that he doesn't want to force too much workload on him right away. Which probably means that he will rely primarily on Cutler and the passing game. Jamal Lewis should be able to get 200 yds on this Denver defense. If they can get the ball rolling on the ground, it makes you wonder how much they will let Brady Quinn put the ball in the air. If they play keep away and grind the clock, it could possibly put a damper on the over. But then again, anyone should be able to pass on the Broncos.
Denver has lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5. They really need a win badly, and with the edge at QB I think they can. If they can get the running game going even a little, which they should be able to do, then Cutler should be able to carve them up pretty good. This is the softest defense they seen in quite a while.
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