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Monday MLB preview and pick

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  • Monday MLB preview and pick

    3.10pm ET
    Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

    We'll recommend a play Over the total runs today in the Kansas City Royals home opener against the Chicago White Sox.

    58% of the Royals home games since 1997 have gone Over the total including last season when the 95-57 mark was an amazing 62.5% record for the Over.

    Furthermore, last season the Over hit at 64.5% in Royals home games when the total was set at 9 or 9.5 and at 76.9% when they were installed favorite's of -100 to -125.

    The Royals were a surprise success story last season and only three teams in the American League scored more runs. With the addition of bats Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago they should be able to continue their impressive offensive production this season.

    Chicago should have no problems scoring runs today at Kauffman Stadium...in their last seven games at KC they have scored 5, 19, 11, 3, 8, 15 and 9 runs respectively which is a fantastic average of 10 runs per game.

    Today's starters posted fairly similar numbers last season and were solid rather than spectacular....Mark Buerhle was 14-14 with a 4.09 ERA and his team's O/U record when he started was 18-16. Brian Anderson was 14-11 with a 3.78 ERA and the Royals were 18-12 O/U in his starts. We're quite happy to go with Overs in the opening few days of the MLB season as hitters tend to be a lot closer to their best than pitchers in their first outing.

    While we don't place too much emphasis on spring training it is still worth noting these teams recent performances. The Royals final five preseason match-ups saw an average of 12.6 total runs per game. Meantime the Chicago White Sox last five preseason games had an average of 15.8 runs scored.

    Overall these teams have met 50 times since 1997 and the Over has cashed in 33 of these meetings which is a 66% winning rate...their ten contests in Kansas City last season averaged a whopping 12.9 runs.

    We'll recommend the Over today with confidence.

    Recommended Play: Over 9.5 -125
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