Dinger's NFC Championship Picks

[Dinger]

4-0 Last Week!!!

I was not going to post this week because I'm 2nd place in the NFL weekly contest. I didn't want to tilt my hand...but it's fun and free contest...so here we go.

Developed my own system about 5 years ago. Points, yardage , time of possession, turnovers, strength of schedule just to name a few indicators.
(Excel Spreadsheet)

Playoffs
6-2

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dingers System: Pit -.5 (Half a point)
Las Vegas: Pitt -5
Difference: 4.5 points
As stated last week the Ravens are ranked number 1 in my system regarding power rating. The formula developed is a trade secret...zero bias..however there are some flaws I'm still working on....i.e. injuries. The system likes the Ravens +5 2*'s

Philadelphia at Arizona
Dingers System: Phl -6.5
Las Vegas: Phl -3
Difference: 3.5 points
This one hurts as I'm a Cardinals fan and my system likes the Eagles...gulp.
Watching most of the Cardinals games this year, this team is very good when it has something to play for. Looks like a small play on the Eagles.
Eagles -3 1*

My pick of the week looks likes the Ravens. Depends on the hook...which way it goes...so I might switch to the Eagles. I was all over the Ravens last week until the contest posted +2.5...gave me a scare...switched pick to the Cardinals. Worked out either way...luckily. I already got beat by the .5 hook during the season with the Saints (+3) vs Bears. Contest posted +2.5 and the Bears won by 3....crap!! Once bitten...twice shy.
Still posted a 14-5 record in the contest this year.

OK...goodluck all!!!

Go Cardinals...as a fan...not as the bettor.

[Boone Moone]

Be careful Dinger !!!.........There's a particular Bettorsworld member here, who's name I won't mention (It's Jpehl), that considers this to be "touting your picks", "patting yourself on the back" and gloating...........Oh wait a minute.......that's only if I'm the one doing it.........So your cool .

Good Luck to you this weekend........Hope your system stays hot !!!

[jpehl]

Its Odd how Dinger lays all his picks out there and win or lose he doesn't come back and say well I went 0-4 but I had 6 other plays that I didn't mention that all won. Weird huh how normal people do things. Now stop polluting the board with your chicken shit rants.

Dinger I'm sorry to even post stuff like this in your thread. Nice plays last week.

[Boone Moone]

If I want anymore lip out of you boy, I'll reach out and grab it..............Now take your slobbering whining little-boy bitching over to the Nickleodeon website where you belong........I think they're giving out free teething rings with every new membership this month..........This is a MAN'S game......Yah fallah?

[bigdogdan2]

Dinger, I enjoy your picks and analysis of the games, so you can ignore everyone else.

BTW, I'm from AZ, so I'm a Cardinals fan. Pretty crazy here lately.
Hope you picked up a little for the cardinals winning the superbowl earlier as there were some pretty crazy odds.

[Dinger]

Great to be a Cardinal fan. Can't tell you how many times the season was over around week 10 and I would start looking at top 10 college draft prospects for next year. Un-chartered territory for the Cards.

Great stadium; coach; players....great season for them.

Still no respect.

The stadium will go nuts....it's going to be very loud...look for Eagles / McNabb to have trouble with audibles and false starts.

I missed out on betting the Cards to win the Superbowl. Preseason / pre-playoffs.

Go Cardinals...win vs philly...win the Superbowl so I can check this off my bucket list.

[cowboyfan2]

i'm sure the nursing homes will be crazy come sunday!!

break out the ben-gay!

[widestrides]

Dinger,

Since you've been a good sport and posted your leans, I was also thinking to do the same.

I thought you would be on your beloved Cards and since I was leaning towards the Cards, I was going to let you know that I might be taking them in the contest. That would give you the option of going against them and me or choosing another game or total.

But since you seem to be leaning towards the Eagles, I guess there will be no problem.

And I also favor the Steelers, so looks like you and I may be already poised to be on opposite sides. Yikes!

Collar getting a little tight around my neck after loosing out on the Titans on a bad beat this weekend. Titans with almost 400 total yards and lose to the Ravens with barely 200 total yards!

Like you, I also had a bad beat as I lost on the blown call on the Pitt/SD game. To think that could end up costing me. I thought I was over that one!

Anyway we both have to watch out for those guys right behind us gunning for the loot! There are only 8 possible picks this week so it will be interesting.

What lines will khandor give us?

Eagles are -3.5 and even -4 in some places.
Steelers are -5.5 or -6. Didn't I see it up to -6.5 for a while?

GLTA

[Dinger]

My system not a big fan of the Cardinals, with big loses to the Eagles; Vikings; Patriots.

However they were no 10 point underdog to the Panthers.

We will see what number is posted. I'm liking the Ravens then picking the Eagles over my Cards...but we'll wait and see.

Goodluck Widestrides...nice picks this year.

[dragon1952]

The problem with those big losses to the Eagles, Vikings and Patriots is that they were basically meaningless games for Arizona and huge games for the others. And 2 were on the road in bad situations. McNabb and the Eagles coming off of 2 embarrassments and McNabb getting benched, and in terrible weather up in New England in a must win for the Pats. In the Pats game it was snowing and windy and the Pats never let up. Both of those teams ran up the score after it was long decided. It was like watching Florida run up the score on an inferior opponent.
In the Minnesota game things got out of hand quick with an 82 yd punt return, followed by short TD drives of just 47 and 23 yds set up by a Warner INT and a Boldin fumble, and the Vikes were up 21-0 after the 1st Q. But things did settle down after that with the game going 14-14 the rest of the way.
Regardless, Arizona had already clinched and all the others were fighting for their lives. Anyway, don't forget Philly's pathetic performance at Washington in a must win game in Week 16, or in Weeks 10-12 in pretty much must win games. As it turns out, they weren't, but they were thought to be at the time. And don't think Arizona doesn't remember that Philly ran up the score and embarrassed the hell out of them.
Anyway, I'd count those as losses against Arizona for sure, but I don't think I'd weigh them nearly as heavily as their other games.
I'm with widestrides in that I'm leaning Pittsburgh and Arizona.

[hart attack]

Florida running up the score on an inferior opponent?

news flash- IF Meyer leaves Tebow in for all 4th Qs this season he walks away with 2nd Heisman. Bradford's sooners are who you mean about running up a score vs inferior opponents. you are waaaaay off on this one.
charger hangover???

[dragon1952]

Florida running up the score on an inferior opponent?

news flash- IF Meyer leaves Tebow in for all 4th Qs this season he walks away with 2nd Heisman. Bradford's sooners are who you mean about running up a score vs inferior opponents. you are waaaaay off on this one.
charger hangover???

Hey .... I'm old, OK?. I still remember the Spurrier coached Gators. So to me, Florida is a team that historically is a good example of that. If you want to insert Oklahoma, go for it.
BTW....I was on the Steelers big-time

[Boone Moone]

Very good points you raise there Dragon in regards to the blowout losses by the Cardinals on the road........and the way Philly floundered when the chips were down........I'm beginning to lean towards Arizona at home -- if for nothing else, the fact that Mc Nabb always seems to save his worst performances for the big games, and it also helps to know that Kurt Warner can carry a team to the Super Bowl when he's on, and he's definitely been "on".

Dinger says that the crowd should be quite fanatical, and by all means they should be.........This is a first for them, and the Cards are a damn good home team anyway........I just hope it doesn't turn into one of those wierd games like the Titans/Ravens last week where the better team beat themselves by disintegrating everytime they got into the Red Zone........I find it odd that the Eagles, who shouldn't even be here (very lucky to have grabbed the 6th seed) are favored, and being bet at the moment as if they've already won the game..........We'll see.

[dragon1952]

I think a lot of it has to do with the previous blow out win at Philadelphia, and the way Arizona played down the stretch (when there was nothing to play for). Bettors forget that Arizona turned it on at the end when they wanted to (against Seattle and Atlanta), and I think everyone thinks Carolina was a fluke. In my opinion, the Eagles got way too much credit for beating Minnesota and the Giants, and Arizona didn't get enough for Atlanta and Carolina, which should have been the tougher match-ups. The Sagarin ratings have Philly at #3 with a rating of 28.75, right behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and I think they should be at #6 between Indianapolis and New England with a rating of around 25 at best. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagar...terstitialskip
That would make Arizona about a 1 pt favorite. I think Arizona defense is better than people think. A lot of teams were playing catch-up against them early on, and then they had the letdown after clinching. If you throw out the Giant and Viking home games, the Cards gave up an average of just 18.5 pts per game in 7 home games (including Atlanta), and 24 pts were the most anyone scored. They beat a Dallas team that was at full strength and before they imploded, they beat a red hot Buffalo team and a decent Miami team at home. Plus an 11-5 Atlanta team. They held Atlanta to just 250 yds and carolina to just 269. They held Turner/Norwood and Williams/Stewart to just 135 yds total. Except for 1 play, Westbrook has been pretty much held in check in the playoffs. Philly has been getting by mostly on defense and by lousy offense by their opponents. I think they need to come up huge in this game defensively to have a chance.