Dragon1952's NFL picks -Week 7

[dragon1952]

21-9 on initial posted Sunday NFL picks. 21-11 overall (0-2 on added plays).
2-3 last week, and just 5-5 the past 2 weeks so be careful. My dog picks have been pretty good so far. I couldn't find my Week 1-2 picks, but Week 3-6 my dogs have gone 6-1 ATS and 5 have won SU.

Kansas City +5 vs San Diego - Opened at +6, now down to +5. The Chargers have to be the most overrated team in the NFL, and still living on their laurels of past years in the eyes of the public. And the odds makers prey on it. They are now 3-9 ATS in their last 12 regular season games. Against the Chiefs, they are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Kansas City plays the Chargers tough, and the Charger defense isn't stopping anyone this year. Arrowhead is a very tough venue, and the Chiefs are playing hard and coming off of their 1st win of the season. Should be a close game, and a SU Chief win wouldn't shock me in the least.
New Orleans -6.5 @ Miami - The Saints are at 5-0 and have won every game by at least 14 pts. Miami coming off of a bye, and prior to that a big home win against division foe the NY Jets. They've got the Jets again on deck followed by another big divisional match-up with the Pats.
Philadelphia -7 @ Washington - The Redskins sunk to a new low last week, losing a home game to the previously win-less Chiefs. Philadelphia did the same thing to the lowly Raiders. The last time the Eagles were embarrassed that way, they came back with a 28 pt win (see 2008 vs Arizona). Plus, the Redskins beat them twice last year. Payback time against a sinking team.
Indianapolis -13.5 @ St Louis - After 2 close wins, the 5-0 Colts have turned it on winning by 21, 17 and 22. The 0-6 Rams have lost 3 of their games by 19+, and have been shut out twice. Colts should get Bob Sanders back on defense.
Oakland +6 vs NY Jets - The Jets are reeling, losing their last 3 in a row, and are not playing well enough to travel 3000 miles and be favored by nearly a TD. Oakland should be fired up after posting their 2nd win last week against the Eagles. Should be a good, defensive game with another Raider win not out of the question.

[dragon1952]

I found my Week 1-2 picks. Overall for the year the dog picks are 10-2 ATS with 8 dogs winning SU. So that means the favorites are just 11-7. I guess I should stick with the dogs

[widestrides]

I like the KC/SD over because as you mention, SD defense is porous, but their O is still good and KC's D is pretty bad also.

I also like Oakland, but was thinking that Miami off their bye might be able to hang with the Saints. That might be a suicidal thought but Miami really controlled the game against Peyton Manning a few weeks back but let it slip at the end. Their DBs are suspect and that could prove fatal against Brees.

I like Carolina to even up their record against the Bills with or without Edwards and I like Pitt/Minny under.

GL

[woodee12]

Like all your plays except the raiders.

One win. Make their fans quiet down aa bit, but they are still a bad team with a bad QB.

I think Sanchez and company go out west and take care of business.

[Boone Moone]

Gotta agree with you Woodee on the Raiders........I don't think the Raiders won that game so much as the Eagles lost it..........They must have gotten lost coming out of the airport because they never showed up on the field.........and why did they bring their uniforms with them if they didn't feel like suiting up?...........They stunk.

Now you've got this character Seymour of the Raiders stating that the Raiders will be in the playoffs this season.........Yeah OK, and Tinkerbell flew into my bedroom last night.........

I think the Jets go back to the running game here with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington and run the Raiders right out of Oakland.........I could be wrong and Sanchez has looked horrible lately, but the Raiders defense sucks against the run.............Jets 31-10.

Nice job so far Dragon.............Good Luck to you guys.

[red raider 84]

Boone, hate to, but got to agree with you on the raiders. Man, its a shame about Russell. I can see why they took him because he looked so good at LSU. Then they get McFadden and you think this team is headed in the right direction. There defense is really bad and I think the Jets give a better effort this week and win big. But of course, everytime I spout off about a pro team the opposite usually happens and Dragon is very hot right now. Good luck to all!!! RR84

[Boone Moone]

It all really started when Jon Gruden left and then the Raiders drafted a guy named Michael Huff instead of a kid from Oklahoma named Adrian Peterson..........but that's a whole other story for some other day......GL.

[dragon1952]

Well, my only defense is that teams sometimes do get better as the season goes on. I don't think the Raiders are quite as bad as they seem. They did play San Diego pretty tough in the opener, so they have been competitive enough to win in half their games. The Jets are the weakest team they will have faced, besides the Chiefs. The Jets have some issues they are dealing with. Sanchez is slumping, Cotchery is out, they are breaking in a new WR and are dealing with some injuries on defense (CB Lito Shepard and DT Kris Jenkins). Plus, they've got a HUGE revenge game against Miami next week. They circled this one immediately after that loss 2 weeks ago. Rex Ryan was extremely upset with that game and made some comment like, 'it won't be over until we get Miami again'. I expected the Jets to come out and blow the Bills away after that Miami game. Usually when the coaches are pissed, you get a much better performance the next time out. But they stunk it up again, and now Miami looms next week.
The passing match-up for both teams is bad, and the rushing match-ups are good. So you would expect both teams to pound the ball, which often leads to the clock running and lower scoring games. Boone mentions that the Jets will go back to the running game and run the Raiders out of Oakland. Well actually they tried that last week against Buffalo when they rushed 40 times for 318 yds, and the result was a 16-13 OT loss.
I guess I'm hoping for a similar game. I think the Jets will just want to get out of there with any kind of win and get ready for Miami next week.
Which, if you think about it, is likely what happened to Philly last week. Normally I look at that stuff, but I was too blinded by the match-up. Philadelphia comes to Oakland with Washington, NY Giants and Dallas the next 3 games? Stupid, stupid pick by me to take the Eagles minus 2 TD's in that situation.

[Boone Moone]

C'mon Dragonman, as hot as you've been -- you've got no reason to defend ANY of your picks dude..........as a matter of fact, I hope you're right and I'm wrong -- in hopes that my dreaded boys could eek out another win !!!

You and anybody familiar with me know that I rarely indulge on Raider games anyway, and I won't have a dime on them this week, especially with so many other good-valued games on the board..........Good Luck either way man, and keep up the good work !!!

[hart attack]

What about the colts -7 1H ? If the game gets to halftime and the score is like 20-10 everyone will be talking about how tough the Rams are hanging, and that is being down 10.

I see Manning carving up that horrid secondary at will. Maybe they let off the gas in 2H allowing possible back door cover but I can't see Rams staying close with Manning pushing the action.

[dragon1952]

Boone....sorry for getting defensive...no worries mate

hart attack....yeah, like that -7 1H!

[garister]

BOONE wrote-
and I won't have a dime on them this week, especially with so many other good-valued games on the board.

so what do u think is better value?

U never post your plays anymore, whats up?

Lets hear it.

Good Luck Dragon1952 they look solid as always.(Is that your birth year?)

[dragon1952]

Yes....birth year (year of the dragon). I'm an old fart

[normcash]

Waddya mean, you're only four years older than me so you're still a young man.

[dragon1952]

Thanks, sonny