Thursday Night Football - New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1)

[dragon1952]

current line,
Atlanta -3.5 / 55

Despite losing to New Orleans 3 weeks ago and possibly looking ahead to this next match-up the Falcons were very fortunate in winning their 2 in-between games albeit by the skin of their teeth. Actually, in their last 8 games they haven't been blowing anyone out except for the hapless Eagles. In the other 7 games where they've gone 6-1 the largest margin of victory was 7 pts and 4 of them were by 4 pts or less. That makes a 7 pt teaser taking the Saints +10.5 pretty attractive, especially when you consider how dominant New Orleans has been in this series. The Saints have gone 7-1 SU against the Falcons over the last 8 match-ups, including the last 4 in a row. As for the total in this series, only 1 of the last 10 match-ups have resulted in a total less than 49. The last 9 in a row have all been at least 49 pts but only 1 has been over the current line of 55. So you might make a case for teasing the total either way. I see our friend resteasy has chosen to go the 'under' rout going U62.5. Since then the line has come down an additional 1/2 pt and at many locations it has hit 54 and 54.5. I only have one account and at my book it's still at 55. I'm leaning O48 just because I hate sweating out an under when I see 34 pts ring up in the 1st H, and since that total has been eclipsed in 9 of the past 10 it appears to be a decent choice. I think at least one of these teams will reach 30 pts tonight and I can't believe the other won't hit 20 at least. In fact, I may go both U and O with the Saints +10.5 as I feel very strongly that the Saints should cover that easily if not get another SU win.
EDIT: the line just hit 54.5 so,
7-pt teaser
NO +10.5 / OV47.5

If the total comes down another 1/2 pt to 54 I will really be pissed.

[dragon1952]

Side note: In that Week 10 meeting, the Saints won 31-27. I'm not sure what the closing total was but in our NFL Weekly contest it was listed at 53.5. The Saints led 21-17 at HT and each team scored 10 in the 2nd H for a total of 58.
The Falcons could only manage 46 yds rushing but Ryan aired it out for over 400 yds and 3 TD's. The Saints rushed for 140+ yds and Brees had 298 passing and 3 TD's on just 21 completions.

[Dinger]

Take the Falcons -3.5.

[dragon1952]

Take the Falcons -3.5.

Are you putting money on Atl -3.5 ? Just curious. If I was going that way I would have to buy the 1/2 pt for sure.
Actually, If I had any balls I'd play the Saints on the ML.

[dragon1952]

Also taking
NO +4 (buying 1/2 pt) for 1/2 unit

NOTE: I chose not to play the teaser UN.

[hart attack]

I also like teasing the saints but going under instead of the obvious over. I can offer no good reason except its a hunch. Also on saints ML w/under parlay

[dragon1952]

I don't know WTF the Saints were thinking on that last drive. They went from 38 to 13 secs and then keep the ball in the middle of the field for no chance at the FG. Why not clock it at 35 secs? Unbelievably stupid.
Regardless, sticking with the Saints -1 for the 2nd H.

[hart attack]

and I thought I was running bad....how the F do saints not cover 2H with that domination? NFL is so unhandicappable

[dragon1952]

Bizarre game. One of the more important games of the season for both teams and Ryan and Brees both have one of their worst games in recent memory. Lots of dropped passes and inopportune penalties didn't help. Lance Moore drops a TD pass, Sproles TD is negated by a penalty, the bizarre end of the 1st H nets no points for the Saints and 5 Brees INT's. The Saints had 9 more FD's, 150 more yds of offense, 120 more KO/punt return yds, 7 1/2 min TOP advantage and spent all night inside Falcons territory and came away with 13 pts. Just a weird, weird game. BTW, nice hunch hart attack.

[chevy-37]

I played the second half -1/2, what a gift (I thought), Sanints plus 9.5 fro the game, Once again I say: Idiots