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Dragon1952's NFL picks -Week 6

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  • Dragon1952's NFL picks -Week 6

    19-6 on initial posted Sunday NFL picks (20-5 if you count the Minnesota over St Louis pick ), 19-8 overall (0-2 on added plays)

    Week 6 - (lines taken from the current odds at www.sports.com)
    Top Play -
    Philadelphia -14 @ Oakland - The 1-4 Raiders have been out-scored 96-16 over their last 3 games, losing by 20, 23 and 37. Their only TD during that span was a 3 play, 15 yd drive. They are coming off of a 44-7 pasting by the NY Giants. They are only averaging 191 YPG of offense over 5 games, while giving up 382 YPG. They are giving up 160 YPG, and are -4 in TO ratio. Their biggest weapon on offense is RB Michael Bush with 42 rushes for 157 yds (3.7 ypc average) and 2 TD's. QB JaMarcus Russell has only completed 42% of his attempts for 606 yds, and 1 TD to 4 INT's, for a QB rating of 47.1. Out of 32 NFL teams, they are 31st in total defense and 32nd in total offense. The Eagles are averaging a little over 32 pts per game, and are a +5 in TO ratio. They have not given up more than 14 pts to any team not named 'The New Orleans Saints'. They have weapons galore....McNabb, Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek. Even though they have only played 4 games, they are 8th in total offense and 3rd in total defense. The 3-1 Eagles are coming off of a 19 pt win over Tampa Bay, and all 3 of their wins have been by 19 ots or more.
    Houston +5 @ Cincinnati - The 4-1 Bengals are coming off of 3 straight, very tough, divisional games (all last second 3 pt wins, with one in OT), including a huge, emotional win over the Ravens last week in which the defense played their hearts out for their grief-stricken coach. They've got 2 non-division games before their bye week, and then have to psyche up for Baltimore and Pittsburgh again. Not sure they can get quite as 'up' for this non-divisional match-up with the Texans. The 5 Bengal games have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3 and 3 so it's not like they are blowing anybody away, and they have only scored more than 23 pts once. The 2-3 Texans have been competitive in their last 4 games, going 2-2 and having a chance to win them all, and averaging 27 pts per game. In his last 4 games, QB Schaub has passed for 1252 yds, 10 TD's and just 3 INT's. Cincinnati has been tough against the pass, but Schaub, Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter may be their toughest test to date.
    New Orleans -3 s NY Giants - In this battle of undefeated's, I've got to stick with the 4-0 Saints who have now found a running game and defense to go with one of the premiere air attacks in the NFL. New Orleans is coming off of a bye, and they'll get this one at home where they are 8-2 SU since the beginning of 2008. The 2 losses were by a combined 5 pts, and included a very controversial 3 pt loss to the Vikings, who won on a last second FG, and a 2 pt loss to Carolina in the last game of the season, also on a last second FG. New Orleans was missing Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey in the Viking game, and were without Shockey and Reggie Bush in the Carolina loss, and Pierre Tomas did not appear in either game (nor did the current Saint defense!). The Saints have won all 4 games this year by 14 or more, and, unlike past years, have been extremely strong in the 4th Q, outscoring opponents 45-2 in the last 15 minutes. They are 3rd in total offense and 6th in total defense. The Giants are 2nd in offense and 1st in defense, but we will have to keep in mind that their last 3 opponents (TB, KC and OAK) are a combined 1-14 on the year, and, remember that the only team they have faced this year with a semblance of an offense was Dallas, who rushed for 251 yds and hung 31 pts on them (albeit a Cowboy loss).
    Pittsburgh -14 vs Cleveland - The 3-2 Steelers could very easily be undefeated as their 2 losses have both come on last second plays. They blew a 10 pt 4th Q lead at Chicago, and then blew a 14 pt 4th Q lead at Cincinnati. They are coming off a rather uninspiring 8 pt road win over Detroit, but they should be getting Troy Polamalu back for this one, which should help the pass defense greatly. The 1-4 Browns have only scored 3 offensive TD's all year, are averaging just 142 yds passing per game, and are a -5 in TO ratio. Since they won't be able to run on the Steelers, and will likely be playing from behind anyway, look for a couple of turnovers from INT prone QB Derek Anderson who has 5 INT's to just 1 TD pass, and an even worse QB rating (39) than JaMarcus Russell. The Browns are giving up 170 yds per game rushing, and Roethlisberger is completing nearly 74% of his passes this year, so Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball at will by land or air. Last year's meeting in Pittsburgh was a 31-0 Steeler win in a game that Roethlisberger had to leave after suffering a concussion late in the 2nd Q , so maybe a little payback in mind?
    Minnesota -3 vs Baltimore - After facing 3 cupcake defenses, the 3-2 Ravens are faltering a bit with 2 straight losses against New England and Cincinnati. After scoring 31 pts or more in their 3 wins, they've managed just 21 and 14 the last 2. Now they may face their toughest test to date, on the road at 5-0 Minnesota, who are averaging 31 pts per game with Brett Favre at the helm. This will probably be a fairly close game, but I still like the home team Vikings to win by at least a FG, as they are riding a huge crest of momentum coming into this game.

  • #2
    Correction:
    Phil/Oak - They are giving up 160 YPG rushing , and are -4 in TO ratio.

    Comment


    • #3
      Yes steelers are getting Troy back but they lost DE Aaron Smith for the season. Pitt just 1-4 ats giving up too many points in the last qtr. Maybe they can finally put somebody away and if they can it should be the browns who they have beaten 11 str8.

      Good Luck Dragon
      good luck

      Comment


      • #4
        Don't Blunder, Play the Under

        I like your picks "Dragon1952" except for HOU/CIN. I think CIN will cover. But that's why they play the game. I also like the Under for the Jets game. That Noreaster will continue to rain on that parade, bogging down both teams.

        -R.

        Comment


        • #5
          I like your Steelers and Vikings picks. My bets this week:

          Vikings-3
          Steelers-14
          Chiefs+6
          Seahawks-3
          Bears+3
          Broncos+3 ½ LVSC opened at SD-6. I’m still taking the Broncos.

          Comment


          • #6
            Good Luck--

            I am going with:

            TB +3
            Cinnci -3 (on the buy)
            Pitt -13 (bought 1/2)


            10 point tease:

            NYG +13.5
            Jets pk
            pats +1

            Comment


            • #7
              2-3 for the week
              Wow....2nd week in a row I'm getting killed by blown leads and 1 point spread losses. Last week it was New England and Carolina, and this week it was Minnesota and Pittsburgh.
              Minnesota blew a 17 pt 4th Q lead and won by just 2. Pittsburgh forced 4 TO's, out-yarded Cleveland 543-197, and gave up just 7 offensive pts, but turned the ball over 4 times themselves, and gave up a 98 yd KO return to miss the spread by just 1.
              I have no comments on the Philly game, except to say what a pathetic performance by the Eagles in all phases of the game, and the Raider defense was awesome.

              Comment


              • #8
                Who do you like tonight?

                I have denver +10.5 to complete a teaser, but I REALLY like SD to win this game SU too.

                I think SD comes out inspired tonight and get a huge game from LT.

                Close game but SD wins.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Lots of Baths

                  I took a bath this weekend on account of the Eagles. Lots of people did. I picked them for my Survivor pool too. Wait 'till next year, Grrrrrr.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Who knew!

                    Originally posted by Riker
                    I took a bath this weekend on account of the Eagles. Lots of people did. I picked them for my Survivor pool too. Wait 'till next year, Grrrrrr.

                    I mean to say, I was going to favor them, even before I read your picks Dragon1952. It was an "obvious" pick.

                    I only blame OAK's shut-down defense. (Who knew!)

                    -R.

                    Comment

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