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OK....let's try this again.
27-13 on initial posted NFL picks, 1-4 on added plays. No more added plays!
A tough loss on Monday Night, due to some very bizarre circumstances, to finish 3-2 for the week. If the Saints just kneel down they likely run the clock out and win by 11. Instead they run it 3 times, the 1st time resulting in an injured player which negated Atlanta's final time out. The 2nd time the Falcons kill the clock with their remaining time out, the 3rd time a fumble giving Atlanta the ball back at mid-field with 1:30 left. The Saints were only able to run about 20 seconds off the clock. Very stupid play calling.
Anyway, on to Week 9. The dogs may be back after covering 8 of 13, and winning 5 SU in Week 8.
Washington +10 @ Atlanta - Atlanta likely played their best game on Monday and lost a tough one. They had to be sky high for that one with a chance to gain ground on the division leading Saints. Now they have another big divisional road game at Carolina on deck, with Washington in the middle. The Redskins are coming off of a bye, and are not happy campers. They have been playing decent defense and have not lost by more than 10 yet. They are giving up an average of just 283 ypg. The Falcon defense was fired up for the Saints and played better than they have been. I just can't see them getting as high for this game and will expect the Redskins to be ready to play.
Baltimore -3 @ Cincinnati - I'm sure the Ravens have been looking forward to this one. Last meeting, Cincinnati defense played their hearts out for their grief stricken DC who had lost his wife a day earlier, and Carson Palmer hit Andre Caldwell with 22 secs left to pull out the 3 pt win. Cincinnati followed that emotional performance with an 11 pt home loss to Houston. And then dominated in another emotional game vs Benson's old team, the Bears. They've had the bye week to come back down, but can they get sky high again? Baltimore got back on track last week with a dominating performance over a very good Denver team last week after their bye. I'll repeat this from my write-up on Baltimore last week...basically, "Since the beginning of 2008 (the Flacco era), the Ravens are 9-2, both SU and ATS, as favorites overall, with all 9 of those wins coming by 14 pts or more". They continued that trend with the 23 pt win over Denver, so are now 10-2 both SU and ATS as favorites, winning all 10 games by 14+ pts. Look for another inspired effort from the Baltimore defense in this revenge game for a piece of 1st place at stake.
Houston +9 @ Indianapolis - The Texans have won 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5 to get to 5-3 on the season. They are 3-1 on the road. Since their opening day loss to the Jets, Houston has averaged a healthy 27 pts per game, with Schaub throwing for an average of 310 ypg, with 16 TD's and just 6 INT's. Houston played Indy tough last year, blowing a 27-10 4th Q lead in the 1st meeting to lose by 4, and then losing by 6 on the road in another competitive game. And those games were with Sage Rosenfels at QB. 4 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by 6 pts or less.
After winning 4 in a row by 17+ pts, the Colts settled for a 4 pt win over visiting San Francisco last week. Even though this is a divisional game, the Colts have a nice 2.5 game cushion over the Texans with their old nemesis the New England Pats on deck, who could end up being their main competition for home field advantage in the AFC. They wouldn't possibly look past a team they are 13-1 SU against since 2002 would they? Nah!
Arizona +3 @ Chicago - The Bears got a much needed win last week over Cleveland, but relied mainly on the running game. Cutler was just 17 of 30 for 225 yds, 0 TD's and 1 INT. In his last 3 games he has thrown just 3 TD's to 6 INT's. Their OL is terrible at run blocking as nearly half of their 654 rushing yds have come against just 2 lousy teams (Cleveland and Detroit). And Cutler has accounted for nearly 100 of those 654 yds. Arizona is 3-0 on the road so far, including a road win over the Giants, and have yet to lose 2 in a row. I think they bounce back from a terrible performance and win SU here.
Seattle -10 vs Detroit - There were several possibilities for this last pick....Pittsburgh -3 at Denver, San Diego +4.5 at NY Giants, and Seattle over Detroit. The Seahawks got called out this week by their head coach. A couple token releases to make sure everyone got the idea. Detroit, 27th against the pass and 21st against the run, couldn't even handle St Louis at home last week. The Lions managed just 289 yds of offense and 10 pts against the 27th ranked team in overall defense (24th against the pass and 28th against the run). The Rams had been giving up close to 400 yds and 30 ppg against everyone else. This looks like a get well game for Seattle, especially with RB Kevin Smith and WR Calvin Johnson at less than 100% for the Lions. The Seahawks have a 28-0 home win vs St Louis and a 41-0 thrashing of Jacksonville as proof that they can handel a 10 pt spread against the Lions.
27-13 on initial posted NFL picks, 1-4 on added plays. No more added plays!
A tough loss on Monday Night, due to some very bizarre circumstances, to finish 3-2 for the week. If the Saints just kneel down they likely run the clock out and win by 11. Instead they run it 3 times, the 1st time resulting in an injured player which negated Atlanta's final time out. The 2nd time the Falcons kill the clock with their remaining time out, the 3rd time a fumble giving Atlanta the ball back at mid-field with 1:30 left. The Saints were only able to run about 20 seconds off the clock. Very stupid play calling.
Anyway, on to Week 9. The dogs may be back after covering 8 of 13, and winning 5 SU in Week 8.
Washington +10 @ Atlanta - Atlanta likely played their best game on Monday and lost a tough one. They had to be sky high for that one with a chance to gain ground on the division leading Saints. Now they have another big divisional road game at Carolina on deck, with Washington in the middle. The Redskins are coming off of a bye, and are not happy campers. They have been playing decent defense and have not lost by more than 10 yet. They are giving up an average of just 283 ypg. The Falcon defense was fired up for the Saints and played better than they have been. I just can't see them getting as high for this game and will expect the Redskins to be ready to play.
Baltimore -3 @ Cincinnati - I'm sure the Ravens have been looking forward to this one. Last meeting, Cincinnati defense played their hearts out for their grief stricken DC who had lost his wife a day earlier, and Carson Palmer hit Andre Caldwell with 22 secs left to pull out the 3 pt win. Cincinnati followed that emotional performance with an 11 pt home loss to Houston. And then dominated in another emotional game vs Benson's old team, the Bears. They've had the bye week to come back down, but can they get sky high again? Baltimore got back on track last week with a dominating performance over a very good Denver team last week after their bye. I'll repeat this from my write-up on Baltimore last week...basically, "Since the beginning of 2008 (the Flacco era), the Ravens are 9-2, both SU and ATS, as favorites overall, with all 9 of those wins coming by 14 pts or more". They continued that trend with the 23 pt win over Denver, so are now 10-2 both SU and ATS as favorites, winning all 10 games by 14+ pts. Look for another inspired effort from the Baltimore defense in this revenge game for a piece of 1st place at stake.
Houston +9 @ Indianapolis - The Texans have won 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5 to get to 5-3 on the season. They are 3-1 on the road. Since their opening day loss to the Jets, Houston has averaged a healthy 27 pts per game, with Schaub throwing for an average of 310 ypg, with 16 TD's and just 6 INT's. Houston played Indy tough last year, blowing a 27-10 4th Q lead in the 1st meeting to lose by 4, and then losing by 6 on the road in another competitive game. And those games were with Sage Rosenfels at QB. 4 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by 6 pts or less.
After winning 4 in a row by 17+ pts, the Colts settled for a 4 pt win over visiting San Francisco last week. Even though this is a divisional game, the Colts have a nice 2.5 game cushion over the Texans with their old nemesis the New England Pats on deck, who could end up being their main competition for home field advantage in the AFC. They wouldn't possibly look past a team they are 13-1 SU against since 2002 would they? Nah!
Arizona +3 @ Chicago - The Bears got a much needed win last week over Cleveland, but relied mainly on the running game. Cutler was just 17 of 30 for 225 yds, 0 TD's and 1 INT. In his last 3 games he has thrown just 3 TD's to 6 INT's. Their OL is terrible at run blocking as nearly half of their 654 rushing yds have come against just 2 lousy teams (Cleveland and Detroit). And Cutler has accounted for nearly 100 of those 654 yds. Arizona is 3-0 on the road so far, including a road win over the Giants, and have yet to lose 2 in a row. I think they bounce back from a terrible performance and win SU here.
Seattle -10 vs Detroit - There were several possibilities for this last pick....Pittsburgh -3 at Denver, San Diego +4.5 at NY Giants, and Seattle over Detroit. The Seahawks got called out this week by their head coach. A couple token releases to make sure everyone got the idea. Detroit, 27th against the pass and 21st against the run, couldn't even handle St Louis at home last week. The Lions managed just 289 yds of offense and 10 pts against the 27th ranked team in overall defense (24th against the pass and 28th against the run). The Rams had been giving up close to 400 yds and 30 ppg against everyone else. This looks like a get well game for Seattle, especially with RB Kevin Smith and WR Calvin Johnson at less than 100% for the Lions. The Seahawks have a 28-0 home win vs St Louis and a 41-0 thrashing of Jacksonville as proof that they can handel a 10 pt spread against the Lions.
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