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  • Kentucky Derby

    Here is my superfecta just for fun.

    Win- 8,10
    Place-6,8,10,18,19
    Show- 6,8,10,18,19
    4th- 6,8,10,18,19

    I was going to go down to B'ham and wager on it but just didn't feel up to trip.

    GL

  • #2
    Well close but no cigar!

    I really liked Firing Line to win with Gary Stevens aboard. Great race though!

    Comment


    • #3
      I though of something immediately after the race was over. Since the winners owner also owns Dortmund, will he race him in the Preakness? Well that has been answered because he is in the lineup. Will he tell the jockey on Dortmund that you can come in second but don't pass AP? I don't know if Dortmund can beat Pharoah but there is a chance of that happening. If Materiality gets a better post position, he should break better and is a speed horse which will up the pace of the race quite a bit.

      Thoughts anyone......

      Comment


      • #4
        Same trainer, but different owners. But.....Dortmund set the pace up
        perfectly for American Pharaoh. It almost looked just like how a team would work
        in NASCAR. At the 3/8 pole, just as they started the turn, I yelled out that
        AP was going to win. At that point he was 3rd/4th, but just kicking into gear.

        We may never know how it works, but there had to be some discussion and most
        likely $ome arrangements made before the race.

        Comment


        • #5
          You are correct Kman...Same trainer not owner.. That makes it not near as much of a conflict of interest. Should be a great race this weekend. You have to like the same three if the post positions are good. You may add Carpe Diem in the mix and I think Materiality will break this time if the PP is good, but I don't like him to win. I like AP to winwith Dortmund, Firing Line, and Stanford close behind. I think Stanford is my dark horse in this race. Post positions could change that but this is who I like right now.

          GL

          Comment


          • #6
            Kman,

            Now that we have gotten down to an eight horse field what do you think? AP with the number one post and Dortmund with the number two post.

            Comment


            • #7
              Going over some things tonight...Hope to have a exotic to play.

              I hit a exacta box in the derby and have a wager on YES for a triple crown winner. Probably will let that ride and make a small bet for fun.

              Looking at the 6 or 7 horse myself as good longer shots. Am Phar got the rail so that opens it up a bit.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by woodee12 View Post
                Going over some things tonight...Hope to have a exotic to play.

                I hit a exacta box in the derby and have a wager on YES for a triple crown winner. Probably will let that ride and make a small bet for fun.

                Looking at the 6 or 7 horse myself as good longer shots. Am Phar got the rail so that opens it up a bit.
                Hmmmm-got me thinking

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think Dortmund will come out and stay well back in the field.
                  I don't think Firing Line is a horse that wants to win, so is there any other horse
                  that can beat AP?
                  Lucas has a good record here and he used his influence to put Mr. Z in, but I've grown
                  leery of any trainer's opinion on their horses.

                  AP with Dortmund closing for second.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Mr z is probably my 2nd or 3rd choice.

                    Like the 2 favs and z for now. Researching a little more.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The WSJ is a great resource for good capping info, believe it or not.
                      They devote one page to sports and have some information you won't find anywhere else.
                      As an example, they have an annual page breaking down each teams picks in the NFL draft.
                      They look at trends in team's historical strategy and how it really doesn't change. As an
                      example, the Atlanta Falcons tend to draft multiple players for the same position. Baltimore
                      favors picks from non-major conferences, etc.

                      I mention all of the above because they nailed the Derby and today they, writer Jim Chairusmi,
                      (what a great name for a sportswriter) broke down distance traveled by American Pharaoh, the
                      other horses in this years Derby and the winners of the Derby over the last five years.
                      With a tracking device put in the horses saddle towel, the distance traveled by AP was 6,730 feet.
                      Firing Line ran 6,649 feet and Dortmund (inside post) traveled 6,654 feet.

                      The last two Derby winners to run over 6,700 feet Orb in 2013 and Animal Kingdom 2011 did not
                      win the Preakness. Also, AP's final quarter-mile time was the slowest of the last five winners.



                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Krichinsky View Post
                        I think Dortmund will come out and stay well back in the field.
                        I don't think Firing Line is a horse that wants to win, so is there any other horse
                        that can beat AP?
                        Lucas has a good record here and he used his influence to put Mr. Z in, but I've grown
                        leery of any trainer's opinion on their horses.

                        AP with Dortmund closing for second.
                        I agree...I don't have the same feeling I did about Firing Line as I did in the Derby...

                        I just don't see how AP loses.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Playing a 2-3-4 exacta box. Fading the fav. Don't like that 1 position.
                          Dortmund wins.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by woodee12 View Post
                            Playing a 2-3-4 exacta box. Fading the fav. Don't like that 1 position.
                            Dortmund wins.

                            That is probably the only way to make any money on this race but I just can't do it.

                            My superfecta:

                            Going to single the 1 on top.

                            1
                            2358
                            2358
                            2358


                            GL

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              DAMN 7 HORSE...LOL

                              I had a long shot that came through but couldn't pull it out.

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