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NCAA Football - Week 1 - Final Report
NCAA Football - Week 1 Final Report - 08/27/04
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 10pm Pacific on Sunday, August 29th.
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No official RAS play this week.
Due to abbreviated schedule, there will be no live half-time service this week.
One early look this week:
The line movement on this total was amazing on Tuesday as only one major offshore sportsbook posted it with an opening total of 59.5 at 6:45am Pacific. The line was at 50 on Wednesday morning as a few more books put out numbers. It has finally settled now at 48.5, right around where I expected it to be in my initial Sunday night write-up. The play will be graded at 48 and it remains an "early look" which is recommended as a 1/2 UNIT play. I have learned my lesson. In the future, I will never quote a line unless it is available at multiple sportsbooks. However, as a general rule I encourage everyone to place wagers at the first available line they can find.
EARLY LOOK - USC vs Virginia Tech (UNDER 48.5) - 4:45pm - Saturday - 8/28/04 - Landover, MD
Many factors suggest this will be a low scoring game. USC only averaged 310.5 yards of offense (137.5 less than season average) in their first two games of last season. This year they will start the season with just two returning full time starters on offense unless as it is now official that star WR Mike Williams (ineligible) will miss the season. USC has four new offensive line starters (the lone returning starter has been slowed by injury) who have good size and potential but as is often the case with inexperienced linemen they will be better run blockers than pass protectors in the early going. Practice reports have confirmed this to be the case. This means USC will probably be handing the ball off a lot to their impressive tailback duo of LenDale White and Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the strength of the Virginia Tech defense is their front seven which reportedly has looked strong all spring, summer, and fall. With it being the season opener against the #1 ranked team in the country, they will be fired up and ready to go. Fueled by what is sure to be a partisan crowd, the Hokie defense should at least be able to make USC work for yards on the ground. When USC opts to pass, Tech should be able to apply decent QB pressure on Leinart who at 6-5, 220 is not very mobile.
Many teams are going to struggle against USC's defense this year, head coach Carroll calls it the most experienced returning unit in his tenure. The Hokies will be trying to fill holes at RB, WR, and center where they lost three of the school's all time greats, all of which are in the NFL now. Two projected skill position starters RB Humes (ankle, upgraded to expected to start) and WR Clifton (wrist, upgraded to expected to start) have been slowed by injuries in fall practice. I believe Virginia Tech knows they will not be able to run successfully on USC. Scrimmage reports suggest they will try to implement a short passing game with lots of QB rollouts. This in an attempt to neutralize the imposing Trojan defensive line. However, Tech lacks a playmaking receiver and the USC defense features great team speed as well as one of the top LB groups in the country. USC is very adept at limiting yards after catch. Without the help of a turnover or big special teams play, I do not expect Virginia Tech to score any meaningful amount of points.
As a general rule, defenses are ahead of offenses at this early stage in the season. Both of these teams appear ready to illustrate a perfect example of this rule in this game. Both teams feature outstanding punters with VT's Burns earning Big East 2nd team honors the past two seasons and USC's Malone is a top NFL prospect after being named 1st team all-American last year. USC knows the only way they can lose this game is to make big mistakes (turnovers, special teams). I look for them to come out with a conservative gameplan early on and rely on their defense to set the tone. Play the under.
Under 48.5
*Early Look plays are recommended for 1/2 UNIT.
I also believe the first half under (24/24.5) is a worth a bet. Both teams are likely to be even more conservative and less comfortable early on in the game. This also limits the chance of any potential garbage points scored late in the game against backups if the game is out of hand.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
Our complete service (Early Looks, RAS Official Plays, and Halftime Service) is e-mailed out free for the entire first month of every college season.
-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 10pm Pacific on Sunday, August 29th.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No official RAS play this week.
Due to abbreviated schedule, there will be no live half-time service this week.
One early look this week:
The line movement on this total was amazing on Tuesday as only one major offshore sportsbook posted it with an opening total of 59.5 at 6:45am Pacific. The line was at 50 on Wednesday morning as a few more books put out numbers. It has finally settled now at 48.5, right around where I expected it to be in my initial Sunday night write-up. The play will be graded at 48 and it remains an "early look" which is recommended as a 1/2 UNIT play. I have learned my lesson. In the future, I will never quote a line unless it is available at multiple sportsbooks. However, as a general rule I encourage everyone to place wagers at the first available line they can find.
EARLY LOOK - USC vs Virginia Tech (UNDER 48.5) - 4:45pm - Saturday - 8/28/04 - Landover, MD
Many factors suggest this will be a low scoring game. USC only averaged 310.5 yards of offense (137.5 less than season average) in their first two games of last season. This year they will start the season with just two returning full time starters on offense unless as it is now official that star WR Mike Williams (ineligible) will miss the season. USC has four new offensive line starters (the lone returning starter has been slowed by injury) who have good size and potential but as is often the case with inexperienced linemen they will be better run blockers than pass protectors in the early going. Practice reports have confirmed this to be the case. This means USC will probably be handing the ball off a lot to their impressive tailback duo of LenDale White and Reggie Bush. Meanwhile, the strength of the Virginia Tech defense is their front seven which reportedly has looked strong all spring, summer, and fall. With it being the season opener against the #1 ranked team in the country, they will be fired up and ready to go. Fueled by what is sure to be a partisan crowd, the Hokie defense should at least be able to make USC work for yards on the ground. When USC opts to pass, Tech should be able to apply decent QB pressure on Leinart who at 6-5, 220 is not very mobile.
Many teams are going to struggle against USC's defense this year, head coach Carroll calls it the most experienced returning unit in his tenure. The Hokies will be trying to fill holes at RB, WR, and center where they lost three of the school's all time greats, all of which are in the NFL now. Two projected skill position starters RB Humes (ankle, upgraded to expected to start) and WR Clifton (wrist, upgraded to expected to start) have been slowed by injuries in fall practice. I believe Virginia Tech knows they will not be able to run successfully on USC. Scrimmage reports suggest they will try to implement a short passing game with lots of QB rollouts. This in an attempt to neutralize the imposing Trojan defensive line. However, Tech lacks a playmaking receiver and the USC defense features great team speed as well as one of the top LB groups in the country. USC is very adept at limiting yards after catch. Without the help of a turnover or big special teams play, I do not expect Virginia Tech to score any meaningful amount of points.
As a general rule, defenses are ahead of offenses at this early stage in the season. Both of these teams appear ready to illustrate a perfect example of this rule in this game. Both teams feature outstanding punters with VT's Burns earning Big East 2nd team honors the past two seasons and USC's Malone is a top NFL prospect after being named 1st team all-American last year. USC knows the only way they can lose this game is to make big mistakes (turnovers, special teams). I look for them to come out with a conservative gameplan early on and rely on their defense to set the tone. Play the under.
Under 48.5
*Early Look plays are recommended for 1/2 UNIT.
I also believe the first half under (24/24.5) is a worth a bet. Both teams are likely to be even more conservative and less comfortable early on in the game. This also limits the chance of any potential garbage points scored late in the game against backups if the game is out of hand.
Good luck!
Cordially,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
Our complete service (Early Looks, RAS Official Plays, and Halftime Service) is e-mailed out free for the entire first month of every college season.