Good luck to you guys in the Super Bowl, nomatter which way you go....I probally won't even watch her after the Packers bowed out...I still haven't gotten over that hangover yet! As for a play in the Super Bowl, I've always loved taking the over in the second quarter...any jitters are gone by then and it usually has a good chance of going over. Oh well, winter is great time to study and make a game plan for the nest football season...I saw some very interesting trends in the past season that I hope are gold next fall.

Where is the money going so far?

I saw 60-40 on the Pats at one book, but then I heard someone on ESPN say it is 5-1 money on the Giants.

What have you guys heard?

I am still liking the Pats myself and hoping the line drops more...Think the Public is loving the doig this year? But wanted to see you guys' opinion too.

There's a difference between where the "money" is going and where the "bets" are going. Remember, all of those sites and books that show betting percentages are showing number of bets. Not how much money has been bet.

I wouldn't use the public angle on a game like the Super Bowl. The public has a winning record in Super Bowls.......

Also keep in mind that the number didn't move from 14 to where it is now because the public all lined up and hammered the Giants......the betting was fast and furious when this game opened and it was ALL Giants action and mostly sharps.

I was sitting there when the game opened trying to grab +14.........it reminded me of that game they have at carnivals where there's a bunch of holes and a weasel pops his head out of a different hole each time and you're suppossed to hit the weasel on the head when he pops out.......only you keep missing......that's what it was like trying to get +14.

At any rate, while i like the Giants at +14, only one result would shock me Sunday....a Giant win by 20 or more. No other result would suprise me at all. Giants straight up, Pats by 3, Pats by 30.........I could see any of those results.

I have a feeling the game will have some drama though......

Contrary to some of you, the 'side number' looks pretty accurate to me ...

e.g. if it's -14.5 or more, I'm all over the G-men, going for their 11th consecutive cover on the road; if it's -12 or lower, anytime prior to kick-off, I'm gonna have to hit the Pats, hard; and, if it stays between -12.5 and -14, that's a very dicey call, either way, from where I'm perched, right now ... i.e. in the catbird's seat, +27.7 units on the NFL season to-date.

How have the Giants been able to mask their apparent weaknesses in the Defensive Secondary, against each of the Bays, in their playoff victories?

IMO, the 'uncomplicated' answer is ... their Front 7, right now, is as good (read, as ... super athletic, physical and fierce) as any group in the league, today, anchored by Strahan and propelled by young'ns Umenyiora, Tuck & Torbor (etc.) ... as is their Running Game with the tandem backs combo, Bradshaw (speed) & Jacobs (power).

Like Jeff says, I can see several different scenarios unfolding in this game ... but, the one which gives me the most pause to tread lightly in assessing this match-up, right now, is the still uncertainty involved with that protective boot Tom Brady was wearing (unexpectedly?) last week, and the effect his injury has had on the amount of reps he's taken, since then, with his usual 'Gang of Marauders on Offense' (i.e. re: the cohesiveness of their 'spread' & 'hurry-up' passing attack vs the Giants pass rush and their situational subs).

IMO, if Tom Brady is completely healthy, and in his customary rhythm with Moss, Welker, Faulk & Co., I don't see New England scoring less than 35 pts in this game ... which should be enough to win and get the cover, if the number stays where it's at today (-12.5) and the Giants' Special Teams don't return any kicks for TDs ...

but, if his timing is thrown off, by his inactivity since the Chargers' game, even just a little bit, then there's every possibility for the G-Men's Front 7 to hold down the fort again, like they did against the respective Bays ...

in which case ...

it will then fall, once more, at the feet of the Pats' veteran Defensive Unit, led by Bruschi, Wilfork, Seymour, Harrison and (my 2nd favourite defensive player in NFL history, Mr. Junior) 'Old Man' Seau ... to play the type of "tough, physical, smash-mouth" football, they are capable of, in the Red Zone, as though this was, in fact, the FINAL GAME of their pro careers! .... hmmmmmm???

... and, thereby, avoid the (cruel?) hand-of-fate which befell the St. Louis Rams, Feb 3, 2002 (6 years ago, to the day) when, as very healthy 14-pt favorites, they succumbed to an upstart team, led by an inexperienced QB, who completed 16 of 27 passes that day - for 145 yards with 1 TD - and marched his team down the field for the game winning score, while being named Super Bowl MVP.

Which way will things play out this Sunday?

IMO, this group of Patriots will only go as far as Tom Brady's health & Junior Seau's heart can take them.

In the end, will it be enough?

Boone is right ... only (Father) time can truly tell ... but, right now, it seems to me as though Destiny is calling out their names, Here & Now.

19-0.

Yep, we can see this playing out many ways. I guess that means lay off of it and play some props!

One thing I wouldn't put any stock in is the Giants consecutive road victories. This is the Super Bowl. Both teams are on the road. The Giants aren't gettng any extra points because they are on the road.

Because the Giants have won 9 or 10 in a row on the road is not something I would give any wieght to in this game and I don't understand why so many people take such great comfort in it.

Remember, one of those road wins was in Giants Stadium against the Jets. And another was in London where the home team Dolphins really didn't have much of a home field advantage and had to travel long distance to host that game. So there are two asterisks on that record for the Giants.

The thought that is haunting me right now is S.D. lost by 12 and Brady threw 3 picks, If he doesnt they prob win by 19 or more. Would you say S.D is about the same talent level as NY?

sorry i meant 9 but its still the same question.

It all depends on Uncle Bill. If he wants to cover he will that S.D. game when they were at the 20 they could have scored if they wanted to like the first of the year. They take a knee and he was just smilin on the sidelines. Who is he on this game?

Did you just ask a question and then answer it yourself?

Anyway, the one stat that is making me crazy is that the other 3 super bowls the patriots were in was only won by 3 points (and of course the 3 point win in week 17). And now the public is thinking they are 12 point favorites? And if given the opportunity to blow out NY would Belichick do it? From the press conferences it appears he respects NY and Coughlin.

Some stats and analysis I came across at Pro Football Weekly website.
"The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. They have been favored by double digits in nine of those games, covering only twice.... Meanwhile, the Giants have covered five straight, four times when getting points. The Giants are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, with their only losses to the Cowboys...
When the teams last met, the Giants had a 12-point third-quarter lead on New England. But the Patriots overpowered the Giants in the final 1½ quarters, scoring three touchdowns and leading by as many as 10 points late in the fourth before the Giants added their final touchdown. The Giants shut down the run, limiting New England to 44 yards on 26 carries, but they couldn’t consistently pressure Patriots QB Tom Brady. His favorite targets, WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker, combined for 17 catches and 222 yards as Brady time and again delivered the ball on time and on target."

So, do the Giants pressure the QB any better this time? They didn't do it well last time but the offense was able to match blow for blow. Is Brady really gimpy or has that been a ploy? I don't trust that Belichick dude at all. Were the Pats just toying with everyone down the stretch and saving up for this one game? They have only covered twice in the past 10 games now they're supposed to come out and blow the Giants away? The Pats looked like crap against the Chargers and if the Chargers had been 100% healthy they probably would have won.
Somehow I just think the defenses really step up and we're in for a rock'em sock'em type game. Now watch them score 80 combined

Gaints draw first blood with a FG. (NYG 3-0)

NE strikes back with two TD's.

Half time: 14-3.

Brady INT helps NYG score TD in second half. (NE 14-10)


Brady / Moss could have a big day though.
NE (21-10)

NYG FG (21-13)

NE FG (24-13)

I think a NY Giants special teams play will help them cover the spread.
Big punt return...either TD or great field position.

I think the Giants will score a late TD in 4th Qtr to cover the spread.

NE recovers on-side kick...game over.

Again 24-20 New England...under.

For what its worth the free pick by Brandon Lang is the overs.

This is too funny.....HT score 7-3......2nd half over/under 24! That's a total of 34!!! Great middle chance for someone who took the under 55.

2nd half line NE-7......people jumping on the Giants +7 at sports.com sitting at NYG +7 -125!!! I got NYG +12...I know I'm going to get killed in the 2nd half Oh well...Tom Petty was awesome!!!

Guess I wasn't crazy after all

just bet giants and over parlay, congrats to all that had the g men or unders.

I would bet $500 and the Giants +13 or 14
$100 Giants and the under

Post Season: 8-3


Hopefully some of you took the advice.

Las Vegas was way off on the spread.

That was a crazy game and nice call for you guys who nailed it. I made a play on the UNDER 28 in the first half to salvage some cash with my play on the Pats. Went 1-2 on my prop plays as Boss only caught 1 pass and welker did not score. The first score was a FG so that was a winner. I only played a small amount on all those for fun mostly and I am glad I did not go crazy b/c I thought that NE would smash them. I think I lost goign against the Giants the all thoughout the Playoff except the first game vs. the Bucs, so might as well end it that way.

It was a fun football season!

To play so well, for so long, and come oh-so-close to achieving 'pro sport immortality', as a team ...

To finish just '1 play short' of 19-0 ...

Yes, indeed ... sometimes, the hand-of-fate can be 'cruel' (and heart-breaking).

Congratulations to the New England Patriots, for their 'Season to Remember' ... and the New York Giants, for their 'Will to Persevere and Win'.

An absolutely terrific season of professional football!

I have many more random comments in my column, but I thought comment pretty much sums up the greatest upset ever:

Why was I so anti-Giants? The teams on an off year with the loss of Tiki Barber (although I've always liked Jacobs). They have the locker room chemistry of bleach and chlorine. The veterans knew this wouldn't be a superbowl year and didn't put the work in. They got blown out by 80 points to start the season, although that did get better quickly as noted here. Late in the season, they can't even run an offensive play with Manning and his receivers going to the same spot. Coughlin's job is day-to-day, and most of the players probably can't wait for him to go. Manning can't play in bad weather. England mud? Washington in that windstorm? 30% passes completed, none for any yards. What'll happen when they play in Green Bay in 10 degrees? The Redskins crush them late in the season, making them 3rd in their own division. They get crushed by nearly every playoff team they play during the season. Sure, they surprise a tight Patriots team and play great in the 17th game, but the following week will anyone be surprised if they get smashed by the Bucs and forgotten? Manning is too inconsistent to play mistake free ball for 5 straight games. Mannings can't win in the playoffs anyway. (See better armed brother). Shockey is gone, Plaxico gets worse every week, and Amani Toomer ain't getting younger. What, exactly, makes you think the Giants are winning the Superbowl again?