SB Pick Posted in BC's Free Pick Column

[TheBlackCat]

I'm on board with the pack here, although I did stick out my neck more than most -- see why!

[Bettorsworld]

Here's the Black Vats write up - Just in case you don't know where to look.



Chicago 27, Indianapolis 20







Yes, I'm going with the CHICAGO BEARS, which should surprise absolutely nobody. I am also recommending the under. This is a classic public vs. wiseguy situation. I feel the Indianapolis -7 is vastly inflated to try because of the public's affinity for Peyton Manning. This is a neutral field, are you telling me that if the Superbowl were in Indy, you'd lay 10 points on them? I think this game is a pick'em, maybe Colts -1.5. I think anything above Colts -4.5, its starting to get a bit crazy. Now, I'm down on my record for the playoffs. While Bears +7 is the equivalent to printing $$$, I'm going to go on a small limb here and try to fix my 3-4 record. For TWO wins and a 55% playoff record for the nth consequetive year, I'm rolling the dice on.....

BEARS WIN SUPERBOWL 2-1 PAYOFF (2 Wins)



Also, since I threw out a recommendation on a bad total last week, I'll square that up with UNDER 48.5 for the Superbowl. Why? Its a tough call on both of these, but if I'm laying my chips down on ONE thing, its the Bears defense. While they did lull in the later half against poor competition, they always step it up in the big games and put out a Baltimore-like effort (who held the Colts to 15 despite giving up buckets of yards, and a bounced FG from 12). While the Bears offense is a bit less effective in marque matchups, the defense responds to a lack of R-E-S-P-E-C-T. And no shortage of that this week, eh? One example is the Bears claim Reggie Bush's showboat TD dive embarrassed the Bears defense, and they responded by shutting out the Saints for the remainder of the game. Hey, I don't quite get that but if it works for them, it works for me.

QBs get you in the playoffs, they don't win you the playoffs. Great teams win playoff games. In fact, a QB like Manning will always be at a competitive disadvantage in the salary cap era because he takes up $100M of cap space. This has been one of the closest playoff races ever and why should the Superbowl be any different? The NFC sent their best team, bar none, and Chicago clearly ranks with the top 4 teams in the afc. On the AFC side, did they even send their best team? It seems to me the AFC playoffs were really one big crapshoot of very good but very evenly matched teams. The Colts aren't the best defense (Ravens). They aren't the best offense (Chargers). They aren't the most balanced team (New England). They are just the team the AFC sent, seemingly because no one was willing to commit to the run against the Colts in the 2nd half. If the Bears do that, they win. Also, because the "roughing the passer penalty" that has plagued the league all season reared its ugly head with a minute left to play, thereby ruining what was one of the best games in NFL history. Yeah, I'm saying, I don't think the Colts win that game if they don't get a hopelessly bad call with no time left to repair it. I also think the 2 week period is an advantage to the Bears. This is because Manning is so smart, they could have played the Bears on Wednesday and killed them. He already knows everything he needs to know. However, the Bears QB isn't so swift at preparation (see New Year's Eve game) and the defense had its work cut out for them. So all this time, I really think helped the Bears with their preparation. Both QBs are very well versed seeing the Tampa 2. And Grossman sees it in practice every day. But again, with Manning being good against EVERYTHING, I see this as more of an advantage for Grossman, who plays poorly when confused. He shouldn't be confused in this game whatsoever, and he does have Rypien touch on the deep throws. Thomas Jones is heavily overlooked, fresh with the rookie acquisition carrying some of the load and off of two back-to-back 100+ games with little fanfare. Unlike the Patriots who ran sissy draws all day, the Bears will pound it up the gut and really test the renewed Colts defense. I believe they can be worn down. This game reminds me a lot of Tampa Bay vs. Oakland a few years ago. People don't think of Rich Gannon as Peyton Manning, but he was sure playing like it going into that game! Tampa won that game handily, 48-21. In fact, lets be honest, outside of the 2nd half of the Championship game, Manning hasn't been all that great himself. The Bears SHOULD win the turnover battle in this game, and that usually translates to winning the game. They should also start out stronger, being more loose than the uptight Colts with blazing 1Q speed from all that adreneline. And lets not forget the gigantic elephant in the corner, SPECIAL TEAMS. That Bears guy has scored in nearly 1/4 of their games and Indianapolis was bloody awful in the Championship game. He's a realistic threat to score and might even "Desmond Howard" this game given the chance. Plus, their kicker is hot too and could give Adam a run for his money.

[chuck]

BC, Thanks for the insightful post. Since joining the board this year I have looked forward to your analysis of NFL games each week. I like your style of writing and most important, your winning record.

[dragon1952]

Only thing about the under....I think the Bears can definitely stop the Colts. I'm worried that the Colts might not be able to stop the Bears! A couple special teams/defensive TD's...Hester giving them field position all day... 175 yds rushing...

[widestrides]

Extra week was very good for the Colts, even more so than for the Bears.

Peyton's thumb had another week to heal. If I were the Bears I would have rather faced him last week with a sore thumb.

Colts had not had a week off like the Bears, so they had been playing tough games right through the end of the season and into the playoffs. The rest was needed and more beneficial for the Colts than the Bears.

Bob Sanders and Nick Harper got an extra week to heal also.

Colts will be more poised at first. Bears might be able to hang in there and make something happen at the end. But I doubt it. This will be Peyton's Day. However I wouldn't say -7 is a sure thing. I'm just going to watch and enjoy without anything but pleasure riding on it.

[TheBlackCat]

Obviously the extra week DIDN'T help the Bears considering how poorly they executed both on offense and defense. Outside of that, I think the game played out very much like how I called it. With the caveat being, and I typed this quite clearly, IF THE BEARS RUN THE BALL IN THE 2ND HALF, THEY WILL WIN. They didn't. They lost.

I was convinced they HAD to run the ball because they certainly weren't going to let Grossman blow the game. Obviously, Lovie proved me wrong. I can only go on what they said going into the game, and that's what they said they were going to do.

[dragon1952]

It was a good pick....don't dwell on it too much. They had a chance all the way into the 4th quarter to win outright and even after it was 29-17 all they needed was a TD to still cover. We'll get em next time