Survivor Pools

[wisconsin5473]

I may be jumping the gun because one of my picks is Pitt tonight over KC, but I wanted to post early to catch the traffic on the site tonight. The pool is down to 288. 188 on Pitt tonight.
So, looking ahead to next week, I have one of my picks on NE over Ind. The other pick is tricky. I could use Houst over Jack, but if I save Hous the path I have for this pick is very solid and could easily cash in. So, these are the games I am looking at: Buff over Mia, Wash over Phil and St Lou over the NYJ. I am probably narrowed to the last 2 unless someone has a great argument for Buff. I think Miami actually bounces back this week. So, the other 2 games. Phil and the NYJ are both in disarray. I think Phil a little more than NYJ. Phil has beaten Wash 5 of the last 6. Wash is off of a bye week and I am hoping Garçon could play. He practiced today for the first time in a month. The Jets play their second NFC team on the road in back to back weeks.
I would love anybody's and everybody's thoughts on these 2 games. If you have a thought please respond(even you RR). I really think if I get by this week saving my Hous pick that I have a great chance to cash in this pool. Thanks for your help in advance.

[dragon1952]

You are not jumping the gun. This is the lock of the year.
As for next week, Buffalo obviously is hard to trust. St Louis just put forth a supreme effort and probably should have won and now should be facing a desperate Jet team. Washington might be the lesser of 3 evils. That Philly team is really down right now and should be even more so after facing Dallas and losing Vick.

[oldluds]

I'm usually reluctant to add my two cents worth, hate to be responsible for someone else to lose money based on anything I might say. But because there hasn't been much discussion, I will jump in. I'm a fan of survivor pools. Small office one, just 12 of us, already over with, I was fortunate to win. Also on Fox sports, I am currently tied with 1000's at 10-0. Neither anything like what you are in, but I am definately interested allong with the others for next year.
If I might say, I am on board with a comment made a week or so earlier, saving a pick is great strategy, but what good is it if you are out, and never get to use it? It will be fantastic if you can use that iffy one vs the lock, and it comes thru. And for a pool of this size, to make the money, it appears that is probably the strategy you have to use.
All that being said, Houston would be my pick. But my thoughts on the two you are considering (wash/stl). I like StL a bit more, based on what was pointed out, Jets 2nd week in a row on road, I like StL O and D, good mix. Bradford's fav target back last wk,didn't miss a step, and Jackson showing some renewed life. Foles could have a nice game with a week to work with 1st team O. So that scares me a bit more.
I personally have Dallas or Denver this wk, switched twice already, currently sticking w/Dallas.
Hey Wisconsin, be sure not to take this commentary as anything golden. I'm enjoying your reviewson this contest, and wish you the best of luck. Go Get'em!

[wisconsin5473]

Thanks for your thoughts Oldluds. Don't worry I am taking all info in and then making my best possible decision. This pool is very different then other pools because you don't know for sure if you will have to make 2 picks in a week or not. In 2 previous years I had to make 2 picks from week 12-16 and got knocked out on my 2nd pick in wk16 both times, which was frustrating because if you make it to wk 17 you can layoff some money on the other side of your pick. As it sits now, we have to lose 48 in the next 2 weeks in order to make one pick for wk13. We then have to lose another 120 for one pick in wk14. I am hoping we have to choose 2 in that week because I have 2 strong plays saved which will give me a huge advantage.

[oldluds]

Very well explained, and understand now, you are speaking from experiance on making it DEEP into this contest last 2 years running. I enjoy your commentary on your decisions, and am a fan. Again, listen to your self, it is the best advice going You know what I mean, so bring it on home sir, I am living vicariously thru you on this one, even tho I don't really know you, still enjoying the process. GL

[The Guesser]

If you're saving Houston for weeks 15-17, be careful. They could have everything clinched in the AFC by then. Of the 2 games you mentioned, Rams are primed for a let down, Jets are in disarray, Redskins have a Thansgiving date @ Dallas, and Philly might rally around a backup QB in the 1st game with him. So I'd avoid both, but if I HAD to choose, I guess I'd choose SL, but I'd look elswhere if at all feasible.

[Krichinsky]

Have you used Denver? Not for this week, but as a
replacement for Houston in week 16.

We need to keep this thread as part of our posts next year,
because I gather that we all play Survivor pools and
the info exchange is great.

[Krichinsky]

Wisky, forgot to ask were you able to get any sleep Monday night?

Can't remember the Sunday a few years ago, but I survived the game where Calvin
Johnson's catch was ruled incomplete because he didn't hold it all of the way
into the turf.

[wisconsin5473]

Guesser, I know what you are saying about Hou, but they play Indy at home wk15 and then on the road wk17. I can't see them dropping 2 games to Indy in their last 3. I think they beat them at home and then rest their players. I think Indy will be a good play in wk 17 and probably be favored by a TD or more against Houst resting everybody.
Krichinsky, I wasn't really sweating that much on Monday. I knew KC would keep it close and possibly win, but since I have 2 picks left in the pool, if Pitt lost we would have been down to 100 left. I didnt really want to lose a pick, but didn't mind if I did.
So, anyone reading I could also possibly make an adjustment and use NOrl at Oak. So, throw your opinions in here on that one too. I might like them better than StLou or Wash.