Survival Pools

[wisconsin5473]

So, I snuck by with Chicago. The pool is down to 339. Ok, so the safest pick in my mind this week is Hou, but I would really like to save them for week 15. These next 2 weeks are the critical spots for me because I have most everything saved from Week 11 on. My best scenario for the best path is Wash over Zarol this week and Balt over Oak next week, but I am just afraid that Carol is going to hold on one of these weeks. So, I could do either Balt away over Clev, this week and Seat over the NYJ next week. Or Seat over Minn this week and Balt over Oak next week. San Diego is an option, but not really in my mind. I think they are horrible and KC could win this one. I think the 10 pt line is way out of line. I also don't understand why Balt is only -3 over Clev. I understand they are beat up, but off of a bye week and they have beaten Clev like 8 straight, plus Clev is off of a win.

So, my questions would be:
What do you think about Wash over Carol?
What about Balt over Clev?
Seattle over Minn?
Should I even consider San Diego?

[woodee12]

I think San Diego is a decent pick myself...KC really stinks.

I was stupid enough to play this over Oakland this week and they just cannot do anything. SD is bad but still should win by at least a TD. Off the game SD has left, I think this is the best shot at a win that they really need. They lose and Norv is gone for good! Which maybe the players want???

Balty would be my next choice off the bye and the beatdown they took before the bye.

[wisconsin5473]

Yeah Woodie, Norv should have been gone years ago. I bet KC as well and still think they have a chance to turn it around. Carolina, on the other hand, just keeps finding a way to lose. I really believe one if not both of these teams win this week. I think San Diego hasn't scored a TD in the last 6 quarters. Is that correct? Dragon, you're from SD aren't you? What is your take on this game? I have a couple of rules that I TRY to stick by in my survivor picks.
1. I try not to take a road team
2. I try not to use AFC West or NFC East matchups. These 2 divisions seem to have no rhyme or reason to who wins a given game.
3. I try not to take a division rematch and pick the team that won the first meeting, unless it is the top superior team in the division against the worst team.

So, San Diego falls into 2 of those categories, although I am still considering them. I broke rule 2 with San Diego last year and it cost me 36,000.

[The Guesser]

As a Chief fan, I wouldn't be hesitant to take SD. The Chiefs have flat out quit. Romeo Crennel is a clown that the players seem to ignore. The QB situation is in total shambles. I know SD isn't a bargain, but they do have a serviceable QB, and they aren't a pathetic, in the tank team. To add to it, KC has Pitt and their ex Coach Haley on deck, so if there is one game that KC players may try to get it together for, it would be that one, more than this one.

[dragon1952]

Out of the 4 you listed I would think Baltimore and Seattle are the safest bets. Washington can't stop anyone from scoring and Carolina probably should have beat the Bears last week...they looked a lot better against a very good defense. San Diego and KC are horrible and after what happened in KC last match-up I can see KC returning the favor. SD has no WR's, a shitty QB, a crappy OL, a horrible coach....hell, Gates isn't even relevant any more. The 3 teams they beat all played horrible games on those particular days....which I guess is very possible again. I obviously don't like them much.
Baltimore has beat Cleveland 8 straight times. Seattle is 3-0 at home beating the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots, and Minny is just 1-2 on the road. Not sure it makes much difference but the Vikes also have 4 straight divisional games in their next 4 games.