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52-32 ATS L4 WEEKS
After 6 weeks of College Football this 2006 season, we can make some definitive statements regarding the impact that the new clock rules have had on the game. Generally speaking, offensive production has been reduced by nearly 10%. The average score of a college football game is now 46 PPG. On average, 55% of all plays are running plays. Teams still average 4.0 YPR, yet running production has been reduced to 137 RYPG and passing to 204 PYPG. Clearly, this bureau has found the rule changes to it's liking, making the necessary and proper adjustments which have resulted in outstanding YTD results. Hope you're along for the rest of the ride. Now on to this week in college football.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14
WEST VIRGINIA (-25) over Syracuse by 32 (Noon)
WVU coach Rodriguez was incensed over the 11 penalties for 132 yards in the Mounties miracle cover LW at Miss. St. (returned a punt for a TD with just a minute remaining). He has cracked the whip in practice this week as they gear up for Big East wars. Orange are certainly improved following their 1-10 SU season of 2005. Yet the last 2 weeks have given a glimpse of their continuing defensive deficiencies. The inept Wyoming offense gained over 500 yards while Pitt ran for 236 yards LW. Their own offense is still averaging a meager 276 YPG. In any event they don't figure to slow down a Mountie attack that runs 75% of the time for 280 RYPG on 6.2 YPR. This match-up a possible candidate FOR A STEAMROLLER WINNER OR A 5* BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK WINNER (NOW 5-1 ATS)
WISCONSIN (-8) over Minnesota by 16 (NOON)
Badgers STEAMROLLED for us LW in their 41-9 victory vs. Northwestern, out gaining the Cats 527-216. Later in the day, Minnesota was losing an OT heartbreaker to Penn St. History says Badgers rule again as they have covered L4 in the series vs. Gophers. Wisky features a balanced, explosive offense, averaging over 400 yards. But the real key to this victory is a far superior defense which allows just 13 PPG and 246 YPG.
NC STATE (-3.5) over Wake Forest by 10 (Noon)
I'm well aware of the pointspread profile of the Amato coached Wolf Pack. They stand just 3-11 ATS HF and historically have failed following huge wins such as the one they had last Thursday Night vs. Florida St. In addition, Wake, under Grobe, has been far more prosperous in the role of underdog. Though this is a veteran Wake team, their 5-0 SU bubble (against the weakest schedule in the Nation) was exposed in the 4th Q vs. Clemson LW. As a result, a freefall into ACC mediocrity or worse is a probable event.
S. Florida (-2.5) over NORTH CAROLINA by 10 (Noon)
Tarheels are in a freefall of their own at 1-4 SU and 0-7 ATS, albeit vs. a much tougher schedule. Worse news is that they may not be stepping as far down in class as they think following their road trip to Clemson and Miami. S. Florida won as our 5* BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK LW (now 5-1 ATS) out rushing U. Conn 205-60 in a 38-16 victory. Though out manned a bit on their defensive line this week, one of the top LB corps in the Nation is a major reason they allow just 3.1 YPR and 114 RYPG. Key to this year's success, however, has been do-everything QB Grothe who has ignited a long dormant Bulls offense. Despite the Tarheels unimpressive record, emerging S. Florida will have no problem getting motivated for a trip to ACC country.
Missouri (-2) over TEXAS A&M by 9 (2:00)
Well aware that the Tigers win at TTRR was a bit misleading as they prospered from 5 TOs including 2 "Pick 6's". Also realize that consecutive trips to Texas can be most challenging. Don't expect a lack of motivation as no less than 26 of these Tigers are from the Lone Star State. First year QB Daniels and the balanced 32 PPG offense are getting most of the ink. But I have noticed the vastly improved defense allowing just 13 PPG and 274 YPG. Must respect the home road dichotomy that favors the Aggies. Yet their 21-18 escape at Lawrence LW has let down written all over it.
Nebraska (-10) over KANSAS ST by 17 (2:00)
We lost a play with Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. LW, when the Wild Cats scored on a blocked punt, later trailed 27-17, but rallied to score 2 TDs in the last 3 minutes for 31-27 lead. That held up as the final when they intercepted a pass in the end zone in the games final play. Later in the evening, Nebraska was flexing its muscles in a 28-14 win at Iowa St in which they rushed for 251 yards. That now puts them into the elite "200 Club" which finds them both running and passing for 200 + yards and averaging 36 PPG. With a top 25 pass defense and a D line allowing just 96 RYPG and 3.4 YPR, they now feature the type of statistical profile that always grabs my attention. State's HC Prince has committed to a youth movement including starting a true freshman at QB. That puts them about 3 years behind where Nebraska is today.
N. Illinois (-2) over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 9 (2:00)
One of last weeks most surprising college football results was the Huskies 28-25 win, no cover, against 0-6 SU Miami Ohio. RB Wolfe underperformed his Heisman hype and the Red Hawks played with Superbowl intensity as they took advantage of NIUs weak link, their pass defense. Not sure that will happen this week vs. a Western Michigan passing game that is averaging just 148 PYPG. Key here is again the Husky dominance at the point of attack. Led by RB Wolfe, they are averaging 264 RYPG on 7.8 YPR. That helps to open the passing lanes for accurate QB Horvath, keying an attack that gains a balanced 479 YPG. In the L2Y, Huskies have rung up 101 points and 1203 yards against this defense including 277 RY by RB Wolfe LY. Last week, Western allowed the lethargic OU ground game (105 RYPG, 3.3 YPR) to ramble for 257 yards. We get our money back with the Huskies this Saturday. The Broncos just 1-9 ATS as HD L5Y.
ALABAMA (-15) over Mississippi by 22 (3:30)
In this weeks feature article "IS YOUR TEAM SUFFERING FROM ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION" I note the importance of having your team physically, mentally, and psychologically ready to play each week. Sandwiched between 2 SEC road games at Arkansas and Florida, with a pair of SEC games ahead, the Tide was clearly not focused on giving their best effort vs. lowly Duke LW. In fact, the Devils out rushed them 201-134 in an eventual 30-14 Alabama win. Expect much better focus against rival Ole Miss in a series which has seen the home team cover 6 consecutive games. I was fooled by the first game of the year for Ole Miss in their victory over Memphis. I thought I was seeing an emerging set of triplets in QB Schaffer, RB Green-Ellis and WR McCluster. That's proven to be a sham as the Memphis defense is allowing over 200 YPG both rushing and passing. Meanwhile, the Rebels own offense is averaging just 13 PPG and 259 YPG. In their game LW vs. Vandy, they prospered from 5 TOs, gained only 179 yards, managed only 7 first downs, yet, got the victory when they scored on a "Pick 6" on the final play of the game against Vandy's second string QB. It was an ugly 17-10 win. Not so fortunate this week against the more erectile Tide.
Utah (-4) over Wyoming by 11 (3:00)
This is the best Wyoming defense in years, allowing just 20 PPG and 230 YPG. Though that has been accomplished against the likes of such inept attack units such as Utah St., Virginia, Syracuse and New Mexico, it's most impressive that they held Boise St. to just 17 points. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they have just a 22 PPG offense to back it up and stand just 2-4 SU. In an attempt to remedy that, Wyoming started red shirt freshman QB Sween in their 14-10 victory at New Mexico. Though the Utes have struggled when facing superior competition such as UCLA and Boise St., they have dominated all 4 other comers including an impressive 20-7 home win vs. TCU last Thursday night. They more than match the Cowboys on defense allowing just 16 PPG and have the balanced offense to again succeed against this class of inferior opposition.
Florida (+1) over AUBURN by 6 (7:45)
Don't like the "set up" of the divergent results these teams had last week. Auburn figures to bounce back with fury after allowing Arkansas to out rush them 279-60 in the Hogs 27-10 win on this field as +15 LW. Later that evening, Florida was winning 23-10 at home vs. LSU, a game the Tigers gift -wrapped for the Gators with 5 TOs. But the numbers don't lie. Gators have the more balanced, explosive offense and are superior at stopping both the run and the pass. Perhaps the Auburn loss, which extinguished their National Title hopes, turns into unbeaten let down rather than bounce back.
California (-8) over WASHINGTON ST by 15 (5:00)
Each of these teams provided LTS winners LW as short favorites. It was the 4th time in 5 weeks that I have gone with the Bears which has accounted for +17 units of profit (dime players are up $17,000). Have a lot of good feelings about Wash St too. Not ready to jump off the Bear bandwagon which features one of the most balanced, explosive attacks in the Nation.
WASHINGTON (-9) over Oregon St by 16 (6:30)
The Beavers were compliant in laying down for us vs. the Cougars last Saturday gaining only 287 yards in the 13-6 defeat. That was not unusual, as for the season they average just 18 PPG and only 88 RYPG. Now in an effort to jumpstart the offense, the Corvallis faithful have instituted a QB controversy for HC Riley. We just hope we haven't come to the party for the Huskies too late. Under HC Willingham, the Huskies are making their move back up the charts. There have been 4 straight covers. Yet, they are off a hard fought loss to USC, a game they were in till the final gun. Every statistic across the board has improved including, most importantly, reestablishing themselves at the point of attack where they are out gaining the opposition 4.7 to 3.5 YPR.
Toledo (+7) over KENT ST by 1 (4:00)
These 2 are headed opposite directions. The Rockets were 9-3 SU LY. This year, they stand just 2-4 SU. Kent ST was 1-10 SU LY. This year they are America's darlings at 4-2 SU ATS. As a result, this line is more than 3 TDs from where it would have been on opening week. Simply not willing to believe these coats have turned their color so quickly.
FRESNO ST (+5) over Hawaii by 2 (5:00)
The Bulldogs, 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS, have now failed to cover 8 consecutive games since they left it all on the field following their near upset of #1 USC last November. New QB Brandstater is losing confidence quickly. The passing attack has diminished to just 155 PYPG. That's a long way from the 382 PYPG being recorded by June Jones Redgun Offense led by QB Brennan. But a vote goes here to the Red Wave on one of Americas toughest home fields with a Bulldog team getting nearly 3 TDs more than the line would have been opening week.
LOUISVILLE (-26.5) over Cincinnati by 34 (3:30)
Bear Cat defense is notably improved allowing just 95 RYPG and 3.3 YPR. They have much to prove after being smoked by this Louisville offense in the 2 previous meetings. But Cardinal defense is superior across the board and have been like money in the bank L2Y on this field. Their recent stats show a record of 13-1 ATS as HF averaging 53 PPG. Holding a 3.7 net YPR dif at the point of attack, they could again STEAMROLL their cross-river rival into submission.
Texas Tech (-7) over COLORADO by 14 (3:30)
I lost a top play selection on Colorado LW. Since they are 0-6 SU, 1-3 ATS and have lost 10 consecutive games, it looks like it may well have been a stupid selection. But if you had a 5 -point home favorite who you knew was going to out rush the opposition 276-110, where would you want your money? Now, with hopes of a winning season out he window, and injuries mounting to the defense secondary, they could well prove vulnerable to the vaunted TTRR passing attack. Despite their 38-21 home loss to Missouri LW, they gained 378 PY. It was 5 TOs that did them in. Yet, the Raiders have been nothing if not resilient, standing 18-6 ATS / loss L6+Y. It might be scary to be a Buff backer this week.
LSU (-26) over Kentucky by 33 (8:00)
Following their 5 TO debacle, and ensuing elimination from the SEC race., one might question the mentality of LSU. Their motivation would be of more concern if they weren't 6-0 ATS / loss. The Wild Cat defense, allowing 32 PPG and nearly 500 YPG, will offer little resistance. LSU's top rated pass defense and stifling defensive front resulting in a 5.0 net YPR dif could make this look like an easy STEAMROLLING proposition by half time.
USC (-19) over Arizona ST by 26 (8:00, ABC)
Behind the downward offensive spiral of QB Carpenter, AZ. ST. enters with 2 weeks to focus on their lack of confidence following losses to Oregon and Cal by a combined count of 97-34. Already known as one of the worst road teams in college football, don't expect that confidence to grow against a USC top 10 pass defense who's defensive line will be frothing at the mouth. Expect a huge confidence-building win by the offense against a helpless Aztec defense allowing 4.9 YPR with a bottom 25% pass defense. Gift!!
Michigan (-6) over PENN ST by 13 (8:00)
While USC is stating their case for #1 in the Country on the left coast, East Coast viewers will be witnessing the real #1 team, the Michigan Wolverines. This point will be made abundantly clear in late November at Ohio St. The Wolverines simply have the best profile of any team in the country. A balanced offense is averaging 34 PPG while they are allowing just 40 RYPG on 1.7 YPR and feature a top 5 pass defense. Yet, you'll be among the minority of Michigan backers. Far more are in love with Paterno and Penn St who they note is playing with bitter lone loss revenge, stand 4-0 ATS as home dog and have been hardened by road games at Ohio St., Notre Dame and Minnesota.
TROY (-9) over UL Monroe by 16 (4:00)
At first glance, neither of these teams appear to have much to offer. They are each 1-4 SU, 2-2 ATS, being squashed by the big boys. Now it's time to come back into class with a major match-up advantage for Troy. Troy QB Haugabook, running his 4 WR spread, is the dominant unit on the field. UL Monroe's narrow 10-6 loss at Ark St as phony as it comes as they were out gained 372-223.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15
Boise St (-26) over NEW MEXICO ST by 33 (8:00 ESPN)
At first glance, getting a nearly 4 TD home dog on ESPN who averages 29 PPG and passes for 430 PYPG appears to be the way to go. Yet, undefeated Boise ST, 6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS wants to be BCS bound. The only way to move up in the polls is with a dominating, Nationally Televised win. They have a top 5 passing defense to stop what the Aggies do best. And a balanced, explosive offense which runs 65% of the time for 225 RYPG for 5.5 YPR. Can only see Boise STEAMROLLING their outmanned opposition into submission playing a full 60 minutes to do so.
After 6 weeks of College Football this 2006 season, we can make some definitive statements regarding the impact that the new clock rules have had on the game. Generally speaking, offensive production has been reduced by nearly 10%. The average score of a college football game is now 46 PPG. On average, 55% of all plays are running plays. Teams still average 4.0 YPR, yet running production has been reduced to 137 RYPG and passing to 204 PYPG. Clearly, this bureau has found the rule changes to it's liking, making the necessary and proper adjustments which have resulted in outstanding YTD results. Hope you're along for the rest of the ride. Now on to this week in college football.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14
WEST VIRGINIA (-25) over Syracuse by 32 (Noon)
WVU coach Rodriguez was incensed over the 11 penalties for 132 yards in the Mounties miracle cover LW at Miss. St. (returned a punt for a TD with just a minute remaining). He has cracked the whip in practice this week as they gear up for Big East wars. Orange are certainly improved following their 1-10 SU season of 2005. Yet the last 2 weeks have given a glimpse of their continuing defensive deficiencies. The inept Wyoming offense gained over 500 yards while Pitt ran for 236 yards LW. Their own offense is still averaging a meager 276 YPG. In any event they don't figure to slow down a Mountie attack that runs 75% of the time for 280 RYPG on 6.2 YPR. This match-up a possible candidate FOR A STEAMROLLER WINNER OR A 5* BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK WINNER (NOW 5-1 ATS)
WISCONSIN (-8) over Minnesota by 16 (NOON)
Badgers STEAMROLLED for us LW in their 41-9 victory vs. Northwestern, out gaining the Cats 527-216. Later in the day, Minnesota was losing an OT heartbreaker to Penn St. History says Badgers rule again as they have covered L4 in the series vs. Gophers. Wisky features a balanced, explosive offense, averaging over 400 yards. But the real key to this victory is a far superior defense which allows just 13 PPG and 246 YPG.
NC STATE (-3.5) over Wake Forest by 10 (Noon)
I'm well aware of the pointspread profile of the Amato coached Wolf Pack. They stand just 3-11 ATS HF and historically have failed following huge wins such as the one they had last Thursday Night vs. Florida St. In addition, Wake, under Grobe, has been far more prosperous in the role of underdog. Though this is a veteran Wake team, their 5-0 SU bubble (against the weakest schedule in the Nation) was exposed in the 4th Q vs. Clemson LW. As a result, a freefall into ACC mediocrity or worse is a probable event.
S. Florida (-2.5) over NORTH CAROLINA by 10 (Noon)
Tarheels are in a freefall of their own at 1-4 SU and 0-7 ATS, albeit vs. a much tougher schedule. Worse news is that they may not be stepping as far down in class as they think following their road trip to Clemson and Miami. S. Florida won as our 5* BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK LW (now 5-1 ATS) out rushing U. Conn 205-60 in a 38-16 victory. Though out manned a bit on their defensive line this week, one of the top LB corps in the Nation is a major reason they allow just 3.1 YPR and 114 RYPG. Key to this year's success, however, has been do-everything QB Grothe who has ignited a long dormant Bulls offense. Despite the Tarheels unimpressive record, emerging S. Florida will have no problem getting motivated for a trip to ACC country.
Missouri (-2) over TEXAS A&M by 9 (2:00)
Well aware that the Tigers win at TTRR was a bit misleading as they prospered from 5 TOs including 2 "Pick 6's". Also realize that consecutive trips to Texas can be most challenging. Don't expect a lack of motivation as no less than 26 of these Tigers are from the Lone Star State. First year QB Daniels and the balanced 32 PPG offense are getting most of the ink. But I have noticed the vastly improved defense allowing just 13 PPG and 274 YPG. Must respect the home road dichotomy that favors the Aggies. Yet their 21-18 escape at Lawrence LW has let down written all over it.
Nebraska (-10) over KANSAS ST by 17 (2:00)
We lost a play with Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. LW, when the Wild Cats scored on a blocked punt, later trailed 27-17, but rallied to score 2 TDs in the last 3 minutes for 31-27 lead. That held up as the final when they intercepted a pass in the end zone in the games final play. Later in the evening, Nebraska was flexing its muscles in a 28-14 win at Iowa St in which they rushed for 251 yards. That now puts them into the elite "200 Club" which finds them both running and passing for 200 + yards and averaging 36 PPG. With a top 25 pass defense and a D line allowing just 96 RYPG and 3.4 YPR, they now feature the type of statistical profile that always grabs my attention. State's HC Prince has committed to a youth movement including starting a true freshman at QB. That puts them about 3 years behind where Nebraska is today.
N. Illinois (-2) over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 9 (2:00)
One of last weeks most surprising college football results was the Huskies 28-25 win, no cover, against 0-6 SU Miami Ohio. RB Wolfe underperformed his Heisman hype and the Red Hawks played with Superbowl intensity as they took advantage of NIUs weak link, their pass defense. Not sure that will happen this week vs. a Western Michigan passing game that is averaging just 148 PYPG. Key here is again the Husky dominance at the point of attack. Led by RB Wolfe, they are averaging 264 RYPG on 7.8 YPR. That helps to open the passing lanes for accurate QB Horvath, keying an attack that gains a balanced 479 YPG. In the L2Y, Huskies have rung up 101 points and 1203 yards against this defense including 277 RY by RB Wolfe LY. Last week, Western allowed the lethargic OU ground game (105 RYPG, 3.3 YPR) to ramble for 257 yards. We get our money back with the Huskies this Saturday. The Broncos just 1-9 ATS as HD L5Y.
ALABAMA (-15) over Mississippi by 22 (3:30)
In this weeks feature article "IS YOUR TEAM SUFFERING FROM ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION" I note the importance of having your team physically, mentally, and psychologically ready to play each week. Sandwiched between 2 SEC road games at Arkansas and Florida, with a pair of SEC games ahead, the Tide was clearly not focused on giving their best effort vs. lowly Duke LW. In fact, the Devils out rushed them 201-134 in an eventual 30-14 Alabama win. Expect much better focus against rival Ole Miss in a series which has seen the home team cover 6 consecutive games. I was fooled by the first game of the year for Ole Miss in their victory over Memphis. I thought I was seeing an emerging set of triplets in QB Schaffer, RB Green-Ellis and WR McCluster. That's proven to be a sham as the Memphis defense is allowing over 200 YPG both rushing and passing. Meanwhile, the Rebels own offense is averaging just 13 PPG and 259 YPG. In their game LW vs. Vandy, they prospered from 5 TOs, gained only 179 yards, managed only 7 first downs, yet, got the victory when they scored on a "Pick 6" on the final play of the game against Vandy's second string QB. It was an ugly 17-10 win. Not so fortunate this week against the more erectile Tide.
Utah (-4) over Wyoming by 11 (3:00)
This is the best Wyoming defense in years, allowing just 20 PPG and 230 YPG. Though that has been accomplished against the likes of such inept attack units such as Utah St., Virginia, Syracuse and New Mexico, it's most impressive that they held Boise St. to just 17 points. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they have just a 22 PPG offense to back it up and stand just 2-4 SU. In an attempt to remedy that, Wyoming started red shirt freshman QB Sween in their 14-10 victory at New Mexico. Though the Utes have struggled when facing superior competition such as UCLA and Boise St., they have dominated all 4 other comers including an impressive 20-7 home win vs. TCU last Thursday night. They more than match the Cowboys on defense allowing just 16 PPG and have the balanced offense to again succeed against this class of inferior opposition.
Florida (+1) over AUBURN by 6 (7:45)
Don't like the "set up" of the divergent results these teams had last week. Auburn figures to bounce back with fury after allowing Arkansas to out rush them 279-60 in the Hogs 27-10 win on this field as +15 LW. Later that evening, Florida was winning 23-10 at home vs. LSU, a game the Tigers gift -wrapped for the Gators with 5 TOs. But the numbers don't lie. Gators have the more balanced, explosive offense and are superior at stopping both the run and the pass. Perhaps the Auburn loss, which extinguished their National Title hopes, turns into unbeaten let down rather than bounce back.
California (-8) over WASHINGTON ST by 15 (5:00)
Each of these teams provided LTS winners LW as short favorites. It was the 4th time in 5 weeks that I have gone with the Bears which has accounted for +17 units of profit (dime players are up $17,000). Have a lot of good feelings about Wash St too. Not ready to jump off the Bear bandwagon which features one of the most balanced, explosive attacks in the Nation.
WASHINGTON (-9) over Oregon St by 16 (6:30)
The Beavers were compliant in laying down for us vs. the Cougars last Saturday gaining only 287 yards in the 13-6 defeat. That was not unusual, as for the season they average just 18 PPG and only 88 RYPG. Now in an effort to jumpstart the offense, the Corvallis faithful have instituted a QB controversy for HC Riley. We just hope we haven't come to the party for the Huskies too late. Under HC Willingham, the Huskies are making their move back up the charts. There have been 4 straight covers. Yet, they are off a hard fought loss to USC, a game they were in till the final gun. Every statistic across the board has improved including, most importantly, reestablishing themselves at the point of attack where they are out gaining the opposition 4.7 to 3.5 YPR.
Toledo (+7) over KENT ST by 1 (4:00)
These 2 are headed opposite directions. The Rockets were 9-3 SU LY. This year, they stand just 2-4 SU. Kent ST was 1-10 SU LY. This year they are America's darlings at 4-2 SU ATS. As a result, this line is more than 3 TDs from where it would have been on opening week. Simply not willing to believe these coats have turned their color so quickly.
FRESNO ST (+5) over Hawaii by 2 (5:00)
The Bulldogs, 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS, have now failed to cover 8 consecutive games since they left it all on the field following their near upset of #1 USC last November. New QB Brandstater is losing confidence quickly. The passing attack has diminished to just 155 PYPG. That's a long way from the 382 PYPG being recorded by June Jones Redgun Offense led by QB Brennan. But a vote goes here to the Red Wave on one of Americas toughest home fields with a Bulldog team getting nearly 3 TDs more than the line would have been opening week.
LOUISVILLE (-26.5) over Cincinnati by 34 (3:30)
Bear Cat defense is notably improved allowing just 95 RYPG and 3.3 YPR. They have much to prove after being smoked by this Louisville offense in the 2 previous meetings. But Cardinal defense is superior across the board and have been like money in the bank L2Y on this field. Their recent stats show a record of 13-1 ATS as HF averaging 53 PPG. Holding a 3.7 net YPR dif at the point of attack, they could again STEAMROLL their cross-river rival into submission.
Texas Tech (-7) over COLORADO by 14 (3:30)
I lost a top play selection on Colorado LW. Since they are 0-6 SU, 1-3 ATS and have lost 10 consecutive games, it looks like it may well have been a stupid selection. But if you had a 5 -point home favorite who you knew was going to out rush the opposition 276-110, where would you want your money? Now, with hopes of a winning season out he window, and injuries mounting to the defense secondary, they could well prove vulnerable to the vaunted TTRR passing attack. Despite their 38-21 home loss to Missouri LW, they gained 378 PY. It was 5 TOs that did them in. Yet, the Raiders have been nothing if not resilient, standing 18-6 ATS / loss L6+Y. It might be scary to be a Buff backer this week.
LSU (-26) over Kentucky by 33 (8:00)
Following their 5 TO debacle, and ensuing elimination from the SEC race., one might question the mentality of LSU. Their motivation would be of more concern if they weren't 6-0 ATS / loss. The Wild Cat defense, allowing 32 PPG and nearly 500 YPG, will offer little resistance. LSU's top rated pass defense and stifling defensive front resulting in a 5.0 net YPR dif could make this look like an easy STEAMROLLING proposition by half time.
USC (-19) over Arizona ST by 26 (8:00, ABC)
Behind the downward offensive spiral of QB Carpenter, AZ. ST. enters with 2 weeks to focus on their lack of confidence following losses to Oregon and Cal by a combined count of 97-34. Already known as one of the worst road teams in college football, don't expect that confidence to grow against a USC top 10 pass defense who's defensive line will be frothing at the mouth. Expect a huge confidence-building win by the offense against a helpless Aztec defense allowing 4.9 YPR with a bottom 25% pass defense. Gift!!
Michigan (-6) over PENN ST by 13 (8:00)
While USC is stating their case for #1 in the Country on the left coast, East Coast viewers will be witnessing the real #1 team, the Michigan Wolverines. This point will be made abundantly clear in late November at Ohio St. The Wolverines simply have the best profile of any team in the country. A balanced offense is averaging 34 PPG while they are allowing just 40 RYPG on 1.7 YPR and feature a top 5 pass defense. Yet, you'll be among the minority of Michigan backers. Far more are in love with Paterno and Penn St who they note is playing with bitter lone loss revenge, stand 4-0 ATS as home dog and have been hardened by road games at Ohio St., Notre Dame and Minnesota.
TROY (-9) over UL Monroe by 16 (4:00)
At first glance, neither of these teams appear to have much to offer. They are each 1-4 SU, 2-2 ATS, being squashed by the big boys. Now it's time to come back into class with a major match-up advantage for Troy. Troy QB Haugabook, running his 4 WR spread, is the dominant unit on the field. UL Monroe's narrow 10-6 loss at Ark St as phony as it comes as they were out gained 372-223.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15
Boise St (-26) over NEW MEXICO ST by 33 (8:00 ESPN)
At first glance, getting a nearly 4 TD home dog on ESPN who averages 29 PPG and passes for 430 PYPG appears to be the way to go. Yet, undefeated Boise ST, 6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS wants to be BCS bound. The only way to move up in the polls is with a dominating, Nationally Televised win. They have a top 5 passing defense to stop what the Aggies do best. And a balanced, explosive offense which runs 65% of the time for 225 RYPG for 5.5 YPR. Can only see Boise STEAMROLLING their outmanned opposition into submission playing a full 60 minutes to do so.