RestEasy Week 8

[resteasy]

Thursday Night Football!

this is a tough one with the line moving from -7 to -5 now sitting steady at -5.5
I had written this next bit up earlier:

Hard to tell if it'll go over as first impression is yes but TB either goes over or scores 16-10.
Minny tends to trend in the 30's total score. First 2 games were 46 and 49, then @ washington was 64. All others in 30's...
Bucs have beaten the vikes 5 times last losing in 2001 @ minnesota.
bucs haven't lost by more than 7 this year.. yet

But what's the trend on thursday night games?
Week 1 doesn't count as there's no game before it so no short week effect.

weeks 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 the home team won.
Week 3 away team won
Week 4 home team won but didn't cover, 7 home team won and pushed
so, weeks 2, 5, 6 home team won and covered.

Thursday Night Football!

this is a tough one with the line moving from -7 to -5 now sitting steady at -5.5
I had written this next bit up earlier:

Hard to tell if it'll go over as first impression is yes but TB either goes over or scores 16-10.
Minny tends to trend in the 30's total score. First 2 games were 46 and 49, then @ washington was 64. All others in 30's...
Bucs have beaten the vikes 5 times last losing in 2001 @ minnesota.
bucs haven't lost by more than 7 this year.. yet

But what's the trend on thursday night games?
Week 1 doesn't count as there's no game before it so no short week effect.

weeks 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 the home team won.
Week 3 away team won
Week 4 home team won but didn't cover, 7 home team won and pushed
so, weeks 2, 5, 6 home team won and covered.

SU: 5-1 home team.........this is interesting
ATS home dog: 2-1..............this doesn't apply here
ATS road fav: 1-2................also doesn't apply here
ATS home fav / road dog: 1-1-1......this doesn't help
Over/Under: 1-5................tend to go under

carolina only home team loss
tenn/pitt only over

so the trend would say the play would be a tease of Minny to win and under as they're likely to win SU but it's still 50-50 for ATS.

I'll buc against that a little.

Teaser
TB +12, Under 50

Also have
World Series Game 2
Over 7 runs
H+R+E over 24

[dragon1952]

I think I like the UN50 tease. Maybe safer than my OV36.
That OV24 HRE's is the same as last night with Verlander pitching
and it went way over. I might try that too.

[resteasy]

Took over 7.5 3rd q

And yeah the baseball game is very under. Damn

[resteasy]

Sunday

Lots of hooks this week it seems

Redskins +5
That is a lot of points to give to RG3. They barely beat a somewhat mobile, high turnover Vick by 3 with Troy playing at least part of the game. Here they have the 3rd (possibly healing 2nd string) RB, backup center and are looking for 5 pts....

skins/pitt Over 44.5
yes, a hurricane is coming but not on sunday and it won't make landfall in pittsburgh. Washington's D is weak and pitt can be scored on (ask old man hasselbeck). This was 47 then was taken off now 44.5 Take the gift.

Atlanta +3.5 (buy the hook) -125
But Andy Reid doesn't lose off bye weeks! For 13 years Andy Reid has won! Ok, falcons aren't favored here. When that trend rides up to this year then the next step is to look at this year for the numbers. Eagles are not blowing people out so far.
Also rested 6-0 falcons with points? Take the points. Let's say they lose then undefeated team vs .500 team you think FG or they win. Again, take the points and possibility.


Miami +2
Jets are playing better than expected. We all wrote them off and they almost toppled the pats. Now they face a rested miami team after that overtime loss. These 2 teams are evenly matched as it is so I'll take the one with the rest that is also btw playing well.


Seattle +3.5 (hook bought) -140
Both seattle and Detroit have very good run defenses. Yes, lions run D only 1 td (seattle 2) allowed. Both are nearly identical in pass yds/g (211 v 212 det v seat) but seattle letting less TD's. I do see these teams pretty evenly matched. So why seattle?
To stop the lions you put pressure on stafford and cover calvin. They have very little run game. To stop seattle... Lynch can run and Wilson is an X factor that's getting better. SF game was on the WR's who had the ball bounce off their palms. Oh yeah, guess what, that was 10 days ago compared to 6 days.
Take the points, buy the hook.

NYG -2.5 (hook bought) -125
revenge game sure. This game means a tie breaker and the team that's behind has to fight harder. Heck, down 0-1 in the series according to recent history teams named Giants come back right? (sf)
Cowboys are hurt with Lee and Murray out and felix playing hurt. Giants haven been slowly playing better and getting Nicks and bennet healthier and have discovered a return game with Wilson and run game with either Bradshaw or Brown.

New England (in ol' england) -6.5
Historical info:
2007: Giants over dolphins 13-10.........total: 23.......Spread: Miami +10, o/U 47
2008: saints over chargers 37-32.........total: 69......Spread: NO +3, O/u 45.5
2009: Pats over Bucs 35-7..................total: 42......Spread: NE -15.5, o/U 44.5
2010: 9'ers ove Broncos 24-16.............total: 40......Spread: SF -2.5, o/U 41.5
2011: Bears over Bucs 24-18...............total: 42......Spread: Bears -1, o/U 44

So, the London games have seen only 1 over and 2 dogs cover in the first 2 years.

The pats are a hard team to figure this year as are the rams. One seems like it should be utterly dominant but it has only met that on occasion, the other seems like it should be easily smushed but has only met that on occasion.
Rams have covered the away spread (though this is a 'home game) against miami and detroit. 2 so-so teams. Could not cover against bears. In fact rams haven't covered against a 2012 playoff caliber team. Pats have mixed results as 3-3 as favorite.
I'll take the TD cover.

NE/Stl Under 47
rams don't score a lot and the pats this year have found a run game that I think with a lead they can lean on. 47 is a lot of points and on that field in england I think that's too many.


Teasers
atl +13, bears +2.5, pack -4.5 -120
NE+3, indy/tenn o37, bears +2.5 -120
atl +8.5, seattle +8.5, saints/den o49.5 +180
NE+3.5, under 57, skins +15 -120
miami +12, skins/pitt o34.5, NO +16 -120

[resteasy]

3-4 on plays so far with 1 to go
mentioned I bought the hook on seattle so they one up me... of course.

1-1-1 on teasers so far with 2 to go

[resteasy]

Saints +7 -125
saints with points? I'll take those points with the chance to win.

Over 55
this should be a high scoring game with the saints week secondary and the broncos showing they can be scored on as well.

teaser
saints +14, over 47.5

[resteasy]

**Saints Team Total over 24

saints yet to score under 24
Broncos kept teams under 24 only to Pitt and oakland.

[resteasy]

wow saints. really? you suck.
murdered my day.
and you don't take timeouts or try for any points at the end? oh yeah, a td pushes the O/U, bullshit!

straight plays
4-6

teasers
1-4-1 !!!! unreal there.

[resteasy]

I do believe the 9'ers win the game but I'm going to try to bank on az keeping it a little close. Let's middle this.

caught the line about 30 minutes ago at 7.5

10.5pt teaser
sf +3, az +18, over 27 -140


also
sf+3, chargers +2.5, kc/sd over 32.5 -140

[resteasy]

miss the first by 1 yd. yep, that about sums up my weekend.

other teaser alive and looks good.