NFL Playoffs (Early thoughts)

[Dinger]

I crunched the numbers using my system and came up with my own line.

Atl -2 Az
I think my system is very close on this one. I'm interested what the bookies will have posted by tomorrow.

Phl -1.5 Min
Wow...likes the Eagles to win straight-up. I'm guessing the Vegas line will have the Vikings about -3

Bal -6.5 Mia
Another wow...pretty sure the Ravens are not going to be favored this high.
I'm guessing LV post about -2.5. My system loves the Ravens...not so high on the Dolphins.

SD -2.5 Ind
Not to fond of this line using my system...however LT might have a field day. I'm thinking the Colts will be favored in Vegas about -3.5..guessing though.

[jpehl]

like indy and philly leaning on atl but dont think they give points awau. IMO atl/ari is a pickem. I cant figure out balt or mia right now. Just my first thoughts

[jpehl]

early lines @ pinnacle
atl -1 50.5
ind pickem 50.5
balt -3 37
philly -3 41.5

Interesting that all home teams are dogs

[dragon1952]

The opening lines I've seen have been:
Atlanta -1.5 @ Arizona 49
Baltimore -2.5 @ Miami 37.5
Minnesota -1 vs Philadelphia 41
Indianapolis -2.5 @ San Diego 48.5
It looks like the lines have moved as follows:
Atlanta -2.5 @ Arizona 50 - 50.5
Baltimore -3 (-120) @ Miami 37
Philadelphia -3 @ Minnesota 42 - 42.5
Indianapolis -1 @ San Diego 49.5

When Indianapolis traveled to San Diego in Week 12, San Diego was a -1.5 pt favorite, but I believe it went up to -2.5 or -3 by game time. The Colts won that one 23-20 on a last second 51 yarder by Vinatieri. The Chargers are hot after winning 4 in a row to end the season, but the Colts have been unbeatable over their last 9 games.
Baltimore beat the Dolphins at Miami by 2 TD's back in Week 7
At this point, I would lean towards:
Arizona +2.5
Baltimore -3
Philadelphia -3
Indianapolis -1

[dragon1952]

Check out that 4 pt swing in the Minnesota/ Philadelphia game.

[hart attack]

ravens are the best first round bet. that D will smother a weak miami offense and their offense will do enough to get the double digit win.

colts/sd is an over all the way

minn/philly...which philly team will show up? will westbrook limp off the field? not touching this one for now

az/atl- most interesting first rd game. over is my play here. cards will score plenty at home and wont stop turner.

[garister]

I don't recall ever seeing that none of the home teams in the playoffs are favored this weekend.

Ravens best bet this weekend

[woodee12]

I alos think the Ravens are the best play so hopefully that is the right call. I already grabbed them at -3, early.

I think their D will be too much for the gimmick Dolphins offense as well. Plus it seems the Phins can't make the play when it counts, and that will be the death of them.

While Dallas is the ultimate 'I' team, Baltimore is the ultimate 'WE' team. They just do what it takes to win even though they are not one bit flashy doing it.

other than that, I am leaning Minny, Atlanta, and SD.

[RAW]

Ravens jumped out to me as well as best play.

[Bettorsworld]

Uh oh........


Ravens jumped out at me as well.......To me, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs. The way they played over the 2nd half of the season, I think they can beat anyone on any field. If they win here they get the Titans.

I think the Eagles are the other dangerous team. The Vikings had trouble with a Giants team that was just playing out the season. This week they get another NFC East team that actually cares if it wins or not. If the Eagles win, they get the Giants. If I'm the Giants, I'm rooting like hell for the Vikings this week. The Eagles are another team, I believe, that can beat anyone on any given day.......they'll use the Giants of last year as an example of what they can accomplish.....winning 3 playoff games on the road to get to the Super Bowl.

The Colts and Chargers are both hot. Manning is carrying the Colts. I have to give this game a more thorough look.

The Falcon-Cards game doesn't interest me much because I don't believe either team is going anywhere. The Falcons almost blew it last week against the Rams which doesn't bode to well for them heading into the playoffs.

The Falcons, Cards or Vikings will be going to Carolina and I don't think any of the 3 can win a playoff game there.

The Cards, Falcons or Eagles go to New York. The Eagles can beat the Giants.

The Ravens Chargers or Colts go to Tennessee.....the Ravens have the best shot there.

The Dolphins, Chargers or Colts go to Pittsburgh.......I think only the Colts can win there as they did it once already this season but also think it's unlikely any of the 3 will win.

At this point it looks to me like the Steelers vs Ravens or Titans for the AFC crown and the Panthers vs the Giants or Eagles for the NFC.

The Steelers seem to be the most likely AFC choice. I think they win a rematch with the Titans in Tennessee and I think they beat anyone else that would have to come play them in Pitt.

In the NFC The Panthers look like a lock for the NFC Championship game. It's a question of whether that game will be at home, likely against the Eagles, or on the road against the Giants.

I think Carolina wins a rematch against the Giants in New York if it happens......at home against the Eagles, might be interesting.

I think I just predicted a Panthers vs Steelers Super Bowl.......but the Eagles are an interesting possibility as well. Can you imagine the Eagles going to the Super Bowl after the Philly fans basically ran Mcnab and Reid out of town already??

[woodee12]

I agree Jeff on most of your comments...

With that being said, Philly is now +625 to win the NFC. Some decent value there I think.

THE AFC is as follows:

731 Tennessee Titans +225
732 Pittsburgh Steelers +185
733 Miami Dolphins +1415
734 San Diego Chargers +585
735 Indianapolis Colts +525
736 Baltimore Ravens +715

[widestrides]

You nailed it - the Eagles are scary.

I'm a Giants fan and I am pulling hard for the Viks.

The Minny defense is capable of doing to McNabb what the Redskins did and what the Ravens and even the Bengals did.

McNabb could still get run out of town if he implodes again. It usually occurs after he starts dancing like he did last week.

C'mon Viks!

But I couldn't trust Tavarius Jackson with any of my hard earned money. Jim Johnson will be bringing the house.

[dragon1952]

What bothers me is that crappy game Philly played 2 weeks ago at Washington. That game was about as big as they get. With Dallas playing at home vs Baltimore later that evening, a Philly loss and a Dallas win could have eliminated the Eagles. Except for the road win over the Giants, the only teams they beat on the road were San Francisco (and that one was way closer than the score indicated) and Seattle. They sucked at Cincinnati in the OT tie, and they lost at Dallas, Chicago, Baltimore and Washington. So just 1 quality road win. Maybe the Vikings were just a little over confident playing against the Giants last week, considering they had nothing to play for.
Minnesota was 6-2 at home, including a 20-10 win over Carolina. Their only 2 home losses were a 3 pt loss to Indianapolis, a game in which they led 15-0 near the end of the 3rd Q, and a 7 pt loss to Atlanta by virtue of a Falcon fumble recovery in the Viking end zone. Minnesota out-yarded the Falcons 350-222 in that one and held Michael Turner to 70 yds on 19 carries, and Matt Ryan to 13 of 24 for 134 yds, but the Vikings fumbled 7 times, losing 4 of them. I think Minnesota is a great home dog at +3.