Happy Thanksgiving from North of the Border.
Last week, my picks went 4 wins, 0 loses… but (I know) what have I done lately. Because of the short week, I didn’t want to overlook any of these Thursday games.
I’m not quite ready to ignore (yet) the AFC/NFC Over trend, now 17 Overs to 3 Unders last 6 weeks and 39 – 13 for the year. This week we have 2 matchups, Oak/Dallas (Thurs) and Atlanta/Buffalo (in Toronto) to consider. I will also look into the divisional matchups. Again, I like divisional games because the teams play each other so frequently and trends and stats are usually with current personnel.
Just a few notes on Thursday’s games;
GB@Det: Total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 48.5. Too many conflicting trends here as GB has been Under 6 of last 8 and Detroit has been Over in 5 of their last 6 at home. Last 3 in series have gone Under the total (including a GB win of 22-9 in early October). For me a lean to the Under, may make a teaser bet but probably a no-play for me.
Oak/Dallas: Total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 47. Perhaps this move is a result of the AFC/NFC Over trend (now that everyone knows about it). Looking deeper, Under has cashed in 12 of last 18 Oakland games but Over in 4 of last 6 Road games. In last 2 years, Dallas home games have averaged just over 56 points/game and are playing Over in 6 of last 9. Dallas squeaked over the total for me last week on the road and I like them to score some home points to get over that 47.
Pitts/Balt: Opened at 40.5 and has risen slightly to 41. I really think Under is the play here as Pitt is Under 4 of last 6 road games and Balt is Under 5 in last 5 home games. At Pitt this year, the game had 35 points (19-16 Pitt) Also, Pitt has played Under 9 of last 10 vrs AFC and all 5 of last 5 in division. Beware, last 2 Balt home games, in series, have gone Over.
2 Thanksgiving Plays: Oak/Dal Over 47, Pitt/Balt Under 41 (I’ll probably use also in some teasers)
I don’t think either of these will make my Game of the Week pick.
Good Luck, may all your picks be winners.
Be back Sunday with more rambling.
Last week, my picks went 4 wins, 0 loses… but (I know) what have I done lately. Because of the short week, I didn’t want to overlook any of these Thursday games.
I’m not quite ready to ignore (yet) the AFC/NFC Over trend, now 17 Overs to 3 Unders last 6 weeks and 39 – 13 for the year. This week we have 2 matchups, Oak/Dallas (Thurs) and Atlanta/Buffalo (in Toronto) to consider. I will also look into the divisional matchups. Again, I like divisional games because the teams play each other so frequently and trends and stats are usually with current personnel.
Just a few notes on Thursday’s games;
GB@Det: Total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 48.5. Too many conflicting trends here as GB has been Under 6 of last 8 and Detroit has been Over in 5 of their last 6 at home. Last 3 in series have gone Under the total (including a GB win of 22-9 in early October). For me a lean to the Under, may make a teaser bet but probably a no-play for me.
Oak/Dallas: Total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 47. Perhaps this move is a result of the AFC/NFC Over trend (now that everyone knows about it). Looking deeper, Under has cashed in 12 of last 18 Oakland games but Over in 4 of last 6 Road games. In last 2 years, Dallas home games have averaged just over 56 points/game and are playing Over in 6 of last 9. Dallas squeaked over the total for me last week on the road and I like them to score some home points to get over that 47.
Pitts/Balt: Opened at 40.5 and has risen slightly to 41. I really think Under is the play here as Pitt is Under 4 of last 6 road games and Balt is Under 5 in last 5 home games. At Pitt this year, the game had 35 points (19-16 Pitt) Also, Pitt has played Under 9 of last 10 vrs AFC and all 5 of last 5 in division. Beware, last 2 Balt home games, in series, have gone Over.
2 Thanksgiving Plays: Oak/Dal Over 47, Pitt/Balt Under 41 (I’ll probably use also in some teasers)
I don’t think either of these will make my Game of the Week pick.
Good Luck, may all your picks be winners.
Be back Sunday with more rambling.
Comment