I did a little research on the outcomes of betting against line movements this football season. The season is still quite young, but thought this might be interesting to some of you. For those unfamiliar with betting against the line movement, here is an example. Team A opens as -3 vs. Team B. 1 Hr prior to kickoff Team A is now -4.5 vs. Team B. Betting against the line movement would cause you to play on Team B who is now receiving 4' instead of 3.
Listed below is the record of betting against the movement for both NCAA and NFL. The opening and ending lines were taking from www.scoresandodds.com. Games with no movement we're not included.
Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 9-9 50%
NFL 2-1 66%
Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 6-11 35%
NFL 1-2 33%
Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 1-11 9%
NFL 0-1 0%
Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 1-8 11%
NFL 2-2 50%
Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 2-5 29%
NFL 0-0
Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 1-0 100%
NFL 0-1 0%
Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 1-1 50%
NFL 0-0
Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 1-2 33%
NFL 0-0
NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 9-4 69%
NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 3-1 75%
After digging into to the information presented above it appears the most profitibable games to bet (AT THIS POINT) are the following:
Bet NCAA games with the movement changes ranging from 1-2' pts (78%)
NCAA Favorites with no line movement (69%)
NFL Favorites with no line movement (75%)
Now this information is based on a very small percentage of games so it is potentially skewed somewhat. I think it'll be interesting, however, to follow this throughout the season. Good Luck!
Listed below is the record of betting against the movement for both NCAA and NFL. The opening and ending lines were taking from www.scoresandodds.com. Games with no movement we're not included.
Bet against 1/2 pt movement
NCAA 9-9 50%
NFL 2-1 66%
Bet against 1 pt movement
NCAA 6-11 35%
NFL 1-2 33%
Bet against 1' pt movement
NCAA 1-11 9%
NFL 0-1 0%
Bet against 2 pt movement
NCAA 1-8 11%
NFL 2-2 50%
Bet against 2' pt movement
NCAA 2-5 29%
NFL 0-0
Bet against 3 pt movement
NCAA 1-0 100%
NFL 0-1 0%
Bet against 3' pt movement
NCAA 1-1 50%
NFL 0-0
Bet against 4 or more pt movement
NCAA 1-2 33%
NFL 0-0
NCAA Lines with No Movement
Favorites 9-4 69%
NFL Lines with No Movement
Favorites 3-1 75%
After digging into to the information presented above it appears the most profitibable games to bet (AT THIS POINT) are the following:
Bet NCAA games with the movement changes ranging from 1-2' pts (78%)
NCAA Favorites with no line movement (69%)
NFL Favorites with no line movement (75%)
Now this information is based on a very small percentage of games so it is potentially skewed somewhat. I think it'll be interesting, however, to follow this throughout the season. Good Luck!
Comment