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Marc Lawrence
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Wednesday, October 18th
LA Lafayette over FLA ATLANTIC by 6
We're not sure what prompted the folks at ESPN to isolate this
game as one of their weekday telecasts and we'll probably end
up watching something else (like Twenty Good Years). Lafayette
is a terrible favorite with three covers in its last 15 chances against
conference foes but the FAU Owls have failed to cover any of their
last six home games. Florida Atlantic, however, is a SMART BOX
play and we'll sheepishly oblige.
Thursday, October 19th
C MICHIGAN over Bowling Green by 7
Three weeks ago, CMU was licking its chops thinking about going
against a fl oundering Bowling Green team. Five straight losses to
the BeeGees, including a 24-point demolition on their home fi eld,
were scheduled to be erased from the Chippewa memory banks.
But Bowling Green is not the same team it was three weeks past
and the Chips will have their hands full today. CMU's 12-4-1 ATS
mark in its last 17 games keeps us from Bowling.
VIRGINIA over N Carolina by 10
Here are two teams that need wins in the worst way. Carolina's
offense is averaging eight ppg in league play this year (the Heels
allow 38 ppg) while going 0-3 SU and ATS. And the Heels haven't
had much luck in Charlottesville. In their last dozen trips here, the
Black Feet are 0-12 SU with only two covers to ease their pain.
With Virginia at 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games with revenge,
we might take a Cavalier approach to this one.
Utah over NEW MEXICO by 8
Utah's offense is a shadow of its former self while New Mexico's
has disappeared completely. This rivalry, and it is a rivalry, has
been dead even over the last 14 years with both teams taking
seven wins and covers. The only edge we see either way is the
fact that winning road favorites, playing off a SU road favorite
loss, are 32-11 ATS before Game Nine of the season. Ute can fi gure
that one out.
Friday, October 20th
W Virginia over CONNECTICUT by 20
With West Virginia at 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 conference
road games, we'll quietly ignore Connecticut's 4-0 ATS mark in its
last four Big East home games. UConn is averaging just 15 ppg
against lined opposition this year while the Hillbillies are rolling
along at over 40 ppg on the season. West Virginia hasn't recovered
very well from Syracuse games (3-14 ATS last 17) but we aren't
likely to step in front of the Mounties here. One thing is for sure:
Both clubs can rush the ball effectively (WVU 6.9 OYPR, UConn
5.1 OYPR).
Saturday, October 21st
PITTSBURGH over Rutgers by 6
We thought the Panthers might run into some trouble in Orlando
last Friday but they came out early and hard to bury an outmanned
Central Florida team. Rutgers isn't outmanned, sailing along at
6-0 on the year. Pittsburgh's only distinct advantage on the fi eld
is at the QB position with Tyler Palko. The numbers department
is a different story. After Navy last week, Rutgers is 1-13 ATS as an
underdog of +2 or more against avenging opponents. Pittsburgh
is 14-0 ATS in their last 14 victories and 11-3 ATS at home off BB
road games. Whew!
PENN ST over Illinois by 25
How can Penn State have anything left in its emotion bag after
winning in overtime at Minnesota two weeks ago and battling
Michigan at home last week on national TV? It probably doesn't,
but the league has proven that you don't have to be at an
emotional peak to beat Illinois. Sure, the Illini would love to exact
revenge for that 63-10 humiliation at the hands of the Nits last
season, but this is a team that blew an 18-point lead to Indiana.
They are also 2-25 SU in their last 27 Big 10 tilts while Jo Pa is 13-
1 ATS in his last 14 SU conference wins when playing off a loss.
Check QB Morelli's status before plunging.
Michigan St over NORTHWESTERN by 4
We remember last year's meeting between these two and we're
sure that Michigan State does. Recall that the Spartans laid 14 at
home to Northwestern, took an early 7-0 lead, then proceeded
to lost the rest of the game 49-7. We don't think the Wildcats will
hit 49 this month but, after the grueling three weeks the Spartans
have had, we're not real excited about laying points with them
here. Curious stat of the week: Northwestern is 13-0 ATS the week
before playing Michigan.
Louisville over SYRACUSE by 17
Louisville is an amazing team. The Cardinals lost TWO Heisman
trophy candidates earlier this season and have nary skipped a
beat. They are rolling along averaging 43.6 ppg on the road
while fashioning a perfect 6-0 record. Still, Syracuse is better
than the team that lost by 24 in Louisville last season and the
Orange are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Here's another
curious stat in light of Louie's awesome road production:
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS at home when it allows 30 or more points.
We're not particularly fond of undefeated road teams at this
stage of the season, especially going into conference revenge.
Be careful here.
OHIO ST over Indiana by 31
The biggest concern to Ohio State fans in this game is TV coverage.
When ESPN assigned this to the little-used ESPNU, Columbus
erupted with a fervor generally reserved for Michigan games. The
Buckeyes themselves will probably not take this game seriously
either. Why should they? Indiana has one win in its last 18
conference road games and is averaging less than one cover per
year on the league road. And they are off that monster upset win
over Iowa last week. Not interested in disinterested chalk, even
ones that are 112-26-3 ATS when scoring 28 or more since 1982!
NC State over MARYLAND by 3
This has been an underdog series to say the least. The puppy has
grabbed the bone 16 times in the last 21 meetings with one push.
NC State is, as you already know, the antithesis of the home fi eld
advantage theory. The Pack is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 as ACC home
favorites but 10-1 ATS as an ACC road dog and 13-2 ATS as any
kind of road dog under Chuck Amato (0-2 ATS last two). Maryland
is 1-9 ATS in its last ten chances as a home favorite. No instruction
sheet needed. You know what to do here.
Tcu over ARMY by 13
You would think that a program as good as TCU's would be a terror
off back-to-back losses, especially with an extra week to prepare
as the Frogs have here. Not so. TCU is a lowly 2-10 ATS as favorites
off back-to-back losses and just 2-8 ATS on the road after a week
off. Army has covered the last four in the series despite losing all
four of the games on the fi eld. Still, with the Cadets at 4-11 ATS
in their last 15 as home dogs, we'll probably stay away from this
Frog and Pony (Okay, Mule) show.
VIRGINIA TECH over S Mississippi by 20
Here's another top-notch program off BB losses with one huge
difference. Virginia Tech is 16-5-1 ATS off a BB losses, including 10-0
ATS Game Eight or earlier and 8-2 ATS at home in that role. The
last time the Hokies were in this situation was in 2002 accentuating
the success of VPI football. Tech is also 14-3 ATS in its last 17 nonconference
games and 5-1 ATS home off a previous home loss,
not to mention 33-7 ATS in SU wins off a loss. Southern Miss, in
off a conference revenger against Houston last week, is 0-5 ATS
in its last fi ve road games. You can't Miss this.
OHIO over Buffalo by 13
We don't remember a game being called because of snow before
October 15th but that's the reason Buffalo has one less day to
prepare today. Not that it should matter all that much. Buffi e
has just four wins in its last 38 games and is 0-26 SU on the road
against .125 or better league teams with the average margin of
defeat standing at 29 points. Fortunately for the Bulls, Ohio is a
dismal 7-12 ATS in its last 19 MAC games. As Republican House
Leader Bill Frist said to quizzical senators when he slipped the
Internet Gambling Bill onto the backend of the recently passed
Port Authority Bill: don't even think about it.
W Michigan over BALL ST by 7
With the nation's best passer rating (195.2), QB Nate Davis leads
the Ball State Cardinals against a wavering Western Michigan club.
The Gonads have covered four of the last fi ve including last year's
60-57 track meet in Kalamazoo. We realize, however, that backing
the nation's worst defense against college football's 10th best stop
troops (over 200 yards the better defense) would make us look
ridiculous. We're not into ridiculous. Lay it if you play it.
ARKANSAS over Mississippi by 21
The SEC West division leader took a week off (played SE Missouri
State last week) to prepare for the Mississippi offensive juggernaut.
Mississippi has won one game in the stats this year against
Kentucky's 118th-ranked defense. Arkansas is 15-2 ATS at home
against avenging opponents in its last 17 tries. They also own a
vaunted rush machine (235 RYPG on 6.1 YPR), the likes of which
makes Ole Miss shudder in its Cotton Kepi's – considering the
Rebs are 18-50 ATS in conference play when they surrender 200 or
more yards on the ground. Don't Miss this one, either.
NOTRE DAME over Ucla by 8
Tom Scott tells us that, for the last two weeks, the media and
the folks surrounding the football team have constructed a
zillion scenarios that would put Notre Dame in the national title
game should the Irish beat Southern Cal. Southern Cal? What
about UCLA?? Overconfidence kills more favorites than any
other weapon on the planet. Remember, the Irish are on a 1-8-1
ATS run and they are 0-8 ATS as home chalk against a winning
team off a loss. Bruins defense (96 YPG superior) makes them a
dangerous dog.
AUBURN over Tulane by 29
With Tulane posting a 1-13 ATS mark in its last 14 SU losses and
Auburn standing at 8-0 ATS in its last eight tries as home favorites
of -12 or more, there is really no reason to analyze this one any
further. Except that, after losing to Arkansas and playing for its SEC
life against Florida in back-to-back weeks, Aubbie can't be terribly
excited about this – and you know how we feel about disinterested
favorites, especially those of this size! Wave bye-bye.
5* BEST BET
S Carolina over VANDERBILT by 15
South Carolina went back to Syvelle Newton when Auburn
came to town and almost upset the Tigers in Columbia. The
next week, with Newton still calling signals, the Gamecocks
won and covered against Kentucky in Lexington. Now, with
a week off, Carolina gets a chance to pad its record against a
feisty but undermanned Vanderbilt team. A bit fat, too, might
we add as the Commies check in off their fi rst win against a
ranked opponent (Georgia) in eons. It was only the 4th win
in 43 games against the Bulldogs, a landmark victory to say
the least. It all sets up a role in which Steve Spurrier has yet to
fail, namely his 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS mark when playing with rest
against a sub .666 conference foe (5-0 SUATS away). The Cocks'
22-2 ATS mark in conference road victories serves as the icing
on the cake. It was dandy, but the party's over for Vandy.
BYU over Unlv by 34
The experts are trying to decide how the nation's best non-BCS
team, Boise State, can get into the ten team party. There are ways
but there is a fl aw in their logic. Boise State isn't the best non-BCS
team. BYU is. The Cougars are 4-2 this year, winning the stats in
both of those road losses and are a half-point away from a perfect
6-0 ATS record. Unlv can't win this game. We mention that because
BYU is 18-0 ATS in its last 18 SU wins.
BAYLOR over Kansas by 3
Kansas makes conference home games a distinct priority and, when
they play them back-to-back, the Jayhawks sometimes run out of
gas if they're on the road the following week. That empty tank has
resulted in 11 pointspread losses in their last 13 times in that role.
Conversely, Baylor is 1-7 ATS at home off BB road games and just
2-5 ATS in its last seven home games overall. These are two teams
that regularly fail in the roles in which they've been cast.
N ILLINOIS over Temple by 36
The only question we have in this game concerns Garrett Wolfe's
rushing yardage. NIU is 38-11-1 ATS in its last 50 wins and, given
that Temple has lost 18 consecutive road games, we like NIU's
chances for a SU win. After three tough league road games,
Northern is happy to be home and eager to reunite with its fans.
Against the nation's fourth-worst rush defense and with the
nation's rushing leader off a dismal effort last week, this should
be a fun reunion for the Huskies.
E CAROLINA over Smu by 7
Last week's effort aside, East Carolina has quietly become one of
football's best pointspread teams. The Pirates had covered seven in
a row before losing to Tulsa last week and have made themselves
into a serious contender for C-USA honors. In their fi fth straight
home game, the Pirates fi gure to be relaxed and composed
enough to get this win. ECU is 32-5 ATS in its last 37 SU wins but
SMU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten league games. Pass for now.
3* BEST BET
MICHIGAN over Iowa by 3
If anything is to be learned from Iowa's lackluster effort at
Indiana last week, it's that the Hawkeyes can't beat anybody if
they're not concentrating on what they're doing as they were
obviously looking ahead to this game. They'll be concentrating
today. Iowa is a strong 7-1-1 ATS against Michigan annually
saving its best for the Wolverines. Iowa is also 6-1 ATS in the
second of BB road games, 9-2 ATS taking doubles and 25-10
ATS in its last 35 Big Ten games. Big Blue is 1-6 ATS in the fi rst
of back-to-back homers. Last week's battle in Happy Valley
might take something out of UM. Nonetheless, our Awesome
Angle (see page 2) cements it. Iowa bags the cash for the 5th
straight time in Ann Arbor today.
Miami FL over DUKE by 27
Miami took the Dukies out behind the cabana last year and
whipped them 52-7 in the Orange Bowl, the stadium – not the
event. Expect a similar result here after Duke was beaten from
pillar to post by Florida State last week while Miami was lolling
around the beach with neighboring Florida International. We
both know that Miami's third team could beat Duke but covering
this spread might be diffi cult for a team that hasn't done it yet
this season. Still, the Canes are 44-14 ATS in SU road wins when
their win percentage is less than .875. That's important to know
considering brawling Miami is 150-0 SU in games in which they
manage to score 30 or more points!
4* BEST BET
NEBRASKA over Texas by 7
Folks up in Lincoln are calling this a preview of the Big 12
championship game. Obviously, the local paper doesn't cover
teams from Missouri in their football pages. Call it whatever
you want, Nebraska better bring everything in their arsenal to
this game. Texas has improved since getting whipped at home
by Ohio State and QB Colt McCoy is beginning to show why
he was so highly recruited. Nonetheless, the Longhorns are
defending National Champs in a very undesirable role here
today (see Marc's MR. BIG STUFF article on page 2 for more).
Shucks, we're all over the Cornhuskers here today!
PURDUE over Wisconsin by 1
Wisconsin wanted to make a statement against Minnesota. The
Badgers really dislike being part of the "Little Nine" and they
showed why they merit more respect than that. Now, the shoe
is on the other paw. It's another member of the Little Nine that
needs to make its mark and Wisconsin is the chalkboard. Despite
the obvious defensive disadvantage, Purdue has a chance here,
at 25-11 ATS at home off a win and 9-3 ATS as home puppies with
revenge against a foe off a win. With double revenge, we just
might have a Boilermaker with our dinner this afternoon.
GEORGIA over Mississippi St by 20
Georgia just can't seem to put a complete game together. When
the defense does its job, the offense doesn't show up and when
the Bulldogs put a bunch on the board, the defense gives up a few
more. Consequently, the Dawgs aren't making much money for
their backers. Against this team, they have a chance to recoup some
losses. Mississippi State is 1-26 SU and 9-18 ATS in its last 27 SEC
road games. In this Dawg battle, take red-faced UGA or pass.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
Alabama over TENNESSEE by 1
Here comes Alabama in its favorite role, an underdog with no
perceived chance to win the game. Certainly, if this turns into
a scoring contest, Tennessee will win. Bama knows it can't let
that happen. There is no home fi eld advantage in this series
with the visitor cashing 13 tickets in the last 14 meetings and
Tennessee has been know for its home failures in big games
under head coach Phil Fulmer (see this week's TRIVIA TEASER
on page 2). Alabama is 24-7-2 as an underdog vs a more than
.800 foe off a win. Double-digit dogs with better defenses
always command our attention. Again.
CALIFORNIA over Washington by 28
While everyone is christening USC as the Pac Ten's BCS
representative, California is waiting in the weeds for the Trojans.
For that game to matter, however, the Bears must get by the
drastically improved Huskies. Cal has been winning easily (by an
average of 26 points prior to Wazzu) in the Pac Ten this year and
will need another easy win to get the money today. That shouldn't
be a problem as they've downed the Huskies by an average win
margin of 39 PPG the last three meetings. Washington is just 6-42-1
ATS in its last 49 PAC Ten losses. This is loss number 50.
WYOMING over Colorado St by 3
Colorado State fans were horrifi ed when the Rams blew that
game to Air Force. CSU had an 18-point lead at the half but was
powerless to stop the Pilots in the second half and unable to
generate a single point against the resilient Air Force defense.
Wyoming's defense is better and Colorado State is defl ated. In this
annual war between two neighboring schools, sometimes your
defense and the other team's lack of oxygen is enough.
C FLORIDA over Rice by 1
Talk about defl ated. Central Florida had high hopes for making
a mark on the national scoreboard when Pittsburgh rolled into
Disney World last Friday. Those hopes lasted less than 80 seconds.
That's how long it took for Pitt to take a 14-0 lead. UCF shouldn't
get their hopes up here either. The Golden Knights are 1-7 ATS
against their last eight avenging opponents and 5-10 ATS in their
last 15 tries as conference home chalk. Rice could be nice.
E MICHIGAN over Toledo by 4
The struggling Rockets are 28-4 ATS in their last 32 SU wins, and,
of all the teams in the MAC conference not named Buffalo, this is
Toledo's best chance for a win. Eastern put up a pretty good fi ght
against Central Michigan at home but has been beaten pretty
badly in more than a few of its other games. Toledo has beaten
the Emus six straight times, averaging more than 28 points each.
Fortunately, we see the SMART BOX on the other side, with us.
Rockets' 0-5 ATS log in Game Eight doesn't help their cause.
AKRON over Miami OH by 14
Akron's hope for a successful season that was brightened by an
upset win over NC State have faded with an 0-2 mark in conference
play and three losses in the last four games. But the Zips can save
their season with a win here. The scars of fi ve consecutive losses
to the RedHawks can be healed in the Rubber Bowl this Saturday.
Miami is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as road dogs while
Akron is 5-1 ATS in its last six with rest. Another SMART BOX play,
this one with a little more punch.
ARIZONA ST over Stanford by 22
In a league with more disappointing teams than any other, these
two are right at the top of the list. Stanford hasn't even put up a
fi ght in conference play and Arizona State is still looking for its
fi rst league win. We can quote all the numbers in the world but
neither of these teams faintly resemble previous editions thereby
nullifying any meaningful trends. Forget about this...
NEVADA over San Jose St by 16
The Spartans have notched their fi rst four-game winning streak in
more than a quarter of a century. What are your expectations of
Jose making it fi ve wins in a row? Ours aren't very high considering
that Nevada is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as home chalk and
that San Jose has lost 14 road games in a row. Wolves itching to
get back on the winning track after the loss at Hawaii.
Oregon St over ARIZONA by 3
We said that Arizona State and Stanford were near the top of
the list of the Pac Ten's most disappointing teams. These two are
also underachieving. Not surprising considering that these two
have scored a combined 39 points in fi ve league games. We can
tell you that prior to last year's shocking loss as a double-digit
favorite, OSU had six straight wins and covers against the Desert
Cats. Lean to the visitor with both the better offense and the
better defense.
HOUSTON over Texas El Paso by 13
Houston needs to reestablish its home fi eld after blowing that 21-0
lead to Sun Belt lightweight LA Lafayette two weeks ago and being
edged by Southern Miss last Saturday. The sketchy Miners could
roll over and fold up against Kevin Kolb's relentless onslaught or
they could fi ght the way they sometimes do when their backs are
against the wall. Houie 48-12-1 in its last 61 SU wins.
LA TECH over Utah St by 7
The Utah State offense hadn't scored a single touchdown on the
road prior to last week's trip to San Jose State and the Utags don't
fi gure to get many here. Not because Tech is a defensive dynamo.
Only Ball State has a worse defense in Div 1-A than the Bulldogs.
So, what you have here is the nation's 3rd worst offense in the
nation going up against its 2nd worst defense. Ever get the feeling
that are just too many teams and not enough quality players?
LSU over Fresno St by 32
Time was when we would take Fresno State and a bushel of points
in situations like this and start walking to the cashier window
immediately after making the bet. (FYI: FSU is taking more points
here today than in any game in our database, dating back to 1980.
They are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 19 or more in that span.) Not so today.
We're not saying that Fresno won't come out and play the Tigers
tough but the Bulldogs sure haven't shown any evidence of that
capability. The loss at Utah State certifi es that this Fresno is nothing
like the other Fresnos that made us so much money. Last week's
hammering by Hawaii confi rms those thoughts. LSU could roll.
IOWA ST over Texas Tech by 3
Iowa State doesn't do as well against the Big 12 as most people
seem to think. The Cyclones have won only three times in the
last 23 games against Big Twelve winning teams, with just eight
covers in those 23 tries. However, as bad as Iowa State has been in
league play, Texas Tech has been equally stinky on the road. The
Red Raiders are 7-20 SU on the road against .400 or better league
opposition and have one cover as road chalk in that role in the
last eight years. ONE. Us, we want the other one.
OKLAHOMA ST over Texas A&M by 6
Texas Tech's road troubles pale in comparison to the woes endured
by Texas A&M, who came up big for us last week as our College
False Favorite Game of the Month selection over Missouri. Today
is, though, a different story. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS on the road
into conference revenge, 6-22 ATS on the road against winning
teams and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games overall. Oklahoma
State hasn't really beaten anybody good this season, although the
effort put forth at Kansas State and Kansas in the last two weeks,
indicates some talent. If the Cowboys are taking, so are we.
MISSOURI over Kansas St by 8
The Tigers have easily been the best team in the Big Twelve North
and fi gure to be able to handle the Wildcats without too much
trouble. But Missouri is returning home off a demanding Texas Two
Step, at Texas Tech and at Texas A&M, and may be a little bit less
enthusiastic this week, especially with 'bubble-burst' lurking in the
air. When was the last time you saw a 16-point underdog who had
beaten its opponent 13 times in a row? We didn't think so. (They
were also double-digit favorites in 11 of those 13 contests). That's
why the Wildcats made our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK.
OKLAHOMA over Colorado by 13
The news about Adrian Peterson had to be devastating for the
Sooners but Oklahoma football will go on and Colorado will face
a fi red-up band of Sooners on this day. The Buffaloes have covered
just fi ve times in their last 31 SU losses. Considering that they
haven't won a road game all season and that Oklahoma hasn't
lost at home yet, we don't like Colorado's chances.
UAB over Marshall by 11
Marshall has covered just once in its last 11 road games against
opponents who are playing with revenge and are 10-23 ATS in
its last 23 league road games. We were impressed with the UAB
ground blitz against Memphis and, should something like that
happen again, Marshall could be in trouble: Our database tells us
that Marshall is 6-20 ATS in the 26 road games in which the Herd
allowed 150 or more ground yards.
CLEMSON over Georgia Tech by 7
Whenever these two get together you had better start looking for
the Milk Bones. In the last ten meetings, the underdog has cashed
every ticket, with nine of the games decided by fi ve or less points.
Tech has other dog credentials such as 13-6 ATS against avenging
opponents and 7-2 ATS in its last nine tries as a road dog. Given
those underdog numbers, you might have already suspected that
the home team is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Boston College over FLORIDA ST by 1
It didn't surprise us that Boston College beat Virginia Tech but we
were a little bit shocked that the Eagles did it so easily. Florida
State has two convincing wins this season, against Rice and
against Duke. The other games were come from behind wins
against Miami and Troy, and losses to Clemson and NC State. The
Seminoles are nothing special. Special is Boston College as a road
underdog (43-24 ATS in their last 69 in that role), including 7-1
ATS when taking 17 or less against a winning team. Amazingly,
FSU is just 5-6 SU in its last 11 games. Do you think it's time to
send Jeff packing, Bobby?
Hawaii over N MEXICO ST by 17
If you like grind-it-out, defensive fi eld position football, stay as
far away from this game as you can get. To these two teams, good
fi eld position is defi ned as inside the stadium. Hawaii should win
the game. The Rainbows are better at the passing game and are
better defensively. If that's something you're buying, then buy a
ticket on the Pineapples. They are 23-3 ATS in their last 26 SU road
wins. New Mexico State is 0-9 ATS vs WAC foes last nine.
Tulsa over MEMPHIS by 18
Tulsa proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is not the least
bit fazed by the C-USA road. Against a red-hot East Carolina team,
the Hurricanes went right into Greenville and smoked the host
Pirates. This was going on while Memphis was coming from ahead
against the Sun Belt's Arkansas State. Tulsa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11
road games and has covered four in a row in Memphis.
Air Force over SAN DIEGO ST by 17
After its disappointing loss to Navy, we thought that Air Force
would be fl atter than Mark Mangino's Lay-Z-Boy and it was – for
a half. But, like all military teams, the Pilots didn't give up and
rallied back from 18 down at the half to wind up winning last
week's game against Colorado State. Injuries have ruined the
Aztecs' season. Air Force is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road wins vs
foes off BB losses.
Boise St over IDAHO by 13
In the battle for the Golden Potato Masher, we have an inkling
that Boise might win the game. The Broncos have won the last
fi ve meetings by an average of 31 points per game and are 53-17
ATS in the last 70 games in which they scored at least 28. Idaho
would love to win this game and maybe someday it will, but this
is not the year. Nonetheless, the Broncos are another of those
undefeated roadies playing their tentative best not to lose.
Oregon over WASHINGTON ST by 5
Oregon jumped out early against our UCLA 5★ play last week and
never let the Bruins back in the game. It was a big game for the
Ducks but, since they've already lost at California, so is this. We love
the way this Washington State team battles every week but, when
you go against an offensive machine like Oregon, you need all of
your weapons and, right now, Wazzu doesn't. Attractive home dog
if the Puma get Jason Hill, their ace WR, back. Wazzu is 24-8 ATS
here as a dog in games they score 21-plus points, including 17-2
ATS when seeking revenge. Let's wait on this one...
ADDED GAMES
ARKANSAS ST over N Texas by 11
Arkansas State had been waiting all year to get at the Memphis
Tigers and the Indians took advantage of the opportunity. This
will be a fl at spot. However, there is no spot fl at enough to get us
on North Texas on the road. The Not-so-mean Green has lost six
straight away from home, fi ve of them by at least 20 points.
Mid Tenn St over LA MONROE by 4
Middle Tennessee has covered eight of its last ten road games
with revenge and has just one loss, last year by three points, to
Monroe to go with four wins over the past fi ve years. Monroe is
just 1-8 ATS at home against avenging opponents and but 6-3 ATS
in its last nine tries as home dogs. Tough call.
Sunday, October 22nd
S Florida over CINCINNATI by 3
While Cincinnati was strapping on Louisville, South Florida was
waltzing through Carolina virtually unopposed. You can't have
more diverse opposition than. The question is, can the Bearcats
rebound from that close-but-no-cigar emotional effort to take on
the surging Bulls? One thing is for sure, South Florida has the best
QB on the fi eld. That, and a few points, usually gets you a win.
Playbook (NFL) -
5* BEST BET
Philadelphia over TAMPA BAY by 14
Before playing the Saints last week, the Eagles were 22-10 SU
in their last 32 non-division road games with 21 covers in the
mix, including a sparkling 9-3 ATS log in their last 12. Tampa is
struggling this season, winning on the fi nal play of the game
for the fi rst time last week against the defenseless Bengals.
Do the Eagles remember the home loss to Tampa in the 2002
playoffs and 17-0 home loss to Bucs to open the 2003 season?
Maybe. We do know Philly head coach Andy Reid is 17-6 ATS
away off a loss in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS off a SU
favorite loss (5-0 ATS when favored). Pay Day in the Bay.
4* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
Despite San Diego's road success over the last few years, the
Chargers have never viewed Kansas City as their favorite road
trip. One SU & ATS win in the last nine visits to the Barbecue
Pit is all San Diego could manage. This trip won't be any
easier. With Trent Green back (check status) and the Chiefs
playing Herm Edwards defense, the Chargers better pack their
lunches. Disparate results from last week lend great value to
the host. KC's 9-1 ATS home dog log against foes off back-toback
SUATS wins doesn't hurt, either. Bolts blow a fuse.
3* BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over Washington by 1
Everyone agrees that the Colt rush defense is its Achilles heel
but no one on the Colt staff seems to have the answer. Enter
Washington, a strong running team with a good enough
defense to keep Peyton Manning in check and a home-run
hitting wide receiver to keep the Colts from stacking against
the run. Indy doesn't lose many home games, we know that,
but this number is simply a little too high for our tastes. It's not
often you fi nd a double-digit NFL dog that was a double-digit
favorite the previous week (they are 7-2 ATS since 1980). With
only one of the Colts' fi ve wins by more than seven points this
season, and Washington wounded after last week's shocker
against Tennessee, the points become the play here today.
Jacksonville over HOUSTON by 8
With one win in their last 15 tries (a 21-0 win at Jacksonville in
2004) against winning teams, the Texans won't be at the top of
our list this week. The well-rested Jags have also held four of their
fi ve foes to season low yards this season. But, Jack is a lowly 1-9-1
ATS as road chalk off a non-division home win and 1-6 ATS in its
last seven tries as October favorites into revenge. No thanks.
New England over BUFFALO by 6
New England has pretty much owned the Bills. The Pats are 11-1
SU in the last 12 meetings and a phenomenal 16-3-1 ATS in the
second meeting of the season over the last two decades (beat
Buffi e in season opener this year). Forget revenge. Division home
teams with revenge against the Patriots have covered once in the
last eight opportunities. Still, we think the gap is closing between
these two AFC East rivals and, despite the Pats' 9-0-1 ATS mark in
division games before back-to-back non-division contests, we are
just a bit hesitant to lay points in this situation.
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA by 3
Despite starting this season with losses at Jacksonville and at San
Diego, Pittsburgh remains the premier road team in the NFL.
The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20, including 7-2 ATS as an
underdog (check line). Atlanta is 4-18 at home off a home game,
including 1-12 ATS versus a foe off a win and 1-10 ATS as a dog.
Worse yet, in their NFL history, the Falcons are 1-11-1 SU all-time
against the Black and Gold.
MIAMI over Green Bay by 6
It's sad for us to see Brett Favre struggle like he has but, to his and
his team's credit, the Packers are still playing hard. That could be
enough to get the cover against a Miami team who is a woeful 1-11
ATS in its last dozen tries as home favorites of -3 or more. Miami's
defense, however, is in the top fi ve in the league. Green Bay's
is better than only Houston's. Dolphin receivers dropped seven
crucial passes in last week's loss to the Jets as this team continues
to shoot itself in the foot. Amputation may be in the offi ng.
NY JETS over Detroit by 1
Here we go again with the Lions on the road. Five wins in their
last 43 trips is the what the Lions have managed since the start of
the 2001 season and, with the plethora of injuries at key positions
suffered recently, they don't fi gure to improve that awful road
record. Nevertheless, the Jets don't rebound well after playing
Miami (0-6 ATS last six) and, in their last three tries as a favorite
against NFC teams, they lost all three outright. Surprisingly, the
Lions owns the better rushing stats.
Carolina over CINCINNATI by 3
Going against one of the best dogs in the NFL (Carolina 20-4 ATS
last 24) with a superior defense is not something we're in the habit
of doing and we're not doing it here. Carolina started slowly this
season but has improved every week. They are 4-0 SU with star
WR Steve Smith in the lineup this season. Cincinnati started fast
but is slipping. Take the points.
Denver over CLEVELAND by 6
The Broncos rarely lose to losing teams. With the exception of
season openers where nobody is a winner or a loser, the Broncos
are 21-5 SU in their last 26 against sub .500 clubs. That makes
things tough for the Browns because Denver is 84-9 ATS in its
last 93 SU road wins. Still, Cleveland showed its mettle against a
similar team (Baltimore) on this fi eld earlier and the Browns are 7-2
ATS in their last nine against non-division AFC foes. We think the
Broncos could possibly be more focused on their next two games
(Colts and Steelers) than they might be here today.
SEATTLE over Minnesota by 7
The Vikings had an extra week to prepare for the Seattle offense
but their history against this division is terrible. They are 0-6 SU in
their last six on the road against NFC West and 0-10 ATS in their last
ten. Seattle, though, has just one cover in its last nine tries against
rested teams. One thing's for sure, Minnesota will need more than
one TD, its average production this season, to cover this.
OAKLAND over Arizona by 1
Although Oakland is a perfect 0-9 ATS in its last nine as home dogs
and 3-19-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a division road game,
we're not going to hurry to the Arizona window. The Cardinals
have one cover in their last seven tries as road chalk and just three
wins in their last 31 road games with only eight covers. Sooner or
later, Oakland is going to break through with a win...
Monday, October 23rd
DALLAS over NY Giants by 3
In one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, it is essential that you
protect your home fi eld, particularly in division games, and Dallas
has the numbers to do just that. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS at home
with revenge in October and 8-2 ATS at home off a non-conference
game. The rejuvenated G-Men are 7-1 ATS on the road in October
off back-to-back wins and covers. But this game is about more
than numbers. Both teams have to win to stay in step within the
division. We're still looking for a solid edge.
OVER / UNDERS
5* Panthers/Bengals OVER
4* Cardinals/Raiders OVER
3* Chargers/Chiefs UNDER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, October 18th
LA Lafayette over FLA ATLANTIC by 6
We're not sure what prompted the folks at ESPN to isolate this
game as one of their weekday telecasts and we'll probably end
up watching something else (like Twenty Good Years). Lafayette
is a terrible favorite with three covers in its last 15 chances against
conference foes but the FAU Owls have failed to cover any of their
last six home games. Florida Atlantic, however, is a SMART BOX
play and we'll sheepishly oblige.
Thursday, October 19th
C MICHIGAN over Bowling Green by 7
Three weeks ago, CMU was licking its chops thinking about going
against a fl oundering Bowling Green team. Five straight losses to
the BeeGees, including a 24-point demolition on their home fi eld,
were scheduled to be erased from the Chippewa memory banks.
But Bowling Green is not the same team it was three weeks past
and the Chips will have their hands full today. CMU's 12-4-1 ATS
mark in its last 17 games keeps us from Bowling.
VIRGINIA over N Carolina by 10
Here are two teams that need wins in the worst way. Carolina's
offense is averaging eight ppg in league play this year (the Heels
allow 38 ppg) while going 0-3 SU and ATS. And the Heels haven't
had much luck in Charlottesville. In their last dozen trips here, the
Black Feet are 0-12 SU with only two covers to ease their pain.
With Virginia at 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games with revenge,
we might take a Cavalier approach to this one.
Utah over NEW MEXICO by 8
Utah's offense is a shadow of its former self while New Mexico's
has disappeared completely. This rivalry, and it is a rivalry, has
been dead even over the last 14 years with both teams taking
seven wins and covers. The only edge we see either way is the
fact that winning road favorites, playing off a SU road favorite
loss, are 32-11 ATS before Game Nine of the season. Ute can fi gure
that one out.
Friday, October 20th
W Virginia over CONNECTICUT by 20
With West Virginia at 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 conference
road games, we'll quietly ignore Connecticut's 4-0 ATS mark in its
last four Big East home games. UConn is averaging just 15 ppg
against lined opposition this year while the Hillbillies are rolling
along at over 40 ppg on the season. West Virginia hasn't recovered
very well from Syracuse games (3-14 ATS last 17) but we aren't
likely to step in front of the Mounties here. One thing is for sure:
Both clubs can rush the ball effectively (WVU 6.9 OYPR, UConn
5.1 OYPR).
Saturday, October 21st
PITTSBURGH over Rutgers by 6
We thought the Panthers might run into some trouble in Orlando
last Friday but they came out early and hard to bury an outmanned
Central Florida team. Rutgers isn't outmanned, sailing along at
6-0 on the year. Pittsburgh's only distinct advantage on the fi eld
is at the QB position with Tyler Palko. The numbers department
is a different story. After Navy last week, Rutgers is 1-13 ATS as an
underdog of +2 or more against avenging opponents. Pittsburgh
is 14-0 ATS in their last 14 victories and 11-3 ATS at home off BB
road games. Whew!
PENN ST over Illinois by 25
How can Penn State have anything left in its emotion bag after
winning in overtime at Minnesota two weeks ago and battling
Michigan at home last week on national TV? It probably doesn't,
but the league has proven that you don't have to be at an
emotional peak to beat Illinois. Sure, the Illini would love to exact
revenge for that 63-10 humiliation at the hands of the Nits last
season, but this is a team that blew an 18-point lead to Indiana.
They are also 2-25 SU in their last 27 Big 10 tilts while Jo Pa is 13-
1 ATS in his last 14 SU conference wins when playing off a loss.
Check QB Morelli's status before plunging.
Michigan St over NORTHWESTERN by 4
We remember last year's meeting between these two and we're
sure that Michigan State does. Recall that the Spartans laid 14 at
home to Northwestern, took an early 7-0 lead, then proceeded
to lost the rest of the game 49-7. We don't think the Wildcats will
hit 49 this month but, after the grueling three weeks the Spartans
have had, we're not real excited about laying points with them
here. Curious stat of the week: Northwestern is 13-0 ATS the week
before playing Michigan.
Louisville over SYRACUSE by 17
Louisville is an amazing team. The Cardinals lost TWO Heisman
trophy candidates earlier this season and have nary skipped a
beat. They are rolling along averaging 43.6 ppg on the road
while fashioning a perfect 6-0 record. Still, Syracuse is better
than the team that lost by 24 in Louisville last season and the
Orange are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. Here's another
curious stat in light of Louie's awesome road production:
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS at home when it allows 30 or more points.
We're not particularly fond of undefeated road teams at this
stage of the season, especially going into conference revenge.
Be careful here.
OHIO ST over Indiana by 31
The biggest concern to Ohio State fans in this game is TV coverage.
When ESPN assigned this to the little-used ESPNU, Columbus
erupted with a fervor generally reserved for Michigan games. The
Buckeyes themselves will probably not take this game seriously
either. Why should they? Indiana has one win in its last 18
conference road games and is averaging less than one cover per
year on the league road. And they are off that monster upset win
over Iowa last week. Not interested in disinterested chalk, even
ones that are 112-26-3 ATS when scoring 28 or more since 1982!
NC State over MARYLAND by 3
This has been an underdog series to say the least. The puppy has
grabbed the bone 16 times in the last 21 meetings with one push.
NC State is, as you already know, the antithesis of the home fi eld
advantage theory. The Pack is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 as ACC home
favorites but 10-1 ATS as an ACC road dog and 13-2 ATS as any
kind of road dog under Chuck Amato (0-2 ATS last two). Maryland
is 1-9 ATS in its last ten chances as a home favorite. No instruction
sheet needed. You know what to do here.
Tcu over ARMY by 13
You would think that a program as good as TCU's would be a terror
off back-to-back losses, especially with an extra week to prepare
as the Frogs have here. Not so. TCU is a lowly 2-10 ATS as favorites
off back-to-back losses and just 2-8 ATS on the road after a week
off. Army has covered the last four in the series despite losing all
four of the games on the fi eld. Still, with the Cadets at 4-11 ATS
in their last 15 as home dogs, we'll probably stay away from this
Frog and Pony (Okay, Mule) show.
VIRGINIA TECH over S Mississippi by 20
Here's another top-notch program off BB losses with one huge
difference. Virginia Tech is 16-5-1 ATS off a BB losses, including 10-0
ATS Game Eight or earlier and 8-2 ATS at home in that role. The
last time the Hokies were in this situation was in 2002 accentuating
the success of VPI football. Tech is also 14-3 ATS in its last 17 nonconference
games and 5-1 ATS home off a previous home loss,
not to mention 33-7 ATS in SU wins off a loss. Southern Miss, in
off a conference revenger against Houston last week, is 0-5 ATS
in its last fi ve road games. You can't Miss this.
OHIO over Buffalo by 13
We don't remember a game being called because of snow before
October 15th but that's the reason Buffalo has one less day to
prepare today. Not that it should matter all that much. Buffi e
has just four wins in its last 38 games and is 0-26 SU on the road
against .125 or better league teams with the average margin of
defeat standing at 29 points. Fortunately for the Bulls, Ohio is a
dismal 7-12 ATS in its last 19 MAC games. As Republican House
Leader Bill Frist said to quizzical senators when he slipped the
Internet Gambling Bill onto the backend of the recently passed
Port Authority Bill: don't even think about it.
W Michigan over BALL ST by 7
With the nation's best passer rating (195.2), QB Nate Davis leads
the Ball State Cardinals against a wavering Western Michigan club.
The Gonads have covered four of the last fi ve including last year's
60-57 track meet in Kalamazoo. We realize, however, that backing
the nation's worst defense against college football's 10th best stop
troops (over 200 yards the better defense) would make us look
ridiculous. We're not into ridiculous. Lay it if you play it.
ARKANSAS over Mississippi by 21
The SEC West division leader took a week off (played SE Missouri
State last week) to prepare for the Mississippi offensive juggernaut.
Mississippi has won one game in the stats this year against
Kentucky's 118th-ranked defense. Arkansas is 15-2 ATS at home
against avenging opponents in its last 17 tries. They also own a
vaunted rush machine (235 RYPG on 6.1 YPR), the likes of which
makes Ole Miss shudder in its Cotton Kepi's – considering the
Rebs are 18-50 ATS in conference play when they surrender 200 or
more yards on the ground. Don't Miss this one, either.
NOTRE DAME over Ucla by 8
Tom Scott tells us that, for the last two weeks, the media and
the folks surrounding the football team have constructed a
zillion scenarios that would put Notre Dame in the national title
game should the Irish beat Southern Cal. Southern Cal? What
about UCLA?? Overconfidence kills more favorites than any
other weapon on the planet. Remember, the Irish are on a 1-8-1
ATS run and they are 0-8 ATS as home chalk against a winning
team off a loss. Bruins defense (96 YPG superior) makes them a
dangerous dog.
AUBURN over Tulane by 29
With Tulane posting a 1-13 ATS mark in its last 14 SU losses and
Auburn standing at 8-0 ATS in its last eight tries as home favorites
of -12 or more, there is really no reason to analyze this one any
further. Except that, after losing to Arkansas and playing for its SEC
life against Florida in back-to-back weeks, Aubbie can't be terribly
excited about this – and you know how we feel about disinterested
favorites, especially those of this size! Wave bye-bye.
5* BEST BET
S Carolina over VANDERBILT by 15
South Carolina went back to Syvelle Newton when Auburn
came to town and almost upset the Tigers in Columbia. The
next week, with Newton still calling signals, the Gamecocks
won and covered against Kentucky in Lexington. Now, with
a week off, Carolina gets a chance to pad its record against a
feisty but undermanned Vanderbilt team. A bit fat, too, might
we add as the Commies check in off their fi rst win against a
ranked opponent (Georgia) in eons. It was only the 4th win
in 43 games against the Bulldogs, a landmark victory to say
the least. It all sets up a role in which Steve Spurrier has yet to
fail, namely his 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS mark when playing with rest
against a sub .666 conference foe (5-0 SUATS away). The Cocks'
22-2 ATS mark in conference road victories serves as the icing
on the cake. It was dandy, but the party's over for Vandy.
BYU over Unlv by 34
The experts are trying to decide how the nation's best non-BCS
team, Boise State, can get into the ten team party. There are ways
but there is a fl aw in their logic. Boise State isn't the best non-BCS
team. BYU is. The Cougars are 4-2 this year, winning the stats in
both of those road losses and are a half-point away from a perfect
6-0 ATS record. Unlv can't win this game. We mention that because
BYU is 18-0 ATS in its last 18 SU wins.
BAYLOR over Kansas by 3
Kansas makes conference home games a distinct priority and, when
they play them back-to-back, the Jayhawks sometimes run out of
gas if they're on the road the following week. That empty tank has
resulted in 11 pointspread losses in their last 13 times in that role.
Conversely, Baylor is 1-7 ATS at home off BB road games and just
2-5 ATS in its last seven home games overall. These are two teams
that regularly fail in the roles in which they've been cast.
N ILLINOIS over Temple by 36
The only question we have in this game concerns Garrett Wolfe's
rushing yardage. NIU is 38-11-1 ATS in its last 50 wins and, given
that Temple has lost 18 consecutive road games, we like NIU's
chances for a SU win. After three tough league road games,
Northern is happy to be home and eager to reunite with its fans.
Against the nation's fourth-worst rush defense and with the
nation's rushing leader off a dismal effort last week, this should
be a fun reunion for the Huskies.
E CAROLINA over Smu by 7
Last week's effort aside, East Carolina has quietly become one of
football's best pointspread teams. The Pirates had covered seven in
a row before losing to Tulsa last week and have made themselves
into a serious contender for C-USA honors. In their fi fth straight
home game, the Pirates fi gure to be relaxed and composed
enough to get this win. ECU is 32-5 ATS in its last 37 SU wins but
SMU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten league games. Pass for now.
3* BEST BET
MICHIGAN over Iowa by 3
If anything is to be learned from Iowa's lackluster effort at
Indiana last week, it's that the Hawkeyes can't beat anybody if
they're not concentrating on what they're doing as they were
obviously looking ahead to this game. They'll be concentrating
today. Iowa is a strong 7-1-1 ATS against Michigan annually
saving its best for the Wolverines. Iowa is also 6-1 ATS in the
second of BB road games, 9-2 ATS taking doubles and 25-10
ATS in its last 35 Big Ten games. Big Blue is 1-6 ATS in the fi rst
of back-to-back homers. Last week's battle in Happy Valley
might take something out of UM. Nonetheless, our Awesome
Angle (see page 2) cements it. Iowa bags the cash for the 5th
straight time in Ann Arbor today.
Miami FL over DUKE by 27
Miami took the Dukies out behind the cabana last year and
whipped them 52-7 in the Orange Bowl, the stadium – not the
event. Expect a similar result here after Duke was beaten from
pillar to post by Florida State last week while Miami was lolling
around the beach with neighboring Florida International. We
both know that Miami's third team could beat Duke but covering
this spread might be diffi cult for a team that hasn't done it yet
this season. Still, the Canes are 44-14 ATS in SU road wins when
their win percentage is less than .875. That's important to know
considering brawling Miami is 150-0 SU in games in which they
manage to score 30 or more points!
4* BEST BET
NEBRASKA over Texas by 7
Folks up in Lincoln are calling this a preview of the Big 12
championship game. Obviously, the local paper doesn't cover
teams from Missouri in their football pages. Call it whatever
you want, Nebraska better bring everything in their arsenal to
this game. Texas has improved since getting whipped at home
by Ohio State and QB Colt McCoy is beginning to show why
he was so highly recruited. Nonetheless, the Longhorns are
defending National Champs in a very undesirable role here
today (see Marc's MR. BIG STUFF article on page 2 for more).
Shucks, we're all over the Cornhuskers here today!
PURDUE over Wisconsin by 1
Wisconsin wanted to make a statement against Minnesota. The
Badgers really dislike being part of the "Little Nine" and they
showed why they merit more respect than that. Now, the shoe
is on the other paw. It's another member of the Little Nine that
needs to make its mark and Wisconsin is the chalkboard. Despite
the obvious defensive disadvantage, Purdue has a chance here,
at 25-11 ATS at home off a win and 9-3 ATS as home puppies with
revenge against a foe off a win. With double revenge, we just
might have a Boilermaker with our dinner this afternoon.
GEORGIA over Mississippi St by 20
Georgia just can't seem to put a complete game together. When
the defense does its job, the offense doesn't show up and when
the Bulldogs put a bunch on the board, the defense gives up a few
more. Consequently, the Dawgs aren't making much money for
their backers. Against this team, they have a chance to recoup some
losses. Mississippi State is 1-26 SU and 9-18 ATS in its last 27 SEC
road games. In this Dawg battle, take red-faced UGA or pass.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
Alabama over TENNESSEE by 1
Here comes Alabama in its favorite role, an underdog with no
perceived chance to win the game. Certainly, if this turns into
a scoring contest, Tennessee will win. Bama knows it can't let
that happen. There is no home fi eld advantage in this series
with the visitor cashing 13 tickets in the last 14 meetings and
Tennessee has been know for its home failures in big games
under head coach Phil Fulmer (see this week's TRIVIA TEASER
on page 2). Alabama is 24-7-2 as an underdog vs a more than
.800 foe off a win. Double-digit dogs with better defenses
always command our attention. Again.
CALIFORNIA over Washington by 28
While everyone is christening USC as the Pac Ten's BCS
representative, California is waiting in the weeds for the Trojans.
For that game to matter, however, the Bears must get by the
drastically improved Huskies. Cal has been winning easily (by an
average of 26 points prior to Wazzu) in the Pac Ten this year and
will need another easy win to get the money today. That shouldn't
be a problem as they've downed the Huskies by an average win
margin of 39 PPG the last three meetings. Washington is just 6-42-1
ATS in its last 49 PAC Ten losses. This is loss number 50.
WYOMING over Colorado St by 3
Colorado State fans were horrifi ed when the Rams blew that
game to Air Force. CSU had an 18-point lead at the half but was
powerless to stop the Pilots in the second half and unable to
generate a single point against the resilient Air Force defense.
Wyoming's defense is better and Colorado State is defl ated. In this
annual war between two neighboring schools, sometimes your
defense and the other team's lack of oxygen is enough.
C FLORIDA over Rice by 1
Talk about defl ated. Central Florida had high hopes for making
a mark on the national scoreboard when Pittsburgh rolled into
Disney World last Friday. Those hopes lasted less than 80 seconds.
That's how long it took for Pitt to take a 14-0 lead. UCF shouldn't
get their hopes up here either. The Golden Knights are 1-7 ATS
against their last eight avenging opponents and 5-10 ATS in their
last 15 tries as conference home chalk. Rice could be nice.
E MICHIGAN over Toledo by 4
The struggling Rockets are 28-4 ATS in their last 32 SU wins, and,
of all the teams in the MAC conference not named Buffalo, this is
Toledo's best chance for a win. Eastern put up a pretty good fi ght
against Central Michigan at home but has been beaten pretty
badly in more than a few of its other games. Toledo has beaten
the Emus six straight times, averaging more than 28 points each.
Fortunately, we see the SMART BOX on the other side, with us.
Rockets' 0-5 ATS log in Game Eight doesn't help their cause.
AKRON over Miami OH by 14
Akron's hope for a successful season that was brightened by an
upset win over NC State have faded with an 0-2 mark in conference
play and three losses in the last four games. But the Zips can save
their season with a win here. The scars of fi ve consecutive losses
to the RedHawks can be healed in the Rubber Bowl this Saturday.
Miami is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as road dogs while
Akron is 5-1 ATS in its last six with rest. Another SMART BOX play,
this one with a little more punch.
ARIZONA ST over Stanford by 22
In a league with more disappointing teams than any other, these
two are right at the top of the list. Stanford hasn't even put up a
fi ght in conference play and Arizona State is still looking for its
fi rst league win. We can quote all the numbers in the world but
neither of these teams faintly resemble previous editions thereby
nullifying any meaningful trends. Forget about this...
NEVADA over San Jose St by 16
The Spartans have notched their fi rst four-game winning streak in
more than a quarter of a century. What are your expectations of
Jose making it fi ve wins in a row? Ours aren't very high considering
that Nevada is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as home chalk and
that San Jose has lost 14 road games in a row. Wolves itching to
get back on the winning track after the loss at Hawaii.
Oregon St over ARIZONA by 3
We said that Arizona State and Stanford were near the top of
the list of the Pac Ten's most disappointing teams. These two are
also underachieving. Not surprising considering that these two
have scored a combined 39 points in fi ve league games. We can
tell you that prior to last year's shocking loss as a double-digit
favorite, OSU had six straight wins and covers against the Desert
Cats. Lean to the visitor with both the better offense and the
better defense.
HOUSTON over Texas El Paso by 13
Houston needs to reestablish its home fi eld after blowing that 21-0
lead to Sun Belt lightweight LA Lafayette two weeks ago and being
edged by Southern Miss last Saturday. The sketchy Miners could
roll over and fold up against Kevin Kolb's relentless onslaught or
they could fi ght the way they sometimes do when their backs are
against the wall. Houie 48-12-1 in its last 61 SU wins.
LA TECH over Utah St by 7
The Utah State offense hadn't scored a single touchdown on the
road prior to last week's trip to San Jose State and the Utags don't
fi gure to get many here. Not because Tech is a defensive dynamo.
Only Ball State has a worse defense in Div 1-A than the Bulldogs.
So, what you have here is the nation's 3rd worst offense in the
nation going up against its 2nd worst defense. Ever get the feeling
that are just too many teams and not enough quality players?
LSU over Fresno St by 32
Time was when we would take Fresno State and a bushel of points
in situations like this and start walking to the cashier window
immediately after making the bet. (FYI: FSU is taking more points
here today than in any game in our database, dating back to 1980.
They are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 19 or more in that span.) Not so today.
We're not saying that Fresno won't come out and play the Tigers
tough but the Bulldogs sure haven't shown any evidence of that
capability. The loss at Utah State certifi es that this Fresno is nothing
like the other Fresnos that made us so much money. Last week's
hammering by Hawaii confi rms those thoughts. LSU could roll.
IOWA ST over Texas Tech by 3
Iowa State doesn't do as well against the Big 12 as most people
seem to think. The Cyclones have won only three times in the
last 23 games against Big Twelve winning teams, with just eight
covers in those 23 tries. However, as bad as Iowa State has been in
league play, Texas Tech has been equally stinky on the road. The
Red Raiders are 7-20 SU on the road against .400 or better league
opposition and have one cover as road chalk in that role in the
last eight years. ONE. Us, we want the other one.
OKLAHOMA ST over Texas A&M by 6
Texas Tech's road troubles pale in comparison to the woes endured
by Texas A&M, who came up big for us last week as our College
False Favorite Game of the Month selection over Missouri. Today
is, though, a different story. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS on the road
into conference revenge, 6-22 ATS on the road against winning
teams and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games overall. Oklahoma
State hasn't really beaten anybody good this season, although the
effort put forth at Kansas State and Kansas in the last two weeks,
indicates some talent. If the Cowboys are taking, so are we.
MISSOURI over Kansas St by 8
The Tigers have easily been the best team in the Big Twelve North
and fi gure to be able to handle the Wildcats without too much
trouble. But Missouri is returning home off a demanding Texas Two
Step, at Texas Tech and at Texas A&M, and may be a little bit less
enthusiastic this week, especially with 'bubble-burst' lurking in the
air. When was the last time you saw a 16-point underdog who had
beaten its opponent 13 times in a row? We didn't think so. (They
were also double-digit favorites in 11 of those 13 contests). That's
why the Wildcats made our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK.
OKLAHOMA over Colorado by 13
The news about Adrian Peterson had to be devastating for the
Sooners but Oklahoma football will go on and Colorado will face
a fi red-up band of Sooners on this day. The Buffaloes have covered
just fi ve times in their last 31 SU losses. Considering that they
haven't won a road game all season and that Oklahoma hasn't
lost at home yet, we don't like Colorado's chances.
UAB over Marshall by 11
Marshall has covered just once in its last 11 road games against
opponents who are playing with revenge and are 10-23 ATS in
its last 23 league road games. We were impressed with the UAB
ground blitz against Memphis and, should something like that
happen again, Marshall could be in trouble: Our database tells us
that Marshall is 6-20 ATS in the 26 road games in which the Herd
allowed 150 or more ground yards.
CLEMSON over Georgia Tech by 7
Whenever these two get together you had better start looking for
the Milk Bones. In the last ten meetings, the underdog has cashed
every ticket, with nine of the games decided by fi ve or less points.
Tech has other dog credentials such as 13-6 ATS against avenging
opponents and 7-2 ATS in its last nine tries as a road dog. Given
those underdog numbers, you might have already suspected that
the home team is just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Boston College over FLORIDA ST by 1
It didn't surprise us that Boston College beat Virginia Tech but we
were a little bit shocked that the Eagles did it so easily. Florida
State has two convincing wins this season, against Rice and
against Duke. The other games were come from behind wins
against Miami and Troy, and losses to Clemson and NC State. The
Seminoles are nothing special. Special is Boston College as a road
underdog (43-24 ATS in their last 69 in that role), including 7-1
ATS when taking 17 or less against a winning team. Amazingly,
FSU is just 5-6 SU in its last 11 games. Do you think it's time to
send Jeff packing, Bobby?
Hawaii over N MEXICO ST by 17
If you like grind-it-out, defensive fi eld position football, stay as
far away from this game as you can get. To these two teams, good
fi eld position is defi ned as inside the stadium. Hawaii should win
the game. The Rainbows are better at the passing game and are
better defensively. If that's something you're buying, then buy a
ticket on the Pineapples. They are 23-3 ATS in their last 26 SU road
wins. New Mexico State is 0-9 ATS vs WAC foes last nine.
Tulsa over MEMPHIS by 18
Tulsa proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is not the least
bit fazed by the C-USA road. Against a red-hot East Carolina team,
the Hurricanes went right into Greenville and smoked the host
Pirates. This was going on while Memphis was coming from ahead
against the Sun Belt's Arkansas State. Tulsa is 10-1 ATS in its last 11
road games and has covered four in a row in Memphis.
Air Force over SAN DIEGO ST by 17
After its disappointing loss to Navy, we thought that Air Force
would be fl atter than Mark Mangino's Lay-Z-Boy and it was – for
a half. But, like all military teams, the Pilots didn't give up and
rallied back from 18 down at the half to wind up winning last
week's game against Colorado State. Injuries have ruined the
Aztecs' season. Air Force is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road wins vs
foes off BB losses.
Boise St over IDAHO by 13
In the battle for the Golden Potato Masher, we have an inkling
that Boise might win the game. The Broncos have won the last
fi ve meetings by an average of 31 points per game and are 53-17
ATS in the last 70 games in which they scored at least 28. Idaho
would love to win this game and maybe someday it will, but this
is not the year. Nonetheless, the Broncos are another of those
undefeated roadies playing their tentative best not to lose.
Oregon over WASHINGTON ST by 5
Oregon jumped out early against our UCLA 5★ play last week and
never let the Bruins back in the game. It was a big game for the
Ducks but, since they've already lost at California, so is this. We love
the way this Washington State team battles every week but, when
you go against an offensive machine like Oregon, you need all of
your weapons and, right now, Wazzu doesn't. Attractive home dog
if the Puma get Jason Hill, their ace WR, back. Wazzu is 24-8 ATS
here as a dog in games they score 21-plus points, including 17-2
ATS when seeking revenge. Let's wait on this one...
ADDED GAMES
ARKANSAS ST over N Texas by 11
Arkansas State had been waiting all year to get at the Memphis
Tigers and the Indians took advantage of the opportunity. This
will be a fl at spot. However, there is no spot fl at enough to get us
on North Texas on the road. The Not-so-mean Green has lost six
straight away from home, fi ve of them by at least 20 points.
Mid Tenn St over LA MONROE by 4
Middle Tennessee has covered eight of its last ten road games
with revenge and has just one loss, last year by three points, to
Monroe to go with four wins over the past fi ve years. Monroe is
just 1-8 ATS at home against avenging opponents and but 6-3 ATS
in its last nine tries as home dogs. Tough call.
Sunday, October 22nd
S Florida over CINCINNATI by 3
While Cincinnati was strapping on Louisville, South Florida was
waltzing through Carolina virtually unopposed. You can't have
more diverse opposition than. The question is, can the Bearcats
rebound from that close-but-no-cigar emotional effort to take on
the surging Bulls? One thing is for sure, South Florida has the best
QB on the fi eld. That, and a few points, usually gets you a win.
Playbook (NFL) -
5* BEST BET
Philadelphia over TAMPA BAY by 14
Before playing the Saints last week, the Eagles were 22-10 SU
in their last 32 non-division road games with 21 covers in the
mix, including a sparkling 9-3 ATS log in their last 12. Tampa is
struggling this season, winning on the fi nal play of the game
for the fi rst time last week against the defenseless Bengals.
Do the Eagles remember the home loss to Tampa in the 2002
playoffs and 17-0 home loss to Bucs to open the 2003 season?
Maybe. We do know Philly head coach Andy Reid is 17-6 ATS
away off a loss in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS off a SU
favorite loss (5-0 ATS when favored). Pay Day in the Bay.
4* BEST BET
KANSAS CITY over San Diego by 6
Despite San Diego's road success over the last few years, the
Chargers have never viewed Kansas City as their favorite road
trip. One SU & ATS win in the last nine visits to the Barbecue
Pit is all San Diego could manage. This trip won't be any
easier. With Trent Green back (check status) and the Chiefs
playing Herm Edwards defense, the Chargers better pack their
lunches. Disparate results from last week lend great value to
the host. KC's 9-1 ATS home dog log against foes off back-toback
SUATS wins doesn't hurt, either. Bolts blow a fuse.
3* BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over Washington by 1
Everyone agrees that the Colt rush defense is its Achilles heel
but no one on the Colt staff seems to have the answer. Enter
Washington, a strong running team with a good enough
defense to keep Peyton Manning in check and a home-run
hitting wide receiver to keep the Colts from stacking against
the run. Indy doesn't lose many home games, we know that,
but this number is simply a little too high for our tastes. It's not
often you fi nd a double-digit NFL dog that was a double-digit
favorite the previous week (they are 7-2 ATS since 1980). With
only one of the Colts' fi ve wins by more than seven points this
season, and Washington wounded after last week's shocker
against Tennessee, the points become the play here today.
Jacksonville over HOUSTON by 8
With one win in their last 15 tries (a 21-0 win at Jacksonville in
2004) against winning teams, the Texans won't be at the top of
our list this week. The well-rested Jags have also held four of their
fi ve foes to season low yards this season. But, Jack is a lowly 1-9-1
ATS as road chalk off a non-division home win and 1-6 ATS in its
last seven tries as October favorites into revenge. No thanks.
New England over BUFFALO by 6
New England has pretty much owned the Bills. The Pats are 11-1
SU in the last 12 meetings and a phenomenal 16-3-1 ATS in the
second meeting of the season over the last two decades (beat
Buffi e in season opener this year). Forget revenge. Division home
teams with revenge against the Patriots have covered once in the
last eight opportunities. Still, we think the gap is closing between
these two AFC East rivals and, despite the Pats' 9-0-1 ATS mark in
division games before back-to-back non-division contests, we are
just a bit hesitant to lay points in this situation.
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA by 3
Despite starting this season with losses at Jacksonville and at San
Diego, Pittsburgh remains the premier road team in the NFL.
The Steelers are 16-4 SU in their last 20, including 7-2 ATS as an
underdog (check line). Atlanta is 4-18 at home off a home game,
including 1-12 ATS versus a foe off a win and 1-10 ATS as a dog.
Worse yet, in their NFL history, the Falcons are 1-11-1 SU all-time
against the Black and Gold.
MIAMI over Green Bay by 6
It's sad for us to see Brett Favre struggle like he has but, to his and
his team's credit, the Packers are still playing hard. That could be
enough to get the cover against a Miami team who is a woeful 1-11
ATS in its last dozen tries as home favorites of -3 or more. Miami's
defense, however, is in the top fi ve in the league. Green Bay's
is better than only Houston's. Dolphin receivers dropped seven
crucial passes in last week's loss to the Jets as this team continues
to shoot itself in the foot. Amputation may be in the offi ng.
NY JETS over Detroit by 1
Here we go again with the Lions on the road. Five wins in their
last 43 trips is the what the Lions have managed since the start of
the 2001 season and, with the plethora of injuries at key positions
suffered recently, they don't fi gure to improve that awful road
record. Nevertheless, the Jets don't rebound well after playing
Miami (0-6 ATS last six) and, in their last three tries as a favorite
against NFC teams, they lost all three outright. Surprisingly, the
Lions owns the better rushing stats.
Carolina over CINCINNATI by 3
Going against one of the best dogs in the NFL (Carolina 20-4 ATS
last 24) with a superior defense is not something we're in the habit
of doing and we're not doing it here. Carolina started slowly this
season but has improved every week. They are 4-0 SU with star
WR Steve Smith in the lineup this season. Cincinnati started fast
but is slipping. Take the points.
Denver over CLEVELAND by 6
The Broncos rarely lose to losing teams. With the exception of
season openers where nobody is a winner or a loser, the Broncos
are 21-5 SU in their last 26 against sub .500 clubs. That makes
things tough for the Browns because Denver is 84-9 ATS in its
last 93 SU road wins. Still, Cleveland showed its mettle against a
similar team (Baltimore) on this fi eld earlier and the Browns are 7-2
ATS in their last nine against non-division AFC foes. We think the
Broncos could possibly be more focused on their next two games
(Colts and Steelers) than they might be here today.
SEATTLE over Minnesota by 7
The Vikings had an extra week to prepare for the Seattle offense
but their history against this division is terrible. They are 0-6 SU in
their last six on the road against NFC West and 0-10 ATS in their last
ten. Seattle, though, has just one cover in its last nine tries against
rested teams. One thing's for sure, Minnesota will need more than
one TD, its average production this season, to cover this.
OAKLAND over Arizona by 1
Although Oakland is a perfect 0-9 ATS in its last nine as home dogs
and 3-19-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a division road game,
we're not going to hurry to the Arizona window. The Cardinals
have one cover in their last seven tries as road chalk and just three
wins in their last 31 road games with only eight covers. Sooner or
later, Oakland is going to break through with a win...
Monday, October 23rd
DALLAS over NY Giants by 3
In one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, it is essential that you
protect your home fi eld, particularly in division games, and Dallas
has the numbers to do just that. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS at home
with revenge in October and 8-2 ATS at home off a non-conference
game. The rejuvenated G-Men are 7-1 ATS on the road in October
off back-to-back wins and covers. But this game is about more
than numbers. Both teams have to win to stay in step within the
division. We're still looking for a solid edge.
OVER / UNDERS
5* Panthers/Bengals OVER
4* Cardinals/Raiders OVER
3* Chargers/Chiefs UNDER