Looking at a few key stats for betting NFL

[dragon1952]

Excerpts from article by The National Football Post
1. Yards per play: A popular metric among the stat geeks (guilty as charged) and professional bettors, yards per play average is an excellent indicator of an offense’s explosiveness and big-play ability. The top-ten teams in yards per play average from last season combined to go 98-62 straight-up (.613) and 84-71-5 (.542) against the spread. Conversely, the bottom-ten teams in YPPA from 2011 went 65-95 (.406) straight-up and 74-78-8 ATS (.487). Also note that the last three Super Bowl winners (Giants, Packers & Saints) all ranked in the top-7 in YPPA in their respective championship seasons.

2. Fumbles lost: We explained on Tuesday the devastating consequences that come from being a team with a poor turnover differential. But within the turnover analysis there’s still more work to be done. Most notably is the fact that fumbles are more costly than interceptions (more on this coming soon). For now, we went back over the last three seasons (2009-2011) and examined the straight-up and ATS records for the top-five (least amount of fumbles lost) and bottom-five (most amount of fumbles lost) NFL teams (per season) in fumbles lost.

Top 5 teams by season since ‘09: 156-84 SU (.650) and 135-99-6 ATS (.577)
Bottom 5 teams by season since ‘09: 104-136 SU (.433) and 100-137-3 ATS (.422)

The five best teams of 2011? That would be the 49ers, Saints, Patriots, Bills and Packers.

The Giants won the Super Bowl on the strength of a +20 sack differential, which tied for best in the NFL.

3. Sack differential: Take a team’s total number of sacks and subtract their total number of sacks allowed. Due to its simplicity as well as the myriad of things this number tells us, sack differential is without question my favorite of all the nerd stats. I plan on going more in-depth with this metric in the coming weeks, but for now, let’s compare the top-five and bottom-five NFL teams in sack differential from the 2011 season:

Top 5 teams: 46-34 SU (.575) and 41-34-5 ATS (.547)
Bottom 5 teams: 30-50 SU (.375) and 36-41-3 ATS (.468)

Top 5 teams: Giants, Bengals, Eagles, Ravens & Raiders
Bottom 5 teams: Seahawks, Bears, Rams, Jaguars & Cardinals

[Carpet]

Great information Dragon,

I see that the Bears are in the bottom 5 and figured as such.

Nov 20 QB Jay Cutler breaks his thumb after the bears had won 5 games in a row, Then the Bears inserted Hanie at QB and things went from bad to worse in a hurry.

Dec 4 RB Matt Forte goes down with a injury season over for forte and the Bears.

I think this year will be a very good year for the Bears, if they can protect Cutler and keep him healthy they will be able to employ all the weapons they have on offense.

LB Urlacher is going to be the real question mark on this defense, can he stay healthy? My money says no.

Looking at the Bears coming into this season I see no reason they will not qualify for a playoff spot even coming out of a tough division.

[dragon1952]

I like the Bears this year also. I understand they are shit-canning the 7 step drop which should take some pressure off of their crappy OL (and hopefully Cutler)

[Taxman]

Dragon, very good information as always.

Do you know if the yards per play includes the negative play related to a sack?

I am also revamping my comprehensive NFL database (I hope to have it completed by the end of August, still have a lot of hours to work on it).

There are a few ATS issues I am looking at, such as first time QB starters and rookies 1st start, along with rookies on the road.

In addition to trying to track the first scoring play of the game to determine if there is an impact on results of the game (this would be related to in-game betting, as it has become popular over the last few years, including some hand-held devices that are used in Las Vegas sportsbooks).

Let me know if there are any other scenarios you might be looking for, as I probably have a column for it and will complete the population of it.

[Boone Moone]

Hope I don't jinx it, but I like the Bears chances this year as well..........Put a little on them about 40 days ago to win the NFC at 15-1 (down to 9-1 today)......and took a flyer with a SB play as well at 30-1 (down to 18-1 now).........I just thought they were playing some pretty good ball last year before Cutler went down, and Forte's injury ended their season.

Acquisitions of back-up RB Michael Bush (Raiders), QB Jason Campbell (Raiders), and Brandon Marshall should only improve them, and just yesterday they picked up highly-regarded 300lb. DT David Price as well...........It's a long season, and a tough division as well, but with a little luck, I envision a rematch of the NFC Championship Game from 2 years ago, with Green Bay facing the Bears......We'll see !!

Good Luck guys !!

[widestrides]

Dragon, very good information as always.

Do you know if the yards per play includes the negative play related to a sack?

I am also revamping my comprehensive NFL database (I hope to have it completed by the end of August, still have a lot of hours to work on it).

There are a few ATS issues I am looking at, such as first time QB starters and rookies 1st start, along with rookies on the road.

In addition to trying to track the first scoring play of the game to determine if there is an impact on results of the game (this would be related to in-game betting, as it has become popular over the last few years, including some hand-held devices that are used in Las Vegas sportsbooks).

Let me know if there are any other scenarios you might be looking for, as I probably have a column for it and will complete the population of it.

Taxman,

Do you have any trends on ATS streaks or Over/Under streaks? Is it a good idea to fade a team that has WON 2 in a row vs. the spread if they are playing a team that has LOST 2 in a row vs. the spread? Or 3 in a row? Or 4 in a row?

Or is it a good idea to go under if both teams have gone over in their last 1 or 2 or 3 in a row? Maybe on certain numbers?

[Taxman]

Taxman,

Do you have any trends on ATS streaks or Over/Under streaks? Is it a good idea to fade a team that has WON 2 in a row vs. the spread if they are playing a team that has LOST 2 in a row vs. the spread? Or 3 in a row? Or 4 in a row?

Or is it a good idea to go under if both teams have gone over in their last 1 or 2 or 3 in a row? Maybe on certain numbers?

I have all of that information.

The angles I am looking at with that combination is both teams records and putting into place the offensive and defensive rankings going into that week.

I'm hoping to have that done in a few weeks, to have ample time to discuss.

[widestrides]

I've gone back a few years and I don't find anything worth betting on as far as betting on or against an ATS streak. That is, if one team has won one in a row and the other has lost won in a row, it's basically 50/50 on who covers. Same with if one team has won two in a row and the other has lost two in a row. Same with 3s.

Pretty much the same for over/unders. Even if both teams have gone over 1 or 2 or 3 weeks in a row, it doesn't mean they will go under when they play. Nor does it mean they will continue their over streaks. And nothing to play if they have both gone under 1 or 2 or 3 weeks in a row.

There are a few spots that showed a high %, like if one team has gone over two times in a row and the other has also gone over three or four times in a row, they will go under about 57% of the time. But this is not verified and maybe cancelled out by other over streaks that continued over when the two over teams met.

Will be interested to see if you turn up anything different.

Certainly the oddsmakers will make it harder to keep betting over teams over, but then again, they are going over for a reason - their offense is hot and their defense is not!

[widestrides]

Do you have data on line movement in your dbase?

[Taxman]

No. Never took it into consideration, as the opening lines varied week to week depending upon the sources I was using.