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**dragon1952** · 01-05-2009, 03:04 AM

Here's my sorry-ass thoughts.
As far as offense goes, Arizona has looked the sharpest so far (in the playoffs). They've turned it back on in the last 2 games. And their defense has all of a sudden become formidable. Just 54 yds combined for Turner and Norwood on 20 carries? Plus they played the Panthers to within 4 pts last time, and were actually leading 17-3 in that game 5 min into the 3rd Q. What killed them was an Edgerrin James fumble at their own 18 seconds after Carolina had scored to cut the lead to 17-10. Warner was 35 of 49 for 381 yds and 2 TD's with 1 INT, and the Card defense held Williams and Stewart to just 118 yds and 1 TD, which is better than most teams have.
If it wasn't for Sproles and Scifres success, San Diego wouldn't have done a hell of a lot against the Colts. I doubt if either of them can replicate those performances against the Steelers. In the last matchup Sam Diego had 218 total yds and Rivers got picked twice. I don't think Sproles will have any more success than LT did. But their defense has been playing much better, especially the pass rush and that's where the Steelers have been vulnerable.
The Eagle running game was pathetic. And if it wasn't for that one Westbrook screen pass that went 71 yds for the TD, McNabb's #'s would have been very mediocre. He fucked up so many plays it's unbelievable. If he plays the same way against the Giants they'll lose by double-digits.
Baltimore actually out-played Tennessee in the last match-up, out-yarding them 285-210, and had the edge in FD's 22-14 and a 9 min time-of-possession edge. They held Chris Johnson/LenDale White to 48 yds combined, and forced Collins to throw 32 times, picking him off twice. The Ravens were leading 10-6 with about 5 min left and they stopped the Titans on a 3rd and 10 at around the Titan 30 yd line, but they called roughing the passer and Tennessee ended up scoring on the drive to pull out a 3 pt win.

Baltimore is playing awfully well right now. I'd have to take them +3.
I like Arizona +10.
The Chargers have had to travel an awful lot this year. This will be their 5th trip to the east coast, plus the trip to London. So 6 times in the past 15 weeks they will have had to travel at least 2100 mi. and 3 time zones. They are 1-4 SU in those 5 trips so far. I'm with you, I'd almost rather see Leftwich in there if I'm going with the Steelers. Not sure what I'll do here, if anything, but I think San Diego's luck is about to run out. Although they have surprised me more than once.
I have no idea on the Philly/New York game. Tough divisional game and the 3rd meeting this year. And the last 3 meetings have been decided by a total of 14 pts. I think the Giants will pull out the win, but I don't know about 4 pts.

**cowboyfan2** · 01-05-2009, 08:58 AM

well i dont know if i am even going to bother handicapping the other 3 games because i think the GMEN are going to spank the she-gulls like a bad girl

this team had no business making the playoffs and looked pathetic going against another team that did not deserve to be in the playoffs

in all seriousness....Giants -4 is a max play for me

cf2

**widestrides** · 01-05-2009, 11:25 AM

Good analysis guys.

I agree, Giants should beat the Eagles, but Giants' defense not as strong as last year. Westbrook gives them fits. But McNabb may implode once again IF the Giants can get pressure. Like the Giants but worried about the points. Philly D is very good, but they can be run on. Who better to do that? Earth, Wind and Fire. An error-free Eli would do the trick. If weather allows, this could go over 40. Like the Giants, even at -4.

I like Tenny. I've been riding Baltimore all year, but Tenny may be the team tough enough to stand up to them. Home field. Veteran coach vs. rookie coach. Veteran QB vs. rookie QB. Better balance on offense. And a defense almost as good. Two very good kickers. A turnover here or there may decide it. Both teams will play very cautiously. But we could see a repeat of Tenny's win over Pittsburgh. They might not come near 35 points total, but turnovers could put it over. I like Tenny when it drops to -2.5.

I'm still not convinced Zona has a run defense. Atlanta had them on their heels by the end of the 2nd quarter and Warner looked uncomfortable. Zona certainly outcoached Atlanta with halftime adjustments. Carolina has many weapons and I see them scoring more than 30. 10 points is a lot, but Carolina will come out smoking. Warner and the Cards are very dangerous. And even if Carolina clobbers them early, Warner could get the cover in garbage time at the end. I like the over 48. And maybe Carolina first half.

I fully agree with dragon that SD has got to be gassed with all their travel this year and the desperate finish in the last 4 games, the high emotional clobbering of Denver and then a tough game against the Colts. Now take another long flight and play a well rested, nasty Blitzburgh at home in the cold. Only Pittsburgh's sometimes anemic offense would keep them from covering as Sproles will NOT run over Blitzburgh like he did the Colts. And Rivers will not stroll outside the pocket all day against the Steelers. Gotta take the Steelers -6.

Finally, you cannot underestimate how much a week off means to these pros after a long and grueling season. One team with a week off, resting at home, while your opponent has traveled and continued to get beat up and sore and then they have to turn around and travel again and go against a rested and edgy favorite in a hostile environment. You can look at stats and matchups all day, but you have to look at this factor big time. Arizona and SD at least had the home game last week, but they both have the long west to east coast travel this week.

**jpehl** · 01-05-2009, 06:02 PM

Wide,
I agree with everything you said except the last paragraph.
"Finally, you cannot underestimate how much a week off means to these pros after a long and grueling season. One team with a week off, resting at home, while your opponent has traveled and continued to get beat up and sore and then they have to turn around and travel again and go against a rested and edgy favorite in a hostile environment."
You know I do agree but just coming off a vacation and getting back to the real world today. I guess I kind of felt retarded and lost for the first 4 hours of the day. Maybe some players may feel the same way and miss a few steps in the first quarter who knows. Hasnt at least one wild card team each year done fairly well. (I could be wrong) Ultimately what im getting to is that i dont know how big of a factor the week off really is to some teams, maybe we underestimate it or overestimate it. Who knows? Good luck to everyone this week.
jpehl

**jpehl** · 01-05-2009, 06:06 PM

Last thought
I get the feeling this week that regardless of the matchup that many dogs will not win the game but cover the spread. I dont know if that makes since to anyone beside myself but I have a bad feeling about this week.
jpehl

**TheBlackCat** · 01-05-2009, 06:19 PM

Given that Carolina will 100% win, and that winning teams cover -10 50% of the time, I'd say the line is pretty fair. It would be an atrocity to humanity if Arizona beats Carolina.

**jpehl** · 01-06-2009, 12:23 AM

Just a thought but if Big ben starts for Pitt I would feel pretty comfortable taking SD +6. I dont know just a thought. Ive thought all year Pitt was overrated and some how they just keep getting it done.
jpehl

**TheBlackCat** · 01-06-2009, 04:02 AM

The Steelers have the #1 defense and are quite in line with the 2005 championship squad, perhaps with a mildly easier field of opponents (that Colts team they beat was downright scary). Their profile is far from ideal though, but "overrated" isn't a word I would use.

It seems to me the smoke-and-mirrors team may be the Titans. I am not sold on their passing attack and the Ravens are not likely to give them the big defensive plays they live-and-breathe on.

**Dinger** · 01-06-2009, 12:09 PM

I love my system picks this week.

Bal vs. Ten
My system has the Ravens at -5.5. This is a 8.5 point difference the Vegas.
This is strictly a number crunch and zero bias.
My thoughts is the Titans won alot of close games. Looks like a soft schedule. The Ravens right now are my number one ranked power rating team. Look for this game to be my pick of the week. Ravens win this game.
Take the Ravens +3.

AZ vs Car
My system has the Panthers -5. This is a 5 point difference then Vegas.
I'm a Cardinals fan and a little biased. However I do have some insight. When the Cardinals won the NFC West they took there foot off the gas pedal and went into cruise control. They could not match the intensity of the Eagles, Vikings, Patriots as these teams were fighting for there playoff lives. If you are handicapping this game, avoid looking at these games as the Cardinals didn't have much to play for except a number 3 seed instead of a number 4 seed. The Cardinals were dominating the Panthers until a fumble and sloppy tackling changed the momentum of the game. Be careful Panthers as the Cardinals have nothing to lose. The Panthers may play tight and the Cardinals will come out loose and with losts of intensity. I see this game a FG in either direction. Watch for a WR named Doucet to have a big game if Boldin can't go. Cards loaded at WR. As a fan I would love to see the Cardinals and Eagles win. NFC Championship game in Glendale...I might have to get tickets if that happens. I like and my system likes the Cards and 10 points.

Phl vs NYG
I have the Giants at -2. Only a 2 point difference then Vegas. The Eagles are on a high as they had alot of things that needed to happen just to make the playoffs. They are on cloud nine and could take this momentum into another win. Take the Eagles and the points.

SD vs Pit
I have the Steelers at -10. The actual line is -6. Pittsburgh should take care of buisiness and the Chargers run out of gas. Big Ben scares me a little in this game. I would make a small play on the Steelers at -6.

Good luck all and love the Ravens this week.

**jpehl** · 01-06-2009, 03:00 PM

Cat i agree with the 2005 resemblance. I was actually thinking that when i wrote the post. Im just not feeling Ben right now and i have yet to figure out SD. So i probably want touch that game. Anyway you look at it its a tough week.
jpehl

**woodee12** · 01-06-2009, 07:02 PM

I am looking at a ML parlay with the Giants and Carolina.

Or a lease with them, but I like the SU wins of both better as I think the Cards can hang for a bit.

I have Pitt to win the AFC at 2-1 so i am staying off that game.

Gotta look at Baltimore with the points and alos the under on that one as i easily see it being 17-10 or something around there.

**widestrides** · 01-06-2009, 09:39 PM

As one poster in another forum said:

"The big boys are coming to play this week. All the children will be exposed."

That may be true for all but Baltimore. They belong in the big boys category, but I still think Tenny will beat them and that will end the run of the rookie coaches and QBs. And it was a damn good one. Not knocking them. Just too much to ask for them to go very deep in the playoffs, especially on the road every week.

Hate to sound like a square, but I like:

Titans
Giants
Blitzburgh

Maybe Carolina/Zona over depending on field conditions. Cards might be slowed by natural grass, especially if it is wet and soft.

**jpehl** · 01-06-2009, 10:41 PM

Man i have a feeling one of them gets the boot this weekend. Now if my damn crystal ball would work.
jpehl

**The Boys** · 01-07-2009, 07:50 AM

pitt...........goodbye sdc...........an average 8-8 team will not like the travel or the weather..........love pitt @ -6........this should go to -7 by game time???

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