Teaser strategies

[widestrides]

I'm looking into Teasers lately.

Is it allowed to tease both sides or both totals of the same game? Doesn't look like it.

Are there some historical stats that show the % of games that end up within 6 points, 6.5, or 7 points of the point spread or total? Any trends there - like which actual point spreads or totals usually end up within 6 or 7 points of the actual closing line. Or which teams or coaches usually wind up within the teaser range. Gotta be Gruden. His team are ALWAYS around the spreads and totals.

Are totals more likely to end up within the teaser range?

Thanks for any tips you can share.

[Boone Moone]

I don't play a whole lot of teasers but I've noticed through my experience with them that whenever I hit a teaser (6-point), the parlay usually clicks as well.........How many times have you hit a 6-team teaser, and then say "Shit, I should have played the parlay instead"?..........Teasers put us in a comfort zone and we choose teams that we might not necessarily pick on a "straight" play or a regular "parlay" pick..........Especially those 10-point "sweetheart" teasers that can drive you nuts.

I'm sure Dragon and Garister will have some good stats and strategies on Teaser Plays.........They're pretty good at these...........Good Luck.

[dragon1952]

If you're a really sharp handicapper (which I'm not), you could probably make a killing on teasers. It's amazing how often they lose though. And they always look like they couldn't miss. I think the odds are really crummy on them considering that they aren't as easy as you think. I think the key is too choose teams that you think could win outright, kinda like on a regular parlay. If you pick teams that probably don't have a chance of winning, and then try and guess how much or how little they will lose by, you probably won't do very well. Last night, the Bears went to +5 right around game time. You would think, like me, that +11 on a 6-point teaser would be money in the bank......not! But like Boone says, it's funny how many times the regular parlay would have won anyway. Where I do pretty well is on basketball teasers, or just buying points on BB parlays ( I can buy up to 3 pts). In basketball, you can't have one or 2 key plays, like in football, that can ruin your day. And it's uncanny how close the oddsmakers can get to the actual spread.
Bottom line....don't pick crummy teams and hope they don't lose by too much, don't bet favorites on games that could go either way or be tight, look for mismatches and hot teams, mix some totals in there as it's too hard to pick 3 or 4 sides correctly no matter what the points. 6 or 7 points on a total is huge, whereas it's just a fumble, INT, return or freak play away on a side (can ruin a nice 'under' too)

[Taxman]

I have a database going back to 85 in NFL. I have a column that calculates the individual team's result plus or minus the spread. I am out of town this week and may have a chance to run the query and get back to you for this weekend's game.

I know I did run the same query three years ago, and if memory serves me correctly, I believe that there was a 75%-80% range that a game would land in the sweetheart teaser over the years.

I felt at that time, that it was not benefical to wager on that because you had to place 6 units to win 5. Then again, I did the total on the whole population (all 28, 30, 31, and 32 teams) and not the individual team.

I need to revisit it and look at it a different angle.

[Bettorsworld]

Of course the key to whether it's worthwhile is the price you can get on your teasers. Years ago sportsbooks all offered even money or better on teasers.........until the the cat got out of the bag and they realized teasers, at the prices they were offering, were very beatable.

The most profitable teasers are those in which you can pick up the key numbers of 3 and 7 along the way. Those games should be the ones you concentrate on.

For example teasing home favs of -7.5 to -8.5 down to -1.5 to -2.5. This tease picks up both the 3 and the 7.

Likewise taking a +1.5 to +2.5 dog and teasing up to +7.5 to +8.5......again, you are picking up the 3 and 7 along the way, two numbers crucial to NFL betting.

Not surprisingly it was the home teams that covered at a mor eprofitable clip when teaseed in these scenarios......

One of the best times to use teasers is during the NFL playoffs when you have games that fir the above crieteria.

Stanford Wong wrote a book called Sharp Sports Betting, which I'd reccomend to anyone looking to learn more and looking to learn how to approach beating sports. If nothing else, the book will get you to start thinking properly. The copy I have was written in 2001. He may have revised it by now as well as the figures in it for teasers......

But in the copy I have he did a 10 year study from 1990 to 2000 and gave a nice breakdown of the percentages needed to break even on teasers as well as the cover rate in different categories.

For example, a two team 6 point teaser at -120 requires each team to cover at a clip of 73.9%.

When taking all teams during this time frame and teasing them 6 points, you would have had a cover rate of 67.4%..........a loser.

However when focusing on the games where you pick up the 3 and 7, the cover rates looks like this:

Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5 teased down = 79.8%

Home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up = 82.2%

Away favs same range - 76.2%

Away Dogs same range 73.5%

Again, prices on teasers have been adjusted over the years to take away player advantages. But there still seems to be some wiggle room out there.

So, shop for sportsbooks that offer you the best teaser payouts (and make sure they don't screw you on ties)

Look to play 2 or 3 team teasers where you pick up the 3 and 7.

Concentrate on the home teams

Especially worthwhile in the NFL playoffs

Read Stanford Wongs book

The data is old. But maybe taxman's data can shed new light........



Good Luck

[widestrides]

Wow, if 75-80% of games ended up within the teaser range, that's worth looking further into and finding the point spreads and total numbers that did even better!

We may find that a teaser on -3 or -7 or +1 or +4 wins a big % of the time. Of course when you factor in that TWO teams have to come in, that drops the winning % signifcantly.

Let us know what you find.

Thanks!

[chuck]

When betting teasers at the Reno, Nevada Sportsbooks I use 2 team 6 point teasers and 3 team 10 point teasers. There are two circumstances that should be noted.

A push for one team on a 2 team 6 point teaser results in a TIE for the whole ticket. It does not matter if the other team won, lost, or tied.

A push for one team on a 3 team 10 point teaser results in a LOSS for the whole ticket. It does not matter if the other two teams won.

[woodee12]

Thats what i was thinking Jeff.

My theory on teasers is picking up those key numbers, home teams, and also betting them late in the season and in the playoffs like was mentioned.

I believe the lines get really tight either way as the year goes on with more games landing around the number than early in the year when oddsmakers don't know everything about certian teams.

I know they want balanced action but they also do a hell of a good job at setting lines that fall within the actual outcome.

I have had success with Teasing the NFL this year following most of those rules and I think there is great opportunity from here on out. Maybe we should start a teaser of the week thread and see if we can get a good consensus on the bets value of the week or something.

[widestrides]

Ties win on two team teasers. Or you should find a book where they do.

Woodee. Good idea to start a teaser thread. I'll do it.

[widestrides]

At my book, ties win on two team teasers and the odds are usually -110.

[hart attack]

WITHOUT EVER HAVING READ ANYTHING ABOUT TEASERS, I HAVE ALWAYS FOUND IT MOST SUCCESSFULL TO TEASE DOWN FAVES FROM THAT 6-9 RANGE DOWN TO LESS THAN 3.

ANYONE ON HERE EVER TINKER WITH "PLEASERS"? I PLAY A COUPLE EACH WEEK FOR $5 OR $10 AND HAVE HIT SEVERAL THIS SEASON. PAYOFFS ARE OUTRAGEOUS. I KNOW THEY ARE EXTREMELY TOUGH, BUT I HAVE DONE PRETTY WELL LAYING THE EXTRA WOOD ON BIG FAVORITES IN COLLEGE. MIZZOU, TEX TECH, OK, FL, PSU, AND TEXAS HAVE PERFORMED WELL FOR ME AS WELL AS PLAYING AGAINST HORRIBLE PERENNIAL DOORMAT TEAMS.

[chuck]

Widestrides, I would love to find a book where ties win on two team teasers. Is a tie and a win a winning ticket? Is a tie and a tie a winning ticket? What happens with a tie and a loss? What is the name of your book?

[widestrides]

JazzSports says ties win, so that must mean a winning ticket even if both games push. -110 odds.

Let me know if you find out anything different.

Any others have books where ties win?

Hope it was okay to mention them. They are affiliated with BetJam, a sponsor of BW, so I thought it would be okay.

Other BW sponsors:
BetJam says for a two teamer, any tie = no action

Skybook, Sportbook and Sportsbetting say for a two teamer:
a tie and a win = no action
a tie and a loss = a loss.

[chuck]

Thanks. If ties are wins that is huge. It means key numbers like 3 and 7 are wins rather than ties; kind of like getting the hook for free. The only thing we have in Reno where ties win are parlay cards (minimum 3 picks) but that is not what we are talking about here.

[Taxman]

Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5 teased down = 79.8%

Home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up = 82.2%

Away favs same range - 76.2%

Away Dogs same range 73.5%

My data for regular season games from 90-2000 has:

Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5 teased down 6 = 78.5%

Home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up = 76.3% (significant difference, did the numbers include playoff games?)


From 2001-Week 10 2008
Home favs of -7.5 to -8.5 teased down 6 dropped significantly to 67.9%

Home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up = 76.1%

I have discrepancies in with road favorites. I will rerun the query and get back to you.