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Nothing the last two days...but an overnight for Tues:
525 Hofstra -3
The line is -3 to -3.5 this morning. I would not lay more then then 3.
Nothing else I can see yet.
As always I will post any updates throughout the day on my blog and twitter. Also overnight will be posted when Pinnacle posts there numbers...I hope this helps out since
there are at least 5 books open around that time.
Ive spoken before about the negativity and dysfunctional personalities that one is exposed to daily at the poker tables. So its always comforting to get a nice positive email that reinforces my belief that there are positive normal individuals out there:
An email:
"Hi Rick
1) Your blog is not only full of great stuff on the NCAAB and NHL (and the stock trades, but I don't have the capital for those!) but also is a really great read. Its the best gambling one I have come across. I'm from the UK but will be in Vegas at the end of may and will try to stop in at the bellagio to say hi (and get you a drink with the winnings I've made from the blog!)
2) You make a lot of reference to public money. I've got some experience of betting on US sports (but mostly the baseball as that's where I've found it easiest to get an edge/make profits in the past) - but is there an easy way to get the figures of what the public is betting on the web somewhere? You make a lot of references to exact percentages that the public is favouring on a game - and it does strike me as being a good play to "fade" the public as you guys would say, I am a contrarian mainly in what I specialise in (Soccer).
3) (I realise that's more than a couple now!) It strikes me (I haven't been reading for long so its a very small sample size) that a lot of the decent size dogs you are betting in the NCAAB are giving the favs a tough time and quite often winning - which appeals to me in 2 senses I guess. i) Teasers on the big dogs (which is something I really know nothing about although I just about understand what that sentence means!) and ii) moneyline betting on the dogs. I was wondering if you have the figures for this season as to how many of the dogs +7 or more have actually ended up as the winners of the game and I'm sure I can find historical prices somewhere to see whether it would have been a worthwhile exercise betting the moneylines as well (although a lot more variable and of course opens up the possibility of long losing runs).
At the end of the NCAAB season I'd like to send a donation to (and correct me if I am wrong here but you don't strike me as a guy who either needs the money or wants financial reward for sharing his picks) a charity of your choice - so if you could let me know where you would like that to go, i'd be happy to do so, as an anonymous donor.
Thanks again and best of luck
My Response:
The public betting percentages can be found in a variety of places. I use sportsinsight...and for the most part they are fine. I have noticed from time to
time a serious lag in the updating but it happens infrequently. Covers also has consensus date I look at but its based upon opinion as opposed to actual betting. In addition the various online books provide that on there sites.
Real time is of course best....but I think you can get by with 15 min delayed and not miss much.
As to teasers I dont bet those. The vig is much higher and my goal is to lay the less vig I can. Typically I do this one of 3 ways: I have an out laying -105 on the overnights, I also use matchbook when I can, and finally I like to get no vig bets at the poker tables( there is a caveat to that...some poker players are bad winners and bad losers)
The money line though is a different story. A handicapper that I respect mentioned to me that he feels its best on short dogs in college hoops to bet the money line instead of taking +1 or +2. And after giving that some thought I agree.
Please...no donations...That donation button was put on when I first started the blog 5 years ago...and I have been meaning to take it off. A drink would be fine when you are here in Vegas. Look forward to meeting you.
Thanks for the email
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays
525 Hofstra -3
The line is -3 to -3.5 this morning. I would not lay more then then 3.
Nothing else I can see yet.
As always I will post any updates throughout the day on my blog and twitter. Also overnight will be posted when Pinnacle posts there numbers...I hope this helps out since
there are at least 5 books open around that time.
Ive spoken before about the negativity and dysfunctional personalities that one is exposed to daily at the poker tables. So its always comforting to get a nice positive email that reinforces my belief that there are positive normal individuals out there:
An email:
"Hi Rick
1) Your blog is not only full of great stuff on the NCAAB and NHL (and the stock trades, but I don't have the capital for those!) but also is a really great read. Its the best gambling one I have come across. I'm from the UK but will be in Vegas at the end of may and will try to stop in at the bellagio to say hi (and get you a drink with the winnings I've made from the blog!)
2) You make a lot of reference to public money. I've got some experience of betting on US sports (but mostly the baseball as that's where I've found it easiest to get an edge/make profits in the past) - but is there an easy way to get the figures of what the public is betting on the web somewhere? You make a lot of references to exact percentages that the public is favouring on a game - and it does strike me as being a good play to "fade" the public as you guys would say, I am a contrarian mainly in what I specialise in (Soccer).
3) (I realise that's more than a couple now!) It strikes me (I haven't been reading for long so its a very small sample size) that a lot of the decent size dogs you are betting in the NCAAB are giving the favs a tough time and quite often winning - which appeals to me in 2 senses I guess. i) Teasers on the big dogs (which is something I really know nothing about although I just about understand what that sentence means!) and ii) moneyline betting on the dogs. I was wondering if you have the figures for this season as to how many of the dogs +7 or more have actually ended up as the winners of the game and I'm sure I can find historical prices somewhere to see whether it would have been a worthwhile exercise betting the moneylines as well (although a lot more variable and of course opens up the possibility of long losing runs).
At the end of the NCAAB season I'd like to send a donation to (and correct me if I am wrong here but you don't strike me as a guy who either needs the money or wants financial reward for sharing his picks) a charity of your choice - so if you could let me know where you would like that to go, i'd be happy to do so, as an anonymous donor.
Thanks again and best of luck
My Response:
The public betting percentages can be found in a variety of places. I use sportsinsight...and for the most part they are fine. I have noticed from time to
time a serious lag in the updating but it happens infrequently. Covers also has consensus date I look at but its based upon opinion as opposed to actual betting. In addition the various online books provide that on there sites.
Real time is of course best....but I think you can get by with 15 min delayed and not miss much.
As to teasers I dont bet those. The vig is much higher and my goal is to lay the less vig I can. Typically I do this one of 3 ways: I have an out laying -105 on the overnights, I also use matchbook when I can, and finally I like to get no vig bets at the poker tables( there is a caveat to that...some poker players are bad winners and bad losers)
The money line though is a different story. A handicapper that I respect mentioned to me that he feels its best on short dogs in college hoops to bet the money line instead of taking +1 or +2. And after giving that some thought I agree.
Please...no donations...That donation button was put on when I first started the blog 5 years ago...and I have been meaning to take it off. A drink would be fine when you are here in Vegas. Look forward to meeting you.
Thanks for the email
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com
Twitter: Rickjsportplays
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