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Current line - Chicago -6.5 / 46.5
I've been doing some research on this game and have noticed a few interesting things.
Chicago has given up an avg of just 14 ppg which is skewed quite a bit by the 3 and 6 they gave up to Jax and StL. They gave up 21, 23 and 18 in the other 3 games. What's impressive is how they have dominated in their 4 wins where they won by margins of 20, 17, 16 and 38. Their lone loss was a horrendous game at Green Bay a week after the Packers lost at home to the 49ers on opening day....probably not a great spot for the Bears at that time.
Usually I'll play a 7 pt teaser on these night games. At first look I was tempted by the dog plus the points, but there are some things I don't like at all about that.
1. The Bears are only giving up 291 ypg of offense, just 65.8 ypg on the ground, and have allowed just 1 rushing TD all year... so we have the home team with a stellar rushing defense. That's a bad combination for the road team.
2. The Bears have been very good at creating turnovers with an amazing 13 INT's already to go with 4 fumble recoveries, and 5 of the INT's have been returned for TD's. That's 17 TO's and 5 TD's in 5 games and a +9 turnover ratio. The Lions have only forced 6 TO's and have given up 4 P/KO TD returns, 1 pick six and 1 fumble return for a TD. So the Bears have had a very large advantage on both defense and special teams so far.
4. The Bear defense has 18 sacks over 5 games, tied for 8th, and is only allowing a 28.8 success rate on 3rd down.
So it looks like Detroit will have it's hands full dealing with both the Bear defense and special teams. The opposition has been able to key on Calvin Johnson this year and as a result he has been held to a total of just 1 TD thus far. Compare this year with last and there is a stark difference. Through 5 games last year Stafford had 13 TD's and 4 INT's and Calvin Johnson had 9 TD's. This year (although Stafford has missed part of a game) Stafford has 4 TD's and 5 INT's and Calvin has just the 1 TD. And the Lions haven't fared well against the 2 better defenses they have faced (both on the road) as SF and Min held them to 19 and 13 pts, although Detroit did put up 23 in regulation vs Philly their last game out.
Chicago has averaged close to 30 ppg, but 35 pts have come from defense/special teams. Exclude those points and they are still avg'ing nearly 23ppg. Take away the stellar defense that Green Bay played when they held Chicago to 10pts and the Bears have scored 41, 23, 34 and 41.
The potential is there for some points to be put up, and it would help if Detroit continued to give them up and Chicago's DEF/ST continued their trend. Hester is one of the best after all, so I would seriously hesitate to try and predict an under, but it certainly isn't out of the question.
I'll play a 6.5 pt teaser this time and take the home team PK and OV 40 instead of playing the dog at +13 just because the home team has excelled so much on DEF/ST this year and Detroit has shown the propensity to give up those types of points. Additionally, the home team should have the edge in the running game and the field may have some issues with the rain and all.
I've been doing some research on this game and have noticed a few interesting things.
Chicago has given up an avg of just 14 ppg which is skewed quite a bit by the 3 and 6 they gave up to Jax and StL. They gave up 21, 23 and 18 in the other 3 games. What's impressive is how they have dominated in their 4 wins where they won by margins of 20, 17, 16 and 38. Their lone loss was a horrendous game at Green Bay a week after the Packers lost at home to the 49ers on opening day....probably not a great spot for the Bears at that time.
Usually I'll play a 7 pt teaser on these night games. At first look I was tempted by the dog plus the points, but there are some things I don't like at all about that.
1. The Bears are only giving up 291 ypg of offense, just 65.8 ypg on the ground, and have allowed just 1 rushing TD all year... so we have the home team with a stellar rushing defense. That's a bad combination for the road team.
2. The Bears have been very good at creating turnovers with an amazing 13 INT's already to go with 4 fumble recoveries, and 5 of the INT's have been returned for TD's. That's 17 TO's and 5 TD's in 5 games and a +9 turnover ratio. The Lions have only forced 6 TO's and have given up 4 P/KO TD returns, 1 pick six and 1 fumble return for a TD. So the Bears have had a very large advantage on both defense and special teams so far.
4. The Bear defense has 18 sacks over 5 games, tied for 8th, and is only allowing a 28.8 success rate on 3rd down.
So it looks like Detroit will have it's hands full dealing with both the Bear defense and special teams. The opposition has been able to key on Calvin Johnson this year and as a result he has been held to a total of just 1 TD thus far. Compare this year with last and there is a stark difference. Through 5 games last year Stafford had 13 TD's and 4 INT's and Calvin Johnson had 9 TD's. This year (although Stafford has missed part of a game) Stafford has 4 TD's and 5 INT's and Calvin has just the 1 TD. And the Lions haven't fared well against the 2 better defenses they have faced (both on the road) as SF and Min held them to 19 and 13 pts, although Detroit did put up 23 in regulation vs Philly their last game out.
Chicago has averaged close to 30 ppg, but 35 pts have come from defense/special teams. Exclude those points and they are still avg'ing nearly 23ppg. Take away the stellar defense that Green Bay played when they held Chicago to 10pts and the Bears have scored 41, 23, 34 and 41.
The potential is there for some points to be put up, and it would help if Detroit continued to give them up and Chicago's DEF/ST continued their trend. Hester is one of the best after all, so I would seriously hesitate to try and predict an under, but it certainly isn't out of the question.
I'll play a 6.5 pt teaser this time and take the home team PK and OV 40 instead of playing the dog at +13 just because the home team has excelled so much on DEF/ST this year and Detroit has shown the propensity to give up those types of points. Additionally, the home team should have the edge in the running game and the field may have some issues with the rain and all.
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