DINGERS NFL PLAYOFF WILDCARD PICKS

[Dinger]

Looking at a huge weekend!!!



My first 5 Star ***** pick of the year.
Never missed a 5* pick, however only ever did it twice..2-0...but very rare I make a 5*.

5* GB +2.5 (Dingers system has GB winning by 9.5...12 point difference)

3* DAL -4 (I have Cowboys winning by 11...7 point differnece then Vegas)

3* NE -3.5 (I have Patriots -10.5...another 7 point difference then LV)

3* NYJ +2.5 (Jets win by 4...6.5 point difference then Vegas)

I'm pretty confident with these picks. I feel 3-1 or 4-0 weekend.

[papachippy]

Dinger,

Like the majority of your picks, especially your 5*.

I think you might run into some trouble with your J-E-T-S pick. I know Cincy looked like pure ass last week, but I can't fathom an NFL team laying another similar egg @ home in a playoff game.

There's usually an ebb and flow to NFL action whereby a quality team that perfroms horrendously one week has the tendency to bounce back the following week. And there is usually line value based off that dreadful experience the previous week. I think that situation applies perfectly in this situation. Cincy has been strong at home this year going 6-2, with one loss being that fluke win by Denver in the last seconds.

I'm strongly backing a battle tested Cincy team at home verse a rookie QB led Jets team who made the playoffs by winning their last two games against teams who really hadn't had alot to gain by winning. I believe there is strong line value in the 2.5. I see Cincy winning by 8-10 pts.

Either way GLTU sir. Hope to see you at the window.

"Papachippy knows when to make his move."

[Dinger]

Good points stated about the Bengals, again my system is a numbers crunch based on box scores (Zero bias). My system likes the J-E-T-S defense to stifle the Bengals offense.

I'm curious if anyone makes plays strictly on there system and who do they like this weekend?

[Krichinsky]

Dinger,
I think you mentioned earlier this year about not having a
factor for weather, so your system can never be and IMHO
the only thing to consider. In fact, seeing your posts, I know
you still add some logic into each weeks picks.

I haven't looked deeply into this week yet, but I'm thinking
that the extra travel for GB and Phili can not be a positive.
I also see Mike Zimmer finding a way to adjust to what NYJ
did this past week and in turn seeing NYJ try and win with
the same plays.
At least I hope....the Bungals cost me big this past week.

[Dinger]

Interesting, I could develop a small point adjustment based on miles traveled the week prior and the week upcoming. Maybe next season.

Both teams are playing in the same weather conditions. I'm not sure how to develop a formula that would adjust the spread to teams that are acclimated to the cold or hot weather conditions. What temperture do I make the adjustment or weather condition.

I'm always looking at improvements. Might be 10 years to find a solid formula that predicts 55-70%.

I'm 10-4 on four/five star picks which is a 8-9 point difference 4* and ten or more point difference for 5* picks (LV point spread vs. Dingers system spread).

I wish I could simplify my injury formula which takes two hours to calculate weekly. I no longer calculate, but will not pick the game as a top pick if glaring injuries are to key players.

[Dinger]

2-0 Saturday

Looked so promising.

0-2 sunday.

Missed my 5* pick. Looks like I wasn't the only one on the GB bandwagon as the line moved from AZ-2.5 to GB -2.5.

Thats a huge line movement. I thought GB was going to pull it out in OT. Looked like a facemask on the last play to me.

[Boone Moone]

There was indeed that hand to the face of Aaron Rodgers at the end of the last play that could have been called, but they let it go, Thank God.........but that play also was the same play the Patriots beat my Raiders with during the now famous "Tuck Rule" game............I mean really, what's the difference ?................Nothing, that's what.......but it was Da Raidas !!!!!

Another play that went uncorrected by the announcing goofs was the play in which a punt by New England hit the back of a Baltimore Ravens player and was touched but not quite controlled by the Patriots before the player slid out-of-bounds..............The idiots at the microphone kept suggesting that Baltimore challenge the call on the grounds that the Patriot player never had possesion before going out of bounds...............Hello !!!!.......the Raven player never had possesion either -- it hit him in the back.........So the ball goes to the player that last touched the ball, or the team that last had possesion !!!!.........Get it?...........Please tell me I'm not the only one that was yelling at my TV set calling these play-by-play clowns "Stupid".

[dragon1952]

I told my wife at the time that it's not like the new pass rule where you have to control the ball to the ground

[dragon1952]

I think the announcers have just had to explain that so many times this year that they just got a little confused.

[Dinger]

I'm confused on that one. The ball hits the helmet (Live ball). I thought to get posession you have to control the ball before it goes out of bounds, which NE never did.

My thinking if a punt hits Baltimore player and rolls out of bounds, Raven would retain the ball. So in order for NE to retain the ball is to control it before it goes out of bounds, not be the last one to touch it.
I could be wrong on this one.

I admit I missed the game and saw only highlight twice.

[Boone Moone]

The Ravens never controlled the punt, so the ball goes back to the team that last had true possession......Jeff, am I wrong here?................BTW, here it is -- some 7 years later, and I'm still not over that "Tuck Rule" game !!!!

[Dinger]

Tuck rule doesn't apply here, because the ball never hit the ground.

What's strange is this.

It could have been a fumble return.

It could have been a interception if ruled hand was going forward

how about this one...

It could have been ruled a punt as Rogers kicked the ball into the air.