NCAA Tournament ~ Saturday Plays 3/19 (1st half of Sweet 16)

[Taxman]

Damn it! I wrote up a great bit on my plays and somehow it did not post and was lost.

Here's what I have and I will try to recall what I wrote:

There are some really odd lines today...

Richmond -3.5
UConn -3.5
BYU +2

Richmond -3.5
This is the 9 time that a 12 is taking on a 13. 12 seeds are 8-1, only Valpo a 13 seed in 98 beat a 12 FL St.

Richmond is a better team. They beat Purdue. Their defense is stifling holding opponents to 40% FG and 30% 3PT shooting.

Morehead St. had the perfect storm for the upset against Louisville. Louisville was 7 for 16 FT shooting. Missed a 1 and 1 at the end. Blew a 7 point lead with 10 to go, came back from 5 down to take a lead of 4 with 40 seconds left. On top of that Knowles was hurt and missed the final 9 minutes of the game.

Add to the fact that Morehead State shot 38% against Louisville. Unfortuantely, that will not get it done against Richmond.

Richmond is the better team, and I am getting on this short number before it moves to 5 or more.

UConn -3.5
A couple of weeks ago, UConn was a 4 point road dog in Cincinnati. Well, they lead the entire first half, only trailed for about 30 seconds in the 2H. Had a 13 point lead during the 2H and won by 8.

UConn dominated Cincinnati and I can see this happending again as I don't really believe in Cincinnati. It's a conference rematch and these teams know it each well.

Once again, I will go with the better team and the hot team...UConn -3.5

BYU+2 or ML for valueI cannot recall the last time a 3 seed was a dog in the second round? Has that ever happended? Yes, I know BYU is down a player. As a result, I believe that along with the Gonzaga mystique in the tournament is creating this unique value.

I'm a sucker for this wrong team favored line...I'm sucked into BYU ML as I will not need the points.

[The Boys]

Underdog Game of the Day

Cincinnati +4 -110 (Bet US)

[Taxman]

12 v 13

2009 Arizona 71 Cleveland St 57 AZ -2.5 U 134.5
2008 Villanova 84 Siena 72 Villanova -5.5 O 144.5
2008 Western Kentucky 72 San Diego 63 Western Kentucky -5 U 135.5
2001 Gonzaga 85 Indiana St. 68 Gonzaga -7 O 145.5
1998 Florida St. 77 Valparaiso 83 OT Valparaiso +8.5 O 144
1993 George Washington 90 Southern 80
1992 New Mexico State 81 Southwest Louisiana 73
1991 Eastern Michigan 71 Penn State 68 OT


The log speaks for itself, Richmond is now a 2 unit play

[widestrides]

Taxman,

Good stuff on Richmond. I agree they got the perfect storm and super lucky to beat Louisville. But they got Faried and Harper.

I wouldn't normally find any comfort in the fact that past 12s have beaten 13s. Can't see how that influences this game. Usually not that much difference between a 12 and a 13, but this year, maybe. Richmond as a 12 was only a 2.5 dog to #5 Vandy, while #13 Moorehead was a 10 point dog to #4 Louisivlle. Hmmm? Maybe I just talked myself into the fact that this #12 IS much better than this #13!

Up to 4.5 so you were wise to grab that early line. I'll watch and see what the halftime line brings.

GL

[widestrides]

Original lean was to Gonzaga as they were playing very well and very intelligently. But you are right - a 11 seed favored over a 3!

Like UConn to stay hot, although Cinci was hitting their shots the other night.

[widestrides]

UConn -3.5
Gonzaga -1
K-State +3.5

Waiting on Temple to get +6 maybe.

[widestrides]

WV/KY over 72.5 2H

[widestrides]

Scratch that 2H play.

[Taxman]

Wide, I agree with you that history does not have any impact on this game. However, I wanted to see if there was a disparity between a 12 seed and a 13 seed. Based upon the history it certainly looks like it. Generally, the lower mid-major automatic berths are 13 and 14 seeds and the the 12s are usually the bubble teams.

I saw Faried and Harper. I just think that Morehead must shoot better than 38% against a stubborn Richmond D.

Richmond's RPI is 41 SOS 126 Morehead St. RPI 77, SOS 186.

I don't mean to sway anyone's opinion, just trying to handicap a race to make sure I get a good value on my investment.

GL2U

[Taxman]

Richmond -.5 2H

Richmond is controlling this game. Other than a dunk and two put backs from missed free throws, Morehead State's offense has had little success. I see Richmond winning this half as well.

[widestrides]

BYU now favored by 1! 2-2.5 point move.

Adding a little more to my Zags play.

[Taxman]

Wow, I'm just amazed that the handicapping today went exactly as planned.

[widestrides]

Great calls Taxman. You really found the superior teams despite the lines trying to tell us otherwise.

Gonzaga looked so good and so smart against a good St. John's team, but BYU was just firing on all cylinders today. And Richmond outclassed Morehead State and you were able to see it confirmed in the first half and make some more in the 2H! UConn gave up some ground in the 2H but finished strong.

I blew it on Gonzaga and finished up 3-4 on the day. Still up for the week, but the juice is taking a bite out of it. 20-17 for the tourney so far.

[widestrides]

What did you all think of the Pitt Butler ending?

I thought they had to call the one on Butler as he clearly made contact and obstructed him, but the last one was just contact during a rebound. Let 'em decide it in OT. Did he actually call it on the rebound or on Howard's attempt to throw it the length of the court?

[Taxman]

In my opinion, what would have happened if the foul on Pitt wasn't call and the rebound fell out of Howard's hand and Pitt made the shot at the buzzer? All the coach yell "don't foul", he grabbed his arm and if it gives you an advantage then it has to be called.