Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

college football 11/11

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • college football 11/11

    Ball st first -11.5 525-500
    ball st -20.5 330-300

  • #2
    This game is scary. If you look at the link, it appears that Ball St opened as a 14.5 favorite.
    http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/t...early-line.htm

    If that is accurate, then the line has jumped 5.5 pts in some places, while the total has stayed about the same. Ball St. is the public team here with it's undefeated record and with Miami-OH at just 2-7, and everybody just watched Ball St trounce a decent N. Illinois team on national TV by 31 pts. Usually, the oddsmakers will pad the line a bit when they are expecting lots of public action. So say they padded it by a FG, and now the line is 9 pts higher than it possibly should have been? I'm making some assumptions here, of course, but they are educated assumptions. I'll also assume that maybe the sharps jumped on the line early, and then the public bet it even higher. I doubt if many sharps would touch it now. I would expect the line to remain where it is, and maybe even drop a half pt or so. They certainly don't want to raise it anymore because bettors that got in early would be tempted to 'middle' it.
    Having said that, this Ball St team is explosive! They just dominated N. Illinois and made it look easy. They have won their 5 conference games by 17, 21, 31, 22 and 31. Their average points scored in those games has been 39.2 and they have given up an average of just 14.8.
    Miami-OH has averaged just 17.6 pts per game in their 5 conference games, while allowing an average of 31.2. In their last home game, Kent St (1-4 in conference) annihilated them 54-21.
    Some things to consider though.
    1) Let's assume the Kent St game was just a terrible game, which it was. Miami turned the ball over 6 times and gave up over 300 yds rushing. Kent St had a short field all night and had 4 TD runs of 2 yds or less in the 2nd quarter alone. Take away the Kent St game, and Miami, OH was much more competitive, losing at N. Illinois by just 4 and winning at 3-3 Bowling Green by 7. The other 2 games were losses at 2-3 Temple by 18 and a loss at 3-2 Buffalo by 20. In the Buffalo game, the Bulls ripped off a 64 yd TD run with 2 min left in the game to make it look a lot worse than it really was.
    2) Ball St is coming off of a big win vs then 4-1 N. Illinois, and they have a huge revenge road game at 5-0 Central Michigan next week, followed by another big home game vs 5-1 Western Michigan to close out the regular season. Both are MAC West division foes that are right on their asses. In the Central Michigan match-up last year, the Chippewas put up 58 pts and over 650 yds of offense on Ball St in their own backyard.
    3) It probably isn't an issue, but Ball St has had a short week, coming off of that Wednesday night game last week.
    4) There is light rain in the area that is expected to continue through game time, and temps in the upper 30's. The stadium has FieldTurf though, so probably not as big of an issue as if there was regular turf. But the football should be wet anyway.
    5) Miami-OH does have some injuries on defense and QB, although they still have a capable starter at QB.

    I'm a little worried about the look-ahead, which will also be a nationally televised game on ESPN2. When you look at the game on paper, it sure looks like Ball St should win by 3 TD's easily. I actually placed a small bet on Ball St -19.5 last night without doing much research. Now I'm kind of second guessing myself. The line I see is still -19.5 and 54.5 (www.sports.com). I'm thinking a 6.5 pt teaser would be a decent play if you just wanted a little bit on the game for fun (I mean, after all, you can't have a week-night game and no bet, right?). Miami -OH +26 and UN 61, and hope there aren't too many easy pts?

    Comment


    • #3
      Yep, just dropped to -19 as I was writing.

      Comment


      • #4
        Now down to -18 and 54.

        Comment


        • #5
          Cool, Mia-OH +26 and UN 61, and Ball St -12 and OV 48.

          Comment


          • #6
            ball st second half
            over 27.5 345-300
            -11 315-300

            Comment


            • #7
              I like Temple -1 at Kent tonight. Better schedule and better team. Flashes QB is their lone bright spot. Temple should have a better record than they do b/c of a bunch of close losses.

              Would lean NIU in the other game, but tought to call.

              Comment


              • #8
                Woodee -
                as a former chippewa alum i follow them pretty close. I can't believe they are getting points tonight. I mean, i know its on the road...but still. What does NIU have to play for? CMU has everything to play for! Plus, you saw what Ball St did to NIU last week - CMU's QB are just as good or better and their receivers are way better. The only fear I have is that NIU might be looking to show the country that they are not as bad as they looked. I just don't see how NIU wins this game. CMU may not win by 20 but I don't see them losing this game. I'm taking CMU on the ML BIGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!

                Comment


                • #9
                  I agree after looking at it a bit more andmake a small play on Cental Mich + but it is one of those goofy lines. NIU is solid at home but I think the air attack may be too much for NIU's Defense in the end.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The NIU line is very curious. I am not sure how they are a favorite either but I am taking the Huskies because Vegas did make them a favorite and I think are telling us something.

                    We'll see.

                    Good Luck,
                    Swicat

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I ended up playing a tease--

                      CMU +11
                      NY Jets (thursday) +10.5

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        well woodee - you are safe...for me..its iffy. what a choke job by the chips - giving up 24 unanswered points over the last 16 mins of the game. Ridiculous. Hopefully they put NIU out of their misery in OT

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X