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Kansas State/CAL Writeup

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  • Kansas State/CAL Writeup

    Kansas State has 12 starters returning (7 offense and 5 defense) from the team that outscored opponents 44.8 to 11.8 on average per game last season, and while this isn't a lot for most teams, with the way Snyder is reliant on Juco transfers, this is actually quite a few for the 'Cats. California benefitted last year by returning 15 starters on their team and actually caused some noise by beating some quality teams during the season. On that note, they only have 7 or 8 returning starters this year and nobody should expect any similar success from them again.

    Now Kansas State has quite a few angles and trends in their favor, remember that most of their out of conference games have been against cream-puffs. They are 23-5 (82%) ATS vs. out of conference foes, 7-1-1 (88 %) ATS in openers that have lines, and are 33-7 (83%) when favored by more than 20. Favs of more than 28 points are 30-19 (60%) in opening games, so if this creeps above this #, take note.

    That said, Cal is 3-0 ATS when getting more than 10 under HC Jeff Tedford, and are 11-2 (85%) ATS when getting more than 10 as road puppies. They are a poor 3-6 (33%) ATS in season openers, but did roll 70-22 last year in their first game. Tedford didn't win the Pac 10 Coach of the Year award by accident, and should have his team moving in the right direction. One trend in Cal's favor that applies here: California has a 5-1 SU and ATS record in their last 6 away games versus the Big 12.

    The big thing here is the Cal "D" returns only 2 starters, and they aren't very big up front. Kansas State will probably dominate the line of scrimmage when they have the ball, and will put up 40+ with ease. The big question will be how often the Bears get in the EZ, and with the big # posted, a couple of TDs will probably open the back door for them. Tedford will be breaking in a new QB and will probably have to allow him to take some lumps, but I see him allowing junior Reggie Robertson to continue to keep attacking, but this is a tough team to do so against.

    Snyder scheduled this game to beef up his BCS chances, and as usual, don't expect him to hold much back. While a win is a win vs. a PAC 10 school, the Cats always love to "scratch" out lop-sided wins. Tough to call with the big number, as a back-door is a definite possibility, but with Snyder's past in running it up and the inexperience all over the field for California, coupled with the smallish defensive front of the Bears, I see Kansas State trying to keep the alumni happy in this one. Still.....we pass.
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