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View from the Window Perch (III)

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  • View from the Window Perch (III)

    Jamal Lewis, Jamal Lewis, Jamal Lewis. In discussing last week, I don’t think I can write about Jamal Lewis enough!! What an absolutely amazing story. He called it! Ironically, I think this is the most underplayed story in the media in years. I’ve been hearing nothing more than the Shanahan lied and all this junk about the Cowboys amazing win – not nearly enough about Jamal Lewis!! Where do you begin? First he calls out Cleveland, who was already going to stack against the run. The dude has barely popped over 100 yards, although he did slap the Browns for a buck-87 and a buck last season. There must be SOMETHING about Cleveland’s style of run defense that suits this guy. If he had called “200 yards”, I’d have been amazed. He had 6 TDs in his previous 2 healthy seasons – he has 3 already. Why didn’t Cleveland put 8 men in the box? They did! The funny thing is that in both long run replays I saw, it looked like he nearly fell down both times. If he doesn’t keep his feet, this doesn’t even happen. The big question is: Is he just the next Duce Staley or has he developed into someone special? One thing you can bank on: no Browns playoffs this year. That’s not an over-reaction, that’s a fact. All those draft picks wasted on the defensive line, what a shame.

    Thank-god for bye weeks!! Everyone talks about adding games to the season and reducing the preseason games, but I’d be happy if they just padded the schedule with a couple more weeks and gave another round of byes to everyone. 256 games are plenty but it’d be real nice for us DirecTV viewers if they weren’t all at the same time (hey – what is football if not for television revenue?) And how about a FULL hour between the early and late games given that 1/3rd of the early games runover every week? Anyone out there listening? To the mailbag...

    Q: Why should we listen to you Cat?

    Maybe because I finished Sunday in the top 10 at FSM again. Maybe because I went 8-of-10 over the weekend?

    Q: So what, it was an easy week! The favorites won 11 of the 16 games!

    Except that I consider myself a bit of a contrarion, so a favorite dominated week is certainly not my ideal. I selected 3 of the 5 dogs that won and 2 of those were “best bets”! Moreover, I turned in a 5,000 word column about the NFL before I did it.

    Q: Still not impressed.

    I also went 9-of-10 in week 2 last season. In my two years at FSM, I am a documented 17-of-20 on the 2nd week of football against the number. 85%

    Q: Okay, I’m impressed. Can you keep it up? What was the hardest part of acing the line?

    Last year I continued with another 3-0 best bets. Yeah, I think I’ll keep this up at least a while longer before the lines sharpen up. The hardest part was selecting the best bets this week. I really thought I had a strong lineup and wanted to put them all as best bets. I didn’t expect to sweep the board so I was really sweating over value on some of my picks that I didn’t think was high enough.

    Q: Not enough value?

    Yes, like I didn’t think there was tremendous value in the Dolphins –3 on the road. I felt the Seahawks –4.5 was brutally high and it is a good thing I never found out Koren Robinson was benched for tardiness. Carolina +9 was a little lower than I’d like too.

    Q: How do you prepare for the week?

    Oh man, I look high and low for the edge. I start with NFL matchup, where I get my weekly dose of “Steve McNair is the NFL’s best quarterback” that has been continued unabated from last year. This reminds me I know nothing about football. I’m then like all over TLC and hearing Lavar Arrington suddenly talk about how great the Bills are going to be – he just says this out of nowhere – and this is before the Bills hired a new Lawyer to represent them in the AFC East. I’m thinking Arrington can paint his brother’s room like nobody and if he says the Bills are bank, they are bank. I go over to the shopping channel and the NFL dude is explaining how Dungy has remade over the Indy defense, and I know he isn’t saying this just to hawk the Indy hat in his hand. And then there is good old Rush. My son wakes me up and he’s like “Dad dad – FOOTBALL” and turns on the pregame stuff I try not to watch. (Keep in mind my son is 2.) There is Rush rambling better than even I can and he seems to switch from team to team in midsentence. The studio dudes are outright snickering in the background, but Rush has a masterful way of simplifying football to a level I can understand equal to his ability to simplify politics. I immediately know that Fielder can’t play in the NFL, Warner is done, the Bucs will win another Superbowl, and more great stuff that is just so damn original and I just can’t write it down fast enough. Too bad I already had my bets in because listening to him, I would have flipped most of my picks.

    Q: What lame excuse do you have for losing 2 games?

    I did lose to two NFL records, that being Jamal Lewis and the Dallas kicker. I felt the Browns were a hell of a deal. Playoff team from last year with few changes (maybe short a couple linebackers, nothing important) against a rookie QB and a do-nothing RB. Easy win, haha.

    Q: What about the Carolina and Dallas upsets?

    If you’ve been reading this column, the Panthers made me look real real smart. I expect the Giants to come back on the Cowboys – even down 15. The strange thing is that a few years ago, I never recall a playoff-caliber team coming back just to blow it on a fluke special teams plays. Those kinds of upsets never ever ever seem to come through. So it was pretty strange to see both happen in the same week. The Giants secondary got burned again, which isn’t good. If I played the underdog money line, I’d be a happy man. It was also surprising to see both the Giants and Steelers jump out to quick defensive TDs just to lose both ball games.

    Q: What about teasers?

    They are making me a happy man too, although it doesn’t look like teasers would have helped you in many games this week. A vast majority of them were decided by a full 10 points beyond the Vegas line.

    Q: So what’s the high-level view this week?

    We know the favorites are rolling, but this is largely due to the failure by the home dog segment. They got rolled rather badly for 0-4, in addition to the one home dog loss from week 1. This weeks group of home dogs doesn’t look a great deal more promising, either. With the home favorites doing rather well in week 1, its not surprising that most of these teams were sent on the road in week 2 and did rather well. There will be some true playoff teams in this group, for certain. Green Bay got to stay home a second week for homecoming, although the experience of back-to-back home games wasn’t as pleasant in Philadelphia. The small home favorites group has also covered a surprising 5 of 7 so far! These are teams laying less than 3 points to teams that are considered slightly better.

    Q: Anything else surprise you?

    Yeah, I got snuckered by the injury report for a 2nd straight week. One of the games I avoided from the nasty AFC south was Colts/Titans. I was bank for the Colts but looking at their injury report, they must have had every member of the secondary listed. Given the Titans recent string of victories since they let McNair air it out last season, this was a pretty scary thought. But instead, McNair played dink-and-dunk while the Colts ran rapshod and exposed the Titans secondary. The real injuries seemed to be the defense line going out during the game and McNair not being able to get the ball further than 5 yards. Titans are much better at home.

    Q: What’s the story on McNabb and the Eagles? Are they done?

    Losing two home games is brutal. You need to win your home teams. That being said, those two games were against the two superbowl champions of the past two years! The ESPN NFL Live guys tore into McNabb this week for not being able to hit his hot reads on the blitz and being afraid to wing it down the field. Both comments were justified early in the Patriots game. McNabb isn’t playing well and you begin to wonder if he gets stuck at the NFC game because he is no more a Superbowl QB than Kordell or Culpepper. To put some perspective, they haven’t played a division opponent yet and 5-1 inside the division is not out of the question. Winning the division is still key for the Eagles to advance in the NFL playoffs.

    Q: Speaking of the NFC East, how about the Skins/Giants showdown this week?

    The linemakers are a little bit whacked for laying 2.5 on the Skins but a couple points here or there isn’t always key. Like any wagerer, I want to stay on the side of value but – look at this past week – the line frequently doesn’t play into games. Having a 2% edge doesn’t mean much when you lose. I hit a stretch of mediocrity last year and overemphasis of perceived line value (that probably wasn’t even there) was probably a factor. But back to the point, these two teams have very good sets of receivers and our fine feathered friends should be flying, if you get my point. The value is squarely in the Giants corner although that is not a prediction on my part. Don’t expect a hangover or lack of preparation from the Giants in this divisional matchup either.

    Q: And those Cowboys?

    Why is everything in New York such a big news story? Yeah, so the Cowboys won, big deal. Had they held on to that blowout lead, I’d have been impressed. But as it is, I think they played their best game and hung on and that’ll only happen about 5 more times this year. I’ll mention the Bears right now and the fact that they played a great primetime game too, had the ball LITERALLY bounce there way several times, and still came up short vs. the number. The Bears may perhaps smoke the Bengals and Cardinals of the NFL world, but I think they will be a player or two short this season.

    Q: Is Bulger the answer?

    Bulger has played Oakland and Seattle – when these teams were slumping – followed by Arizona, San Diego, Chicago and Arizona again for 2002. He played a very questionable 49ers secondary this weekend at home. You tell me where Bulger has proven he is the answer for a 1-8 road team going to Seattle? Kurt Warner has gotten road games at Denver, Tampa Bay, Washington, Philadelphia, and New York. Last year, he really only had bad games in Tampa and Philadelphia – the NFC finalists – where he was sacked 13 times in those two games. I understand the situation of having to start Bulger, but I don’t think he’s the answer unless he helps the overconfident Martz find Faulk a few more times than usual. This isn’t over yet!

    I had a feeling Vegas would only lay 3 on the Rams even though that isn’t my line. The funny thing about that one is they are shading it heavy for Seattle but won’t move it to 3.5. What does that mean? They are scared that if they go to 3.5, bettors will load up on the Rams. To me, this is a pretty good reason to take the Rams anyway. Will there be fallout from the sudden benching of Koren Robinson? Is Darrell Jackson now the go-to guy, and who will Aeneas cover? Williams looked damn good sprinting down the field to throw a block on a turnover and I’d say he has healed pretty well.

    Q: What do you see this week?

    I like to start the week by making the lines for all the games and then comparing them to the real lines. I can do this in a matter of minutes and come within a couple points of all the lines. The Broncos line is high. The SF line is high, although this is somewhat understandable. Tampa Bay hasn’t lost their edge yet. Can you throw enough points on Arizona? The seas will be green for that game, which makes for a difficult HF handicapping number. The only good start Arizona ever had that I can think of was last year – and they stayed away from Sun Devil during September. The Colts line looks a bit low. I think the Patriots should be at least a full 7 on the Jets. I’m surprised Bills/Dolphins is holding on the 3 so far. San Diego is a tough sell at 1, although the line is correct.

    The Broncos are too high as a 5.5 point advantage although the value probably isn’t that significant – unless you are thinking teaser. But why would you want to float a teaser on blowout night? All I know is that the Montana and Elway references will be overflowing on Monday Night should Plummer find himself behind by less than 7 late in the game. Jake Plummer, behind going into the 4th quarter?!? No....that would be like Parcells winning his first game as a Cowboy in New York! You might expect Clinton Portis night, but do you really believe Plummer has a bad arm? Maybe Shanahan is lying about lying? Could this all be an in-depth Oliver Stone-type setup for the hated Raiders? Does Shanny want to show off his new QB toy? (oh yeah...)

    Finally, beware of those dogs! The favorites are red hot and those dogs will come barking sooner or later. Maybe not this week, maybe not next week, but like a pent-up dam they will burst through eventually.

    And that concludes...THE VIEW FROM THE CAT
    Last edited by TheBlackCat; 09-18-2003, 03:08 AM.
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