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Marc Lawrence
IOWA over N Illinois by 14
Iowa is not as good as past Hawkeye editions but there is no
less courage and tenacity on this team than on the better Iowa
clubs. They battled a better Michigan squad tooth-n-nail before
succumbing late in the contest last week, thanks to an eye-raising
call by the Zebras on the Wolves' fi nal drive. A win here will go
toward improving Iowa's bowl prospects and the Hawkeyes will
get it. But a blowout win is not a sure thing. Iowa left a ton of
emotion on the fi eld in Ann Arbor and could be a bit unfocused
on this day. NIU tries and plays hard. Kirk Ferentz's 15-2 ATS mark
as a double-digit home favorite keeps us at bay.
Thursday, October 26th
Clemson over VIRGINIA TECH by 3
Since 1990, Virginia Tech has been a home dog eleven times. That
tells you what kind of program this school has. That they covered
all but one of those 11 games tells you what kind of coach they
have. Tech will play as hard as they can and open the playbook
as wide as they can to try to derail the Tigers. The only problem
for the Hokies is that Clemson is better, especially at the QB
position. Still, won't fade VPI on its home fi eld in this situation,
not with Clemmie off that big double-revenge win over Georgia
Tech last week.
TULSA over Texas El Paso by 17
It's no secret that Tulsa has had this game circled on its calendar
since last November. A 41-38 loss to the Miners was the only blip
in a 7-1 fi nish last year and the Hurricanes, to a man, felt that
they gave away the game. Now, they want it back. In case you
haven't noticed, Tulsa has covered 15 of its last 19 games and is
12-0-1 ATS in the last 13 games when scoring 28 or more (which
UTEP's defense allows this year). With the Big Wind allowing just
5.3 PPG on their home turf this year, we can only look their way
tonight.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Buffalo by 36
This is the classic case of the disinterested favorite. Coming off
an emotional game at Florida State and with conference title
contender Wake Forest dead ahead, the Eagles will have little or
no interest in this game. (FYI: teams who upset the Seminoles are
11-20-1 ATS in their next game). It won't cost them in the league
standings or in the national rankings. They'll win the game but
covering that enormous impost is a different story. BC will be
shuffl ing in the scrubeenies as soon as the game is comfortably
put away. Dilemma comes from the SMART BOX telling us to fade
the Bulls. You make the call.
Wake Forest over N CAROLINA by 10
To us, Wake Forest is the most surprising team in the nation and
to us, no one gets more out his players than Jim Grobe. On the
other hand, John Bunting, the coach of one of the country's most
disappointing teams, gets very little out of his players. For that
reason alone, we can't look at the Heels, especially with Wake
standing at 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU conference road wins. Heels
haven't covered (0-8-1 last nine) in a long time and have been
pined and tarred in their last 35 home losses, going 4-31 ATS.
Notre Dame over Navy by 13
The Irish got another of their incredibly fortunate bounces when
Navy QB Brian Hampton's leg bounced into two pieces in the
Rutgers game. Without Hampton, Navy's offense has the speed and
deception of a sinking aircraft carrier. Notre Dame should win this
easily but, with the Irish on a 1-9-1 ATS run, we're not interested
in laying the large number. Despite the fact the Dame is 1-15-1
ATS as a favorite in games off back-to-back wins in which they
are outrushed, we can't honestly look at the other side without
its main torpedo.
VIRGINIA over NC State by 3
The Wolfpack gave its fans a reason to hope with back-to-back
upset wins over Boston College and Florida State but, just as
quickly, dashed those hopes with successive losses to Wake Forest
and Maryland, games it should have won. Now, the defl ated
Wolves travel to rejuvenated Virginia who has rallied behind a
freshman QB to once again be competitive. You know we would
rather have a happy home dog than a sorry road favorite.
Florida St over MARYLAND by 13
How the mighty has fallen. Florida State had its hands full at
home last week when they fell to Boston College, and they've
managed wins in only fi ve of their last 13 games. As such this line
looks loaded with value as we note FSU has been a double-digit
favorite here each of its last six visits, laying an average of more
than 27 PPG! All the numbers say Florida State, too, including the
8-3 ATS log in the last 11 meetings with the Terps and the 13-1 SU
mark in the last 14. With a win here, Bobby's boys return home
for four straight games to conclude the season where they'll be
aching to make things right on the reservation. Toss in Mary's 1-14
ATS mark in their last 15 SU home losses and we've got our Value
City game of the week.
CINCINNATI over Syracuse by 10
Syracuse played Louisville tough for a half before breaking down
after the break and succumbing to the relentless Louisville pressure
on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati did exactly the same thing
two weeks ago. However, the Bearcats did it in Louisville and they
fi nished a lot closer to a win than the Orange did. No exCuse for
the Juicemen's 0-12 ATS log as a conference road dog of 11 or
less points. Because of that and Cincinnati's superior offense and
defense, we can only look at the Queen City kids in this one.
MICHIGAN over Northwestern by 34
After fi nally putting together their fi rst solid half of football
(actually two and one half quarters) in weeks and building a
seemingly comfortable 28-point lead against decaying Michigan
State, the Wildcats' worst nightmare was realized. They blew
it. They'll have no such luxury (big lead) in this game and can't
honestly be expected to have much energy. Still, not interested in
a Michigan team that will be on cruise control here.
WISCONSIN over Illinois by 20
The Badgers could have fallen into a trap at Purdue last week but,
instead, continued to play shut down-defense while scoring more
than enough to win and cover against the Boilers. More of the
same might be coming here. But that line is a mountain and Juice
Williams has enough weapons to sneak in the back door, if Zook
doesn't get in the way. The truth is the Illini are a lot better than
their 2-6 SU record indicates as they've actually won the stats on
six occasions. The problem is Wisky's aforementioned defense.
Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
The Spartans saw the 2005 late season collapse being reenacted on
the fi eld in Evanston last week and fi nally showed some character.
Down, 31-3, Michigan State outscored Northwestern 38-7 over the
last quarter and a half to even up at 4-4 on the year. It marked the
biggest comeback in NCAA Division 1-A history. While that was
going on, Indiana was watching its recent resurgence get blown to
pieces in Columbus. With a slight edge in talent and a huge edge
in momentum, we lean to the momentarily revitalized Spartans.
Bowling Green over TEMPLE by 16
Struggling Bowling Green is probably looking forward to playing
winless Temple. The BeeGees had high hopes for this season until
the injury bug decimated them. They still have more talent than
the sorry Owls. If Temple could muster enough emotion to win
a game this year, this might be it. The Hooters were massacred
70-7 last year by BG and would love to return the favor. A 63-
point Temple win is out of the question. A Temple win is not.
Remember, the Owls are 9-0-1 ATS as double-digit home dogs
versus an opponent off a double-digit loss.
Vanderbilt over DUKE by 10
Duke laid it all on the line against a Miami team that continues
to embarrass its alumni on a regular basis. The Dukies just missed.
They were on the Miami three with three seconds left before
throwing a game-ending interception. Still, the Blue Devils are
1-9 ATS in their last ten non-ACC home games and currently on a
3-26 SU run. Vanderbilt's one cover as a road favorite since 2001
was here. Vandy is 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU road wins. Then again,
Vandy as a double-digit road favorite??
AIR FORCE over Byu by 3
This is the next Game of the Year for the Air Force. The fi rst
one was a 24-17 loss to Navy. The next one after this is the
November 11th date with Notre Dame. The Force is 8-1 ATS
as conference home dogs and 29-6 ATS as a dog in games in
which they outrush their opponent, including 14-1 ATS when
seeking revenge (Check our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
on page 3 for more on this subject). BYU checks in at 3-15 ATS
in its last 18 games against .500 or better avengers. We'll fade
the Stormin' Mormons off their homecoming romp.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
MIAMI OH over Ball St by 6
Two of the league's most dynamic QB's face off here. Miami's
Mike Kokal is the league's total offense leader and Nate Davis of
BSU was recently atop the nation's pass effi ciency standings. The
difference here is Miami's defense, 130-some yards more stingy
than Ball State's. The RedHawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as
home chalk and 47-17 ATS in their last 64 SU wins. They're also
9-0 ATS in Game 9's the last nine seasons.
KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 7
Two middle of the pack Big Twelve teams that are struggling to
get to a bowl, any bowl, meet in Manhattan today. Iowa State is
8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 as road dogs and has turned the tide in the
series. After losing four in a row to K-State by an average of 45
points each, the Cyclones have won the last two meetings by 14
and 28 points.
4 BEST BET
Texas was lucky as hell to beat Nebraska last week. The Horns
got a game-winning fi eld goal following a Nebraska fumble
as the Huskers were trying to run out the clock and close
the game. They know it and so do we (The Huskers were
our PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY OF THE YEAR). That makes their
current run 31-2 SU, including 16 road win in a row. Don't tell
anyone, but these are not your typical Red Raiders runabouts.
Texas Tech has held six opponents to season low-yardage this
season. They also own the nation's 3rd ranked passing offense
which fi ts rather nicely into Texas' 83rd ranked pass defense.
Last year's 52-17 setback in Austin was the 3rd-worst of head
coach Mike Leach's career. He remembers it, as we recall our
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK (page 2), too. Short Horns.
TEXAS TECH over Texas by 6
3 BEST BET
The Gators are coming off a loss in which they didn't allow
a single offensive touchdown and will be extremely angry
here. Florida coach Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back
games since the 2002 season at Bowling Green and we don't
think he'll lose this. Still, Mark Richt is very good at getting
his team to play competitively away from the 'hedges' where
his troops are 26-8 SU & 20-13-1 ATS away from Athens,
including 3-0 ATS as dogs of four or more points. Furthermore,
double-digit conference dogs with a win percentage of .600
or better, playing off three consecutive ATS losses, are 26-11
ATS when coming off a conference clash. While the Dawgs
have struggled of late, Florida's slippage is more dramatic
considering their team net yardage is down 145 YPG over
their last three games as opposed to their fi rst four. Grab the
points in this overlay.
Florida over Georgia by 3
Army over TULANE by 1
Let's fi rst dismiss an idea of an Army look-ahead to Air Force. The
Cadets are 7-0 ATS in the last seven games immediately preceding
a game with the Pilots and need every win they can muster. We
cannot dismiss the fact that the Soldiers have scored just 16 ppg
on the road this year or that Tulane is 20-4-2 ATS at home when
holding its opponent to 21 or less. Tulane's Lester Ricard is the
best player on the fi eld. Bottom line is we can't trust the Wave in
their fi rst favorite role of the season.
Texas A&M over BAYLOR by 1
The Aggies are a home-loving crew and the anticipation of playing
their next two games at home sometimes leads to fl at efforts
on the road. To be specifi c, Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS on the road
with a pair of home games on deck. Baylor, though, is just 13-26
ATS at home with revenge and 24-43 ATS in its last 67 tries as an
avenging underdog. Still, with the Aggies having slipped 73 YPG
net in Games 5-8, we'll set the trap with the Bears here today.
PURDUE over Penn St by 3
Purdue's offense was throttled by Wisconsin and, if the
Boilermakers don't watch out, Penn State might do the same. The
Lion defense gives up ground grudgingly and has allowed just 17
ppg in conference play since the start of the 2004 season. Purdue
has covered only seven of its last 20 league games and only six
wins against winning conference teams in its last 20 games. Penn
State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten SU wins. Purdue "D" is horrible, but
we must still respect Joe Tiller's mission-dog role.
OHIO ST over Minnesota by 31
Ohio State just takes these Big Ten "other guys" and abuses them
mercilessly. After two thrilling victories over Illinois and Iowa,
Indiana went strutting into Columbus and limped home a 44-3
loser. The Hoosiers never had a chance. Minnesota is better than
Indiana, but not much. The Gophers are a stunning 10-1 ATS as
double-digit dogs against foes who are off BB SUATS wins but a
miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 SU losses. And if you hadn't
fi gured it out yet, Jim Tressel is the answer to this week's TRIVIA
TEASER
W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 17
Western would have rather played this game three weeks ago
when the Emus were without QB Tyler Jones. The kid makes a
difference and you will see Eastern's offensive numbers increase
from here on out. It might not be enough against the rock-solid
Bronco defense, currently ranked as the nation's 15th-best,
especially since Western Michigan has a pretty good QB of its
own. While this looks to be a lot of points to lay in a blood
rivalry we'll do it with Western's 7-0 ATS mark as home chalk
off a SUATS win.
Auburn over MISSISSIPPI by 16
Unlike the home dog below, this one has no redeeming graces.
Ole Miss has lost and failed to cover each of the last fi ve meetings
with Auburn in Oxford and has just three wins in its last 18 SEC
games, including 12 straight losses against opponents who are
better than .400. Auburn may have turned the corner with
that win over Florida but this is a team who can lose badly to
outmatched opponents on occasion. In other words, Aubbie can't
be trusted, even against a Rebel that is 0-8 ATS at home off a
SUATS conference loss.
Tennessee over S CAROLINA by 7
South Carolina has only two wins over Tennessee in the last 14
meetings (one last year in Knoxville as 13-point dogs) and doesn't
appear to have the fi repower to win this. The Gamecocks have
faced two of the SEC's elite, both at home, and lost by seven and
eighteen points. Tennessee 9-3 ATS in its last dozen tries as road
favorites and 47-13 ATS in its last 60 SEC road wins. Carolina has
shown a little more spunk with Syvelle Newton at QB but the
bottom line is this is major revenge and the Vols have the horses
to pull the plow. Look for the visiting team to improve to 8-1 ATS
in this series.
Southern Cal over OREGON ST by 10
After piling up 50 against Arkansas in the season opener, it looked
like Southern Cal hadn't lost a piston from last year's high scoring
machine. Since then, the Trojans haven't topped 28 and the wins
have been tenuous to say the least. However, USC has had tons
of success on this fi eld with only one loss since 1963 here and the
Trojans are 30-6-3 ATS in their last 39 SU road wins off an ATS loss.
Don't know if we want this home Beaver, yet we're not enthralled
with this overused prophylactic either.
WASHINGTON over Arizona St by 1
Washington was on a little bit of a roll and full of confi dence
until Oregon State came to town and whipped the Huskies from
start to fi nish. Now, after another loss at California, the Dogs limp
home to face an equally disappointed team in Arizona State. The
numbers are horrible on both sides. Washington is 4-14-1 ATS in
its last 19 tries as home chalk and Arizona State is just 7-13 ATS in
its last 20 away games. You can pick your poison here.
KENT ST over Ohio by 10
Who's the hottest team in the MAC? It's Kent, without a
doubt. The Golden Gang rebounded from back-to-back losses
to Minnesota and Army to open the season with fi ve straight
wins to go to the top of the league standings. The reason is
Justin Edelman. The dual-threat sophomore QB gives Kent
State a chance to win against any conference opponent. That
also gives KSU a chance to cover here. Ohio is 1-13 ATS in its
last 14 SU losses and 0-6 ATS away off back-to-back wins. Flash:
lay the points!
UTAH over Unlv by 24
If Unlv could pick the spot on its schedule when it wanted to play
Utah, we doubt very seriously if this would be it. The Utes are not
only the best play within this week's SMART BOX, they are also
back home steaming after back-to-back road losses at Wyoming
and at New Mexico. In the latter loss, Utah blew a 24-3 lead in one
of its worst conference losses in recent history. Since Utah is 85-20-1
ATS in its last 106 SU wins and has beaten Unlv ten times in a row,
there is no cause to play this Rebel. Johnny Yuma - RIP.
NEVADA over New Mexico St by 20
Nevada has made trips to Reno anything but fun for its opponents.
The Wolfpack is 12-2 SU and ATS in its last 14 home games and,
going into last week's game with San Jose State, was a perfect
12-0 ATS in its last dozen home wins. New Mexico State has an
exciting offense but the Aggies can't stop anybody and usually
fall to pieces (2-6 ATS last eight) on the road. Can only trust the
numbers and the superior team in this.
MARSHALL over Memphis by 7
One of the more humorous stories in college football this year
is the Joe Lee Dunn dismissal. Tommy West, the Memphis coach,
was so distraught after the Tigers blew a big lead at East Carolina
that he fi red Dunn, his defensive coordinator. Since then, Memphis
has allowed 1414 yards and 102 points - and that doesn't even
count the Tulsa game. However, until Marshall's win and cover
against UAB last Saturday, the Herd hasn't cashed a ticket since
last November. No thanks.
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 6
The loss of three defensive starters during the Air Force game hurts
an already suspect Colorado State defense. With the blooming of
New Mexico's new starting QB Donovan Porterie, who threw for
350 yards and three touchdowns in the Lobo's comeback win over
Utah, the Rams need all the help they can get on the stop unit. The
Wolves are 8-0 ATS as road dogs of +3 or more off back-to-back
wins and are perfectly capable of the upset today. This just in from
ItsHotAsHellDownHere.com - the last 6 games in this series have
been decided by an average 6.66 PPG!
SAN JOSE ST over LA Tech by 10
With Jose standing at 31-2 ATS in its last 33 SU wins, you'd better
think that Louisiana Tech is going to win the game before you
back the Bulldogs. Since Tech is 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS in its last
19 road games, that would be a diffi cult assumption to make. It
becomes even more diffi cult when you learn that Jose is 17-4 SU
and 15-6 ATS as a favorite, including 9-1 ATS in its last ten tries as
chalk. Do we know the way? We might.
MISSISSIPPI ST over Kentucky by 3
If you look at these two from an offensive perspective, Kentucky
wins in a rout. But, as you well know, there are two sides to the
line of scrimmage and Mississippi State is far better on the other
side. Kentucky has only fi ve SEC wins in its last 23 games under
Rich Brooks but two of them are against this team. Mississippi
State has four SEC wins in its last 37 tries, one against Kentucky.
These two go at each other like Cats and Dawgs.
HOUSTON over C Florida by 10
Last year, Houston was unable to stop Central Florida's running
game and lost by two in Orlando. That might be the case again as
the Cougar run defense ranks 69th in the nation and has been torn
to pieces by the lesser running games of LA Lafayette and Southern
Miss. While the Knights haven't been all that Golden this season,
they fi t the bill in this week's LEAN ON ME handicapping article on
page 2. Houie's 3-14 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in games
off a SUATS win (8 straight losses) anchors those thoughts.
TOLEDO over Akron by 3
At the beginning of the season, we fi gured both of these teams to
be in the MAC title hunt. Instead, they are the league's two most
disappointing teams. Toledo is 7-1 ATS at home off back-to-back
road games but the Rockets have played nothing like the teams
that posted those marks. Nonetheless, since that win at NC State,
Akron has been anything but impressive and they have lost fi ve in
a row in this series. Should've been the league's most important
game of the year. It's not.
Miami FL over GEORGIA TECH by 1
Talk about a revenge game! Last year, Georgia Tech went buzzing
into Miami as an 18-point underdog and beat the Canes 14-10
stopping a eight-game Hurricane winning streak. Now, Miami gets
a chance to return the favor and, with the one-game suspensions
already served, will have a full complement of weapons. That
doesn't mean that the Bumblebees will be outmatched. Calvin
Johnson outmatches everyone he plays against - and he was shut
out last week! Nonetheless, the media-battered Canes are 5-1
SUATS as a dog under Larry Coker and need a convincing win.
Oklahoma over MISSOURI by 3
The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and
the Sooners have been the favorite in all but three of the last
30 meetings, 27 of which they won. Missouri still hasn't proven
anything to us. The Tigers rode a bushel of turnover touchdowns
to a win at Texas Tech and lost at Texas A&M. Those are the only
two winning teams Mizzou has faced this season. Oklahoma will
come without its main weapon, though. They'll need to ride a
defense that has held its last four foes to season low yards.
Colorado over KANSAS by 3
Kansas has won eight straight home games against .333 or worse
opposition and is a powerful 30-2 ATS in its last 32 SU revenge
wins. Colorado is 5-30 ATS in its last 35 SU losses and 4-11 SU in its
last 15 road games against .375 or better opponents. Don't get too
excited about travelling the yellow brick road until you understand
that Colorado is 20-4 SU in this series (last fi ve in a row by nearly
14 points per game) and is vastly superior defensively. Oh yeah,
in those last 24 games in the series they have been the underdog
four times. They won all four straight-up.
Nebraska over OKLAHOMA ST by 4
The Cornhuskers battled defending national champion Texas
tooth-n-nail in Lincoln last week and, one would think, would be
on an emotional downer in this game. But Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in
its last six games following games with Texas and is 8-2 ATS in its
last ten tries as road favorites. Oklahoma State has not played a
team of this caliber this season and might get pushed around a
little bit here. Cowboys 7-4 ATS last 11 as home dogs.
RUTGERS over Connecticut by 17
How about them Knights! They've risen from the ashes to the elite
as they reside atop the Big East conference standings along with
fellow undefeated colleagues Louisville and West Virginia. Rutgers
pushed UConn all over the fi eld last year (won by more than 200
yards) but won by just two points. Rutgers is better than it was
last year. Connecticut isn't. We like the 40-13-1 ATS mark posted
by Rutgers in its last 54 SU wins. The Knights will win this.
Sunday, October 29th
UCLA over Washington St by 3
Two really diffi cult road games might make it hard for Ucla to
come out hard and tough in this spot and it has been both hard
and tough for the Bruins in this series. Washington State has
covered fi ve in a row and has played surprisingly well against
winning competition this season. Ucla has decidedly the better
defensive team (78 YPG) but their stats are beginning to decline.
Bruins chip in at 12-4 ATS as home dogs, including 9-2 ATS against
a foe off a win.
5 BEST BET
TCU dominated the Mountain West last season and every one
of the league's teams is looking for revenge. BYU and Utah
have already gotten theirs. Now, it's Wyoming's turn. What
do the Cowboys bring in the way of credentials? How about
the nation's number one pass defense and third-best overall
defense. They've held no less than six opponents to season
low - or 2nd low - yardage this year while clawing their way
back to the .500 barrier (two overtime losses). The Horned
Frogs have some instability at QB and their defense isn't
nearly as good as Wyoming's. Bad situation for a favorite of
this size. Especially one that is 4-16 ATS as home chalk against
a .666 or less foe seeking revenge, including 0-7 ATS when
the opposition allows less than 25 PPG. Cowboys lasso a win
as another homecoming favorite bites the dust.
Wyoming over TCU by 10
S MISSISSIPPI over E Carolina by 1
Southern Miss has pretty much owned this series with seven covers
in the last eight meetings but the Pirates are better than they've
been in a while and could cause some trouble here. ECU is 7-1
ATS in its last eight tries as a road dog and are a strong 14-4 ATS
under Skip Holtz. James Pinkney is clearly the best QB on the fi eld
and he could make the difference. ECU is coming off a fi ve-game
home stand and that's surely a concern. Bottom line, though, is
we won't fade this revenge-minded pointspread machine.
HAWAII over Idaho by 21
After those two track meets in Fresno and in Las Cruces, Hawaii is
probably glad to be home in Oahu today. Hawaii is 62-13 ATS in its
last 75 SU wins and has covered 9 of the last 12 as home favorites.
Add a 13-2 ATS log in favor of the Rainbows when they post at
least 28 on the board and there might be a potato mashing in
the Pineapple Patch this week. Huge number kind of turns us off,
though, as the Potato Heads are playing their spuds off and are
4-0 ATS in conference play under Dennis Erickson. They were also
smashed, 24-0, by the Grass Skirts last year.
ALABAMA over Florida Int'l by 21
Here's an incredible stat for you: Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last dozen
home games against losing teams and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as home
chalk. Fortunately for the Tide, they catch the Panthers without
several members of their team due to the suspensions meted out
after the "Melee in Miami". Not interested in either side.
TROY over N Texas by 11
This is the epitome of Sun Belt football. North Texas has the worst
offense in Division I football and Troy ranks among the nation's
bottom 25 on both sides of the ball. Since Troy is 36-3 SU in its last
39 home games and North Texas is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 SU losses,
the Trojans would be the side we'd play if we had to choose.
Arkansas St over FLA ATLANTIC by 7
After getting zipped by Louisiana Lafayette, the Owls aren't
looking too good against a surging Arkansas State team. No home
fi eld advantage exists for the Raptors, a fact proven by their 1-6
ATS log in their last seven here, and they have only three SU wins
in their last 14 games. Arkansas State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last
eight SU road wins, so we can't fade the Tribe in this.
Mid Tenn St over LA LAFAYETTE by 6
Middle Tennessee has allowed just six points total in its two league
games this season and will be looking for revenge in Cajun Country
tonight. MTSU 8-2 ATS in its last ten road revenge games and has
had an extra week to get ready for a team that managed only a
pair of fi eld goals against lowly Florida Atlantic last week. With
Lafayette's dismal 1-9 ATS log in its last ten as conference home
chalk, we'll be wearin' our blue jeans to this dance.
ARKANSAS over LA Monroe by 36
Wow! After upsetting Auburn nearly a month ago, the Hogs have
faced Division I-AA SE Missouri, Mississippi and now, Louisiana
Monroe. Tough to fi nd an offense in that bunch. This Monroe team
hasn't hit the 20-point mark all season long and doesn't fi gure to
do so today. Arkansas is 11-4 ATS when allowing less than 21.
TENNESSEE over Houston by 1
Vince Young has given the Titans new energy on both sides of
the ball as evidenced by their near miss in Indianapolis and their
surprising win in Washington. Houston has covered four of the last
fi ve in this series and certainly doesn't fear a Tennessee team that
is 1-7 ATS in its last eight division home games. The now-favored
Titans have been DD dogs each of their last fi ve games.
PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville by 7
Holy mackerel, Andy. What's a team to do? They outgain an
opponent, 506-196, and lose the game on a 62-yard fi eld goal!
Obviously, we'll need to know the status of Byron Leftwich before
we make a defi nitive call here but this game looks like one that
the Jags will have trouble winning. Yes, Jacksonville has been a
creditable underdog with 17 ATS wins in its last 24 appearances
in that role but Philadelphia counters with its 11-3 ATS log when
playing at home off BB road games. Without Leftwich, though,
Jacksonville's chances for a win are severely diminished.
3 BEST BET
Both teams probably needed last week off. After a 4-0 start,
Baltimore dropped back-to-back games against Denver and
Carolina and lost their offensive coordinator in the process.
New Orleans is coming off three straight division games plus
the emotional win over Philadelphia. Baltimore is 0-11 SU in
its last 11 road games against teams with at least one win
and New Orleans is 46-1-1 ATS in its last 48 non-division SU
wins. Mysteriously, Raven head coach Brian Billick dismissed
OC Jim Fassel and now assumes the chore. We've seen that
before. The New Orleans miracle marches on.
NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore by 10
5 BEST BET
Despite last week's win, the Bengals have been slipping a little,
mostly because of injuries to their defense. They've allowed
more yards than they've gained for the season, no thanks to
the league's 8th worst rush defense that allows 4.6 Yards Per
Rush. That defense better get healthy real quick if it wants
to stop the league's top rushing team. That's because in the
last 20 home games in which the Bengals were outrushed
they are 3-17 SU & 1-19 ATS! That's an ominous number for
a favorite with a leaky defense. Atlanta has had some great
moments this year and is in need of another.
Atlanta over CINCINNATI by 13
4 BEST BET
New England looks to be on track for another Super Bowl
run in 2006. Or, are they? They've split out against the two
winning foes they've faced this season while putting the losers
on their slate to sleep in typical Patriots' fashion. However,
Minnesota is a sterling 12-4 ATS as a non-division home dog
in its last 16 chances and is 7-3 ATS as pups under the Monday
night lights. The Vikes bring the better defense and the better
running game into this contest. They've also improved their
net team stats 32 YPG since Game 5 while the Pats have
regressed 55 YPG over the same span. New England dips to
0-8 ATS in October off a double-digit ATS win tonight.
MINNESOTA over New England by 10
Monday, October 30th
NY GIANTS over Tampa Bay by 10
Tampa catches the Giants off a Monday night game at Dallas and
that has always been a good spot for Giant opponents. After
playing in Dallas, New York is 0-8 ATS in its last eight tries. The GMen
are also a miserable 2-11 ATS in October non-division home
games and 0-6 ATS in their last six chances as home chalk of -7
or more. The Bucs, though, are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road
games when those trips were sandwiched between two at home.
Fact is that during Tampa's two-game win streak, they've been
outstatted in both contests – the last by over 300 yards!
CHICAGO over San Francisco by 16
The Forty Niners couldn't have picked a worse time to go out on
the road nor could they have picked a worse place to go. The scare
in Arizona has the Bears practicing feverishly to regain their edge
and they view San Francisco as the quintessential whetstone. In
their last nine regular season home games, the Bears are 9-0 SU
and 8-1 ATS without EVER allowing ten or more points in any one
game. San Fran is 4-39 ATS when held to less than 14. Clincher is
that undefeated home teams, playing at home with a week of
rest, are 14-2 ATS against a foe off a SUATS loss. Despite those
numbers, we're not keen on laying this kind of lumber.
GREEN BAY over Arizona by 4
We've decried Arizona as a terrible road team several times in these
pages and that the Cardinals are. After laying an egg in Oakland
last week, Zona is now 3-19 SU and 8-24 ATS on the road. Green
Bay may not be the better team here but the Packers are 18-1-2
ATS in their last 21 SU non-division wins and are in desperate need
of a home win. If we play this, it won't be with the Cardinals.
KANSAS CITY over Seattle by 3
Kansas City has never been a fun place for division rivals and back
when Seattle was in the same division, the Seahawks performed
miserably on this fi eld. They played 21 games here since 1980
winning only three and covering only fi ve while being favored in
just four of those 21 games (The Hawks lost all four on the fi eld).
Although Seattle isn't even in the same conference anymore, the
numbers don't get better. KC is 17-6 ATS as a non-division home
dog in its last 23 opportunities. Check status of Seahawks' QB Matt
Hasselbeck, who was injured in last week's game vs. Minnesota.
SAN DIEGO over St Louis by 8
Regarded by most experts as the most talented team in the NFL, the
Chargers take on the Rams, a team with no covers in its last seven
games against this division. San Diego has only two covers in the
last dozen game following a battle with division rival Kansas City
but the Chargers are 7-2 ATS as favorites against teams who are
coming off a bye week. Note that the Rams are 6-20 ATS in their
last 26 road games against winning teams when being outrushed,
a virtual certainty here. Problem at hand for San Diego is the loss
of star LB Merriman to suspension of steroid violation. He's the
4th Charger LB to leave the lineup this season.
Pittsburgh over OAKLAND by 7
It could be said that Oakland has little chance to win this game
since the Raiders are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 tries as home
dogs. That probability is magnifi ed by Pittsburgh's 10-1 SU mark
in its last 11 road games against sub .600 teams. Now factor in
the Steelers' 89-6 ATS log in their last 95 SU road wins and this
case becomes nearly crystal clear. The fl y in the ointment is the
fact this home dog actually owns the better defense (32 yards
superior than the Steelers)! This has the aroma of a Pittsburgh
win and an Oakland cover.
CLEVELAND over NY Jets by 3
Other than the game against barefooted Oakland, Cleveland has
been unable to score more than 17 points in any game this year.
The Browns better get more than that today or another ATS loss
is likely. The Jets are 30-3 ATS as an non-division road underdog
or pick when they hold their opponent to 17 or less. Still, we don't
get real excited about the third-worst defense in the NFL on the
road, especially at this number. This fact we know: the Flyboys are
the worst winning team in the NFL and it's only a matter of time
before they pay the piper.
DENVER over Indianapolis by 4
The Colts are a sparkling 22-7 SU on the road since 2003, including
12-5-2 ATS when not favored by six or more. But, in their last fi ve
games as a road underdog, the Ponies are 0-4-1 ATS. Denver, on
the other hand, has just one non-division home loss (to Pittsburgh
in last year's AFC title game) in its last 11 chances and is 5-2 ATS in
the last seven against Indianapolis. The Broncos need the Plummer
to play well here or this one could go right down the drain. A case
of Drain-o may be on the way.
CAROLINA over Dallas by 1
We have documented many times that Carolina's preferred role is
that of the underdog and that the Panthers hover near mediocrity
when made the favorite. Their 4-14-1 ATS log as home chalk of -3
or more testifi es to that. But the Black Cats are also 7-3-1 ATS with
revenge against non-division foes and are at the top of their game
right now. Dallas has had Giant hangovers in the past with just
two covers in its last 11 games after playing the G-Men. Bottom
line is the dog is the way to look here.
IOWA over N Illinois by 14
Iowa is not as good as past Hawkeye editions but there is no
less courage and tenacity on this team than on the better Iowa
clubs. They battled a better Michigan squad tooth-n-nail before
succumbing late in the contest last week, thanks to an eye-raising
call by the Zebras on the Wolves' fi nal drive. A win here will go
toward improving Iowa's bowl prospects and the Hawkeyes will
get it. But a blowout win is not a sure thing. Iowa left a ton of
emotion on the fi eld in Ann Arbor and could be a bit unfocused
on this day. NIU tries and plays hard. Kirk Ferentz's 15-2 ATS mark
as a double-digit home favorite keeps us at bay.
Thursday, October 26th
Clemson over VIRGINIA TECH by 3
Since 1990, Virginia Tech has been a home dog eleven times. That
tells you what kind of program this school has. That they covered
all but one of those 11 games tells you what kind of coach they
have. Tech will play as hard as they can and open the playbook
as wide as they can to try to derail the Tigers. The only problem
for the Hokies is that Clemson is better, especially at the QB
position. Still, won't fade VPI on its home fi eld in this situation,
not with Clemmie off that big double-revenge win over Georgia
Tech last week.
TULSA over Texas El Paso by 17
It's no secret that Tulsa has had this game circled on its calendar
since last November. A 41-38 loss to the Miners was the only blip
in a 7-1 fi nish last year and the Hurricanes, to a man, felt that
they gave away the game. Now, they want it back. In case you
haven't noticed, Tulsa has covered 15 of its last 19 games and is
12-0-1 ATS in the last 13 games when scoring 28 or more (which
UTEP's defense allows this year). With the Big Wind allowing just
5.3 PPG on their home turf this year, we can only look their way
tonight.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Buffalo by 36
This is the classic case of the disinterested favorite. Coming off
an emotional game at Florida State and with conference title
contender Wake Forest dead ahead, the Eagles will have little or
no interest in this game. (FYI: teams who upset the Seminoles are
11-20-1 ATS in their next game). It won't cost them in the league
standings or in the national rankings. They'll win the game but
covering that enormous impost is a different story. BC will be
shuffl ing in the scrubeenies as soon as the game is comfortably
put away. Dilemma comes from the SMART BOX telling us to fade
the Bulls. You make the call.
Wake Forest over N CAROLINA by 10
To us, Wake Forest is the most surprising team in the nation and
to us, no one gets more out his players than Jim Grobe. On the
other hand, John Bunting, the coach of one of the country's most
disappointing teams, gets very little out of his players. For that
reason alone, we can't look at the Heels, especially with Wake
standing at 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU conference road wins. Heels
haven't covered (0-8-1 last nine) in a long time and have been
pined and tarred in their last 35 home losses, going 4-31 ATS.
Notre Dame over Navy by 13
The Irish got another of their incredibly fortunate bounces when
Navy QB Brian Hampton's leg bounced into two pieces in the
Rutgers game. Without Hampton, Navy's offense has the speed and
deception of a sinking aircraft carrier. Notre Dame should win this
easily but, with the Irish on a 1-9-1 ATS run, we're not interested
in laying the large number. Despite the fact the Dame is 1-15-1
ATS as a favorite in games off back-to-back wins in which they
are outrushed, we can't honestly look at the other side without
its main torpedo.
VIRGINIA over NC State by 3
The Wolfpack gave its fans a reason to hope with back-to-back
upset wins over Boston College and Florida State but, just as
quickly, dashed those hopes with successive losses to Wake Forest
and Maryland, games it should have won. Now, the defl ated
Wolves travel to rejuvenated Virginia who has rallied behind a
freshman QB to once again be competitive. You know we would
rather have a happy home dog than a sorry road favorite.
Florida St over MARYLAND by 13
How the mighty has fallen. Florida State had its hands full at
home last week when they fell to Boston College, and they've
managed wins in only fi ve of their last 13 games. As such this line
looks loaded with value as we note FSU has been a double-digit
favorite here each of its last six visits, laying an average of more
than 27 PPG! All the numbers say Florida State, too, including the
8-3 ATS log in the last 11 meetings with the Terps and the 13-1 SU
mark in the last 14. With a win here, Bobby's boys return home
for four straight games to conclude the season where they'll be
aching to make things right on the reservation. Toss in Mary's 1-14
ATS mark in their last 15 SU home losses and we've got our Value
City game of the week.
CINCINNATI over Syracuse by 10
Syracuse played Louisville tough for a half before breaking down
after the break and succumbing to the relentless Louisville pressure
on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati did exactly the same thing
two weeks ago. However, the Bearcats did it in Louisville and they
fi nished a lot closer to a win than the Orange did. No exCuse for
the Juicemen's 0-12 ATS log as a conference road dog of 11 or
less points. Because of that and Cincinnati's superior offense and
defense, we can only look at the Queen City kids in this one.
MICHIGAN over Northwestern by 34
After fi nally putting together their fi rst solid half of football
(actually two and one half quarters) in weeks and building a
seemingly comfortable 28-point lead against decaying Michigan
State, the Wildcats' worst nightmare was realized. They blew
it. They'll have no such luxury (big lead) in this game and can't
honestly be expected to have much energy. Still, not interested in
a Michigan team that will be on cruise control here.
WISCONSIN over Illinois by 20
The Badgers could have fallen into a trap at Purdue last week but,
instead, continued to play shut down-defense while scoring more
than enough to win and cover against the Boilers. More of the
same might be coming here. But that line is a mountain and Juice
Williams has enough weapons to sneak in the back door, if Zook
doesn't get in the way. The truth is the Illini are a lot better than
their 2-6 SU record indicates as they've actually won the stats on
six occasions. The problem is Wisky's aforementioned defense.
Michigan St over INDIANA by 7
The Spartans saw the 2005 late season collapse being reenacted on
the fi eld in Evanston last week and fi nally showed some character.
Down, 31-3, Michigan State outscored Northwestern 38-7 over the
last quarter and a half to even up at 4-4 on the year. It marked the
biggest comeback in NCAA Division 1-A history. While that was
going on, Indiana was watching its recent resurgence get blown to
pieces in Columbus. With a slight edge in talent and a huge edge
in momentum, we lean to the momentarily revitalized Spartans.
Bowling Green over TEMPLE by 16
Struggling Bowling Green is probably looking forward to playing
winless Temple. The BeeGees had high hopes for this season until
the injury bug decimated them. They still have more talent than
the sorry Owls. If Temple could muster enough emotion to win
a game this year, this might be it. The Hooters were massacred
70-7 last year by BG and would love to return the favor. A 63-
point Temple win is out of the question. A Temple win is not.
Remember, the Owls are 9-0-1 ATS as double-digit home dogs
versus an opponent off a double-digit loss.
Vanderbilt over DUKE by 10
Duke laid it all on the line against a Miami team that continues
to embarrass its alumni on a regular basis. The Dukies just missed.
They were on the Miami three with three seconds left before
throwing a game-ending interception. Still, the Blue Devils are
1-9 ATS in their last ten non-ACC home games and currently on a
3-26 SU run. Vanderbilt's one cover as a road favorite since 2001
was here. Vandy is 24-2 ATS in its last 26 SU road wins. Then again,
Vandy as a double-digit road favorite??
AIR FORCE over Byu by 3
This is the next Game of the Year for the Air Force. The fi rst
one was a 24-17 loss to Navy. The next one after this is the
November 11th date with Notre Dame. The Force is 8-1 ATS
as conference home dogs and 29-6 ATS as a dog in games in
which they outrush their opponent, including 14-1 ATS when
seeking revenge (Check our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
on page 3 for more on this subject). BYU checks in at 3-15 ATS
in its last 18 games against .500 or better avengers. We'll fade
the Stormin' Mormons off their homecoming romp.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
MIAMI OH over Ball St by 6
Two of the league's most dynamic QB's face off here. Miami's
Mike Kokal is the league's total offense leader and Nate Davis of
BSU was recently atop the nation's pass effi ciency standings. The
difference here is Miami's defense, 130-some yards more stingy
than Ball State's. The RedHawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as
home chalk and 47-17 ATS in their last 64 SU wins. They're also
9-0 ATS in Game 9's the last nine seasons.
KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 7
Two middle of the pack Big Twelve teams that are struggling to
get to a bowl, any bowl, meet in Manhattan today. Iowa State is
8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 as road dogs and has turned the tide in the
series. After losing four in a row to K-State by an average of 45
points each, the Cyclones have won the last two meetings by 14
and 28 points.
4 BEST BET
Texas was lucky as hell to beat Nebraska last week. The Horns
got a game-winning fi eld goal following a Nebraska fumble
as the Huskers were trying to run out the clock and close
the game. They know it and so do we (The Huskers were
our PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY OF THE YEAR). That makes their
current run 31-2 SU, including 16 road win in a row. Don't tell
anyone, but these are not your typical Red Raiders runabouts.
Texas Tech has held six opponents to season low-yardage this
season. They also own the nation's 3rd ranked passing offense
which fi ts rather nicely into Texas' 83rd ranked pass defense.
Last year's 52-17 setback in Austin was the 3rd-worst of head
coach Mike Leach's career. He remembers it, as we recall our
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK (page 2), too. Short Horns.
TEXAS TECH over Texas by 6
3 BEST BET
The Gators are coming off a loss in which they didn't allow
a single offensive touchdown and will be extremely angry
here. Florida coach Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back
games since the 2002 season at Bowling Green and we don't
think he'll lose this. Still, Mark Richt is very good at getting
his team to play competitively away from the 'hedges' where
his troops are 26-8 SU & 20-13-1 ATS away from Athens,
including 3-0 ATS as dogs of four or more points. Furthermore,
double-digit conference dogs with a win percentage of .600
or better, playing off three consecutive ATS losses, are 26-11
ATS when coming off a conference clash. While the Dawgs
have struggled of late, Florida's slippage is more dramatic
considering their team net yardage is down 145 YPG over
their last three games as opposed to their fi rst four. Grab the
points in this overlay.
Florida over Georgia by 3
Army over TULANE by 1
Let's fi rst dismiss an idea of an Army look-ahead to Air Force. The
Cadets are 7-0 ATS in the last seven games immediately preceding
a game with the Pilots and need every win they can muster. We
cannot dismiss the fact that the Soldiers have scored just 16 ppg
on the road this year or that Tulane is 20-4-2 ATS at home when
holding its opponent to 21 or less. Tulane's Lester Ricard is the
best player on the fi eld. Bottom line is we can't trust the Wave in
their fi rst favorite role of the season.
Texas A&M over BAYLOR by 1
The Aggies are a home-loving crew and the anticipation of playing
their next two games at home sometimes leads to fl at efforts
on the road. To be specifi c, Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS on the road
with a pair of home games on deck. Baylor, though, is just 13-26
ATS at home with revenge and 24-43 ATS in its last 67 tries as an
avenging underdog. Still, with the Aggies having slipped 73 YPG
net in Games 5-8, we'll set the trap with the Bears here today.
PURDUE over Penn St by 3
Purdue's offense was throttled by Wisconsin and, if the
Boilermakers don't watch out, Penn State might do the same. The
Lion defense gives up ground grudgingly and has allowed just 17
ppg in conference play since the start of the 2004 season. Purdue
has covered only seven of its last 20 league games and only six
wins against winning conference teams in its last 20 games. Penn
State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten SU wins. Purdue "D" is horrible, but
we must still respect Joe Tiller's mission-dog role.
OHIO ST over Minnesota by 31
Ohio State just takes these Big Ten "other guys" and abuses them
mercilessly. After two thrilling victories over Illinois and Iowa,
Indiana went strutting into Columbus and limped home a 44-3
loser. The Hoosiers never had a chance. Minnesota is better than
Indiana, but not much. The Gophers are a stunning 10-1 ATS as
double-digit dogs against foes who are off BB SUATS wins but a
miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 SU losses. And if you hadn't
fi gured it out yet, Jim Tressel is the answer to this week's TRIVIA
TEASER
W MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 17
Western would have rather played this game three weeks ago
when the Emus were without QB Tyler Jones. The kid makes a
difference and you will see Eastern's offensive numbers increase
from here on out. It might not be enough against the rock-solid
Bronco defense, currently ranked as the nation's 15th-best,
especially since Western Michigan has a pretty good QB of its
own. While this looks to be a lot of points to lay in a blood
rivalry we'll do it with Western's 7-0 ATS mark as home chalk
off a SUATS win.
Auburn over MISSISSIPPI by 16
Unlike the home dog below, this one has no redeeming graces.
Ole Miss has lost and failed to cover each of the last fi ve meetings
with Auburn in Oxford and has just three wins in its last 18 SEC
games, including 12 straight losses against opponents who are
better than .400. Auburn may have turned the corner with
that win over Florida but this is a team who can lose badly to
outmatched opponents on occasion. In other words, Aubbie can't
be trusted, even against a Rebel that is 0-8 ATS at home off a
SUATS conference loss.
Tennessee over S CAROLINA by 7
South Carolina has only two wins over Tennessee in the last 14
meetings (one last year in Knoxville as 13-point dogs) and doesn't
appear to have the fi repower to win this. The Gamecocks have
faced two of the SEC's elite, both at home, and lost by seven and
eighteen points. Tennessee 9-3 ATS in its last dozen tries as road
favorites and 47-13 ATS in its last 60 SEC road wins. Carolina has
shown a little more spunk with Syvelle Newton at QB but the
bottom line is this is major revenge and the Vols have the horses
to pull the plow. Look for the visiting team to improve to 8-1 ATS
in this series.
Southern Cal over OREGON ST by 10
After piling up 50 against Arkansas in the season opener, it looked
like Southern Cal hadn't lost a piston from last year's high scoring
machine. Since then, the Trojans haven't topped 28 and the wins
have been tenuous to say the least. However, USC has had tons
of success on this fi eld with only one loss since 1963 here and the
Trojans are 30-6-3 ATS in their last 39 SU road wins off an ATS loss.
Don't know if we want this home Beaver, yet we're not enthralled
with this overused prophylactic either.
WASHINGTON over Arizona St by 1
Washington was on a little bit of a roll and full of confi dence
until Oregon State came to town and whipped the Huskies from
start to fi nish. Now, after another loss at California, the Dogs limp
home to face an equally disappointed team in Arizona State. The
numbers are horrible on both sides. Washington is 4-14-1 ATS in
its last 19 tries as home chalk and Arizona State is just 7-13 ATS in
its last 20 away games. You can pick your poison here.
KENT ST over Ohio by 10
Who's the hottest team in the MAC? It's Kent, without a
doubt. The Golden Gang rebounded from back-to-back losses
to Minnesota and Army to open the season with fi ve straight
wins to go to the top of the league standings. The reason is
Justin Edelman. The dual-threat sophomore QB gives Kent
State a chance to win against any conference opponent. That
also gives KSU a chance to cover here. Ohio is 1-13 ATS in its
last 14 SU losses and 0-6 ATS away off back-to-back wins. Flash:
lay the points!
UTAH over Unlv by 24
If Unlv could pick the spot on its schedule when it wanted to play
Utah, we doubt very seriously if this would be it. The Utes are not
only the best play within this week's SMART BOX, they are also
back home steaming after back-to-back road losses at Wyoming
and at New Mexico. In the latter loss, Utah blew a 24-3 lead in one
of its worst conference losses in recent history. Since Utah is 85-20-1
ATS in its last 106 SU wins and has beaten Unlv ten times in a row,
there is no cause to play this Rebel. Johnny Yuma - RIP.
NEVADA over New Mexico St by 20
Nevada has made trips to Reno anything but fun for its opponents.
The Wolfpack is 12-2 SU and ATS in its last 14 home games and,
going into last week's game with San Jose State, was a perfect
12-0 ATS in its last dozen home wins. New Mexico State has an
exciting offense but the Aggies can't stop anybody and usually
fall to pieces (2-6 ATS last eight) on the road. Can only trust the
numbers and the superior team in this.
MARSHALL over Memphis by 7
One of the more humorous stories in college football this year
is the Joe Lee Dunn dismissal. Tommy West, the Memphis coach,
was so distraught after the Tigers blew a big lead at East Carolina
that he fi red Dunn, his defensive coordinator. Since then, Memphis
has allowed 1414 yards and 102 points - and that doesn't even
count the Tulsa game. However, until Marshall's win and cover
against UAB last Saturday, the Herd hasn't cashed a ticket since
last November. No thanks.
COLORADO ST over New Mexico by 6
The loss of three defensive starters during the Air Force game hurts
an already suspect Colorado State defense. With the blooming of
New Mexico's new starting QB Donovan Porterie, who threw for
350 yards and three touchdowns in the Lobo's comeback win over
Utah, the Rams need all the help they can get on the stop unit. The
Wolves are 8-0 ATS as road dogs of +3 or more off back-to-back
wins and are perfectly capable of the upset today. This just in from
ItsHotAsHellDownHere.com - the last 6 games in this series have
been decided by an average 6.66 PPG!
SAN JOSE ST over LA Tech by 10
With Jose standing at 31-2 ATS in its last 33 SU wins, you'd better
think that Louisiana Tech is going to win the game before you
back the Bulldogs. Since Tech is 5-14 SU and 4-15 ATS in its last
19 road games, that would be a diffi cult assumption to make. It
becomes even more diffi cult when you learn that Jose is 17-4 SU
and 15-6 ATS as a favorite, including 9-1 ATS in its last ten tries as
chalk. Do we know the way? We might.
MISSISSIPPI ST over Kentucky by 3
If you look at these two from an offensive perspective, Kentucky
wins in a rout. But, as you well know, there are two sides to the
line of scrimmage and Mississippi State is far better on the other
side. Kentucky has only fi ve SEC wins in its last 23 games under
Rich Brooks but two of them are against this team. Mississippi
State has four SEC wins in its last 37 tries, one against Kentucky.
These two go at each other like Cats and Dawgs.
HOUSTON over C Florida by 10
Last year, Houston was unable to stop Central Florida's running
game and lost by two in Orlando. That might be the case again as
the Cougar run defense ranks 69th in the nation and has been torn
to pieces by the lesser running games of LA Lafayette and Southern
Miss. While the Knights haven't been all that Golden this season,
they fi t the bill in this week's LEAN ON ME handicapping article on
page 2. Houie's 3-14 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite in games
off a SUATS win (8 straight losses) anchors those thoughts.
TOLEDO over Akron by 3
At the beginning of the season, we fi gured both of these teams to
be in the MAC title hunt. Instead, they are the league's two most
disappointing teams. Toledo is 7-1 ATS at home off back-to-back
road games but the Rockets have played nothing like the teams
that posted those marks. Nonetheless, since that win at NC State,
Akron has been anything but impressive and they have lost fi ve in
a row in this series. Should've been the league's most important
game of the year. It's not.
Miami FL over GEORGIA TECH by 1
Talk about a revenge game! Last year, Georgia Tech went buzzing
into Miami as an 18-point underdog and beat the Canes 14-10
stopping a eight-game Hurricane winning streak. Now, Miami gets
a chance to return the favor and, with the one-game suspensions
already served, will have a full complement of weapons. That
doesn't mean that the Bumblebees will be outmatched. Calvin
Johnson outmatches everyone he plays against - and he was shut
out last week! Nonetheless, the media-battered Canes are 5-1
SUATS as a dog under Larry Coker and need a convincing win.
Oklahoma over MISSOURI by 3
The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and
the Sooners have been the favorite in all but three of the last
30 meetings, 27 of which they won. Missouri still hasn't proven
anything to us. The Tigers rode a bushel of turnover touchdowns
to a win at Texas Tech and lost at Texas A&M. Those are the only
two winning teams Mizzou has faced this season. Oklahoma will
come without its main weapon, though. They'll need to ride a
defense that has held its last four foes to season low yards.
Colorado over KANSAS by 3
Kansas has won eight straight home games against .333 or worse
opposition and is a powerful 30-2 ATS in its last 32 SU revenge
wins. Colorado is 5-30 ATS in its last 35 SU losses and 4-11 SU in its
last 15 road games against .375 or better opponents. Don't get too
excited about travelling the yellow brick road until you understand
that Colorado is 20-4 SU in this series (last fi ve in a row by nearly
14 points per game) and is vastly superior defensively. Oh yeah,
in those last 24 games in the series they have been the underdog
four times. They won all four straight-up.
Nebraska over OKLAHOMA ST by 4
The Cornhuskers battled defending national champion Texas
tooth-n-nail in Lincoln last week and, one would think, would be
on an emotional downer in this game. But Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in
its last six games following games with Texas and is 8-2 ATS in its
last ten tries as road favorites. Oklahoma State has not played a
team of this caliber this season and might get pushed around a
little bit here. Cowboys 7-4 ATS last 11 as home dogs.
RUTGERS over Connecticut by 17
How about them Knights! They've risen from the ashes to the elite
as they reside atop the Big East conference standings along with
fellow undefeated colleagues Louisville and West Virginia. Rutgers
pushed UConn all over the fi eld last year (won by more than 200
yards) but won by just two points. Rutgers is better than it was
last year. Connecticut isn't. We like the 40-13-1 ATS mark posted
by Rutgers in its last 54 SU wins. The Knights will win this.
Sunday, October 29th
UCLA over Washington St by 3
Two really diffi cult road games might make it hard for Ucla to
come out hard and tough in this spot and it has been both hard
and tough for the Bruins in this series. Washington State has
covered fi ve in a row and has played surprisingly well against
winning competition this season. Ucla has decidedly the better
defensive team (78 YPG) but their stats are beginning to decline.
Bruins chip in at 12-4 ATS as home dogs, including 9-2 ATS against
a foe off a win.
5 BEST BET
TCU dominated the Mountain West last season and every one
of the league's teams is looking for revenge. BYU and Utah
have already gotten theirs. Now, it's Wyoming's turn. What
do the Cowboys bring in the way of credentials? How about
the nation's number one pass defense and third-best overall
defense. They've held no less than six opponents to season
low - or 2nd low - yardage this year while clawing their way
back to the .500 barrier (two overtime losses). The Horned
Frogs have some instability at QB and their defense isn't
nearly as good as Wyoming's. Bad situation for a favorite of
this size. Especially one that is 4-16 ATS as home chalk against
a .666 or less foe seeking revenge, including 0-7 ATS when
the opposition allows less than 25 PPG. Cowboys lasso a win
as another homecoming favorite bites the dust.
Wyoming over TCU by 10
S MISSISSIPPI over E Carolina by 1
Southern Miss has pretty much owned this series with seven covers
in the last eight meetings but the Pirates are better than they've
been in a while and could cause some trouble here. ECU is 7-1
ATS in its last eight tries as a road dog and are a strong 14-4 ATS
under Skip Holtz. James Pinkney is clearly the best QB on the fi eld
and he could make the difference. ECU is coming off a fi ve-game
home stand and that's surely a concern. Bottom line, though, is
we won't fade this revenge-minded pointspread machine.
HAWAII over Idaho by 21
After those two track meets in Fresno and in Las Cruces, Hawaii is
probably glad to be home in Oahu today. Hawaii is 62-13 ATS in its
last 75 SU wins and has covered 9 of the last 12 as home favorites.
Add a 13-2 ATS log in favor of the Rainbows when they post at
least 28 on the board and there might be a potato mashing in
the Pineapple Patch this week. Huge number kind of turns us off,
though, as the Potato Heads are playing their spuds off and are
4-0 ATS in conference play under Dennis Erickson. They were also
smashed, 24-0, by the Grass Skirts last year.
ALABAMA over Florida Int'l by 21
Here's an incredible stat for you: Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last dozen
home games against losing teams and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as home
chalk. Fortunately for the Tide, they catch the Panthers without
several members of their team due to the suspensions meted out
after the "Melee in Miami". Not interested in either side.
TROY over N Texas by 11
This is the epitome of Sun Belt football. North Texas has the worst
offense in Division I football and Troy ranks among the nation's
bottom 25 on both sides of the ball. Since Troy is 36-3 SU in its last
39 home games and North Texas is 2-19 ATS in its last 21 SU losses,
the Trojans would be the side we'd play if we had to choose.
Arkansas St over FLA ATLANTIC by 7
After getting zipped by Louisiana Lafayette, the Owls aren't
looking too good against a surging Arkansas State team. No home
fi eld advantage exists for the Raptors, a fact proven by their 1-6
ATS log in their last seven here, and they have only three SU wins
in their last 14 games. Arkansas State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last
eight SU road wins, so we can't fade the Tribe in this.
Mid Tenn St over LA LAFAYETTE by 6
Middle Tennessee has allowed just six points total in its two league
games this season and will be looking for revenge in Cajun Country
tonight. MTSU 8-2 ATS in its last ten road revenge games and has
had an extra week to get ready for a team that managed only a
pair of fi eld goals against lowly Florida Atlantic last week. With
Lafayette's dismal 1-9 ATS log in its last ten as conference home
chalk, we'll be wearin' our blue jeans to this dance.
ARKANSAS over LA Monroe by 36
Wow! After upsetting Auburn nearly a month ago, the Hogs have
faced Division I-AA SE Missouri, Mississippi and now, Louisiana
Monroe. Tough to fi nd an offense in that bunch. This Monroe team
hasn't hit the 20-point mark all season long and doesn't fi gure to
do so today. Arkansas is 11-4 ATS when allowing less than 21.
TENNESSEE over Houston by 1
Vince Young has given the Titans new energy on both sides of
the ball as evidenced by their near miss in Indianapolis and their
surprising win in Washington. Houston has covered four of the last
fi ve in this series and certainly doesn't fear a Tennessee team that
is 1-7 ATS in its last eight division home games. The now-favored
Titans have been DD dogs each of their last fi ve games.
PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville by 7
Holy mackerel, Andy. What's a team to do? They outgain an
opponent, 506-196, and lose the game on a 62-yard fi eld goal!
Obviously, we'll need to know the status of Byron Leftwich before
we make a defi nitive call here but this game looks like one that
the Jags will have trouble winning. Yes, Jacksonville has been a
creditable underdog with 17 ATS wins in its last 24 appearances
in that role but Philadelphia counters with its 11-3 ATS log when
playing at home off BB road games. Without Leftwich, though,
Jacksonville's chances for a win are severely diminished.
3 BEST BET
Both teams probably needed last week off. After a 4-0 start,
Baltimore dropped back-to-back games against Denver and
Carolina and lost their offensive coordinator in the process.
New Orleans is coming off three straight division games plus
the emotional win over Philadelphia. Baltimore is 0-11 SU in
its last 11 road games against teams with at least one win
and New Orleans is 46-1-1 ATS in its last 48 non-division SU
wins. Mysteriously, Raven head coach Brian Billick dismissed
OC Jim Fassel and now assumes the chore. We've seen that
before. The New Orleans miracle marches on.
NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore by 10
5 BEST BET
Despite last week's win, the Bengals have been slipping a little,
mostly because of injuries to their defense. They've allowed
more yards than they've gained for the season, no thanks to
the league's 8th worst rush defense that allows 4.6 Yards Per
Rush. That defense better get healthy real quick if it wants
to stop the league's top rushing team. That's because in the
last 20 home games in which the Bengals were outrushed
they are 3-17 SU & 1-19 ATS! That's an ominous number for
a favorite with a leaky defense. Atlanta has had some great
moments this year and is in need of another.
Atlanta over CINCINNATI by 13
4 BEST BET
New England looks to be on track for another Super Bowl
run in 2006. Or, are they? They've split out against the two
winning foes they've faced this season while putting the losers
on their slate to sleep in typical Patriots' fashion. However,
Minnesota is a sterling 12-4 ATS as a non-division home dog
in its last 16 chances and is 7-3 ATS as pups under the Monday
night lights. The Vikes bring the better defense and the better
running game into this contest. They've also improved their
net team stats 32 YPG since Game 5 while the Pats have
regressed 55 YPG over the same span. New England dips to
0-8 ATS in October off a double-digit ATS win tonight.
MINNESOTA over New England by 10
Monday, October 30th
NY GIANTS over Tampa Bay by 10
Tampa catches the Giants off a Monday night game at Dallas and
that has always been a good spot for Giant opponents. After
playing in Dallas, New York is 0-8 ATS in its last eight tries. The GMen
are also a miserable 2-11 ATS in October non-division home
games and 0-6 ATS in their last six chances as home chalk of -7
or more. The Bucs, though, are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road
games when those trips were sandwiched between two at home.
Fact is that during Tampa's two-game win streak, they've been
outstatted in both contests – the last by over 300 yards!
CHICAGO over San Francisco by 16
The Forty Niners couldn't have picked a worse time to go out on
the road nor could they have picked a worse place to go. The scare
in Arizona has the Bears practicing feverishly to regain their edge
and they view San Francisco as the quintessential whetstone. In
their last nine regular season home games, the Bears are 9-0 SU
and 8-1 ATS without EVER allowing ten or more points in any one
game. San Fran is 4-39 ATS when held to less than 14. Clincher is
that undefeated home teams, playing at home with a week of
rest, are 14-2 ATS against a foe off a SUATS loss. Despite those
numbers, we're not keen on laying this kind of lumber.
GREEN BAY over Arizona by 4
We've decried Arizona as a terrible road team several times in these
pages and that the Cardinals are. After laying an egg in Oakland
last week, Zona is now 3-19 SU and 8-24 ATS on the road. Green
Bay may not be the better team here but the Packers are 18-1-2
ATS in their last 21 SU non-division wins and are in desperate need
of a home win. If we play this, it won't be with the Cardinals.
KANSAS CITY over Seattle by 3
Kansas City has never been a fun place for division rivals and back
when Seattle was in the same division, the Seahawks performed
miserably on this fi eld. They played 21 games here since 1980
winning only three and covering only fi ve while being favored in
just four of those 21 games (The Hawks lost all four on the fi eld).
Although Seattle isn't even in the same conference anymore, the
numbers don't get better. KC is 17-6 ATS as a non-division home
dog in its last 23 opportunities. Check status of Seahawks' QB Matt
Hasselbeck, who was injured in last week's game vs. Minnesota.
SAN DIEGO over St Louis by 8
Regarded by most experts as the most talented team in the NFL, the
Chargers take on the Rams, a team with no covers in its last seven
games against this division. San Diego has only two covers in the
last dozen game following a battle with division rival Kansas City
but the Chargers are 7-2 ATS as favorites against teams who are
coming off a bye week. Note that the Rams are 6-20 ATS in their
last 26 road games against winning teams when being outrushed,
a virtual certainty here. Problem at hand for San Diego is the loss
of star LB Merriman to suspension of steroid violation. He's the
4th Charger LB to leave the lineup this season.
Pittsburgh over OAKLAND by 7
It could be said that Oakland has little chance to win this game
since the Raiders are 1-11 SU and ATS in their last 12 tries as home
dogs. That probability is magnifi ed by Pittsburgh's 10-1 SU mark
in its last 11 road games against sub .600 teams. Now factor in
the Steelers' 89-6 ATS log in their last 95 SU road wins and this
case becomes nearly crystal clear. The fl y in the ointment is the
fact this home dog actually owns the better defense (32 yards
superior than the Steelers)! This has the aroma of a Pittsburgh
win and an Oakland cover.
CLEVELAND over NY Jets by 3
Other than the game against barefooted Oakland, Cleveland has
been unable to score more than 17 points in any game this year.
The Browns better get more than that today or another ATS loss
is likely. The Jets are 30-3 ATS as an non-division road underdog
or pick when they hold their opponent to 17 or less. Still, we don't
get real excited about the third-worst defense in the NFL on the
road, especially at this number. This fact we know: the Flyboys are
the worst winning team in the NFL and it's only a matter of time
before they pay the piper.
DENVER over Indianapolis by 4
The Colts are a sparkling 22-7 SU on the road since 2003, including
12-5-2 ATS when not favored by six or more. But, in their last fi ve
games as a road underdog, the Ponies are 0-4-1 ATS. Denver, on
the other hand, has just one non-division home loss (to Pittsburgh
in last year's AFC title game) in its last 11 chances and is 5-2 ATS in
the last seven against Indianapolis. The Broncos need the Plummer
to play well here or this one could go right down the drain. A case
of Drain-o may be on the way.
CAROLINA over Dallas by 1
We have documented many times that Carolina's preferred role is
that of the underdog and that the Panthers hover near mediocrity
when made the favorite. Their 4-14-1 ATS log as home chalk of -3
or more testifi es to that. But the Black Cats are also 7-3-1 ATS with
revenge against non-division foes and are at the top of their game
right now. Dallas has had Giant hangovers in the past with just
two covers in its last 11 games after playing the G-Men. Bottom
line is the dog is the way to look here.